The UK today recorded the deaths of 241 people with Covid-19, the highest number since June 5, when it was confirmed an additional 21,331 people tested positive.
The deaths represent a 68.5 percent increase from the 143 confirmed last Tuesday, while the cases represent a 23.8 percent increase to 17,234. The number of people hospitalized rose to 1,019 on October 15, data released today showed. This was the first time since May that it was in four digits.
All the figures show that the second wave of coronavirus has continued to plague the UK with cases, hospital admissions and deaths since schools, universities and offices returned in September.
However, a closer look at the data suggests that while the number of people diagnosed is still increasing, it is increasing more slowly than in the spring – and hospitalizations and deaths are also increasing more slowly.
The number of new cases, counted by the day the tests were done, declined for the first time in a month last week, as it fell from an average of 16,550 on October 11 to 16,497 the next day. This was the first drop since September 11th, but the next day it rose again to 16,648 on October 13th.
And the rate of resurgence has leveled off. In the week ending October 12, daily cases rose only 6 percent after rising 49 percent the week before. Separate data also shows that infection rates have fallen in some of the worst hit areas, including Newcastle, Nottingham and Manchester.
Hospital admissions are only increasing a fifth the rate they had when the UK was hit by the first wave of Covid-19 when they tripled in a week, and deaths are also rising much more slowly, statistics also show.
Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK's senior scientific advisor, who issued a surprising warning that the country could reach 50,000 cases a day by mid-October if nothing is done, said on a television briefing last week that the crisis in the UK "has not subsided" be. to where it was in March and April.
Official data support his point of view and counteract the rising number of cases, which, according to mass tests, are incorrectly higher than in spring. In reality, there are only about a quarter of the cases where more than 100,000 people have been infected each day – the best estimate right now is 28,000 cases per day.
The numbers show that disease recurrence is more of a wave than a full blown second wave, and may not bring about the overwhelming number of NHS patients and deaths that experts fear.
The number of new cases counted daily decreased from an average of 16,398 on October 11 to 16,231 on October 12. This was the first time since September 11th after a month of continuous increases (Department of Health data counted by date of swab removal).
The number of newly infected patients in need of NHS care nearly tripled in the ten days between March 23 and April 1, but has increased only 42 percent in the last ten days
Daily deaths from Covid-19 are slightly above 100 per day in the latest data, compared to peaks of more than 1,000 per day at the height of the crisis in March and April
COVID-19 outbreaks are slowing in half of student areas
Half of England's major university cities are already on the other side of their coronavirus outbreak, analysis of official data suggests.
In major university cities with more than 20,000 students but excluding London, infections skyrocketed in late September as students and teachers returned to education in droves.
The arrival and intermingling of thousands of strangers from different parts of the country is believed to have exacerbated the spread of the virus in these areas and helped the disease to migrate to the wider community.
According to an analysis of numbers from Public Health England, the average number of daily registered cases is declining in nine of the 18 largest university cities.
The promising statistics show that the six areas where the virus rose the most at the start of the new term – Manchester, Newcastle, Liverpool, Nottingham, Leeds and Sheffield – report fewer infections than they did a week ago. And in the university towns, where cases are still on the rise, the rate at which they are increasing has gradually slowed down.
The rolling average of 7-day cases per day in Newcastle – where university students make up nearly a fifth of the city's 270,000 residents – is currently 150.7, according to figures up to October 12, the most recent snapshot. This was a third less than the 236 daily infections reported the week before.
NEWCASTLE ON TYNE
The seven-day moving average is believed to be the most accurate method of scoring outbreaks because it takes into account today's variability in infections. In Nottingham – the country's current Covid-19 hotspot – the average daily cases fell by almost 30 percent over the same period – from 476.1 to 338.3.
Manchester, due to enter a level three lockdown today, has seen its rolling average number of cases drop in the seven days since Sept. 28. At that point, the city was recording 419 cases per day, but that has since fallen to 335.4. The downtrend will cast doubt on whether the toughest lockdown bracket is really warranted.
