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Was lockdown sold for a LIE? The Oxford scientist says 4,000 deaths should NOT be used


A graph shown during the prime minister's address that Britain will suffer 4,000 deaths a day through December has been "proven wrong" and "four weeks out of date," a Oxford University scientist warned.

The director of the Center for Evidence-Based Medicine, Carl Heneghan, said mathematically speaking, the document should not have been used to justify the new locking edges.

The professor also shared how coronavirus hospital admissions, cases and deaths are stalling due to measures currently in place across the country.

Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof. Chris Whitty face questions from MPs about the 4,000 deaths per day following a backlash from scientists.

Meanwhile, the UK recorded the lowest daily number of Covid infections in 14 days yesterday. On the same day, Boris Johnson desperately tried to convince Tory MPs to support a draconian second lockdown.

Health Department figures showed that 18,950 people tested positive for the disease – a 9.3 percent decrease in one week and the lowest since Monday October 19 (18,804).

There were an additional 136 coronavirus deaths in the UK – a 33.3 percent increase from the 102 laboratory-confirmed deaths recorded last week.

The PM this morning

The director of the Center for Evidence-Based Medicine, Carl Heneghan (left), mathematically said the document should not have been used to justify the new locking edges (right, the Prime Minister today).

Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof. Chris Whitty (left and right with the Prime Minister during Saturday's address to the nation) face questions from MPs about the 4,000 deaths a day following a backlash from academics

Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof. Chris Whitty (left and right with the Prime Minister during Saturday's address to the nation) face questions from MPs about the 4,000 deaths a day following a backlash from academics

But Prof. Heneghan suggested a positive note when he appeared on the Today program this morning, claiming the data showed the virus is being repulsed.

He said of the graph shown during the prime minister's address on Saturday: “Mathematically, it has now been found to be wrong, particularly the estimate of 4,000 deaths that would occur in December.

& # 39; And why is that because it's been about four weeks out of date already and Cambridge doing this in the MRC (Epidemiology) division has already provided updates that give lower estimates and whose estimates are much closer to the truth and one has a system called now-casting and forecasting that gets much closer to the correct data.

"As an example, they showed about 1,000 deaths on November 1st four weeks ago when actually only 200 actually occurred."

He added, "Admissions are shallow and deaths are starting to flatten out. I hope there will be an update to this system tomorrow on Wednesday that will give us a clear understanding of where we are going."

Prof. Heneghan also said the Liverpool R-value "is well below one at this point". He said there was a "problem" in Liverpool but cases in the city had halved and hospital admissions had "stabilized".

He continued, “They have … these bags across the country where trusts like Liverpool have gotten into trouble because more than half of the patients are Covid patients.

“But let's look at the data. The data in Liverpool shows the number of cases has fallen by around half. The approvals have now stabilized. Yes, there is a problem in Liverpool.

"But actually the level restrictions … the people in Liverpool have cut cases from around 490 a day to 260 a day – a significant drop. The R-value in Liverpool is now well below one."

Sir Patrick and Prof. Whitty are due to be dragged before the Science and Technology Selection Committee this afternoon over claims that their Saturday artwork is out of date.

Figures from Sir Patrick, the government's chief scientific advisor, suggest there will be 4,000 deaths a day by December 20th.

However, the October 9 data was compiled before the new tier system went into effect that helped fight back the virus.

Oxford University scientists said that if the forecast were correct there would be about 1,000 deaths a day now, but last week's average was 265, up from 136 yesterday.

The modeling was also based on an R-rate of 1.3 to 1.5, although the government assumed it was between 1.1 and 1.3.

The government science bureau yesterday failed to release the key to the graphic, saying "relevant articles would be published shortly".

Committee chairman Greg Clark said: "Parliament needs to be able to understand and challenge the evidence and rationale for new restrictions before Wednesday's vote."

Elsewhere in the worst public health crisis in generations:

  • In the UK, an additional 18,950 people tested positive for coronavirus – a 9.3 percent decrease per week.
  • There were 136 more deaths – up 33.3 percent from the 102 deaths recorded on the same day last week.
  • Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said 7,500 soldiers were on standby to support coronavirus efforts.
  • Retail and leisure company stocks plummeted as the stock market reacted to the prime minister's hastily published plans.
  • Rishi Sunak announced that support for the self-employed will be increased along with the vacation program.
  • Wales said its "fire break" will end on November 9th despite moving to England as divisions in Britain widened;
  • Wise experts claimed thousands of lives could have been saved if the government had been locked down earlier.

Top scientists said the infection data could be evidence that England's three-tier lockdown system is going into effect by slowing the rate of growth in the north.

It raises questions about whether Number 10 has jumped the gun with a second national shutdown SAGE warned to save Christmas.

It is because the Prime Minister insisted that cases are now so high that there is "no alternative" to month-long blanket restrictions across England. He warned that otherwise the death toll could double what it was at the previous peak.

In a statement to the Commons, he sought to ease a growing mutiny by assuring the House that the measures will legally end on December 2nd – and if they need to be extended there will be another vote.

But he was toasted by Sir Keir Starmer for refusing to lock England down for weeks while the death toll rose – before making an embarrassing U-turn.

Boris Johnson yesterday asked Tories to stick to his coronavirus strategy as he defended his plan to push England into a new national lockdown

Keir Starmer

On the Commons yesterday, Boris Johnson was toasted by Keir Starmer for refusing to lockdown England for weeks while the death toll rose – before making an embarrassing U-turn

KEIR STARMER ROASTS BORIS JOHNSON FOR IGNORING THE CIRCUIT BREAKER COUNCIL

Boris Johnson was toasted yesterday by Keir Starmer for refusing to lock England down for weeks while the death toll rose – before making an embarrassing U-turn.

In a statement to the Commons, the Prime Minister insisted that cases were now so high that there was "no alternative" to the months-long blanket restrictions across England. He warned that otherwise the death toll could double what it was at the previous peak.

But he tried to ease a growing mutiny by assuring the House that the measures will legally end on December 2nd – and if they need to be extended, there will be another vote.

The Prime Minister also stated that grants for self-employed will be increased from 40 percent of average previous earnings to 80 percent, although it is not clear if this only applies to the time of the bottleneck.

However, Sir Keir launched a bitter attack on Mr Johnson for failing to get the action started quickly.

He said the prime minister wasted 40 days calling for a "breaker" by his own scientific experts – during that time, daily deaths rose from just 11 to 326.

"On September 21, when government scientists, Sage, recommended an urgent two- to three-week hiatus, there were 11 deaths from Covid-19 and just over 4,000 Covid infections," said Sir Keir.

The Prime Minister ignored this advice for 40 days and when he finally announced a longer and deeper national lockdown on Saturday, those numbers had risen to 326 deaths per day and 22,000 Covid cases.

“That is the human cost of government inaction. The reality is that the two pillars of the Prime Minister's strategy, the £ 12 billion track and trace and regional restrictions, not only did not stop the second wave but were swept away by it.

“In every phase the Prime Minister was too slow behind the curve. At each stage, he has declined the challenge, ignored advice, and put what he hoped for over what happened.

“In every phase it is promised too much and not delivered enough. To refuse the advice of one's own scientists for 40 days has been a disastrous failure of leadership and judgment. & # 39;

The intervention came as Mr Johnson faced the wrath of Conservative MPs who are angry about the "evil" new rules. They were classified as "unimaginable" and compared to the actions of a "totalitarian regime".

Sir Keir said the Prime Minister wasted 40 days calling for a "breaker" by his own scientific experts – during that time, daily deaths rose from just 11 to 326.

"On September 21, when government scientists, Sage, recommended an urgent two- to three-week hiatus, there were 11 deaths from Covid-19 and just over 4,000 Covid infections," said Sir Keir.

The Prime Minister ignored this advice for 40 days and when he finally announced a longer and deeper national lockdown on Saturday, those numbers had risen to 326 deaths per day and 22,000 Covid cases.

“That is the human cost of government inaction. The reality is that the two pillars of the Prime Minister's strategy, the £ 12 billion track and trace and regional restrictions, not only did not stop the second wave but were swept away by it.

“In every phase the Prime Minister was too slow behind the curve. At each stage, he has declined the challenge, ignored advice, and put what he hoped for over what happened.

“In every phase it is promised too much and not delivered enough. To refuse the advice of one's own scientists for 40 days has been a disastrous failure of leadership and judgment. & # 39;

The intervention came when Mr Johnson was exposed to the wrath of Conservative MPs who were angry about the "evil" new rules. They were classified as "unimaginable" and compared to the actions of a "totalitarian regime".

