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UK Coronavirus Lockdown: Boris Johnson faces a Tory MP revolt


Boris Johnson will brave Tory and the fury of business by revealing a dramatic new national month-long ban tonight after his coronavirus strategy was thrown into chaos by growing cases.

The prime minister was forced to make a humiliating U-turn on the need for blanket restrictions at a press conference tonight at 5 p.m. instead of waiting until Monday.

The changes – dubbed "Tier Four" – are expected to go into effect Thursday morning at midnight after gritty Sage modeling predicted the virus will kill 85,000 people and hit 4,000 deaths per day this winter.

Due to the “absolutely devastating” influence on the already crippled hospitality sector, bars and restaurants in England that were not absolutely essential could be closed by December 2nd. It is expected that households will be prohibited from mixing indoors during the period and travel within the UK will be severely discouraged.

Unlike the March lockdown, schools and universities are expected to remain open – despite warnings from unions that they are key to spreading.

The overnight leaks caused a storm as Downing Street launched a hunt for the mole amid new evidence of cabinet divisions and disrupted the meticulous choreography that was supposed to contain the damage.

Mr Johnson held a conference call with the broader cabinet this afternoon before addressing the nation along with senior medical and science officers Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance.

It comes after weeks when Mr Johnson has put down calls for a 'breaker' – a form already implemented in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland – and instead relies on a 'tiered' system of local action.

But French President Emmanuel Macron took dramatic action earlier this week, and pressure on the Prime Minister to change direction has increased.

Hawkish Conservative Backbenchers threatening revolt voted in parliament with "at least 30" willing to revolt. It was warned that if the government showed any voluntary face on this matter, it would be "b ** ned".

Mr Johnson could put up with relying on Labor MPs to get the action through the Commons and give Sir Keir Starmer a major political victory after spending the last few nights calling for a "breaker" . In a token of Downing Street's desperation to avoid a mutiny, rebel ringleader Steve Baker was called to 10th place for talks this afternoon.

There is also a debate raging in the scientific community about the effectiveness of another lockdown. Former WHO director Prof. Karol Sikora told MailOnline: "It doesn't make sense."

As the nation prepared to be thrown into a second national lockdown:

  • The National Education Union has called for schools and colleges to be closed as part of the lockdown as they play a key role in spreading the virus.
  • Health Minister Nadine Dorries claimed the government could only have predicted the need for a second national lockdown with a "crystal ball";
  • A SAGE scientist warned Covid that there is unrest across all age groups and that hospitals are treating four times as many women between the ages of 20 and 40.
  • The number of virus patients in the hospital has doubled in the past 14 days, with 10,708 patients treated by the NHS.
  • According to the ONS, 50,000 people were infected with coronavirus every day. Another 274 deaths were reported yesterday.
  • A survey by the anti-lockdown group Recovery found that more than 70 percent of people were more concerned about the effects of the lockdown than they were about catching Covid.

The prime minister has repeatedly rejected calls from Labor to impose an English-wide "breaker" and has promoted a tiered strategy of local action. He is now expected to turn back and has called his cabinet for a rare Saturday meeting at 1:30 p.m. ahead of a press conference number 10 at 4 p.m.

Data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) estimated that nearly 52,000 people contracted the virus every day, and one in 100 people in the country was infected with Covid-19 a week ago

Data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) estimated that nearly 52,000 people contracted the virus every day, and one in 100 people in the country was infected with Covid-19 a week ago

Separate data from King & # 39; s College London predicted that around 32,000 cases occur daily in England and that infections are "steadily" increasing and "not getting out of hand".

Separate data from King & # 39; s College London predicted that around 32,000 cases occur daily in England and that infections are "steadily" increasing and "not getting out of hand".

Lockdown 2.0: What the new round of restrictions could look like

Boris Johnson is set to announce a second national lockdown to help tackle the resurgent virus. Nothing has been confirmed, but some specific action is likely.

Schools and universities

The schools are expected to remain open. The Prime Minister has said children's education is a "national priority" and has signaled that closing again would be a last resort. The government has also sidestepped the summer exams fiasco, so it is unlikely that there will be another educational battle.

Universities are also likely to remain open, although this is less certain as there have been spikes in infection on campus.

Pubs and restaurants

Government sources suggested that pubs and restaurants are likely to close. Tier 3 pubs have already closed unless they serve food and this is expected to be tightened across the country. Prof. Chris Whitty previously suggested that keeping schools open was a compromise.