In Sheffield and Leeds, two other hotspots where local leaders are talking to the government about tightening Covid-19 restrictions, cases have been falling steadily for a week, suggesting a downward trend rather than a slip . In Sheffield, the average daily cases dropped from 414.4 on October 5 to 328.7 by October 12, while Leeds daily cases fell from 483.6 to 419 over the same period.
Exeter, which put stricter lockdown restrictions on officials ruling outbreaks there for college dormitories, saw one of its most dramatic drops in daily cases in the week ending October 12, with infections nearly halving from 77.9 to 41.9.
Official test data from the Department of Health shows that on October 12, the last day reliable sample test data is available, the average number of positive tests fell from 16,398 to 16,231.
That decline, although only one percent, was the first time it had decreased since September 11th. Between October 1 and October 11, the daily average had risen from 7,097 to over 16,000.
Later preliminary data for October 13-14, which is not yet complete and therefore expected to rise significantly, suggest the average is on its way to falling even further.
The number of positive tests announced daily continues to increase. The daily average for the past week was 17,649. However, this is affected by data lags, and these results are scraped together from several days of testing, with some stretching over a week or more.
The above dates refer to the sample date, i.e. the day the person removed the swab and are therefore not affected by the daily fluctuations in reporting.
NHS data also shows that the number of Covid-19 patients being hospitalized is increasing significantly more slowly than in the first wave in March and April.
The number of newly infected patients in need of NHS care nearly tripled in just ten days between March 23 and April 1, climbing from 1,271 to 3,564 on the worst day ever.
That was the first week after the UK's draconian lockdown was announced and came roughly two weeks before the peak of deaths, with 1,122 deaths announced on April 11th.
In the last 10 days – between October 6th and 15th – registrations increased by only 42 percent from 693 to 988.
The slower increase in hospital admissions is one of the most reliable ways to compare the rate of this outbreak to that of March and April. No public testing was conducted during the spring, so comparing positive cases is not useful.
The number of approvals will increase more slowly this time around as there are fewer cases overall – up to 28,000 people contract the virus every day in England alone, compared to 100,000 to 150,000 at the end of March – and possibly also because different groups of people are now being infected.
Much of the infections currently diagnosed in England occur in young people who are significantly less likely to develop symptoms or serious illness if they have coronavirus.
The latest data from Public Health England shows that in the week leading up to October 11th, around 250 positive Covid-19 tests were performed per 100,000 people in 10-30 year olds, while fewer than 55 people were in their 70s.
Older people are likely to take more precautionary measures to protect themselves from the virus because they know it poses a greater threat to them, while the young – back in schools, universities, and at work – are more carefree.
Sir Patrick Vallance said last week that social distancing is preventing the second wave from getting as bad as the first.
Commenting on the virus reproduction rate (R), which is between 1.3 and 1.5 in the UK, the senior scientific advisor said, “You can see that the R has not returned to where it was and where it would be in an unrestrained epidemic of this disease that would be at about three.
“So it's gone up, the epidemic is growing, probably between four and seven percent a day, but the R hasn't gone up properly, and it's not because everyone has already taken action. & # 39;
A similar trend is evident in coronavirus deaths, which quadrupled from 206 the day Boris Johnson imposed the lockdown on 913 in early April.
For comparison: The number of deaths rose from 73 to 119 between October 6 and 15 – a significantly smaller increase of 63 percent.
The number of deaths is usually the last measure to rise. It occurs three to four weeks after the cases spike as people become seriously ill after contracting the disease and the time they spend in hospital.
