The UK today recorded the deaths of 241 people with Covid-19, the highest number since June 5, when it was confirmed an additional 21,331 people tested positive.
The deaths represent a 68.5 percent increase from the 143 confirmed last Tuesday, while the cases represent a 23.8 percent increase to 17,234. The number of people hospitalized rose to 1,019 on October 15, data released today showed. This was the first time since May that it was in four digits.
All the figures show that the second wave of coronavirus has continued to ravage the UK with cases, hospitalizations and deaths since schools, universities and offices returned in September.
They come tonight as the government forced Greater Manchester into a third tier lockdown after nearly a week of fighting with the area's mayor, Andy Burnham. This proved unsuccessful when the Labor politician refused to take Boris Johnson's advice because he was unhappy about the financial support offer for local businesses.
In a televised briefing that afternoon where Mr Johnson pulled England's assistant medical director, Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, to show surprising graphs showing rising infection rates across the country, the Prime Minister said the data " clearly show why we have to act ".
In addition to enforcing the rules on Manchester, ministers are considering stricter lockdown rules for Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire and the North East, Johnson said.
Professor Van-Tam said the outbreak "spread from coast to coast and is now spreading quite far across the country" but Mr Johnson admitted "the virus is not spreading as quickly as it did in February and March".
A closer look at official data suggests that while the number of people diagnosed is still increasing, it is increasing more slowly than in the spring – and hospitalizations and deaths are also increasing more slowly.
The number of new cases, counted by the day the tests were done, fell for the first time in a month last week, as it fell from an average of 16,550 on October 11 to 16,497 the next day. This was the first drop since September 11th, but rose again to 16,648 on October 13th the next day.
And the rate of resurgence has leveled off. In the week ending October 12, daily cases rose only 6 percent after rising 49 percent the week before. Separate data also shows that infection rates have fallen in some of the worst hit areas, including Newcastle, Nottingham and Manchester.
Hospital admissions are only increasing at a fifth the rate they had when the UK was hit by the first wave of Covid-19 when they tripled in a week, and deaths are also rising much more slowly, statistics also show.
In other coronavirus news:
- A member of SAGE has warned that the three-tier locking system is "the worst of all worlds" because it is confusing and does not serve the purpose of simplifying local rules.
- Chancellor Rishi Sunak is planning more business support for places that have tier 2 lockdown rules.
- A 47-year-old man in Blackpool has died of cardiac arrest two months after being released from hospital after a severe attack of Covid-19. His death is attributed to "Long Covid" and is considered one of the first of its kind;
- Coronavirus outbreaks are decreasing in roughly half of student areas, including Nottingham, Newcastle and Manchester, which are among the hardest-hit parts of England.
- A report from the Office of National Statistics today showed that in the seven days leading up to October 9, deaths from Covid-19 rose for the fifth straight time, when 438 deaths were recorded – 36 percent more than the week before.
The number of new cases counted daily decreased from an average of 16,398 on October 11 to 16,231 on October 12. This was the first time since September 11th after a month of continuous increase (Department of Health data counted by date of swab removal).
Speaking at the conference that afternoon, Mr Johnson said, "This presentation that you have just seen shows you clearly why we need to act.
"Now I don't want anyone to think their actions or efforts have been in vain. Our collective action across the country has brought the R-number well below its natural rate of about 3.
PM FORCES MANCHESTER IN TIER THREE LOCKDOWN
Boris Johnson threw Greater Manchester into stage three lockdown when he said Labor Mayor Andy Burnham had turned down his "generous and comprehensive offer" of additional business support.
The prime minister said he had no choice but to impose pubs, bars and restaurants closings and stricter household mixing rules after the government failed to reach an agreement with local leaders.
Mr Johnson said he appreciated the rules "are tough for both businesses and individuals" but that they are needed to combat a surge in coronavirus cases in the region.
