As most major national polls show that Joe Biden is a towering lead over Donald Trump on election day, a small group of pollsters has warned that "shy" Trump voters could pave the president's path to victory.
Among those who suggest Trump's prospects are being underestimated is Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group, one of the few bipartisan outlets that predicted a Republican victory in 2016 after discovering Trump in major battlefield states Michigan and Pennsylvania led the way.
This year, Trafalgar's analysis in the final days leading up to the elections again found a small head start for Trump in both states, contradicting almost every other major poll.
The electoral industry was embarrassed in the last presidential election after forecasts severely underestimated Trump's chances of winning.
Cahaly said it was "quite possible" that this will also happen in 2020 as a hidden Trump vote was overlooked.
"There are more (shy Trump voters) than last time and it's not even a competition," Cahaly told The Hill on Monday.
As most major national polls show that Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump on election day, a small group of pollsters has warned that "shy" Trump voters could pave the president's path to victory
Trafalgar Group, one of the few non-partisan branches predicting Trump's victory in 2016, is forecasting the same result for this year. A Trafalgar poll published on Sunday (pictured) found that Trump received 46.5 percent of the vote, compared with 44.1 percent from Biden
Susquehanna Polling and Research has also promoted the hidden Trump voter theory as the recent poll dwarfed Trump and Biden in Wisconsin, giving the Florida president a four point lead.
"There are many voters who do not want to admit that they are voting for a man who has been labeled a racist," Susquehanna analyst Jim Lee told WFMZ this week.
& # 39; This submerged Trump factor is very real. We got hold of it and I'm really disappointed that others haven't. & # 39;
"There are more (shy Trump voters) than last time and it's not even a competition," Trafalgar analyst Robert Cahaly (pictured) told The Hill
But many pollsters have dismissed the idea of Trump voters hiding, in part by denying the reliability of Trafalgar's electoral methods.
"(Trafalgar) doesn't disclose their 'proprietary digital methods' so I can't really evaluate what they do," Jon McHenry, a Republican pollster with North Star Opinion Research, told The Hill.
"They are far enough away that in a year we will all remember whether they were very right or very wrong."
McHenry said he thought Trump voters would be unlikely to lie about their voting plans if approached by pollsters, but acknowledged that data could be skewed if Trump voters were less likely to participate in polls overall.
He said, however, that this type of "skewed response pattern" would not necessarily lead to worse projections for Trump.
He cited Pennsylvania as an example of a state where Democrats are less likely to speak to pollers than Republicans, meaning they may be underrepresented in results.
McHenry said that while he cannot rule out response bias, he is "skeptical".
"It would certainly not be enough to explain the national deficits that we are seeing," said McHenry.
A Morning Consult poll on Monday found that Biden leads Trump in five battlefield states
Biden heads into Election Day with a string of positive news on the election front – with new polls on Monday showing he leads Trump in Florida and Ohio – and a massive poll that gives him the edge in battlefield states.
New Quinnipiac University polls released Monday gave him a five point lead in Florida (47 to 42), a four point lead in Ohio (47 to 43), while a new Marist / NBC poll gave him a lead in Pennsylvania got 5 points (51 to 46). and over a majority there.
Of the big battlefields, Biden may be able to endure the day at Electoral College without Florida and Ohio – which at least gives him the opportunity to score a pivotal victory if the wind blows his way on Tuesday, even with a record two-thirds of the vote already in.
Biden leads out of error in several major battlefield states in a poll released the day before election day. That gives him enough head start to take over the White House.
Even deep red Texas seems up in the air with a tie between the Democratic candidate and Trump.
Florida, the most influential swing state with 29 Electoral College votes, and Pennsylvania, with 20 Electoral College votes, are two must-see states for Trump to secure another term in office.
According to a Morning Consult poll published Monday October 22-31, Biden is six points ahead of Biden in Florida and nine points in Pennsylvania.
The Morning Consult poll polled 4,451 likely voters in Florida and 2,686 likely voters in Pennsylvania.
Support for Trump has declined since the coronavirus pandemic began in Morning Consult's national poll
National population breakdown of the 14,663 likely voters who asked for support in the presidential election
Trump could find more encouraging news in two Arizona polls, with an NBC / Maris poll showing a 48 percent tie and a 49-47 lead on Joe Biden in the latest Reuters / Ipsos poll in the state. They helped reduce Biden's lead in the survey average to half a percentage point.
The results in Pennsylvania, possibly the most momentous state for Trump's victory, are likely to be unknown on election night as the Supreme Court ruled last month that Keystone State can accept and count postal ballots until Friday, three days later.
Morning Consult's forecast for Pennsylvania is a little rosier for Biden than Monmouth University's, which was also released on Monday and gives the Democrat a five to seven point lead.
If there is a high turnout, it means he will win 51 to 44 percent. If there was a "low turnout" – which could include large-scale disqualification of mail-in ballots – he would win 50 to 45 percent. Monmouth's error rate is 4.4 percent.
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