Five weeks after the first wave of the coronavirus began, intensive care admissions in hospitals were up to ten times higher than after the same period in the second wave. It is known that treatments have improved and significantly fewer patients are ventilated
The spring coronavirus deaths have pushed the number of people dying from all causes well above the national average for the season. However, since then they have fallen back to normal levels and rose again slightly in the second wave
Large numbers of coronavirus outbreaks in nursing homes during the first wave of the virus, compounded by the lack of protective equipment and inadequate testing, fueled the accelerated death toll in the UK – more than 14,000 nursing home residents are known to have died in Covid-19 England
In line with the lower number of outbreaks in nursing homes, fewer coronavirus cases are now being detected in the elderly, who are most at risk of dying if they contract the virus. Instead, the current outbreak is being driven by people in their twenties and late teens
The survival rates of Covid-19 patients in the intensive care unit have improved since the first wave of the coronavirus, partly due to the discovery that the steroid already in use, dexamethasone, can reduce the risk of death in critically ill patients by around a third
BORIS will force a bigger manager in three stages
The daily number of coronavirus cases, counted by the date the sample was taken, has been decreasing in key cities in recent days
Boris Johnson stands ready to announce the third tier lockdown for Greater Manchester tonight after desperate haggling with Andy Burnham in the final ditch failed.
The region's prime minister and mayor made one final offer to beat up a bailout package in a phone call after the noon time limit expired. Mr Johnson reportedly increased his business support offer from £ 55m to £ 60m.
But Mr Burnham asked for £ 65 million and there was no breakthrough in the series. Community Secretary Robert Jenrick confirmed that discussions have now ended.
"I am disappointed that, despite realizing the severity of the situation, the mayor was unwilling to take the necessary steps to control the spread of the virus in Greater Manchester and reach an agreement with the government," he said.
Mr Johnson will announce at a news conference at 5:00 p.m. that tier three restrictions, which include closing pubs and restaurants and banning households from mixing indoors, will be in place anyway.
Mr Burnham earlier railed against the government's "provocative" midday ultimatum that came after a week of bitter money arguments.
However, he admitted that if Mr Johnson forced the matter, he would have to abide by the law and said he would give the "penny pinching" government one final number. The overall government package for Greater Manchester, including contact tracing assistance and the previous second stage bailout, is expected to approach £ 100million.
In a grim warning, he said, "I would predict everyone will end up in Tier 3 at some point during the winter – what we need is a fair financial framework for Tier 3."
Talks are also under way with South Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire and West Yorkshire to join the top tier, although announcements are not expected today.
Mr Burnham also touched on "selective" numbers highlighted by Downing Street, which suggested that Greater Manchester hospitals could be overwhelmed in weeks if tougher measures were not taken. He insisted that the occupancy of the intensive care beds at this time of year was approximately normal at 80 percent.
However, new questions have been raised about the need for the drastic move, as official data shows that Nottingham, Newcastle, Sheffield and Manchester are among the cities where cases plateaued after spiking in late September when thousands of college students and college students , staff have started pouring back into universities. Infection rates in all four cities have been falling for several days.
Although the death toll will continue to rise – UK Assistant Medical Director Professor Jonathan Van-Tam said more case deaths have been “branded” in recent weeks – there are signs that the number is rising start to slow down.
Official figures show coronavirus infections are on the decline in some of England's largest cities, including Manchester, despite Health Secretary Matt Hancock threatening to push many of them into Tier 3 restrictions.
In Nottingham, the rolling weekly case rate peaked at 1,001.2 per 100,000 people in the seven days to October 8 – the highest in England – but the number has been falling since then and is currently 787.6.
The current rate in Manchester is 432.5 after hitting a high of 583.5 in the seven days to October 3, while in Sheffield it was 396.7, after a high of 500.3 in the Week until October 7th. The rate in Newcastle is 371.5 compared to 553.8 in the same interval.
Although infections are occurring in some of the country's major cities, the cities and districts around them are gradually growing rapidly, which may explain the government's willingness to lock down more areas.
Manchester City is the only area in the Greater Manchester area where daily infections are falling, but the outbreaks in Trafford, Stockport and Oldham have also stabilized. And the rate at which cases are increasing in the other nine counties has started to slow.
For example, as of October 12, Bury reported an average of 108 cases per day, up from 97 daily cases the week before, an 11 percent increase. This is less of a risk than it was between September 28 and October 5, when the daily cases rose 33 percent from 73 to 97.
