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Was lockdown sold for a LIE? The Oxford scientist says 4,000 deaths should NOT be used


Coronavirus infections and hospital admissions are already "flatlining" and graphics used by the government to justify England's second lockdown were misleading with a "proven false", an Oxford expert claimed today.

Professor Carl Heneghan of the University's Center for Evidence-Based Medicine has again taken the "out of date" estimates Boris Johnson and his top scientific and medical advisers used to move England to another national shutdown in the bleak television briefing Saturday night.

One who suggested there could be up to 4,000 deaths a day by December was "mathematically incorrect" and shouldn't have been used, he said.

Professor Heneghan, who has outright criticized the government's lockdown strategy, said trends in the country's epidemic have changed in recent weeks and have stopped accelerating. Although deaths from infections that have already occurred will continue to rise for weeks, he said they would slow accordingly.

Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty have come under fire for somber slides they unveiled at the weekend's press conference and are being grilled this afternoon by Members of Parliament's Science Committee to justify the evidence of another national lockdown.

Meanwhile, the same day Boris Johnson desperately tried to convince Tory MPs to support a draconian second lockdown, the UK recorded the lowest daily number of Covid infections in a fortnight yesterday.

Health Department figures showed that 18,950 people tested positive for the disease, a 9.3 percent decrease in one week, the lowest since Monday October 19 (18,804). There were an additional 136 coronavirus deaths in the UK – a 33.3 percent increase from the 102 laboratory-confirmed deaths recorded last week.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is out and about in London this morning

The director of the Center for Evidence-Based Medicine, Carl Heneghan (left), mathematically said the document should not have been used to justify the new locking edges (right, the Prime Minister today).

Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof. Chris Whitty (left and right with the Prime Minister during Saturday's address to the nation) face questions from MPs about the 4,000 deaths a day following a backlash from academics

Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof. Chris Whitty (left and right with the Prime Minister during Saturday's address to the nation) face questions from MPs about the 4,000 deaths a day following a backlash from academics

This slide, shown on live television on Saturday, shows a forecast of deaths, which will reach 4,000 a day by the end of December (blue line). However, experts are concerned about the decision to include this as it is based on old data that has since been updated

This slide, shown on live television on Saturday, shows a forecast of deaths, which will reach 4,000 a day by the end of December (blue line). However, experts are concerned about the decision to include this as it is based on old data that has since been updated

The 4,000 deaths per day scenario was based on the assumption that there would be 1,000 per day in early November. The actual number of people dying is significantly lower. An average of 182 were confirmed per day in England and 162 across the UK yesterday

The 4,000 deaths per day scenario was based on the assumption that there would be 1,000 per day in early November. The actual number of people dying is significantly lower. An average of 182 were confirmed per day in England and 162 across the UK yesterday

Professor Heneghan said this morning on BBC Radio 4's Today program: “Right now the cases are shifting in a way they weren't three weeks ago. You start plating.

& # 39; Admissions are flat and deaths are starting to flatten out. I hope there will be an update to this system tomorrow on Wednesday that will give us a clear understanding of where we are going.

"Today, ONS will continue to report excessive deaths, so the next 24 hours will provide much more useful information that should inform about whether or not a lockdown should take place."

Regarding his use of the word flatline for hospital admissions, Professor Heneghan said, “One of the things about hospital admissions is that discharges are not taken into account and you don't know who that person is, for example anyone who goes to the hospital is tested.

"If you look at the patients in hospital records, this is a much more useful measure, and if you look at that on October 31st, it was 9,213, and it dropped to 9,077 of about 130 patients for the first time on November 1st.

“This is the first drop in this data set in over a month. So I would look at the patients in the hospital, not the number of patients actually admitted, which is very variable and quite noisy in their context. & # 39;

Professor Heneghan stated that the now infamous 4,000 deaths per day graph shown on Saturday was based on data that was weeks out of date.

A model was used based on the forecast that there would be 1,000 deaths per day in early November. In reality, the daily average is below 200.

As an example of how the outbreak is slowing in places with strict lockdown rules, Professor Heneghan pointed to Liverpool.