Non-essential business

A source told the Times that non-essential stores should be closed. However, following the riot in Wales, the government is unlikely to encourage critical businesses such as supermarkets to sell non-essential items.

travel

People are likely to be told not to travel unless it is essential. Tier 3 guidelines already advise against traveling outside of your region.

Mix

In tier 3, two households are not allowed to socially mix indoors or in private outdoor areas, including a private garden. When the rest of the country is brought to this level, indoor mixing is prohibited unless you have a support bubble formed.

Mr Johnson worked out the change in the meetings with his core ministers who led the Covid response, Chancellor Rishi Sunak, Cabinet Minister Michael Gove, and Health Secretary Matt Hancock.

But the carefully crafted plans fell to pieces after the proposals leaked.

A senior government source told The Times that no final decision had been taken on the new lockdown measures.

They added: 'The data is really bad. We are seeing the coronavirus increase across the country and hospitals are struggling to deal with it. Our position has changed. & # 39;

Just yesterday, Foreign Minister Dominic Raab insisted that the government's battle plan for localized lockdowns was the right approach.

However, it is believed that Mr Johnson was startled by terrible projections of up to 4,000 daily deaths by the end of December.

One of the models seen by the BBC said deaths would peak in late December before falling in January.

Sages Professor John Edmunds also confirmed that the situation in the country is worse than the reasonable worst-case scenario.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today, "We have actually been well above this reasonable worst-case scenario for some time."

Prof. Edmunds said it was "possible" that there would be 85,000 coronavirus deaths this winter – more than the first wave.

"Unfortunately, it is now really unthinkable that we do not count our deaths among tens of thousands of this wave."

A heated debate raged this morning over whether the government should push plans for a national lockdown.

Calum Semple, colleague from Sage, said: “For those naysayers who don't believe in a second wave, there is a second wave.

"And unlike in the first wave where we had a national lockdown that protected huge sections of society, there is now turmoil in all age groups."

He also said there were "many more cases, especially among younger women between the ages of 20 and 40".

However, other top scientists have expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of tougher measures.

Oxford University professor Sunetra Gupta said lockdowns don't build the immunity needed to fight the disease back.

She said, “I don't think death rates have increased. There has been an increase in infections which is very much in line with what you would expect if blocking didn't build immunity.

She added that the vulnerable should protect while everyone else mingles to build a level of immunity: "Infections are building up now because some areas don't have the immunity we would have expected if we hadn't been completely locked down . "

Unions are calling for schools to be closed in a new lockdown

Schools and colleges will have to close if the government imposes another national lockdown, according to the National Education Union.

NEW Joint Secretary General Kevin Courtney also urged ministers to prepare for the introduction of school rotas to end new restrictions.

He said it was "self-destructive" for the government to impose such measures and "ignore the role of schools as the main culprit in the spread of the virus".

Mr Courtney said that failing to involve schools and colleges would likely result in even longer lockdowns going forward.

"The latest numbers from the ONS assume 1 percent of elementary school students and 2 percent of secondary school students have the virus, and those numbers have risen dramatically since it opened in September," he said.

Professor Sikora, a former director of the WHO cancer program, told MailOnline this morning, "It doesn't make sense, the other problem is that even if you lower the R-number when you come out, it just pops up again."

He added: “It makes a lot more sense to take a regional approach, just keep doing what we are doing. There's no point doing anything down in Cornwall. «

When asked who is driving the lockdown in the government, Prof. Sikora said, “It's legend, they are all a group of epidemiologists, they are not treatment doctors and they forget that the mathematical model only applies to people with other diseases like cancer or Heart excludes disease, stroke and obstruction lead to more problems in accessing care. People are less willing to go to the hospital. & # 39;

Hawkish Tory MPs are signaling they will oppose the move in parliament.

Tory MP Sir Desmond Swayne told MailOnline that the Commons would have to unsubscribe each time it was blocked. & # 39; There should definitely be a vote. I don't doubt the government will win, ”said the former minister.

“But those of us who, as elected representatives, want to express our opposition have every right to do so. We are a democracy after all.

“I don't doubt it's a tough decision, but that doesn't change the fact that it's the wrong decision. The things it does to our economy, our health, and everything else are worse than the disease they fight. & # 39;

Sir Desmond added, "The long-term average for excessive deaths is roughly normal for the time of year, yet we are told we must take all possible catastrophic measures to prevent the virus from spreading."