Mr Johnson's comments come after Mr Burnham effectively declared class war on the Prime Minister for condemning Greater Manchester to preventing “poverty” by refusing to hand over a bailout of at least £ 65 million.
At a press conference this afternoon, the mayor launched an angry tirade with the government for imposing the toughest curbs without "adequate support" and said he had asked what the region "needed".
Andy Burnham (pictured at a press conference today) called for £ 65m in corporate aid and there was no breakthrough in the series
Mr Burnham painted himself as an advocate of the northern working class, saying, "It wasn't about what we wanted, it was about what we needed … What we saw today is a conscious act of flattening."
Despite serving as MP and cabinet minister for more than a decade before becoming mayor of Greater Manchester in 2017, the Labor politician said Westminster had neglected the north for "years".
But Mr Burnham was faced with questions about whether he was "showboating" and government sources hit back that his own "pride" upset the deal after rejecting a £ 60 million offer from the Prime Minister.
Mr Johnson and Mr Burnham made one final offer to beat up a rescue package in a noon phone call as the noon time limit had expired. The Prime Minister increased his business support offer from £ 55 million.
But Mr Burnham continued to call for £ 65 million, saying the region needed £ 15 million a month to top up vacation pay to 80 percent of normal wages, instead of the two-thirds Rishi Sunak provided. "It was his pride that stood in the way of a deal," said a government source.
The news immediately sparked a brutal guilt game, and Labor was desperate to stir up an uproar in the government and Tory MPs.
& # 39; As a result, the virus is not spreading as quickly as it was in February and March.
'Although the R is below its natural level, it stays above 1 which means the virus is continuing to spread.
"So we need to take action to reduce the R and control the virus, especially in the parts of the country, as you have just seen, where the virus is most prevalent."
"Tonight, based on the data we've just seen, I can announce that Greater Manchester is going to move to very high alert."
Although national statistics are still rising, the rate at which the outbreak is spinning appears to have slowed.
Official test data from the Department of Health shows that on October 12, the last day reliable sample test data is available, the average number of positive tests fell from 16,398 to 16,231.
That drop was only one percent, but the first time since September 11th. Between October 1 and 11, the daily average had risen from 7,097 to over 16,000.
Later preliminary data for October 13-14, which is not yet complete and therefore expected to rise significantly, suggest that the average is on the way to falling even further.
The number of positive tests announced daily continues to increase. The daily average for the past week was 17,649. However, this is affected by data lags, and these results are scraped together from several days of testing, with some stretching over a week or more.
The above data refer to the sample date, i.e. the day the person removed the swab and are therefore not affected by the daily fluctuations in reporting.
NHS data also shows that the number of Covid-19 patients being hospitalized is increasing significantly more slowly than in the first wave in March and April.
The number of newly infected patients in need of NHS care nearly tripled in just ten days between March 23 and April 1, rising from 1,271 to 3,564 on the worst day on record.
That was the first week after the UK's draconian lockdown was announced and came roughly two weeks before the peak of deaths, with 1,122 deaths announced on April 11th.
In the last 10 days – between October 6th and 15th – registrations increased by only 42 percent from 693 to 988.
The slower surge in hospital admissions is one of the most reliable ways to compare the speed of this outbreak to that of March and April. No public tests were conducted during the spring, so comparing positive cases is not useful.
The number of approvals will increase more slowly this time around as there are fewer cases overall – up to 28,000 people contract the virus every day in England alone, compared to 100,000 to 150,000 at the end of March – and possibly also because different groups of people are now being infected.
Much of the infections currently diagnosed in England occur in young people who are significantly less likely to develop symptoms or serious illness if they have coronavirus.
The latest data from Public Health England shows that in the week leading up to October 11th, around 250 positive Covid-19 tests were performed per 100,000 people in 10 to 30 year olds, while fewer than 55 people were in their 70s.
Older people are likely to take more precautionary measures to protect themselves from the virus because they know it poses a greater threat to them, while the young – back in schools, universities, and at work – are more carefree.