Liverpool, which is in a local Tier 3 lockdown, is one of the hardest hit parts of the country. Hospitals in the city are exposed to more patients than in the first wave of coronavirus in March and April, and the area's ambulance service declared a "major event" and warning of serious delays last night.

Professor Heneghan said the R-value in Liverpool was "well below one" at this point. He said there is a problem in town, but cases have halved and hospital admissions have "stabilized".

He continued, “What you have are these bags across the country where trusts like Liverpool have gotten into trouble because more than half of the patients are Covid patients.

“But again, let's look at the data. The data in Liverpool shows that cases have fallen by around half. The approvals have now stabilized so there is a problem in Liverpool but the animal restriction is in fact. The people in Liverpool have cut the cases from around 490 a day to 260 a day. & # 39;

Sir Patrick and Prof. Whitty are due to be dragged before the Science and Technology Selection Committee this afternoon over claims that their Saturday artwork is out of date.

Figures from Sir Patrick, the government's chief scientific advisor, suggest there will be 4,000 deaths a day by December 20th.

What is the TRUTH about Britain's second wave?

There is no doubt that coronavirus infections are still on the rise in the UK, but mathematicians and scientists disagree on how bad the second wave really is.

A number of statistics have been released over the past 48 hours, with conflicting estimates of the number of people becoming infected with the virus, between 35,000 and 96,000 per day, and some doubts about the fateful warnings of a repeat of the disaster in March.

One of the Office for National Statistics' top Covid-19 analysts said today that cases in England are "rising sharply" while an epidemiologist behind another project said people could be "reassured" that the virus is not getting out of hand .

Of studies that estimate the number of new infections per day in England, the ONS put them at 51,900; King's College Covid Symptom Study reads 34,628; a Cambridge University "nowcast" said 55,600; and Imperial College London's government-funded REACT study put them at 96,000. The Ministry of Health's official testing program records 22,125 infections a day, but a large number is known to be overlooked with no symptoms.

All calculations have increased since their previous estimates and there is agreement that the outbreak is getting worse, but the speed at which this is happening is unclear.

In the meantime, SAGE released its weekly estimate of the R-rate today, stating that the rate of propagation has decreased. The government's scientific advisors have set the ranges for the UK and England at 1.1 to 1.3, up from 1.2 to 1.4 last week. However, they said, "SAGE is almost certain that the epidemic will continue to grow rapidly across the country."

The number of people being hospitalized and dying from coronavirus continues to rise rapidly. Currently, an average of 230 deaths per day are announced and 10,308 people hospitalized with Covid-19, an increase of more than 1,000 per day.

These will continue to rise over the coming weeks and months, even as cases slow down or even fall, officials say, as hospitalizations and deaths from infections that occur two to three weeks earlier are “burned in”.

A statistician who was not involved in any of the predictions – Professor James Naismith of Oxford University – said that there were "uncertainties" in all of them, meaning that not a single number was correct. He added, "We can be almost certain that the number of deaths per day from Covid-19 will increase over the next few weeks."

However, the October 9 data was compiled before the new tier system went into effect that helped fight back the virus.

Oxford University scientists said that if the forecast were correct there would be about 1,000 deaths a day now, but the average for last week was 265, up from 136 yesterday.

Modeling was also based on an R-rate of 1.3 to 1.5, although the government assumed it was between 1.1 and 1.3.

Top scientists said the falling infection data could be evidence that England's three-tier lockdown system is in place, slowing the rate of growth in the north and raising questions about whether number 10 needed a second national shutdown, the SAGE, the gun jumped warning, to save Christmas.

It is because the Prime Minister insisted that cases are now so high that there is "no alternative" to month-long blanket restrictions across England. He warned that otherwise, the death toll could double what it was at the previous peak.

In a statement to the Commons yesterday, he sought to ease a growing mutiny by assuring the House that the measures will legally end on December 2nd – and if they need to be extended there will be another vote.

But he was toasted by Sir Keir Starmer for refusing to lock England down for weeks while the death toll rose – before making an embarrassing U-turn.

Sir Keir said the prime minister wasted 40 days calling for a "breaker" by his own scientific experts – during that time the daily deaths rose from just 11 to 326.