A crunch vote on the lockdown plan is due on Wednesday. Dozens of Tories threaten to defy the rules. But Sir Keir has said Labor will vote with the government, which means the lockdown is likely to go through despite the Tory uprising.

Prior to the statement, spokesman Lindsay Hoyle pinpointed government leaks that prevented the news from being released to parliament first. He insisted that the perpetrator must be identified and if it is a MP they must personally apologize to the House.

Scientists and cabinet pigeons have been accused of extraordinary choreography designed to force Mr Johnson into the draconian lockdown – amid warnings that could destroy the economy.

MPs are furious at the concerted efforts to get the Prime Minister to enforce fluctuating restrictions in England from December 2 on when it was revealed that Science Chief Sir Patrick Vallance gave reporters a bloody briefing on Friday making the demands after an immediate briefing, SAGE underscored Lockdown – alongside figures suggesting more than 85,000 people could die this winter.

The bomb was assessed an hour before the Prime Minister's mighty "Quad" meeting. Michael Gove, Matt Hancock, and Rishi Sunak met around 3:30 p.m. to discuss the move.

Sir Patrick told stunned reporters that it was too late for a two-week breaker and that a four-week lockdown similar to that introduced in France was the best way to control the R number. Those attending the briefing had little doubt that national pressure would come.

In fact, Mr Johnson had still hesitated on the matter that morning when Secretary of State Dominic Raab was dispatched to defend the local "Tiers" system on the radio waves. The prime minister "even debated against himself" about whether the damage from the lockdown during the "quad" meeting would be worse than the illness.

Faced with terrible predictions from Sir Patrick and Chris Whitty, he put the wheels in motion for a month-long lockdown.

Timeline of the Prime Minister's lock decision

Friday, 7 a.m.: Foreign Minister Dominic Raab begins a round of radio interviews defending the government's "tiered" system of local lockdowns.

Friday 2.30 p.m .: Sir Patrick Vallance underscores SAGE's support for a national lockdown at a briefing with reporters, suggesting that it will be late to arrest the Spike in cases before Christmas.

Friday 3 p.m.: The posts will be published online from a SAGE meeting which revealed advisors warned ministers on October 14th that the UK could be in a more serious situation than the scientists' worst case scenario.

Friday, 3.30 p.m .: The Covid & # 39; Quad & # 39; committee, which made all major strategic decisions during the pandemic, met in the cabinet office. Mr. Johnson, Rishi Sunak, Matt Hancock and Michael Gove attended along with around 15 officials.

Early evening : Downing Street is informed that ITV Political Editor Robert Peston has received a "reading of the entire meeting," according to the Times.

10.30 p.m .: No10's plans to shut down England for at least a month have also been leaked in the Daily Mail and will be announced when the first issue of the paper comes out on Saturday.

Saturday 7 a.m.: BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg reveals that some of the information shown to the quad includes that daily deaths could exceed 4,000.

11 clock:: Boris Johnson calls an unscheduled cabinet meeting to inform angry ministers of his plans. With just a few hours left, he also calls a hastily arranged live press conference at 4 p.m. to let the nation know of his plans.

Downing Street, which was hoping to make the announcement Monday, is opening an investigation to find the source.

1.30 p.m .: The cabinet meets virtually and the Prime Minister dials in from Downing Street. It takes over an hour

3:40 pm: Broadcasters will receive a summary of the actions that Mr. Johnson will announce at the press conference following the Cabinet meeting.

6:45 pm: Boris Johnson, flanked by Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick, finally faces the late press conference and reveals the lockdown.

Within hours, the elite group's preliminary ruling was relayed to the Daily Mail and Times before the entire cabinet was informed to prevent the prime minister from changing his mind.

On Saturday morning, BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg announced details of two key documents shown to the "Quad". This is a controversial prediction that the daily death toll would reach 4,000 a day and NHS hospitals would be overwhelmed.

Since then, it has been criticized that the projection of 4,000 per day was already out of date. It was created by experts from the University of Cambridge and Public Health England, who have since revised their numbers and reduced the possible number of deaths.

Even so, both slides formed an important part of the data officially unveiled on Saturday night when a lively Mr Johnson made his announcement after calling his unsuspecting, broader cabinet.

A formal leak investigation has now been launched to find the culprit – with allegations that only 15 people attended the meeting, including Sir Patrick, Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty and NHS England chief Sir Simon Stevens.

There have even been dark threats that the police could be called in to find out who was undermining the prime minister's approach.

The fingers were turned on Mr. Gove and Mr. Hancock, who both deny being the source. Downing Street insists it was not in their best interest to have the information made public at this time.

A former cabinet minister told MailOnline that the maneuvering behind the scenes over the lock was "very strange".

They suggested that Sir Patrick's intervention was part of an effort to "bounce" the Prime Minister. & # 39; It sounds like a jump. Obviously when he let people know in advance he was trying to put a steamy head behind the idea of ​​a barrier, ”they said.

The Tory MP suggested that the events had the characteristics of a "gove-cummings" operation – an indication of the fact that the prime minister's chief adviser had previously worked for the cabinet minister. “I don't think there is any doubt about that. Gove has already proven that he is not very loyal to the Prime Minister, ”said the MP.

I was always amazed that Boris brought him in again. It was probably part of the package with Cummings.

"It's the Gove-Cummings Axis that's the problem here."

The MP said the numbers used in support of the lockdown move, including claims that there could be 4,000 deaths per day, are questionable

"The numbers do not appear to have been updated to reflect the real state of affairs," they said.

A government source told the Telegraph that Mr. Johnson had not made a final decision by the end of the quad meeting and Mr. Sunak was working to "mitigate the impact and try to focus it on the regional approach".

The source added, "When it was leaked, it became a closed deal, forcing the Prime Minister to take action."

On another turbulent day of coronavirus developments:

Boris Johnson (pictured on Downing Street yesterday) announced at a press conference Saturday night that England would be placed in another lockdown to stop the spread of the coronavirus

Boris Johnson (pictured on Downing Street yesterday) announced at a press conference on Saturday night that England would be locked down again to stop the spread of the coronavirus

Ministers warn that all bets are closed at Christmas unless the lock works

Cabinet ministers have warned that all bets are closed when families can celebrate Christmas together if Boris Johnson's national lockdown fails to curb coronavirus infection rates.

The Prime Minister's shutdown across England is slated to begin Thursday. The government's goal is to lift the blanket restrictions on December 2nd.

However, the government has not guaranteed that this will be a firm exit date, amid concerns that the closure could be extended over the festive period and even into the New Year.

Ministers believe the "delay" between the point of infection and the time people can become seriously ill could mean that deaths continue to rise even until the lockdown ends.

This could result in the draconian measures having to be maintained until early 2021 or beyond.

Mr Johnson assured MPs that he will attempt to loosen the curbs and return to the localized tiered system on December 2 after Mr Gove proposed yesterday to extend the lockdown again.

Mr Sunak tried this morning to reassure angry Tory backers by insisting that lockdowns end legally at this point.

He said the "hope and expectation" was that by then the virus would be at low enough levels to loosen the curbs, although he admitted they would continue to be checked.

However, government sources warn that the lockdown could last well into the next month if hospital stays remain high and that "all bets are closed" by Christmas.

Sir Keir Starmer has said Labor will vote with the government, which means the lockdown will likely sail through the Commons.

But the prime minister has come under fire from his own side and will face fierce opposition from Tory hawkish backbenches as they prepare to rebel against the measures.

Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the powerful 1922 committee, led the MPs backlash, telling the BBC's Westminster Hour last night: “I think the aspect of lockdown that bothers me most would be the level of interference with what we usually see as basic human rights; Freedom of association, the right to family life, the government is already telling us who we can sleep with or not, depending on whether they are in an established relationship.

“If such measures were taken in a totalitarian country around the world, we would denounce them as a form of evil. And here the abolition of the fundamental freedoms of the people proceeds almost without comment. & # 39;

Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the powerful 1922 committee, led the Tory backlash, warning that the government's restriction of civil liberties was "evil".

Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the powerful 1922 committee, led the Tory backlash, warning that the government's restriction of civil liberties was "evil".

Tory's ex-minister, Sir Desmond Swayne, said it would take "tremendous persuasion to vote for this disastrous course of action".

Former Cabinet Secretary Esther McVey said she would vote against her because the "lockdown cure" does more harm than Covid.

Backbencher Peter Bone told BBC Radio 4's Today program this morning that he has not yet decided how to vote on the measures outlined by Prime Minister Boris Johnson when they are discussed in the House of Commons on Wednesday.