Former Minister Bob Syms tweeted: "The government would be unwise to bypass parliament and most Tory MPs are very uncomfortable with this change in policy. I hope the chief whip will explain the numbers to the prime minister."

Former Cabinet Secretary Sir John Redwood said today: “I am full of premonition and before we endorse such a move there must be a compelling case of how well the proposed measures will do in saving lives.

The Minister of Health claims that predicting the lockdown requires a "crystal ball".

A health minister has claimed the government needed a "crystal ball" to predict the need for a second national lockdown.

Nadine Dorries – the first MP to test positive for Covid-19 in March – dismissed criticism that the government was acting too late and said cases among those over 60 had increased faster than expected.

Ms. Dorries wrote on Twitter: “If we had just one crystal ball and we could actually see how many people over 60 were infected, the positivity rate, infection rate, and subsequent delay would allow us to meet the expected demand for hospital beds for 14 days on a given one Day, three weeks in advance. «

Wes Streeting, Labor Frontbencher, said: “Amazing to see a health minister – yes, a health minister – pointing out that only a crystal ball could have identified the need for a second lockdown. It was in the SAGE MINUTES. & # 39;

“And on the other hand, we need an honest explanation of how much more damage it will do to jobs, livelihoods, and the economy by affecting people's ability to go to work and make a living. We are destroying good businesses that we are closing down in large numbers from cafes, restaurants and hospitality establishments, and there has to be a balance. & # 39;

Andrew Bridgen MP told MailOnline, "These are big decisions that the government must make with enormous economic and political consequences."

& # 39; Sage's so-called experts will not be held accountable for the correctness of their decisions in the next parliamentary elections. We will. & # 39;

Meanwhile, Health Minister Nadine Dorries – the first MP to test positive for Covid-19 in March – dismissed criticism that the government was acting too late and said cases among those over 60 had risen faster than expected.

Ms. Dorries wrote on Twitter: “If we had just one crystal ball and we could actually see how many people over 60 were infected, the positivity rate, infection rate, and subsequent delay would allow us to meet the expected demand for hospital beds for 14 days on a given one Day, three weeks in advance. «

Nottingham South Labor MP Lilian Greenwood was among those who criticized Mrs Dorries' comments.

She tweeted: “Two weeks ago, Nadine Dorries said that Notts didn't have to get into Tier 3. Given the numbers we'd just come up with from Public Health England, it was clear that this would be the case.

"I didn't need a crystal ball, just the ability and willingness to look and listen."

Frontbencher Wes Streeting added, “Amazing to see a Minister of Health – yes, a Minister of Health – pointing out that only a crystal ball could have identified the need for a second lockdown. It was in the SAGE MINUTES. & # 39;

Schools are expected to remain open, but a source told The Times that non-essential stores would close and people were seen stocking up on toilet paper today in scenes similar to the first wave in March (Costco, Manchester , Image).

Schools are expected to remain open, but a source told The Times that non-essential stores would close and people were seen stocking up on toilet paper today in scenes similar to the first wave in March (Costco, Manchester , Image).

Percentage change in coronavirus cases across England for the week ended October 25: The five local authorities that have seen the highest increase in infection rates are: Kingston upon Hull City, 92.81 percent; Derby, 91.84 percent; North Somerset, 82.99 percent; Medway, 77.17 percent; and Bath and North East Somerset 69.72 percent

Percentage change in coronavirus cases across England for the week ended October 25: The five local authorities that have seen the highest increase in infection rates are: Kingston upon Hull City, 92.81 percent; Derby, 91.84 percent; North Somerset, 82.99 percent; Medway, 77.17 percent; and Bath and North East Somerset 69.72 percent

Reports of an impending national lockdown came over the weekend when the government's vacation program was suspended.

Hospitality bosses, who were particularly hard hit by the crisis, urgently asked for financial support today.

Kate Nicholls, General Manager of Hospitality UK, told BBC Breakfast: “People have borrowed and spent money trying to get Covid safe.

"There is no free capacity in the tank to finance a lockdown, even for three to four weeks."

She pointed out that a quarter of companies have not yet reopened and 80% are trading at a significant loss.

Noting that “resilience is down to earth”, she added: “It is a very fearful time for all of our companies doing their best to provide job security for people, to look to the future and to plan.

"We just need some certainty about what is going to happen and some funding to handle this and restart the economy when we get out on the other side."