"On September 21, when government scientists, Sage, recommended an urgent two- to three-week hiatus, there were 11 deaths from Covid-19 and just over 4,000 Covid infections," said Sir Keir.

The Prime Minister ignored this advice for 40 days and when he finally announced a longer and deeper national lockdown on Saturday, those numbers had risen to 326 deaths per day and 22,000 Covid cases.

“That is the human cost of government inaction. The reality is that the two pillars of the Prime Minister's strategy, the £ 12 billion track and trace and regional restrictions, not only did not stop the second wave but were swept away by it.

“In every phase the Prime Minister was too slow behind the curve. At each stage, he has declined the challenge, ignored advice, and put what he hoped for over what happened.

“In every phase it is promised too much and not delivered enough. To refuse the advice of one's own scientists for 40 days has been a disastrous failure of leadership and judgment. & # 39;

The intervention came when Mr Johnson was exposed to the wrath of Conservative MPs who were angry about the "evil" new rules. They were classified as "unimaginable" and compared to the actions of a "totalitarian regime".

A crunch vote on the lockdown plan is due on Wednesday. Dozens of Tories threaten to defy the rules. But Sir Keir has said Labor will vote with the government, which means the lockdown is likely to go through despite the Tory uprising.

Prior to the statement, spokesman Lindsay Hoyle pinpointed government leaks that prevented the news from being released to parliament first. He insisted that the perpetrator must be identified and if it is a MP they must personally apologize to the House.

Statistics released this week have shown a wide range of possible daily infections in England, from just 34,000 according to an estimate by King & # 39; s College London to 96,000 according to a government-run REACT study

Statistics released this week have shown a wide range of possible daily infections in England, from just 34,000 according to an estimate by King & # 39; s College London to 96,000 according to a government-run REACT study

Boris Johnson yesterday asked Tories to stick to his coronavirus strategy as he defended his plan to push England into a new national lockdown

Keir Starmer

On the Commons yesterday, Boris Johnson was toasted by Keir Starmer for refusing to lockdown England for weeks while the death toll rose – before making an embarrassing U-turn

Scientists and cabinet pigeons have been accused of extraordinary choreography to force Mr Johnson into the draconian lockdown – amid warnings that could destroy the economy.

KEIR STARMER ROASTS BORIS JOHNSON FOR IGNORING THE CIRCUIT BREAKER COUNCIL

Boris Johnson was toasted yesterday by Keir Starmer for refusing to lock England down for weeks while the death toll rose – before making an embarrassing U-turn.

In a statement to the Commons, the Prime Minister insisted that cases were now so high that there was "no alternative" to the months-long blanket restrictions across England. He warned that otherwise, the death toll could double what it was at the previous peak.

But he tried to mitigate a growing mutiny by assuring the House that the measures will legally end on December 2nd – and if they need to be extended there will be another vote.

However, Sir Keir launched a bitter attack on Mr Johnson for failing to get the action started quickly.

"On September 21, when government scientists, Sage, recommended an urgent two- to three-week hiatus, there were 11 deaths from Covid-19 and just over 4,000 Covid infections," said Sir Keir.

The Prime Minister ignored this advice for 40 days and when he finally announced a longer and deeper national lockdown on Saturday, those numbers had risen to 326 deaths per day and 22,000 Covid cases.

“That is the human cost of government inaction. The reality is that the two pillars of the Prime Minister's strategy, the £ 12 billion track and trace and regional restrictions, not only did not stop the second wave but were swept away by it.

“In every phase the Prime Minister was too slow behind the curve. At each stage, he has declined the challenge, ignored advice, and put what he hoped for over what happened.

“In every phase it is promised too much and not delivered enough. To refuse the advice of one's own scientists for 40 days has been a disastrous failure of leadership and judgment. & # 39;

MPs are furious at the concerted efforts to get the Prime Minister to enforce fluctuating restrictions in England from December 2nd on when it was revealed that Science Chief Sir Patrick Vallance gave reporters a bloody briefing on Friday making the demands after prompt disclosure, SAGE underscored Lockdown – alongside numbers suggesting more than 85,000 people could die this winter.

The bomb was assessed an hour before the Prime Minister's mighty "quad", Michael Gove, Matt Hancock and Rishi Sunak, met around 3:30 pm to discuss the move.