Questions about dossier forecast of 4,000 deaths per day

The 4,000 deaths per day scenario was based on the assumption that there would be 1,000 per day in early November. The actual number of people dying is significantly lower. An average of 182 were confirmed per day in England and 162 across the UK yesterday

The 4,000 deaths per day scenario was based on the assumption that there would be 1,000 per day in early November. The actual number of people dying is significantly lower. An average of 182 were confirmed per day in England and 162 across the UK yesterday

Claims that 4,000 people could die from coronavirus by next month could be four or five times too high and not reflect the current situation, experts warn.

The shocking figure was unveiled by Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance at Saturday's television briefing where Boris Johnson announced the UK's second lockdown.

However, there are concerns that it is out of date and inaccurate. SAGE is accused of misleading the public and MPs by selecting the scariest dates.

Professor Carl Heneghan of the Center for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University said he "couldn't understand why they used these data".

The forecast could be four or five times too high, he said, given that the UK currently has an average of 1,000 deaths per day. In reality, according to the Ministry of Health, the daily average on October 22nd and 28th was 182 per day.

The number that appeared as the worst case on a graph with three other possible scenarios was created by statisticians from the University of Cambridge and Public Health England, who have since revised their numbers and reduced the possible number of deaths. The team's predictions are not published online like some of their other work, but rather sent directly to SPI-M, a subgroup of SAGE, to do with what they choose.

The potential 4,000 deaths per day if no changes were made to the restrictions were almost double the second worst case, making them more than 2,000 per day.

The lowest estimates in the no-action scenario put deaths at just under 2,000 per day, and all were higher than the high in the first wave, when the most deaths were recorded on April 8 (1,073).

Speaking at the press conference about 'illegible graphics', Mr Bone said,' At the moment I was not convinced that I should vote with the government on Wednesday.

Some of those on the back seats even told Mr. Johnson to leave. He has time to borrow, totally incapable, ”a source told The Times.

"I think it could be Suez," a former cabinet minister told the newspaper in a reference to the 1950s crisis that led to Anthony Eden's resignation.

A minister told the newspaper: "He has been overrun by the virus and his" advisors ". They are angry, they misunderstand the parliamentary party and, most importantly, they are totally, totally shitty. Last week – with the argument about free school meals and so on – we lost the next election. & # 39;

The dispute over the leaks from the & # 39; Quad & # 39; has become so serious that No10 threatens to call the police.

A cabinet source told the telegraph, "They're attacking the leak. You will do everything possible. “If you have to get the police to do it, they will. That is the degree of seriousness with which this is handled.

“There is a feeling, especially among cabinet ministers, that if they find the leak, they should be absolutely punished. You can imagine how the Chief Whip is feeling. & # 39;

Sources insisted that Sir Patrick's briefing be part of a normal, confidential discussion with journalists.

In the meantime it has been announced that Sir Patrick and Prof. Whitty will be informed of the new restrictions tomorrow by the Commons Science Committee.

Mr Johnson announced the second lockdown – which will begin Thursday after the Commons vote the previous day – during a press conference on Downing Street Saturday night.

A worst-case prediction of up to 4,000 deaths a day by Christmas with no action taken was the final straw for a prime minister who had previously ruled out such a move as his “nuclear deterrent”.

Pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops will have to close, although schools will remain open, unlike the first lockdown in March.

He is expected to tell MPs in the House of Commons this afternoon, “Models from our scientists suggest that if we don't act now, we could see deaths twice as bad or higher than the first wave.

Given these latest figures, there is no alternative but to take further action at national level.

"I know some in the House believe we should have made this decision sooner, but I think it was right to try every possible option to get this virus under control at the local level, with strong local measures and stronger local ones Guide."

However, the Prime Minister will not guarantee that the national lockdown will end on December 2nd as proposed.

Mr Johnson will say, "At the end of four weeks, Wednesday December 2nd, we will attempt to relax the restrictions and get back into the tiered system on a local and regional basis based on the latest data and trends."

However, a Whitehall source said, “The next three or four months will be very difficult.

“Hopefully after a month we can ease things up a bit, but that is not certain and we still have to hold the brakes to a certain extent.

“So far, Tier Three is the only one that has been shown to work at all. It reduces the R-rate – very slowly, and the rate is still above one – but it works to keep things from getting worse.

'With Tier Two, it's a lot harder to say it works. Maybe it would be if the compliance was better, but so far the R-rate is not being lowered – it is not a solution. & # 39;

Mr Sunak is widely recognized as the leading Cabinet Buzzard on the need to keep the economy going and has been forced to reject allegations of threatening resignation.

However, on BBC Radio 4's Today program, Sunak said when medical and scientific experts briefed senior ministers last week it was clear that the only "responsible" course was to impose a national lockdown.

"What is clear is that the virus is spreading even faster than the most sensible case of our scientific advisors," he said.

"And the models indicated that if we did not act, deaths in this country would be at levels higher than the spring level – a peak mortality rate that is far higher," said the Chancellor.

"And we have seen incidents, even in areas where they are currently low, increase very quickly, which would mean the NHS would be overwhelmed in a few weeks."

Mr. Sunak strongly warned that unemployment will rise due to the decline.

"Almost three quarters of a million people have tragically lost their jobs, and unfortunately many more," he said.

"That will happen because of the restrictions we have put in place."

Mr Suank tried to reassure angry Tory backers by insisting that lockdowns end legally on December 2nd.

He said the "hope and expectation" was that by then the virus would be at low enough levels to loosen the curbs, although he admitted they would continue to be checked.

Urged when asked whether the R-Phrase is key to lifting restrictions on that date, Rishi Sunak said, “It would be wrong to say that there is a single indicator.

"There are a number of different things that we look at."

When asked whether the support for the self-employed would increase from currently around 40 percent to 80 percent of the usual profit, the Chancellor emphasized that the subsidies cover a longer period than the holiday program.

Recovery, an anti-bans campaign group, sends its message, "Bans won't work", to the Houses of Parliament in Westminster

Recovery, an anti-bans campaign group, sends its message, "Bans won't work", to the Houses of Parliament in Westminster

Stocks tumble on lock messages

Boris Johnson's new lockdown plan dropped shares in retail and leisure companies yesterday as the stock market reacted to his hastily published plans.

The owners of British Airways, IAG, Wetherspoons, Cineworld, JD Sports, EasyJet, and pub and restaurant owners Mitchells and Butlers saw their share prices fall sharply this morning.

Airlines, pubs and non-essential retail stores are expected to be frozen back for at least four weeks starting Thursday.

But there have also been winners from plans to close all non-essential retailers by December 2nd.

Ocado, Just Eat Takeaway, Tesco, Sainsbury & # 39; s, and B&Q owners Kingfisher all saw stocks surge as investors expected sales for online grocery and DIY businesses to surge.

Ocado announced that profits will now be higher than previously thought. Within an hour of the stock market opening at 8 a.m., stocks rose nearly 8 percent.

"In terms of travel, the 40 percent will increase to reflect the fact that at least one of those months of support for those who are gainfully employed will be at a higher level," Sunak said.

Mr Gove said yesterday that it was his "burning hope" that restrictions could end as planned – but admitted that an extension might be necessary.

He said ministers would be guided by the facts, adding, "We need to bring the R-phrase below 1."

When asked if an extension was possible, he told Sky News: "Yes."

The Prime Minister is said to have been torn apart by the decision to return to lockdown because of the implications for people's lives and work. However, he felt like he had no choice when presented with data showing that within a few weeks the NHS would be on track to be overwhelmed.

One ally said: “It breaks his heart to do things that mean companies are closing and people are losing their jobs. He's a conservative in the free market who doesn't want to do any of this.

“However, we are talking about a situation where the NHS cannot accept new patients through the door. You speak of people dying in hospital corridors and parking lots. It is morally impossible for a government to sanction this. And it's likely not politically viable. & # 39;

Troubled Tory MPs last night called on the government to come up with an exit plan or alternative strategy to ensure the country isn't caught in a cycle of repeated lockdowns.

Charles Walker, who represents Broxbourne in Hertfordshire, said: “The lockdown is like a nightmare we will never wake up from – a dream where every door you open to escape leads back to the same place. We can't do the same thing because it doesn't work. & # 39;

A cabinet secretary warned the Times that if the R-rate stays high, Christmas plans will be ruined for many.

One economist predicted that every day the lockdown continues, £ 1.8 billion could be wiped off the value of the economy.