She added: “Companies just need to have the certainty and security that it is a brief suspension, that a route map will be created from it and that they will receive the support to get through this suspension period – otherwise I fear the loss of jobs and Business failure. & # 39;

Details of the lockdown series came after the mail announced how the Prime Minister was warned by scientists – led by Professor Chris Whitty and scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance – that all hospitals in England would be full by December 17th, provided that he is not taking any more action.

Andy Street, the mayor of the West Midlands Conservative, said it was clear that further action was needed. He added: "I don't know if this is a national four-week lockdown, but I know the message is very clear: we need to take further action to turn this tide."

Professor Dominic Harrison, Blackburn director of public health at Darwen Council, called for a breaker because tier three households "did not fully comply" with guidelines.

But Recovery's Jon Dobinson said, “The concept of a four-week lockdown to save Christmas is even more cruel and inhumane, which will fuel the growing mental health crisis – all justified by false hopes.

"People are dying by the thousands from lockdowns and restrictions. It's time to focus."

A scientific source working for the government also told the Times that it was now "too late" for the circuit breaker to trip.

They said, “It is definitely too late to believe that a two week breaker alone would fix us. . . It would almost certainly have to take longer. & # 39;

Commenting on the prospect of a new lockdown, Professor Jeremy Farrar, member of the Sage Scientific Advisory Group, said, “To get Covid-19 under control, we must act now. The virus won't wait for us. & # 39;

THREE IN FOUR FEAR CURBS MORE THAN VIRUS

Nearly three in four Britons are more concerned about the effects of lockdown restrictions than they are about catching the virus, a poll said.

Young people are most concerned about the mental health effects, while a third of retirees are concerned about the suspension of cancer screening.

The results come from a survey by the Restoration Group, which campaigns against excessive Covid restrictions.

Its co-founder Jon Dobinson said, "This poll shows that more and more people share our concerns about the terrible harm locks, fears and limitations."

Respondents asked 2,000 adults to rate their top concerns during the pandemic. Catching Covid was the top concern for 29 percent, followed by 23 percent mental health and 21 percent exposure to cancer screening. Eleven percent were most concerned about the employment outlook and ten percent about the impact on children.

Mental health was the number one concern for 18-34 year olds and Londoners were most concerned about losing their jobs.

The infectious disease expert wrote on Twitter: "Nobody wants" a lockdown, myself included. Full and generous support to people and businesses is a key factor in making it work.

"But we quickly broke through the reasonable worst-case scenario. In this phase of the epidemic we are further ahead than many assumed."

“The best time to act was a month ago, but these are very difficult decisions that we would all like to avoid. The second best time is now. & # 39;

Professor Gabriel Scally, a wise member and president of the Epidemiology and Public Health Division of the Royal Society of Medicine, said on Twitter: “It is possible to be very concerned about the mental health effects of the pandemic and the treatment of non-pandemic too its Covid conditions and still believe that stricter measures are the best and most necessary course of action. The more the virus spreads, the less capacity the NHS has.

UCL's wise member Professor Christina Pagel added that another national lockdown was "inevitable". The director of clinical operations research told Sky News: “By and large, Covid is spreading particularly in England and Wales.

"I suspect Wales" cases will fall next week when their outbreak takes place. "But basically it is spreading everywhere and at the moment mainly in tier 1 areas."

When asked if a second national lockdown is worth damaging the economy and people's mental health, she said, "I think this is inevitable, and since it is inevitable, the sooner you do it, I think the faster it's over and the more lives you save. "

There have also been reports of further Tory infighting, with allegations by senior MPs that the lockdown revolt by Conservative MPs in the northern Red Wall seats was led by “selfish young MPs who are old enough to have nothing to fear” from Covid has been.

A conservative elderly statesman said: “Many of our MPs who won seats on the Red Wall last year and are the most fuss about bans are young and not at risk personally.

"You should think about your constituents in their sixties and who are at much greater risk."

The Senior Tory, who is over 60, has selected four MPs to be the most pronounced – William Wragg, who represents Hazel Grove, Manchester, aged 32; Jake Berry, Rossendale and Darwen, 41; Chris Green, Bolton West, 47; and Dehenna Davison, Bishop Auckland, Jan.