Sir Patrick told stunned reporters that it was too late for a two-week breaker and that a four-week lockdown similar to that introduced in France was the best way to control the R number. Those attending the briefing had little doubt that national pressure would come.

In fact, Mr Johnson had still hesitated on the matter that morning when Secretary of State Dominic Raab was dispatched to defend the local "Tiers" system on the radio waves. The prime minister "even debated against himself" about whether the damage from the lockdown during the "quad" meeting would be worse than the illness.

Faced with terrible predictions from Sir Patrick and Chris Whitty, he put the wheels in motion for a month-long lockdown.

Within hours, the elite group's preliminary ruling was relayed to the Daily Mail and Times before the entire cabinet was informed to prevent the prime minister from changing his mind.

On Saturday morning, the BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg announced details of two key documents shown to the "Quad". This is a controversial prediction that the daily death toll would reach 4,000 a day and NHS hospitals would be overwhelmed.

Mr Johnson assured MPs that he will attempt to loosen the curbs and return to the localized tiered system on Dec. 2 after Mr Gove suggested renewing the lockdown yesterday.

Mr Sunak tried this morning to reassure angry Tory backers by insisting that lockdowns end legally at this point.

He said the "hope and expectation" was that by then the virus would be at low enough levels to loosen the curbs, although he admitted they would continue to be checked.

However, government sources warn that the lockdown could last well into the next month if hospital stays remain high and that "all bets are closed" by Christmas.

Sir Keir Starmer has said Labor will vote with the government, which means the lockdown will likely sail through the Commons.

But the prime minister has come under fire on his own side and will face fierce opposition from Tory hawkish backbenches as they prepare to rebel against the measures.

Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the powerful 1922 committee, headed the MPs backlash, telling the BBC's Westminster Hour last night: “I think the aspect of lockdown restrictions that bothers me most would be the level of interference with what we usually see as basic human rights; Freedom of association, the right to family life, the government is already telling us who we can sleep with or not, depending on whether they are in an established relationship or not.

“If such measures were taken in a totalitarian country around the world, we would denounce them as a form of evil. And here the abolition of the fundamental freedoms of the people proceeds almost without comment. & # 39;

Ministers warn that all bets are closed at Christmas unless the lock works

Cabinet ministers have warned that all bets are closed when families can celebrate Christmas together if Boris Johnson's national lockdown fails to curb coronavirus infection rates.

The Prime Minister's shutdown across England is slated to begin Thursday. The government's goal is to lift the blanket restrictions on December 2nd.

However, the government has not guaranteed that this will be a firm exit date, amid concerns that the closure could be extended over the festive period and even into the New Year.

Ministers believe the "delay" between the point of infection and the time people can become seriously ill could mean that deaths continue to rise even until the lockdown ends.

This could result in the draconian measures having to be maintained until early 2021 or beyond.

Tory's ex-minister, Sir Desmond Swayne, said it would take "tremendous persuasion to vote for this disastrous course of action".

Former Cabinet Secretary Esther McVey said she would vote against her because the "lockdown cure" does more harm than Covid.

Backbencher Peter Bone told BBC Radio 4's Today program this morning that he has not yet decided how to vote on the measures outlined by Prime Minister Boris Johnson when they are discussed in the House of Commons on Wednesday.

Speaking at the press conference on “illegible graphics”, Mr Bone said: “At the moment I was not convinced that I should vote with the government on Wednesday.

Some of those on the back seats even told Mr. Johnson to leave. He has time to borrow, totally incapable, ”a source told The Times.

"I think it could be Suez," a former cabinet minister told the newspaper in a reference to the 1950s crisis that led to Anthony Eden's resignation.

A minister told the newspaper: "He has been overrun by the virus and his" advisors ". They are angry, they misunderstand the parliamentary party and, most importantly, they are totally, totally shitty. Last week – with the argument about free school meals and so on – we lost the next election. & # 39;

The dispute over the leaks from the & # 39; Quad & # 39; has become so serious that No10 threatens to call the police.

A cabinet source told the telegraph, "They're attacking the leak. You will do everything possible. “If you have to get the police to do it, they will. That is the degree of seriousness with which this is handled.