Lord Rose, the former head of Marks & Spencer, said the reintroduction of restrictions was a disaster.

Churches require exemptions from curbs

Senior clergymen are writing to the government asking why key elements of services have not been exempted from the lockdown.

The Archbishops of Canterbury and York, as well as the Bishop of London, say they will also highlight the "crucial role" churches play in the ward.

In a letter to the Church of England (CoE) clergy, Justin Welby, Stephen Cottrell and Sarah Mullally praised the members' "energy, hard work and creativity" in allowing the service to continue during the pandemic.

"We are grateful that the new guidelines, which will be introduced on Thursday, will not only allow churches to remain open to private prayer but also allow online services to be broadcast from the church building," they said.

"We were cautious – perhaps overly – on this issue during the first lockdown, but on this second lockdown we want to encourage church buildings to remain open to private prayers wherever possible."

The bishops said church leaders would receive more resources and training to enable them to conduct services online.

However, they added that the use of sacraments was an essential part of physical services and should not be viewed by the government as an "optional extra".

"I guess you can have two to three weeks of recovery time for every day that goes on," he added. "So if it takes a month, it might be a year of recovery."

Mark Littlewood of the Institute of Economic Affairs said, "We have now reached the point – both in terms of our health and our wealth – where the cure is worse than the disease."

The prime minister has been warned by his key scientific and medical advisers that the NHS could be overwhelmed by Covid-19.

So far, however, the Ministry of Health has refused to publish the dossier that helped push England back into the background.

The forecast of 4,000 possible daily deaths by Christmas – from the University of Cambridge in collaboration with Public Health England – significantly exceeded all other estimates.

In the meantime, senior clergymen are writing to the government asking why "certain exceptions" have not been made.

The Archbishops of Canterbury and York, as well as the Bishop of London, say they will also highlight the "crucial role" churches play in the ward.

In a letter to the Church of England (CoE) clergy, Justin Welby, Stephen Cottrell and Sarah Mullally praised the members' "energy, hard work and creativity" in allowing the service to continue during the pandemic.

"We are grateful that the new guidelines, which will be introduced on Thursday, will not only allow churches to remain open to private prayer but also allow online services to be broadcast from the church building," they said.

"We were cautious – perhaps overly – on this issue during the first lockdown, but on this second lockdown we want to encourage church buildings to remain open to private prayers wherever possible."

The bishops said church leaders would receive more resources and training to enable them to conduct services online.

However, they added that the use of sacraments was an essential part of physical services and should not be viewed by the government as an "optional extra".

What is the truth about No10's gritty Covid characters? Top advisors dropped their estimate of the number of daily cases prior to the lockdown announcement, official infections are barely increasing and the NHS had 40,000 spare beds at the start of the pandemic

SAGE advisors' estimates of how many people catch Covid-19 each day actually fell in late October, despite Boris Johnson having to re-lock the nation on fear the virus was out of control.

In a slide shown on the Prime Minister's grim televised briefing, Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance pointed to a forecast that there are currently between 50,000 and 63,000 new infections per day in England.

The most recent estimate made by the SAGE subgroup SPI-M was a downgrade from one made just a week earlier on Oct. 20 when it was predicted to have 53,000 to 90,000 infections per day, which indicates it suggesting the government's top scientific advisors have toned down how quickly they think the virus is spreading.

The more conservative estimate was made on October 27, five days before the second lockdown was announced. It came after a month with the group warning every week that the infections were getting worse but did not provoke government action, as advisers and scientists across the country put pressure on the prime minister for nationwide action.

Mr Johnson's top advisors also warned Saturday that hospital admissions for Covid-19 and the number of beds filled by coronavirus patients are rising and that the NHS may run out of space by December unless action is taken immediately.

However, there is no data to show how full the hospitals really are. Neither the government nor the NHS bosses regularly provide information on what proportion of beds are full or how many beds are still available. Instead, they offer a weekly report on how many Covid-19 patients are being treated in each trust, and a monthly update on how many of the total beds are occupied by the infected.

More than 114,000 hospital beds are known to be available in England, but only about 9,000 are currently occupied by coronavirus patients. The total number of inpatient beds that could be used – including beds rented from private hospitals and beds in nightingales – is unknown. Government graphics suggest that the capacity currently available is only about 20,000, despite nearly 40,000 beds being vacant in the spring.

However, hospital beds mostly fill up with people who contracted the infection days or even weeks ago, and positive tests now seem to be wearing off, creating confusion as to the true direction of the outbreak.

The 4,000 deaths per day scenario was based on the assumption that there would be 1,000 per day in early November. The actual number of people dying is significantly lower. An average of 182 were confirmed per day in England and 162 across the UK yesterday

The 4,000 deaths per day scenario was based on the assumption that there would be 1,000 per day in early November. The actual number of people dying is significantly lower. An average of 182 were confirmed per day in England and 162 across the UK yesterday

The SPI-M estimate for new infections is decreasing

The estimate of new cases made by the SAGE subgroup SPI-M-O is considered to be one of the three most reliable areas and has been given along with estimates based on mass tests by the Office of National Statistics and the government-funded REACT study.

The middle of the range suggests that SPI-M's best guess for new daily cases has dropped from 71,500 to 56,500 in a week – a 21 percent decrease.

And the upper bound on the estimate was lower on October 27th than it had ever been since October 7th – it swung from 57,000 to 74,000 to 90,000 and back to 63,000.

Although the drop estimate shows no trend as it is only a week of change, it does mean a slowdown on the experts' estimates, which had previously risen sharply. They have narrowed the range and are on the lower end of the forecast for the past few weeks.

The SPI-M estimate came after a week of confusing data suggesting that the number of people contracting the virus on a daily basis in England could range between 34,000 and 96,000.

One of the Office for National Statistics' top Covid-19 analysts said Friday that cases in England are "rising sharply" while an epidemiologist behind another project said people could be "reassured" that the virus was not out of control device.

Of studies that estimate the number of new infections per day in England, the ONS put them at 51,900; King's College Covid Symptom Study reads 34,628; a Cambridge University "nowcast" said 55,600; and Imperial College London's government-funded REACT study put them at 96,000.

The Ministry of Health's official testing program records only 23,016 infections per day, but a large number of infections are known to be overlooked with no symptoms.

All calculations have increased since their previous estimates and agree that the outbreak is still getting worse, but the speed at which this is happening is unclear.

Hospital admissions are increasing, but the maximum capacity is unknown

As tens of thousands of people continue to contract coronavirus every day, the number of people going to the hospital is increasing.

In October, the number of people in English hospitals with Covid-19 almost rose from 1,995 on the 1st of the month to 9,213 on the 31st, according to data from the Ministry of Health.

And Mr Johnson and his advisors warned in the meeting on Saturday that the intake was on track to surpass spring crisis levels within a matter of weeks. More than 30,000 inpatients are to be carried out by the end of November and more than 4,000 new admissions per day in the first week of December.

How much capacity hospitals actually have to cope with an increase in Covid-19 patients is not clear.

The latest occupancy figures from NHS England show that 113,000 hospital beds were occupied nationwide as of October 1 – but only 2,000 of those were patients who tested positive for Covid-19.

The number of Covid-19 patients admitted to hospital has increased rapidly since then. In England, 9,000 beds were used by the infected on October 31.

But health chiefs have never released numbers detailing exactly how busy the NHS is or has been over the course of the pandemic.

MailOnline revealed at the height of the first wave in April that Covid-19 patients never accounted for more than 30 percent of the total occupied beds. Almost 19,000 out of 70,000 patients in hospitals had Covid-19 at the time.

However, it's not clear how many more beds the NHS could have used if it needed them. Thousands have been made available in Nightingale hospitals and offers to rent beds in private wards.

WHY ARE THE UK OFFICIAL DAILY CASES NOT FAST?

The increase in people who tested positive for coronavirus appears to have slowed in England towards the end of October, with the daily average now falling.

The 18,950 positive tests announced yesterday are the lowest number in two weeks, and England's daily average, as measured by the date the tests were performed, peaked at 18,500 on October 23 and has since been at 18,130 on October 26, the last date with decreased reliable data.

Possible reasons for the curve flattening out sharply for weeks could be that the data is lagging and the cases are higher than they appear, or that the effects of the local lockdown tier system are now starting to show up in statistics.

Bans do not result in an immediate reduction in cases as it takes days or even more than a week for someone to feel sick, then be tested and then get the result. And a lockdown that doesn't stop all contact would take even longer as cases still occur.