Sir Patrick Vallance said last week that social distancing is preventing the second wave from getting as bad as the first.
Commenting on the virus reproduction rate (R), which is between 1.3 and 1.5 in the UK, the senior scientific adviser said, “You can see the R has not returned to where it was and where it would be in an unrestrained epidemic of this disease that would be at about three.
“So it's gone up, the epidemic is growing, probably between four and seven percent a day, but the R hasn't gone up properly, and it's not because everyone has already taken action. & # 39;
A similar trend can be seen in coronavirus deaths, which quadrupled from 206 the day Boris Johnson imposed the lockdown on 913 in early April.
For comparison: The number of deaths rose from 73 to 119 between October 6 and 15 – a significantly smaller increase of 63 percent.
The death toll is usually the last measure to go up and occurs three to four weeks after the number of cases increases, as people need time to get severe after contracting the disease and the time they spend in the hospital to get sick.
The number of newly infected patients in need of NHS care nearly tripled in the ten days between March 23 and April 1, but has increased only 42 percent in the last ten days
Daily deaths from Covid-19 are slightly above 100 per day in the latest data, compared to peaks of more than 1,000 per day at the height of the crisis in March and April
Five weeks after the first wave of coronavirus started, intensive care admissions in hospitals were up to ten times higher than after the same period in the second wave. It is known that treatments have improved and significantly fewer patients are ventilated
The spring coronavirus deaths have pushed the number of people dying from all reasons well above the national average for the time of year. However, since then they have fallen back to normal levels and rose again slightly in the second wave
Large numbers of coronavirus outbreaks in care homes during the first wave of the virus, compounded by lack of protective equipment and inadequate testing, has fueled the accelerated death toll in the UK – more than 14,000 care home residents are known to have died from Covid- 19 in England
In line with the lower number of outbreaks in nursing homes, fewer coronavirus cases are now being detected in the elderly, who are at greatest risk of death if they contract the virus. Instead, the current outbreak is being driven by people in their twenties and late teens
The survival rates of Covid-19 patients in the intensive care unit have improved since the first wave of the coronavirus, partly due to the discovery that the steroid already in use, dexamethasone, can reduce the risk of death in critically ill patients by around a third
COVID-19 outbreaks are slowing in half of student areas
Half of England's major university cities are already on the other side of their coronavirus outbreak, analysis of official data suggests.
In major university cities with more than 20,000 students but excluding London, infections skyrocketed in late September as students and teachers returned to education in droves.
The arrival and intermingling of thousands of strangers from different parts of the country is believed to have exacerbated the spread of the virus in these areas and helped the disease to migrate to the wider community.
According to an analysis of numbers from Public Health England, the average number of daily registered cases is declining in nine of the 18 largest university cities.
The promising statistics show that the six areas where the virus rose the most at the start of the new term – Manchester, Newcastle, Liverpool, Nottingham, Leeds and Sheffield – report fewer infections than they did a week ago. And in the university towns, where cases are still on the rise, the rate at which they are increasing has gradually slowed down.
The rolling average of 7-day cases per day in Newcastle, where college students make up nearly a fifth of the city's 270,000 residents, is currently 150.7, according to the numbers as of October 12, the most recent snapshot. This was a third fewer than the 236 daily infections reported the week before.
NEWCASTLE ON TYNE
The seven-day moving average is believed to be the most accurate method of scoring outbreaks because it takes into account today's variability in infections. In Nottingham – the country's current Covid-19 hotspot – the average daily cases fell by almost 30 percent over the same period – from 476.1 to 338.3.
Manchester, due to enter a level three lockdown today, has seen its rolling average number of cases drop in the seven days since Sept. 28. At that point, the city was recording 419 cases a day, but that has since fallen to 335.4. The downtrend will cast doubt on whether the toughest lockdown bracket is really warranted.