“There is a feeling, especially among cabinet ministers, that if they find the leak, they should be absolutely punished. You can imagine how the Chief Whip is feeling. & # 39;

However, a Whitehall source said, “The next three or four months will be very difficult.

“Hopefully we can ease things up a bit after a month, but that is not certain and we still have to hold the brakes to a certain extent.

“So far, Tier Three is the only one that has been shown to work at all. It reduces the R-rate – very slowly, and the rate is still above one – but it works to keep things from getting worse.

Questions about dossier forecast of 4,000 deaths per day

Claims that 4,000 people could die from coronavirus by next month could be four or five times too high and not reflect the current situation, experts warn.

The shocking number was unveiled by Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance at Saturday's television briefing where Boris Johnson announced the UK's second lockdown.

However, there are concerns that it is out of date and inaccurate. SAGE is accused of misleading the public and MPs by selecting the scariest dates.

Professor Carl Heneghan of the Center for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University said he "couldn't understand why they used these data".

The forecast could be four or five times too high, he said, given that the UK currently has an average of 1,000 deaths per day. In reality, according to the Ministry of Health, the daily average on October 22nd and 28th was 182 per day.

The number that appeared as the worst case on a graph with three other possible scenarios was created by statisticians from the University of Cambridge and Public Health England, who have since revised their numbers and reduced the possible number of deaths. The team's forecasts are not published online like some of their other work, but rather sent directly to SPI-M, a subgroup of SAGE, to do with what they choose.

The potential 4,000 deaths per day if no changes were made to the restrictions were almost double the second worst case, making them more than 2,000 per day.

The lowest estimates in the no-action scenario put deaths at just under 2,000 per day, and all were higher than the high in the first wave, when most deaths were recorded on April 8 (1,073).

'With Tier Two, it's a lot harder to say it works. Maybe it would be if compliance was better, but so far the R-rate is not reduced – it is not a solution. & # 39;

Mr Sunak is widely recognized as the Cabinet's leading buzzard on the need to keep the economy going and has been forced to reject claims he threatened to resign.

However, on BBC Radio 4's Today program, Sunak said when medical and scientific experts briefed senior ministers last week, it was clear that the only "responsible" course was to impose a national lockdown.

"What is clear is that the virus is spreading even faster than the most sensible case of our scientific advisors," he said.

"And the models indicated that if we did not act, deaths in this country would be at levels above spring levels – a peak in mortality that is far higher," said the Chancellor.

"And we have seen incidents, even in areas where they are currently low, increase very quickly, which would mean the NHS would be overwhelmed in a few weeks."

Mr. Sunak strongly warned that unemployment will rise due to the decline.

"Almost three quarters of a million people have tragically lost their jobs and unfortunately many more," he said.

"That will happen because of the restrictions we have put in place."

Mr Suank tried to reassure angry Tory backers by insisting that lockdowns end legally on December 2nd.

He said the "hope and expectation" was that by then the virus would be at low enough levels to loosen the curbs, although he admitted they would continue to be checked.

Urged when asked if the R-Phrase was the key to lifting the restrictions on that date, Rishi Sunak said, “It would be wrong to say that there is a single indicator.

"There are a number of different things that we look at."

When asked whether the support for the self-employed would increase from currently around 40 percent to 80 percent of the usual profit, the Chancellor emphasized that the subsidies cover a longer period than the holiday program.

Recovery, an anti-bans campaign group, sends its message, "Bans won't work", to the Houses of Parliament in Westminster

Recovery, an anti-bans campaign group, sends its message, "Bans won't work", to the Houses of Parliament in Westminster

Stocks tumble on lock messages

Boris Johnson's new lockdown plan dropped shares in retail and leisure companies yesterday as the stock market reacted to his hastily published plans.

The owners of British Airways, IAG, Wetherspoons, Cineworld, JD Sports, EasyJet, and pub and restaurant owners Mitchells and Butlers saw their share price decline sharply this morning.

Airlines, pubs and non-essential retail stores are expected to be frozen back for at least four weeks starting Thursday.

But there were also winners from plans to close all non-essential retailers by December 2nd.