Daily coronavirus cases by test date in England

Daily coronavirus cases by test date in England

Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, told MailOnline, “First of all, it's only a day and it's entirely plausible that it is some kind of malfunction in the system. I never think it's worth jumping over the dates of a day and getting too excited, especially on a Monday.

“But the epidemic seems to be slowing slightly. With the moving average, the rate of increase has been slowing for about a week.

“We all thought that about two weeks ago it slowed down and they forgot to put several thousand in the dataset.

“Let's just assume that it slows down. The national lockdown clearly has nothing to do with it.

“In the past few weeks, the rate of increase in northern cities – Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities – seems to have slowed.

“One possibility, but it is too early to say that the regional tier system actually worked. I'm not saying it was, but that could be the explanation.

& # 39; The only possible explanation is that it was a glitch and there is another reporting issue.

"From my point of view, the problem is if we deal with something like this, if we keep changing the rules and don't give them enough time to come into effect, you never know which measures have worked."

Tens of thousands of beds were left empty and unused during the peak of the first wave after hospitals withdrew patients to make way for a staggering surge in Covid-19 patients that never fully entered.

In April, the Health Service Journal reported that for the weekend of April 11-12, 41 percent of the NHS hospital's beds were empty – around 37,500 of a possible 91,600.

And the NHS has taken possession of the thousands of beds it commanded to repel the first wave. Nine nightingale facilities on standby were ready to deal with a second surge in Covid-19, which means capacity has been increased beyond the usual 110,000.

Figures from NHS England show hospitals across the country were 92 percent full last December. Of the 101,598 beds, an average of 93,442 beds were used by patients who had to be cared for overnight.

Winter always puts pressure on hospitals as the flu is floating around and it is not clear whether some beds need to be closed to separate patients on Covid and non-Covid wards.

Positive tests in England seem to have calmed down

But as hospital beds begin to fill up, coronavirus cases in England appear to have leveled off after spiking in mid-September. This is evident from official statistics, which have created more confusion about the test data.

Statistical projects tracking the spread of the disease have estimated that between 34,000 and 100,000 new infections occur every day in England, and that transmission doubles about every nine days.

The overwhelming consensus that this is the case has been used by government scholars to justify withdrawing into a national lockdown such as the one that seized the country earlier this year.

However, according to the latest data from Public Health England, the central testing regime is taking in less than half as many cases as experts believe they will be contracted.

The most recently released numbers from PHE suggest that the outbreak has stabilized and the number of people who test positive each day is actually falling for two consecutive days.

The average daily cases in England peaked at 18,500 on October 26, which is only a 2.3 percent increase in four days, according to the latest snapshot.

However, the REACT-1 study commissioned by the Ministry of Health estimated that around 96,000 new infections occurred on October 25, and the number has doubled every nine days.

However, official numbers show that confirmed cases only doubled between three and four weeks, rising from under 9,000 on October 2 to 18,500 on October 26.

The discrepancy between the official test numbers and the scientists' gritty numbers shows that the scheme of number 10 is not keeping up with the epidemic and does not accurately reflect the current trajectory.

It is believed that several reasons are responsible for the inequality. The main problem, however, is that lack of capacity forces the central system to give priority to symptomatic individuals and vulnerable groups.

Experts believe that up to 80 percent of Covid-19 infections are mild or asymptomatic, making them harder to track down and isolate.

Between 200,000 and 300,000 tests are carried out every day in England – a number that has only increased gradually since the summer.

One-fifth of the tests performed daily involve patients and staff in hospitals and nursing homes, which are given priority as patients and residents are most susceptible to getting seriously ill or dying from the disease.

Latest figures for October 29 show a total of 272,510 swabs were performed, of which 60,969 (22 percent) were in these groups.

The number of tests that need to be done to find a single case of coronavirus has decreased because so many people are now suffering from the virus, data shows. During the summer, dozens and even hundreds of tests were run for each positive result, as fewer than 30,000 people were believed to have the virus. It is now believed that more than 500,000 people in England are carrying the virus, so significantly fewer tests are required to find a positive case

The number of tests that need to be done to find a single case of coronavirus has decreased because so many people are now suffering from the virus, data shows. During the summer, dozens and even hundreds of tests were run for each positive result, as fewer than 30,000 people were believed to have the virus. It is now believed that more than 500,000 people in England are infected with the virus, so significantly fewer tests are required to find a positive case

What is the TRUTH about Britain's second wave? The R-rate drops again and the symptom tracking app says the outbreak is "stable" – but Imperial is warning of 96,000 cases per day and even ONS claims the infections are "spiking".

There is no doubt that coronavirus infections are still on the rise in the UK, but mathematicians and scientists disagree on how bad the second wave really is.

A number of statistics have been released over the past 48 hours, with conflicting estimates of the number of people being infected with the virus, between 35,000 and 96,000 a day, and some doubts about the fateful warnings of a recurrence in March.

Statistiken, die diese Woche veröffentlicht wurden, haben in England eine breite Palette möglicher täglicher Infektionen hervorgebracht, von nur 34.000 nach einer Schätzung des King's College London bis zu 96.000 nach einer von der Regierung durchgeführten REACT-Studie

Statistiken, die diese Woche veröffentlicht wurden, haben in England eine breite Palette möglicher täglicher Infektionen hervorgebracht, von nur 34.000 nach einer Schätzung des King's College London bis zu 96.000 nach einer von der Regierung durchgeführten REACT-Studie

Einer der besten Covid-19-Analysten des Office for National Statistics sagte, dass die Fälle in England "stark zunehmen", während ein Epidemiologe hinter einem anderen Projekt sagte, die Menschen könnten "beruhigt" sein, dass das Virus nicht außer Kontrolle gerät.

Von Studien, in denen die Anzahl der Neuinfektionen pro Tag in England geschätzt wird, bezifferte sich das ONS auf 51.900; In der Covid Symptom Study des King's College heißt es 34.628; ein "Nowcast" der Universität Cambridge sagte 55.600; und die von der Regierung finanzierte REACT-Studie des Imperial College London bezifferte sie auf 96.000. Das offizielle Testprogramm des Gesundheitsministeriums nimmt täglich 22.125 Infektionen auf, es ist jedoch bekannt, dass eine große Anzahl ohne Symptome übersehen wird.

Alle Berechnungen haben seit ihren vorherigen Schätzungen zugenommen und sind sich einig, dass sich der Ausbruch verschlimmert, aber die Geschwindigkeit, mit der dies geschieht, ist unklar.

In der Zwischenzeit hat SAGE gestern seine wöchentliche Schätzung der R-Rate veröffentlicht und erklärt, die Ausbreitungsgeschwindigkeit sei gesunken. Die wissenschaftlichen Berater der Regierung haben die Bereiche für Großbritannien und England auf 1,1 bis 1,3 festgelegt, gegenüber 1,2 bis 1,4 in der vergangenen Woche. Sie sagten jedoch: "SAGE ist fast sicher, dass die Epidemie im ganzen Land weiterhin rasant zunimmt."

Die Zahl der Personen, die ins Krankenhaus eingeliefert werden und an Coronavirus sterben, steigt weiterhin rapide an. Derzeit werden durchschnittlich 230 Todesfälle pro Tag angekündigt und 10.308 Personen mit Covid-19 im Krankenhaus, was einem Anstieg von mehr als 1.000 pro Tag entspricht.

Diese werden in den kommenden Wochen und Monaten weiter zunehmen, selbst wenn sich die Fälle verlangsamen oder sogar fallen, sagen Beamte, weil Krankenhausaufenthalte und Todesfälle durch Infektionen, die zwei bis drei Wochen früher auftreten, „eingebrannt“ werden.

Ein Statistiker, der an keiner der Vorhersagen beteiligt war – Professor James Naismith von der Universität Oxford – sagte, dass in allen „Unsicherheiten“ vorhanden seien, was bedeutet, dass keine einzige Zahl korrekt sei. Er fügte hinzu: "Wir können fast sicher sein, dass die Zahl der Todesfälle pro Tag durch Covid-19 in den nächsten Wochen zunehmen wird."

In Krankenhäusern und Pflegeheimen gibt es derzeit strenge Maßnahmen zur Infektionskontrolle, um eine Wiederholung der Katastrophe der ersten Welle zu vermeiden. Dies bedeutet, dass die überwiegende Mehrheit dieser Tests negativ ausfällt.

Der Rest der täglichen Tests wird an Personen durchgeführt, die über Symptome berichten, oder um Kontakte zu bestätigten Fällen zu schließen.