A similar trend has taken place in the other districts. In Wigan, the average number of daily cases over seven days is 205 – a nine percent increase from the previous seven days. For comparison: this number almost doubled from September 28 (99.3) to October 5 (188).
Rochdale & # 39; s currently has 149 cases a day, up 16 percent the week before it was 128. The increase from the week was then much less than the increase between September 28 and October 5, when the daily falls rose 59 percent from 86 to 128 cents.
Sheffield, Leeds and Nottingham are also closely monitored and could be subject to the higher restrictions.
In this case, another 13.1 million would be placed under the most restrictive coronavirus rules.
No10 has tried to get Andy Burnham to accept curbs that would bring the Manchester economy to a standstill by warning that the region's ICU beds could be overcrowded by mid-November.
So far, only Merseyside and Lancashire are in Tier 3, requiring closings of pubs and other venues that health officials claim are most contributing to the spread of Covid-19.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics, which has recorded the UK's Covid-19 number since the pandemic began, show that more than 1,000 deaths were recorded daily between April 2 and April 23.
They had previously risen dramatically and stood at 206 on the day of the lockdown.
Covid-19 was mentioned on the first death certificate on January 30th, but the UK failed to pass 10 deaths as of March 9th. Deaths then began to rotate in line with missile falls – from seven on March 11 to 73 the week later and 335 the week after that.
This time, however, the increase in deaths was far slower. Since their lowest point in the outbreak, when there were only three deaths on September 1, deaths have only increased by about 100 a day in seven weeks.
In the last week of reliable data, an average of 98 people died per day in the three days before and after October 14. This increased from an average of 87 the week before (up 13 percent) to 60 the week before.
The actual average number rose by just 20 per day in two weeks, compared to an increase of nearly 600 additional daily deaths in the first fortnight of April, when the average rose from 346 to 938 per day – nearly triple.
Coronavirus deaths in England and Wales jump 36% to 438 in early October for the fifth straight week, now accounting for 4.4% of all deaths
The number of people dying from Covid-19 in England and Wales rose to 438 for the fifth straight week between October 3rd and 9th.
The number of deaths from the disease has risen steadily since September 11, when the trend reversed after 19 consecutive weeks of decline after the March lockdown.
Data from the Bureau of National Statistics shows that the number of recent weeks represents a 36 percent increase from the 321 who died in the week ending October 2 and more than double the 215 the week before .
Coronavirus is now responsible for 4.4 percent of all deaths in both countries – one in 23.
While deaths for all reasons were above average in the north of England and the Midlands, they were below projections for London, the south-east, south-west and east of England.
While the number of deaths is an issue, the current numbers still don't compare to those at the height of the first wave, when more than 1,000 people died daily. In the worst week since April 11-17, the deaths of a staggering 8,758 coronavirus patients were recorded. Last week is only five percent of that number.
Today's report shows that people in the Northwest are dying in the greatest numbers, reflecting the Department of Health's daily statistics on infections, hospital admissions and deaths.
Much of the region is now locked under the strictest Tier 3 rules that prohibit socializing, travel, and social drinking. Liverpool and Merseyside are already sticking to the strictest rules and the government is only hours away from forcing Greater Manchester to follow suit.
CORONAVIRUS DEATH WEEK AFTER WEEK
Data from the Office of National Statistics for England and Wales, deaths where Covid-19 is shown on death certificate:
27th of March
In the northwest, 153 deaths from Covid-19 were recorded in the week ending October 9. That was the highest number in the region since the week ended June 12. For comparison: in the last seven days there were only 106.
In north-east England, where deaths have also been highest since June and where more stringent lockdown rules apply, 60 Covid-19 deaths were recorded in the week leading up to October 9, up from 40 the week before.
Registered Covid-19 deaths increased from week to week in all but two regions of England for the week ending October 9 – except the East and Southeast.
In Wales, the weekly total rose from 25 to 37.
Three people under the age of 40 died from Covid-19 in the past week as the elderly continued to make up the vast majority of victims. People over 70 made up 358 out of a total of 438 (82 percent).