Ocado, Just Eat Takeaway, Tesco, Sainsbury & # 39; s, and B&Q owners Kingfisher all saw stocks surge as investors expected sales for online grocery and DIY businesses to surge.

Ocado announced that profits will now be higher than previously thought. Within an hour of the stock market opening at 8 a.m., stocks rose nearly 8 percent.

"In terms of travel, the 40 percent will increase to reflect the fact that at least one of those months of support for those who are gainfully employed will be at a higher level," Sunak said.

Mr Gove said yesterday that it was his "burning hope" that the restrictions could end as planned – but admitted that an extension might be necessary.

He said ministers would be guided by the facts, adding, "We need to bring the R-phrase below 1."

When asked if an extension was possible, he told Sky News: "Yes."

The prime minister is said to have been torn apart by the decision to be re-banned for the effects on people's lives and work. However, he felt like he had no choice when presented with data showing that within a few weeks the NHS would be on track to be overwhelmed.

One ally said: “It is heartbreaking to do things that mean companies are closing and people are losing their jobs. He's a conservative in the free market who doesn't want to do any of this.

“However, we are talking about a situation where the NHS cannot accept new patients through the door. You speak of people dying in hospital corridors and parking lots. It is morally impossible for a government to sanction this. And it's likely not politically viable. & # 39;

Troubled Tory MPs last night called on the government to come up with an exit plan or alternative strategy to ensure the country is not caught in a cycle of repeated lockdowns.

Charles Walker, who represents Broxbourne in Hertfordshire, said: “The lockdown is like a nightmare we will never wake up from – a dream where every door you open to escape leads back to the same place. We can't do the same thing because it doesn't work. & # 39;

A cabinet secretary warned the Times that if the R-rate stays high, Christmas plans will be ruined for many.

One economist predicted that every day the lockdown continues, £ 1.8 billion could be wiped off the value of the economy.

Lord Rose, the former head of Marks & Spencer, said the reintroduction of restrictions was a disaster.

Churches require exemptions from curbs

Senior clergy are writing to the government asking why key elements of services have not been exempted from the lockdown.

The Archbishops of Canterbury and York, as well as the Bishop of London, say they will also highlight the "crucial role" churches play in the ward.

In a letter to the Church of England (CoE) clergy, Justin Welby, Stephen Cottrell and Sarah Mullally praised the members' "energy, hard work and creativity" in allowing the service to continue during the pandemic.

"We are grateful that the new guidelines, which will be introduced on Thursday, will not only allow churches to remain open to private prayer, but also allow online services to be broadcast from the church building," they said.

"We were cautious – perhaps overly – on this issue during the first lockdown, but on this second lockdown we want to encourage church buildings to remain open to private prayers wherever possible."

The bishops said church leaders would receive more resources and training to enable them to conduct services online.

However, they added that the use of sacraments was an essential part of physical services and should not be viewed by the government as an "optional extra".

"I estimate that you can have two to three weeks of recovery time for each day you go on," he added. "So if it takes a month, it might be a year of recovery."

Mark Littlewood of the Institute of Economic Affairs said, "We have now reached the point – both in terms of our health and our wealth – where the cure is worse than the disease."

The prime minister has been warned by his key scientific and medical advisers that the NHS could be overwhelmed by Covid-19.

So far, however, the Ministry of Health has refused to publish the dossier that helped push England back into the background.

The forecast of 4,000 possible deaths per day by Christmas – from the University of Cambridge in collaboration with Public Health England – significantly exceeded all other estimates.

In the meantime, high-ranking clergymen are writing to the government asking why "certain exceptions" have not been made.

The Archbishops of Canterbury and York, as well as the Bishop of London, say they will also highlight the "crucial role" churches play in the ward.

In a letter to the Church of England (CoE) clergy, Justin Welby, Stephen Cottrell and Sarah Mullally praised the members' "energy, hard work and creativity" in allowing the service to continue during the pandemic.

"We are grateful that the new guidelines, which will be introduced on Thursday, will not only allow churches to remain open to private prayer but also allow online services to be broadcast from the church building," they said.