In Sheffield and Leeds, two other hotspots where local leaders are talking to the government about tightening Covid-19 restrictions, cases have been falling steadily for a week, suggesting a downward trend rather than a slip . In Sheffield, the average daily cases fell from 414.4 on October 5 to 328.7 by October 12, while Leeds daily cases fell from 483.6 to 419 over the same period.
Exeter, which imposed stricter lockdown restrictions because officials ruled outbreaks there for college dormitories, saw one of the most dramatic drops in daily cases in the week ended October 12, with infections nearly halving from 77.9 to 41.9.
Although the death toll will continue to rise – UK Assistant Medical Director Professor Jonathan Van-Tam said more case deaths have been “branded” in recent weeks – there are signs that the number is rising start to slow down.
Official figures show that coronavirus infections are now falling in some of England's largest cities, including Manchester, despite threats from Health Secretary Matt Hancock to push many of them into Tier 3 restrictions.
In Nottingham, the rolling weekly case rate peaked at 1,001.2 per 100,000 people in the seven days ending October 8 – the highest in England – but the number has been falling since then and is currently 787.6.
The current rate in Manchester is 432.5 after hitting a high of 583.5 in the seven days to October 3rd, while in Sheffield it was 396.7, after a high of 500.3 in the Week until October 7th. The rate in Newcastle is 371.5 compared to 553.8 in the same interval.
Although infections are occurring in some of the country's major cities, the cities and districts around them are gradually growing rapidly, which may explain the government's willingness to lock down more areas.
Manchester City is the only area in the Greater Manchester area where daily infections are falling, but the outbreaks in Trafford, Stockport and Oldham have also stabilized. And the rate at which cases are increasing in the other nine counties has started to slow.
For example, through October 12, Bury was reporting an average of 108 cases per day, up from 97 daily cases the week before, an 11 percent increase. This is a lower risk than it was between September 28 and October 5, when the daily cases rose 33 percent from 73 to 97.
A similar trend has taken place in the other districts. In Wigan, the average number of daily cases over seven days is 205 – a nine percent increase from the previous seven days. For comparison: this number almost doubled from September 28 (99.3) to October 5 (188).
Rochdale & # 39; s currently has 149 cases a day, up 16 percent the week before it was 128. The increase from the week was then much less than the increase between September 28 and October 5, when the daily falls rose 59 percent from 86 to 128 cents.
Sheffield, Leeds and Nottingham are also closely monitored and could be subject to the higher restrictions.
If so, another 13.1 million would be placed under the most restrictive coronavirus rules.
No10 has tried to get Andy Burnham to accept curbs that would bring the Manchester economy to a standstill by warning that the region's ICU beds could be overcrowded by mid-November.
So far, only Merseyside and Lancashire are in Tier 3, requiring closings of pubs and other venues that health officials claim are most contributing to the spread of Covid-19.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics, which has recorded the UK's Covid-19 number since the pandemic began, show that more than 1,000 deaths were recorded daily between April 2 and April 23.
They had previously risen dramatically and stood at 206 on the day of the lockdown.
Covid-19 was mentioned on the first death certificate on January 30th, but the UK failed to pass 10 deaths as of March 9th. Deaths then began to rotate in line with missile falls – from seven on March 11 to 73 the week later and 335 the week after that.
This time, however, the increase in deaths was far slower. Since their lowest point in the outbreak, when there were only three deaths on September 1, deaths have only increased by about 100 a day in seven weeks.
In the last week of reliable data, an average of 98 people died per day in the three days before and after October 14. This increased from an average of 87 the week before (up 13 percent) to 60 the week before.
The actual average number rose by just 20 per day in two weeks, compared to an increase of nearly 600 additional daily deaths in the first fortnight of April, when the average rose from 346 to 938 per day – nearly triple.
Coronavirus deaths in England and Wales jump 36% to 438 in early October for the fifth straight week, now accounting for 4.4% of all deaths
The number of people dying from Covid-19 in England and Wales rose to 438 for the fifth straight week between October 3rd and 9th.