Studien wie REACT-1 und die Überwachungsprogramme des Amtes für nationale Statistiken senden jedoch unabhängig von den Symptomen Tests an zufällig ausgewählte Haushalte, um ein genaueres Bild der Krise in ihrem aktuellen Zustand zu erhalten.

Prognose von 4.000 Todesfällen pro Tag basierend auf veralteten Schätzungen

Eine weitere fragwürdige Behauptung in der Besprechung am Samstag war ein "Worst-Case-Szenario", wonach bis zum nächsten Monat 4.000 Menschen an Coronavirus sterben könnten.

Die schockierende Zahl wurde von Sir Patrick Vallance, dem leitenden wissenschaftlichen Berater, in der Fernsehbesprechung am Samstag vorgestellt, in der Herr Johnson die zweite Sperrung Großbritanniens ankündigte.

Es gibt jedoch Bedenken, dass es veraltet und ungenau ist. SAGE wird beschuldigt, die Öffentlichkeit und die Abgeordneten durch die Auswahl der gruseligsten Daten irregeführt zu haben.

Professor Carl Heneghan vom Zentrum für evidenzbasierte Medizin an der Universität Oxford sagte, er könne "nicht verstehen, warum sie diese Daten verwendet haben".

Die Prognose könnte vier- oder fünfmal zu hoch sein, sagte er, da derzeit in Großbritannien durchschnittlich 1.000 Todesfälle pro Tag verzeichnet werden. In Wirklichkeit lag der Tagesdurchschnitt nach Angaben des Gesundheitsministeriums am 22. und 28. Oktober bei 182 pro Tag.

Die Zahl, die in einer Grafik mit drei anderen möglichen Szenarien als der schlimmste Fall erschien, wurde von Statistikern der University of Cambridge und von Public Health England erstellt, die seitdem ihre Zahlen überarbeitet und die mögliche Zahl der Todesfälle gesenkt haben. Die Prognosen des Teams werden nicht wie einige ihrer anderen Arbeiten online veröffentlicht, sondern direkt an SPI-M, eine Untergruppe von SAGE, gesendet, um damit zu tun, was sie wählen.

Die potenziellen 4.000 Todesfälle pro Tag, wenn keine Änderungen an den Beschränkungen vorgenommen wurden, waren fast doppelt so hoch wie im zweitschlechtesten Fall, wodurch sie mehr als 2.000 pro Tag erreichten.

Die niedrigsten Schätzungen im No-Action-Szenario schätzten die Todesfälle auf knapp 2.000 pro Tag und alle waren höher als der Höchststand in der ersten Welle, als die meisten Todesfälle am 8. April verzeichnet wurden (1.073).

Professor Heneghan sagte gegenüber The Telegraph: „Unsere Aufgabe als Wissenschaftler ist es, die Beweise und Unsicherheiten zu reflektieren und die neuesten Schätzungen vorzulegen.

"Ich kann nicht verstehen, warum sie diese Daten verwendet haben, wenn es weitaus aktuellere Prognosen aus Cambridge gibt, auf die sie hätten zugreifen können, die etwas ganz anderes zeigen."

In einem Blogbeitrag erklärten Professor Heneghan und Dr. Dan Howdon, ein medizinischer Forscher an der Universität von Leeds, dass das Projekt, das die Schätzung von 4.000 pro Tag erstellt hat, seitdem zweimal aktualisiert und die Zahlen herabgestuft wurden.

Es basiert auf einer Schätzung von 1.000 Todesfällen pro Tag am 1. November, aber es wurden wirklich nur 162 gestern angekündigt.

In alternativen Szenarien in Sir Patricks Grafik lagen die Todesfälle am 1. November bei 486, 266 und 234 – alle deutlich niedriger.

Professor Heneghan und Dr. Howdon wiesen darauf hin, dass die Cambridge-Prognose seit der in der Sitzung verwendeten Version mehr als einmal aktualisiert wurde.

Sie schrieben: „Seit dem ersten Herbst-Update am 12. Oktober haben zwei nachfolgende Updates die geschätzte Anzahl der Todesfälle erheblich reduziert.

'Das Update vom 12. Oktober prognostizierte am 30. Oktober 588 Todesfälle, und die Updates haben dies seitdem auf 324 (21. Oktober für den 31. Oktober) und zuletzt auf 241 (28. Oktober für den 5. November) revidiert.

"Dieses neueste Update läuft bis zum 15. November, wenn 497 Todesfälle prognostiziert werden."

Die Grafik, die der wissenschaftliche Hauptberater im Briefing vorstellte, zeigte, dass die Todesfälle Ende Dezember ihren Höhepunkt erreichen könnten, aber das aktualisierte Modell geht nicht so weit in die Zukunft.

Die Flugbahn führt jedoch dazu, dass die Zahl der Todesfälle nur ein Viertel so hoch ist wie die Prognose von 4.000 pro Tag.

Professor Heneghan sagte daher, dass die 4.000 pro Tag bis zu fünfmal zu viel sein könnten und dass genauere, niedrigere Schätzungen verfügbar seien, bevor das Briefing am Samstag stattfand.

Er sagte gegenüber The Telegraph: „Ich bin zutiefst besorgt darüber, wie die Daten präsentiert werden, damit Politiker Entscheidungen treffen können.

Diese Folie, die am Samstag im Live-Fernsehen gezeigt wurde, zeigt eine Prognose der Todesfälle, die bis Ende Dezember 4.000 pro Tag erreichen (blaue Linie). Experten sind jedoch besorgt über die Entscheidung, dies aufzunehmen, da sie auf alten Daten basiert, die seitdem vorliegen wurde aktualisiert

Diese Folie, die am Samstag im Live-Fernsehen gezeigt wurde, zeigt eine Prognose der Todesfälle, die bis Ende Dezember 4.000 pro Tag erreichen (blaue Linie). Experten sind jedoch besorgt über die Entscheidung, dies aufzunehmen, da sie auf alten Daten basiert, die seitdem vorliegen wurde aktualisiert

ABER WIE BESETZT SIND NHS-KRANKENHÄUSER?

Im Oktober stieg die Zahl der Menschen in englischen Krankenhäusern mit Covid-19 von 1.995 am 1. des Monats auf 9.213 am 31. fast an, wie Daten des Gesundheitsministeriums zeigen.

Und Herr Johnson und seine Berater warnten in der Pressekonferenz am Samstag, dass die Aufnahme auf dem richtigen Weg sei, um das Niveau der Frühjahrskrise innerhalb weniger Wochen zu übertreffen. Bis Ende November sollen mehr als 30.000 stationäre Patienten und in der ersten Woche mehr als 4.000 Neuaufnahmen pro Tag durchgeführt werden Dezember.

Wie viel Kapazität Krankenhäuser tatsächlich haben, um mit einem Anstieg der Covid-19-Patienten fertig zu werden, ist nicht klar.

Die aktuellsten Belegungszahlen von NHS England zeigen, dass am 1. Oktober landesweit 113.000 Krankenhausbetten belegt wurden – aber nur 2.000 davon waren Patienten, die positiv auf Covid-19 getestet wurden.

Die Zahl der Covid-19-Patienten, die ins Krankenhaus eingeliefert wurden, hat sich seitdem rasant erhöht. In England wurden am 31. Oktober 9.000 Betten von Infizierten in Anspruch genommen.

Aber die Gesundheitschefs haben nie Zahlen veröffentlicht, die genau beschreiben, wie beschäftigt der NHS im Verlauf der Pandemie ist oder war.

MailOnline enthüllte auf dem Höhepunkt der ersten Welle im April, dass Covid-19-Patienten nie mehr als 30 Prozent der insgesamt belegten Betten ausmachten. Knapp 19.000 von 70.000 Patienten in Krankenhäusern hatten zu dieser Zeit Covid-19.

But it is not clear how many more beds could have been used by the NHS if it needed them, with thousands made available in Nightingale hospitals and deals to rent beds on with private wards.

Tens of thousands of beds were left empty and unused during the peak of the first wave after hospitals turfed out patients to make room for an overwhelming surge in Covid-19 patients that never fully materialised.

In April the Health Service Journal reported that 41 per cent of NHS hospital beds were empty on the weekend of April 11-12 — around 37,500 out of a possible 91,600.

And the NHS has kept hold of the thousands of beds it commandeered to fight off the first wave, with nine make-shift Nightingale facilities on standby to help cope with a second surge of Covid-19, meaning capacity has been upgraded past its usual 110,000.

NHS England figures show hospitals across the country were 92 per cent full last December, with 93,442 beds out of 101,598 taken up by patients needing overnight care, on average.