"We were cautious – perhaps overly – on this issue during the first lockdown, but on this second lockdown we want to encourage church buildings to remain open to private prayers wherever possible."

The bishops said church leaders would receive more resources and training to enable them to conduct services online.

However, they added that the use of sacraments was an essential part of physical services and should not be viewed by the government as an "optional extra".

Calling the Boffins Bluff: How No10's Experts Manipulated Data and Drew Biased Conclusions to "Scare" England into Banning, writes ROSS CLARK

It was the Halloween horror that no one expected: a series of jaw-dropping graphs and charts that were unveiled at the Downing Street press conference on Saturday that supposedly showed the Covid-19 pandemic was out of control and a second national lock was required.

But do the graphs and charts really support this? ROSS CLARK finds out …

THE HEATING CARD

This graphic is intended to show that some hospitals – shown in red – already had more Covid 19 patients than at the height of the first wave in spring.

Hospitals depicted in Bernstein have more than half as many virus patients as they did back then, while Green shows hospitals with less than half the patients who had them at the height of the first wave.

This graphic is intended to show that some hospitals - shown in red - already had more Covid 19 patients than at the height of the first wave in spring

This graphic is intended to show that some hospitals – shown in red – already had more Covid 19 patients than at the height of the first wave in spring

The graphic certainly gave the impression that the hospitals were almost overcrowded.

But the truth is nowhere near as terrible.

Während 29 Krankenhäuser auf der Folie angezeigt werden, umfasst der von NHS England veröffentlichte vollständige Datensatz tatsächlich 482 NHS- und private Krankenhäuser in England – von denen mindestens 232 (und wahrscheinlich mehr, da einige Einträge leer gelassen wurden) keinen einzigen Covid hatten -19 Patient am 27. Oktober.

Dies ist kaum überraschend, da offizielle Zahlen zeigten, dass am 31. Oktober 9.213 Patienten mit der Krankheit im Krankenhaus waren, verglichen mit 17.172 zu Beginn des Frühlings.

Schon damals waren die Krankenhäuser noch lange nicht voll und die Nightingale-Einheiten praktisch leer.

Während 29 Krankenhäuser auf der Folie angezeigt werden, umfasst der von NHS England veröffentlichte vollständige Datensatz tatsächlich 482 NHS- und private Krankenhäuser in England, von denen mindestens 232 am 27. Oktober keinen einzigen Covid-19-Patienten hatten

Während 29 Krankenhäuser auf der Folie angezeigt werden, umfasst der vollständige Datensatz, der von NHS England veröffentlicht wurde, tatsächlich 482 NHS- und private Krankenhäuser in England, von denen mindestens 272 am 27. Oktober keinen einzigen Covid-19-Patienten hatten

WO FÄLLE TATSÄCHLICH FALLEN

Chris Whitty enthüllte zwei Diagramme, die zeigen, wo in England die Covid-19-Infektionen zunahmen, wobei braune und gelbe Zonen hervorhoben, wo Fälle aufgetreten waren, und blaue, die zeigten, dass sie gesunken waren.

"Praktisch im ganzen Land gibt es jetzt eine signifikante Steigerungsrate", kündigte der Chief Medical Officer an.

Die Karte scheint sich jedoch zu unterscheiden. Tatsächlich zeigt es, dass es in England 34 Distrikte gibt, in denen Fälle statisch sind oder fallen.

Zwei Diagramme zeigen, wo in England die Covid-19-Infektionen zunahmen, wobei braune und gelbe Zonen hervorheben, wo Fälle aufgetreten sind, und blau, dass sie gesunken sind

Zwei Diagramme zeigen, wo in England die Covid-19-Infektionen zunahmen, wobei braune und gelbe Zonen hervorheben, wo Fälle aufgetreten sind, und blaue zeigen, dass sie gesunken sind

Am bemerkenswertesten ist, dass – obwohl es schwer zu erkennen ist und erst beim Vergrößern des Diagramms offensichtlich wird – die Fälle in der vergangenen Woche in Merseyside stark zurückgegangen sind und in Teilen von Liverpool um mehr als 60 Prozent zurückgegangen sind.

Dies ist insofern von Bedeutung, als Liverpool als erster Teil des Landes Tier-3-Beschränkungen unterworfen wurde.