The number of deaths from the disease has risen steadily since September 11, when the trend reversed after 19 consecutive weeks of decline after the March lockdown.
Data from the Bureau of National Statistics shows that the number of recent weeks represents a 36 percent increase from the 321 who died in the week ending October 2, and more than double the 215 the week before .
Coronavirus is now responsible for 4.4 percent of all deaths in both countries – one in 23.
While deaths for all reasons were above average in the north of England and the Midlands, they were below projections for London, the south-east, south-west and east of England.
While the number of deaths is an issue, the current numbers still don't compare to those at the height of the first wave, when more than 1,000 people died daily. In the worst week since April 11th and 17th, the deaths of a staggering 8,758 coronavirus patients were recorded. Last week is only five percent of that number.
Today's report shows people in the Northwest are dying in the greatest numbers, reflecting the Department of Health's daily statistics on infections, hospital admissions and deaths.
Much of the region is now locked under the strictest Tier 3 rules that prohibit socializing, travel, and social drinking. Liverpool and Merseyside are already sticking to the strictest rules and the government is only hours away from forcing Greater Manchester to follow suit.
CORONAVIRUS DEATH WEEK AFTER WEEK
Data from the Office of National Statistics for England and Wales, deaths where Covid-19 is shown on death certificate:
27th of March
In the northwest, 153 deaths from Covid-19 were recorded in the week ending October 9. That was the highest number in the region since the week ending June 12. For comparison: in the last seven days there were only 106.
In the north-east of England, where deaths have also been highest since June and where stricter lockdown rules apply, 60 Covid-19 deaths were recorded in the week leading up to October 9, up from 40 the week before.
Registered Covid-19 deaths increased week-to-week for the week ending October 9 in all but two regions of England – with the exception of the East and the Southeast.
In Wales, the weekly total rose from 25 to 37.
Three people under the age of 40 died from Covid-19 in the past week as the elderly continued to make up the vast majority of victims. People over 70 made up 358 out of a total of 438 (82 percent).
In Yorkshire and the Humber, the largest spike in England, deaths for all reasons were more than 10 percent above average. 1,067 were registered, compared to an expected value of 967.
In the northwest – which was badly hit by the virus – they were at 1,367, 2.9 percent above the average, compared to the expected 1,328. And in the northeast, at 544, they were 6.7 percent above the average when numbers from the past five years said 510 were expected.
In London, the death toll from all reasons remained 1.3 percent below the 902 average when 912 was forecast.
In the southwest – which has avoided the second wave of the virus so far – they were at 1,010, 4.2 percent below the average, compared to an average of 1,054. And in the east of England they were 5.7 percent below average, the biggest drop in the UK at 1,019 compared to 1,081.
With the resurgence of deaths from Covid-19, the number of people who die for any reason has again increased above average.
After rising to more than 11,000 than usual for the April season, the total number of people dying each week fell below average in the summer.
Fewer than usual deaths from non-covidian diseases in hospitals and nursing homes, and this is the case even as coronavirus deaths rise.
Experten sagen, dies könnte daran liegen, dass Krankenhäuser nicht so viele Menschen aufgenommen haben wie normalerweise, weil sie im Frühjahr Platz für Covid-19-Patienten gespart haben.
Infolgedessen sterben mehr Menschen als der Durchschnitt in Privathäusern. Ein separater Bericht des ONS von gestern ergab, dass es in diesem Jahr mehr als 26.000 Todesfälle zu Hause gab, die über dem normalen Niveau lagen.
Zwischen dem 20. März, dem Beginn der Woche, und dem 11. September starben insgesamt 85.400 Menschen in Privathäusern und nicht in Krankenhäusern oder Pflegeheimen, wie der Bericht gestern zeigte. Dies entspricht etwa 100 zusätzlichen Todesfällen pro Tag.