Winter always increases pressure on hospitals because flu is in circulation, and it is not clear whether some beds will have to be closed in order to segregate patients onto Covid and non-Covid wards.

'It is a fast-changing situation, which is very different in different regions, and it concerns me that MPs who are about to go to a vote are not getting the full picture.'

Conservative MPs said they were worried the forecasts were 'misleading'.

David Davis told the newspaper: 'The first responsibility of the scientific advisers to the Government is to give the truth to the public and not to cherry-pick the data.

'This is a fairly major error on their part if they've used old data which effectively misleads the public.'

And Steve Baker added: 'This evidence does appear to indicate that the death models are already wrong and by quite a considerable margin.'

Questions were first raised yesterday over the dossier that helped tip England into lockdown with its grim prediction of 4,000 deaths a day.

The projection by Cambridge University in conjunction with Public Health England (PHE) is thought to have drastically shifted Downing Street's thinking.

Paperwork unearthed by the Mail shows the Cambridge model uses a timeframe twice as long as the official death toll every day by PHE.

While PHE records deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test, Cambridge's 'nowcast and forecast', on which the Downing Street data was based, collates deaths within 60 days of a positive result, giving them double the sample size.

This could account for why the Cambridge/PHE death rate was so much higher than the others. No one was available from Cambridge to comment last night.

The Department of Health also refused to release the official report.

But last night PHE said their model is one of 'many' that is sent in to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and that these models can be 'wide-ranging'.

Of the many slides presented at the press conference, the most startling was a graph entitled 'England daily deaths if no changes in policy or behaviour'.

It revealed forecasts from institutions including Imperial College London, Warwick University, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Cambridge.

The Cambridge projection suggested England's daily death toll could reach 4,000 during the height of winter – many more than at the peak of the first wave.

Imperial predicted around 2,700 deaths a day and other institutions gave estimates below 2,000.

They all indicated that the UK was on course for a higher death toll than any predicted in reasonable worst-case scenario planning.

The Cambridge and PHE estimation far exceeded the 800 deaths a day forecast from the Sage expert committee.

It is understood these models were in a document presented to Downing Street by scientific advisers last week, and contributed to the lockdown.

Tory MP Charles Walker said: 'If it is the case that SAGE are not making this document public, it is extraordinary given that SAGE scientists fall over themselves to get on TV and radio to talk about their work and the importance of putting the UK into a deep freeze.

'All information that is being used to support the lockdown should be put into the public domain as a matter of course and duty.'

During the press conference on Saturday, Sir Patrick Vallance said: 'Different groups come up with different answers depending on their models, but what is clear from all of them, in terms of deaths over the winter, there is the potential for this to be twice as bad or more compared to the first wave.'

Other scientists have provided more conservative estimates. James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute and professor of structural biology at Oxford University, said: 'We do not know yet how many infections per day have occurred this week that has just ended, but it is very likely to be above 60,000 infections per day.

'Based on those figures, we should expect and not be surprised to see a rise in deaths to around 500 per day over the next three weeks until we start to see the new measures take effect.'

Yesterday the Government said a further 162 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total to 46,717.

Second lockdown will be the 'final death blow' for thousands of British businesses, industry leaders warn as leading economist predicts new measures will cost £1.8billion per day

A second lockdown will be the 'final death blow' for thousands of British businesses, industry leaders warned last night.

As one leading economist predicted the lockdown will cost the UK £1.8billion per day, bosses of businesses from Waterstones to Rocco Forte Hotels lashed out at the 'disastrous' restrictions which could devastate the High Street.

Economist Douglas McWilliams, founder of the Centre for Economics and Business Research, said shutting the country down for at least a month from Thursday will wipe £1.8billion off the value of the economy for every day it lasts.

He forecasts the gloom to push into next year, meaning the UK's coronavirus recession is likely to last until the spring.

As Christmas parties are cancelled and High Streets are closed, businesses and consumers are expected to slash their spending. This will have a knock-on effect on the public purse as VAT takings slump.

Shoppers queue outside Ikea in Batley, West Yorkshire, on Sunday - one day after new national lockdown measures were announced which will come into place from Thursday

Shoppers queue outside Ikea in Batley, West Yorkshire, on Sunday – one day after new national lockdown measures were announced which will come into place from Thursday

A queue of shoppers snaked along a road outside a Costco in Watford on Sunday

A queue of shoppers snaked along a road outside a Costco in Watford on Sunday

A Costco shopper in Birmingham filled his trolley to the brim with toilet roll, cans and various other groceries

A Costco shopper in Birmingham filled his trolley to the brim with toilet roll, cans and various other groceries

And as more businesses struggle to make ends meet and teeter on the brink of collapse, job losses are expected to rise despite the extension of the furlough scheme.

Rishi was reluctant to accept shutdown … but he did NOT threaten to resign

Rishi Sunak was reluctant to agree to the second national lockdown in light of the threat to the economy and the huge £5billion cost of furlough, sources said last night.

The Chancellor was one of those at the Downing Street meeting on Friday which decided to go ahead with new restrictive measures.

A source said there was a 'collective decision' to back a second lockdown, and that Mr Sunak 'accepted it' – and he did not threaten to resign, as some whispers around Westminster were suggesting yesterday.

'There was a presentation from the scientists,' the source said. 'The data was put to them and there wasn't a great deal to say.' Boris Johnson and Mr Sunak had been hoping to avoid a second lockdown, over fears of its devastating impact on business and jobs.

But the figures presented to them – predicting that the NHS would be overwhelmed – were so stark that it was not possible to argue against. The fact that France and Germany had both recently embarked on national lockdowns also made it hard not to go along with the recommendations.

Mr Sunak agreed that the full furlough scheme, worth 80 per cent of wages, will be reinstated for the duration of the second lockdown. This could cost the taxpayer as much as £5billion over the next month. But there are fears the cost will rise if, as expected, the lockdown drags on.

This will blow a hole in household finances, according to accountancy firm EY, which is expecting banks to increase the number of loans they have to write off as customers fail to meet repayments.

Sir Rocco Forte, chairman of Rocco Forte Hotels, said: 'The hospitality industry and the whole entertainment industry is already on its knees and this is the final death blow.

'You can have furlough and other schemes which reduce the business outgoings, but if you have no income you can't survive. It's a never-ending nightmare – the second lockdown is a disaster.'

The restrictions come as restaurants and pubs were gearing up for the Christmas rush in an effort to make back some of the income they had lost over spring and summer. Des Gunewardena, co-founder of restaurant chain D&D London which runs venues such as Bluebird Chelsea, said: 'December is an absolutely crucial month for our business. It's really important that the Government does everything they can to get cases under control so we can open up for four weeks.'

John O'Reilly, chief executive of Rank Group which owns 77 Mecca bingo halls and 51 Grosvenor casinos, added: 'Hospitality businesses like ours are forced to lean into another month of misery after a series of setbacks and restrictions.'

Retailers are also gearing up for a 'catastrophic' Christmas as shoppers shun the High Street.

James Daunt, chief executive of Waterstones, said: 'In the longer term I'm really worried about what the High Street we're on will look like in the spring.

'We really need the independent and smaller retailers around us to make up the ecosystem.'

The number of visitors across all brick-and-mortar shops is expected to plunge by 62 per cent on last year between November 22 and December 26, according to data company Springboard.

High Streets will be hit harder than other locations, such as shopping centres and retail parks, with an 87 per cent drop in visitors.

Despite the lockdown being due to end on December 2, Springboard thinks shoppers will be trying to save money and will prefer to shop online.

Diane Wehrle, of Springboard, said the measures were 'catastrophic for the retail industry'. She said: 'Most consumers are likely to have completed a vast amount of shopping online in advance and may well have fears of returning to brick-and-mortar stores.'

The anger from business leaders came as the CEBR warned that the second wave of coronavirus cases could slash 5 to 10 per cent off economies in the Western world every month that restrictions last.

Mr McWilliams said: 'Losing a lot of Christmas-related spending will have a distinct impact since December retail sales are about 50 per cent higher than the monthly average.'

A Covid-19 testing site in Leicester, after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a new national lockdown will come into force in England next week

A Covid-19 testing site in Leicester, after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a new national lockdown will come into force in England next week

Shelves are emptied of toilet rolls at a Tesco store in Grimsby as swathes of customers race to bulk-buy household essentials on Sunday

Shelves are emptied of toilet rolls at a Tesco store in Grimsby as swathes of customers race to bulk-buy household essentials on Sunday

And as unemployment bites, many British households will struggle to make ends meet, according to EY.