Aber wenn solche Maßnahmen zu funktionieren scheinen, warum ist dann die zweite nationale Sperrung erforderlich?

IST WACHSTUM WIRKLICH EXPONENTIAL?

Eine Folie – basierend auf Daten aus Tests an einer randomisierten Stichprobe der Bevölkerung – zeigte, dass die Prävalenz der Krankheit in den letzten Wochen extrem schnell gestiegen ist.

Die Grafik deutete jedoch tatsächlich darauf hin, dass die Rate nicht mehr exponentiell anstieg, im Gegensatz zu dem, was Sir Patrick Vallance, der wissenschaftliche Chefberater, in seinem Briefing vom 14. September vorausgesagt hatte.

Während die Grafik zeigt, dass sich die Fälle von Covid Mitte September fast jede Woche verdoppelten, zeigen die jüngsten Zahlen, dass es zweieinhalb Wochen gedauert hat, bis sich ein weiterer zweifacher Anstieg ergab.

Während die Grafik zeigt, dass sich die Fälle von Covid Mitte September fast jede Woche verdoppelten, zeigen die jüngsten Zahlen, dass es zweieinhalb Wochen gedauert hat, bis sich ein weiterer zweifacher Anstieg ergab

Während die Grafik zeigt, dass sich die Fälle von Covid Mitte September fast jede Woche verdoppelten, zeigen die jüngsten Zahlen, dass es zweieinhalb Wochen gedauert hat, bis sich ein weiterer zweifacher Anstieg ergab

REGIONALE PREISE

Eine weitere Folie besteht aus regionalen Diagrammen, die auf Daten des Amtes für nationale Statistiken über die Prävalenz von Covid-19 in der Allgemeinbevölkerung basieren.

Professor Whitty kündigte dies als Beweis dafür an, dass "es in jedem Teil des Landes eine Zunahme gibt, außer möglicherweise im Nordosten, wo sie zusätzliche Maßnahmen ergriffen haben – und es gibt einige Anzeichen für eine Abflachung, aber nicht so weit vom Fall".

Die Grafik auf der Folie stimmte jedoch nicht damit überein. Stattdessen zeigte sich ein deutlicher Rückgang der Infektionszahlen im Nordosten.

Darüber hinaus ist die Kurve in London, den West Midlands und im Südosten deutlich abgeflacht.

Der Virus verlangsamt sich unter den am stärksten gefährdeten

Eine weitere Grafik zeigt Woche für Woche bestätigte Covid-19-Fälle für jede Region Englands, aufgeteilt nach Altersgruppen mit unter 16-Jährigen unten und über 60-Jährigen oben.

Professor Whitty benutzte es, um zu behaupten, dass die Infektion "im Laufe der Zeit stetig zunimmt, so dass sie von keiner Altersgruppe eingeschränkt wird".

Die Welligkeitsänderung in den Farben schien dies sicherlich zu unterstützen.

Bei näherer Betrachtung – nur sichtbar, wenn Sie das Bild vergrößern – wird jedoch deutlich, dass die Tabelle in jedem farbigen Feld Zahlen für Infektionen pro 100.000 Personen enthält.

What they show is that, crucially, rates of infection are growing much more slowly among the vulnerable over-60s than among young people in September, when there was a surge among students.

It has taken 24 days for over-60 cases to double in the North East and the North West, and 18 days in London.

In the North West new cases have been flat for four days – suggesting the pandemic is not ripping through the over-60s as previously assumed.

R RATE IN REVERSE

The R number is the average number infected by a single carrier. If the figure is below one, the epidemic withers; above one and it grows.

This slide clearly showed that the R number had fallen back in the past three weeks to between 1.1 and 1.3 – suggesting that while the epidemic was still growing, it was doing so at a slower rate.

Yet despite this encouraging sign, Sir Patrick used the slide as an opportunity to explain that the Government has asked academics to produce scenarios of what might happen 'on assumptions that R stays above one and goes between 1.3 to 1.5 and possibly up over the course of the winter'.

But why would they use such an inflated value, especially given the recent restrictions in Tier Three and Three areas? Naturally, he didn't say.

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