In Yorkshire and the Humber, the largest increase in England, deaths for all reasons were more than 10 percent above average at this time of year. 1,067 were registered, compared to an expected value of 967.
In the northwest – which was badly hit by the virus – they were at 1,367, 2.9 percent above the average, compared to the expected 1,328. And in the northeast, at 544, they were 6.7 percent above average when numbers from the past five years said 510 were expected.
In London, the death toll from all reasons remained 1.3 percent below the average (902 when 912 were forecast).
In the southwest – which has so far avoided the second virus wave – they were at 1,010, 4.2 percent below the average, compared to an average of 1,054. And in the east of England they were 5.7 percent below average, the biggest drop in the UK at 1,019 versus 1,081.
With the resurgence of deaths from Covid-19, the number of people who die for any reason has again increased above average.
After rising to more than 11,000 than usual for the April season, the total number of people dying weekly fell below average in the summer.
Fewer than usual deaths from non-covidian diseases in hospitals and nursing homes, and this is the case even as coronavirus deaths rise.
Experts say this could be because hospitals weren't admitting as many people as they normally would because they saved space for Covid-19 patients in the spring.
As a result, more people than the average die in private homes. A separate report from the ONS yesterday found that there were more than 26,000 deaths at home this year that were above normal.
Between March 20, the start of the week, and September 11, a total of 85,400 people died in private homes rather than hospitals or nursing homes, the report showed yesterday. This equates to about 100 additional deaths per day.
The number, which is rising by an average of 43.8 percent for this time of year, includes deaths of all kinds, with Covid-19 only being mentioned on 2.9 percent of all death certificates. Six out of ten people who died at home were over 70 years old.
Home deaths were almost double the five-year average between April 3 and May 7, when the UK was overwhelmed by the virus and has remained "well above average" since March.
However, in hospitals and nursing homes, deaths fell below average in June after the first wave of Covid-19 passed. It has now risen slightly in nursing homes, but remains low in hospitals.
"Normally around 300 people die every day in their homes in England and Wales," said Cambridge University statistics professor Professor David Spiegelhalter.
& # 39; The latest ONS analysis confirms that even after the epidemic peaked, that number has stayed at around 400 per day and shows no signs of decline – that's a third more, very few of which are from Covid.
& # 39; Non-Covid hospital deaths have decreased accordingly, suggesting that most of these deaths would normally have occurred in the hospital and people either hesitated to leave, were prevented from attending, or services were interrupted.
“It is unclear how many of these lives could have been extended if they had been hospitalized, for example among the 450 additional deaths from arrhythmia (abnormal heartbeat).
"Crucially, the ONS data cannot provide any indication of the quality of these deaths, particularly in terms of end-of-life care and family support."
The numbers come as Andy Burnham admitted today that he will have to adjust if the Greater Manchester government imposes a third tier lock – as the protocols expire on a high noon deadline.
Area Mayor Andy Burnham railed this morning over the government's "provocative" ultimatum after a week of fierce arguments over a compensation package.
But he admitted that if Boris Johnson enforces the matter he will have to abide by the law, and said he would give one final number to the government that is offering the area up to £ 100 million.
In a grim warning, he said, "I would predict everyone will end up in Tier 3 at some point in the winter – what we need is a fair financial framework for Tier 3."
Mr Burnham also touched on "selective" numbers highlighted by Downing Street, which suggested that Greater Manchester hospitals could be overwhelmed in weeks if tougher measures were not taken.
He insisted that the occupancy of the intensive care beds at this time of year was approximately normal at 80 percent.
The high-stakes brinkmanship came when a portion of the country faces escalated to the highest lockdown class, which meant closing pubs and restaurants as well as a ban on mixing households indoors. Mr Johnson met his cabinet this morning to discuss the raging crisis.
However, new questions have been raised about the need for the drastic move, as official data shows that Nottingham, Newcastle, Sheffield and Manchester are among the cities where cases plateaued after spiking in late September when thousands of college students and college students , staff have started pouring back into universities.
Infection rates in all four cities have been falling for several days.
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