Die Zahl, die für diese Jahreszeit im Durchschnitt um 43,8 Prozent steigt, umfasst Todesfälle jeglicher Ursache, wobei Covid-19 nur auf 2,9 Prozent aller Sterbeurkunden erwähnt wird. Sechs von zehn zu Hause Verstorbenen waren über 70 Jahre alt.
Die Todesfälle in Privathäusern waren zwischen dem 3. April und dem 7. Mai fast doppelt so hoch wie im Fünfjahresdurchschnitt, als Großbritannien vom Virus überwältigt wurde und seit März „weit über dem Durchschnitt“ geblieben ist.
In Krankenhäusern und Pflegeheimen ging die Zahl der Todesfälle im Juni jedoch unter den Durchschnitt, nachdem die erste Welle von Covid-19 vorbei war. In Pflegeheimen ist sie inzwischen leicht gestiegen, in Krankenhäusern bleibt sie jedoch niedrig.
"Normalerweise sterben täglich etwa 300 Menschen in ihren Häusern in England und Wales", sagte der Statistikprofessor der Universität Cambridge, Professor David Spiegelhalter.
'Die jüngste ONS-Analyse bestätigt, dass diese Zahl auch nach dem Höhepunkt der Epidemie bei rund 400 pro Tag geblieben ist und keine Anzeichen eines Rückgangs zeigt – das ist ein Drittel mehr, von denen nur sehr wenige von Covid stammen.
'Nicht-Covid-Todesfälle im Krankenhaus sind entsprechend zurückgegangen, was darauf hindeutet, dass die meisten dieser Todesfälle normalerweise im Krankenhaus aufgetreten wären, und die Menschen zögerten entweder zu gehen, wurden von der Teilnahme abgehalten oder die Dienste wurden unterbrochen.
„Es ist unklar, wie viele dieser Leben hätten verlängert werden können, wenn sie ins Krankenhaus gegangen wären, zum Beispiel unter den 450 zusätzlichen Todesfällen aufgrund von Herzrhythmusstörungen (abnormaler Herzschlag).
"Entscheidend ist, dass die ONS-Daten keinen Aufschluss über die Qualität dieser Todesfälle geben können, insbesondere im Hinblick auf die Versorgung der Patienten am Lebensende und die Unterstützung ihrer Familien."
Die Zahlen kommen, als Andy Burnham heute einräumte, dass er sich anpassen muss, wenn die Regierung Greater Manchester eine Sperrung der dritten Stufe auferlegt – da die Protokolle auf eine Frist von „High Noon“ ablaufen.
Der Bürgermeister der Region, Andy Burnham, schimpfte heute Morgen über das "provokative" Ultimatum der Regierung, nachdem er eine Woche lang heftig über ein Entschädigungspaket gestritten hatte.
But he did admit that if Boris Johnson is forcing the matter he will have to abide by the law, he said he would give one final number to the government that is offering the area up to £ 100 million.
In a grim warning, he said, "I would predict everyone will end up in Tier 3 at some point during the winter – what we need is a fair financial framework for Tier 3."
Mr Burnham also touched on "selective" figures highlighted by Downing Street, which suggested that Greater Manchester hospitals could be overwhelmed in a matter of weeks if tougher measures were not taken.
He insisted that the occupancy of the intensive care beds at this time of year was approximately normal at 80 percent.
The high-stakes brinkmanship came when a portion of the country faces escalated to the highest lockdown class, which meant closing pubs and restaurants as well as a ban on mixing households indoors. Herr Johnson hat heute Morgen sein Kabinett zu Gesprächen über die tobende Krise versammelt.
Es wurden jedoch neue Fragen über die Notwendigkeit des drastischen Schritts aufgeworfen, wie offizielle Daten zeigen, dass Nottingham, Newcastle, Sheffield und Manchester zu den Städten gehören, in denen die Fälle nach einem Anstieg Ende September, als Tausende von Studenten und Studenten ein Plateau erreichten Mitarbeiter strömten zurück in die Universitäten.
Infection rates in all four cities have been falling for several days.
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