The firm predicts banks will have to write off 2.5 per cent of loans to consumers next year – up from 1.3 per cent this year and a near-decade high.

Mark Littlewood, of think-tank the Institute of Economic Affairs, said: 'We have now reached the point – in terms of both our health and our wealth – where the cure is worse than the disease.'

Timeline of the 24 hours that shaped lockdown 2.0: How leak of plans for a new four-week shutdown in November and the subsequent political chaos forced Boris Johnson into action – and caused havoc on Strictly Come Dancing

Here is how the bombshell period in coronavirus politics played out:

Friday, October 31

PM Boris Johnson was given hard facts about real people in hospital beds, and the debate was effectively over

2pm: Sir Patrick Vallance underlines SAGE's call for a national lockdown at a briefing with reporters, saying it is 'not too late to save Christmas'

He urges the closure of all pubs and restaurants and venues where households mix indoors.

It comes after a Government-led study by Imperial College London had been published showing that nearly 100,000 people in the UK are getting infected with Covid-19 every day.

Heat maps were presented at the press conference showing that the infections were spreading among older age groups

Heat maps were presented at the press conference showing that the infections were spreading among older age groups

The REACT-1 project – which has been swabbing tens of thousands of people every week – estimated there were around 96,000 people getting infected every day in England by October 25.

French President Emmanuel Macron  has already announced a second national lockdown until the end of November and German Chancellor Angela Merkel also announces a 'lockdown lite' which  is less severe but includes the closure of restaurants, gyms and theatres.

3pm: The posts will be published online from a SAGE meeting which revealed advisors warned ministers on October 14th that the UK could be in a more serious situation than the scientists' worst case scenario.

They say 'we are breaching the number of infections and hospital admissions in the Reasonable Worst Case planning scenario' and the outlook for Covid-19's future spread was 'concerning' if no action was taken.

The SAGE papers warn that modelling suggests up to 74,000 people a day could be becoming infected in England alone, far beyond the worst case scenario.

3.30pm: The all-powerful Covid Quad committee, which has taken all the key strategic decisions during the pandemic, met in the Cabinet Office on Friday, along with 20 experts.

Boris Johnson, chairing the committee meeting, fought what one source called a 'valiant battle' to keep the country open, 'arguing with himself' and endorsing many of his Chancellor's hawkish warnings about the economic carnage it would entail.

Every time Health Secretary Matt Hancock made his arguments in favour of the lockdown, he was supported by fellow 'dove' Mr Gove.

Both Ministers were emboldened by France and Germany's move into full lockdown.

The Prime Minister continued to back his Chancellor, until a chilling submission by Sir Simon Stevens, the head of the NHS, which effectively condemned the country to another month of confinement.

EARLY EVENING: Downing Street is informed that ITV Political Editor Robert Peston has received a "reading of the entire meeting," according to the Times.

The Prime Minister continued to back Rishi Sunak's hopes of keeping the economy open until a chilling submission by Sir Simon Stevens, the head of the NHS, which effectively condemned the country to another month of confinement.

The Prime Minister continued to back Rishi Sunak's hopes of keeping the economy open until a chilling submission by Sir Simon Stevens, the head of the NHS, which effectively condemned the country to another month of confinement.

10.30PM: No10's plans to shut down England for at least a month have also been leaked in the Daily Mail and will be announced when the first issue of the paper comes out on Saturday.

The Mail learns that SAGE told ministers Covid-19 is spreading 'significantly' faster than even their original 'worst-case scenario' prediction.

Downing Street is furious to read details of the lockdown in the first editions of the Saturday newspapers, hours after the decision had been taken by Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak, Michael Gove and Matt Hancock.

The leak means that the shutdown was on the front pages before the rest of the Cabinet had been told and sparks widespread anger among politicians and business leaders.

Saturday, October 31

7AM: BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg reveals some of the information shown to the quad involves daily deaths could top 4,000

11 clock:: Boris Johnson calls an unscheduled cabinet meeting to inform angry ministers of his plans. With just a few hours left, he also calls a hastily arranged live press conference at 4 p.m. to let the nation know of his plans.

11am: Downing Street launches an investigation to find the source of the story, amid reports that the Government had wanted to keep the plan quiet until Monday.

Multiple Government sources sought to pin the blame on Matt Hancock by accusing him of trying to 'bump' the Prime Minister into announcing the lockdown before he could have second thoughts. The Health Secretary strenuously denied the claims.

However, other sources pointed the finger at Mr Gove – the other 'dove' in the quad – and suggested that Mr Hancock was being made the 'fall guy' for the leak.

Both ministers have flatly denied the allegation.

1.30 p.m .: The cabinet meets virtually and the Prime Minister dials in from Downing Street. It takes over an hour

2.30pm: The press conference is pushed back to 5pm, suggesting that the lockdown plans are still being hammered out and argued over by ministers.

3:40 pm: Mr Peston tweets a summary of the measures Mr Johnson will be announcing at the press conference, following the Cabinet meeting.

3.58pm: The BBC's Nick Eardly reveals similar details about what is going to be announced.

4.50PM: The press conference is pushed back to 6.30pm.

5PM: It emerges that Mr Johnson has apologised to Conservative MPs and tells them that he will launch an inquiry to find the 'culprit' who leaked details of the new lockdown before his announcement.

Mr Johnson sends a message to Conservative MPs on WhatsApp to apologise and warn there are 'no easy short term options'. 'Folks – so sorry that you've had to hear about all this from the newspapers today,' he wrote.

'Let me assure you that the leak was not a No10 briefing and indeed we have launched an inquiry to catch the culprit. I had hoped to make the announcement in parliament on Monday but to avoid any further uncertainty I'll now do a press conference from Downing Street this evening.

'My team will make sure you have access to all the data and briefing from scientists you need in the coming days. Please speak to your whip if you have anything to feed in.

'I assure you we are doing what we believe is best for the country and to ensure that the NHS is not overwhelmed in a way that could cost many thousands of lives.

'There is a clear way out of this, with better medication and rapid testing – and the genuine prospect of a vaccine. Our country will recover well. But I am afraid there are no easy short term options. Best Boris.'

6:45PM: Boris Johnson, joined by Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty and Chief Scientific Adviser Professor Patrice Vallance, finally fronts the delayed press conference.

Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty

Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty

The press conference runs for just under half an hour, cutting into the broadcast of the latest Strictly Come Dancing episode.

The broadcasters had already axed Little Mix's talent show for a 4pm address, and when it was moved back to 5pm, a half-hour news special was put in at 4.30pm, hosted by Reeta Chakrabarti.

However, she was still presenting the programme at 7.13pm, so Mastermind was also axed.

7.14PM: Strictly contestants and production staff find out it was still going on air just seconds before the network started playing the introduction music at around 7.14pm – four minutes after the time it was originally scheduled to begin.

The press conference runs for just under half an hour, cutting into the broadcast of the latest Strictly Come Dancing episode

The press conference runs for just under half an hour, cutting into the broadcast of the latest Strictly Come Dancing episode

Sources on the show said that at one point it was expected that the show would be moved to a later day as no information had come from the scheduling department.

One said last night: 'We had no idea what was going on. The time kept getting away from us.

'It was total chaos. There were phone calls being made back and forth, but nobody knew what Boris and his team were doing so everyone on the Strictly team was left hanging. You can imagine the nerves backstage among the dancers.'

Fans on Twitter also poked fun at the situation. Broadcaster Matt Chorley wrote: 'Of all the highly dangerous things this Government has done, f***ing about with the start of Strictly seems the most risky.'

SATURDAY EVENING:

Tory backbench lockdown hawks vent their anger at the new announcement.

Sir Robert Syms, an ex-Tory whip, suggested that No10 had not properly 'audited progress' made by the three-tier system which sees restrictions with varying degrees of severity placed on individual regions.

Sir Robert tweeted: 'I am open to more measures (but) we have a regional approach which we have not given time to work. If we need to tweak it, fine, let's measure what works and discard what does not. At the moment the Government is getting bounced into a change before we have audited progress.'

Desmond Swayne, the Conservative MP for New Forest West, described the move as 'disastrous' and accused Cabinet ministers of behaving like 'headless chickens'.

Mr Swayne said: 'Lockdowns make everyone poorer and poor people even poorer. I fear more people will die sooner than they would have as a consequence of the decision.

'In a bad flu season 80,000 people die, but we don't behave like headless chickens.'

Sir Charles Walker, the vice-chairman of the 1922 Committee, told the BBC: 'There has to be another way of doing this. If you want first world public services, you need a first world economy.'

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