The move comes after Boris Johnson and his fiancée Carrie Symonds praised NHS medics for saving the prime minister's life and giving birth to their son in the fight against coronavirus

The move comes after Boris Johnson and his fiancée Carrie Symonds praised NHS medics for saving the prime minister's life and giving birth to their son in the fight against coronavirus

Above are the Covid-19 infection rates in the London boroughs for the week ending October 24, according to official figures

Above are the Covid-19 infection rates in the London boroughs for the week ending October 24, according to official figures

Almost 20 NHS trusts in England are already treating more coronavirus patients than at the height of the first wave. This comes from official statistics, which suggest that hospitals across the country may run out of beds before Christmas

Almost 20 NHS trusts in England are already treating more coronavirus patients than at the height of the first wave. This comes from official statistics, which suggest that hospitals across the country may run out of beds before Christmas

Act now to save Christmas and call on government scientists to warn Britain of the worst-case scenario unless the country goes into lockdown

By Eleanor Hayward, Xantha Leatham, and Victoria Allen for the Daily Mail

The announcement of the national lockdown is awaited after government scientists said it was necessary to save Christmas.

The experts estimate that there are 1,000 deaths a day in the UK within a month. An additional 274 deaths were reported yesterday, compared with 136 two weeks ago.

There is a delay of about three weeks between infections and deaths. The scientists told ministers that without further restrictions, the death toll will continue to rise exponentially and hospitals will be overwhelmed.

The number of virus patients in the hospital has doubled in the past 14 days. Currently 10,708 are being treated by the NHS.

If this path of doubling every two weeks continues, there will be more than 20,000 hospitalized patients by mid-November, more than at the height of the first wave.

The number of coronavirus infections is currently four times higher than expected in the government's plan for the "worst-case scenario", according to which the daily infections in October are estimated at around 12,000.

With this, the country is on the right track to surpass the previous worst-case scenario of 85,000 Covid-19 deaths this winter.

The new national lockdown comes after the government's Emergency Scientific Advisory Group (Sage) called for urgent national action, including the closure of all bars and restaurants, as well as other places where households mix indoors.

Scientists have warned that the second wave of coronavirus could result in 85,000 deaths, almost twice as many as victims of the first epidemic

Rishi Sunak's Eat Out to Help Out program resulted in a surge in coronavirus cases

According to a study, Rishi Sunak's Eat Out to Help Out program caused a significant increase in coronavirus cases.

Up to 17 percent of the summer cases were linked to the deal, as diners rushed to restaurants in August to get 50 percent off their bill.

A study by Warwick University looked at the number of visitors to the restaurants participating in the program in more than 6,000 areas in England. Then the number of clusters in which three or more were infected was analyzed.

More people tested positive in areas where large numbers of meals were claimed by the deal.

The study, which suggests the program caused crowds to be too close together, concluded that it accounted for an additional 8 to 17 percent of infections in August and early September.

Cases apparently rose within a week of starting Eat Out to Help Out and began to decrease a fortnight after it ended.

Dr. Thiemo Fetzer, who contributed to the study that has not yet been published in a journal, blamed the deal for accelerating the second wave. The Finance Ministry said: "Many European colleagues have seen increases in certain cases – regardless of whether similar measures have been put in place."

They believe ministers left it "too late" for a two-week "breaker" lockout – which they called for in September – to work.

Instead, they called for a longer national lockdown, similar to the month-long lockdown imposed yesterday in France.

They argued that this was the best option to bring the R-rate below 1 and prevent the hospital capacity from becoming overwhelmed.

If new measures were put in place quickly, the restrictions could potentially be lifted in time for Christmas so that people can reunite with loved ones during the Christmas season.

A senior official said: "Time marches on, we are two months before Christmas. The more the numbers go up, the harder it is to turn them around."

On Tuesday, it emerged that ministers had been asked to prepare for 85,000 deaths this winter, with 500 deaths a day and more than 300,000 hospitalized for at least three months.

But government scientists said yesterday that this "reasonable worst-case scenario" has already been violated.

The planning document had estimated there would be 100 deaths a day by the end of October, but the UK has already seen triple that amount on a few days this week.

In a newly released document from a Sage meeting on October 7th, scientists said, “In England we are violating the number of infections and hospital admissions in the reasonable worst-case scenario

& # 39; It is also very likely that the death rate will exceed the worst-case scenario within the next two weeks.

"If the number of infections declined in the near future, this excess of the reasonable worst-case scenario could be modest and short-lived. However, if R stays above 1, the epidemic will continue to deviate from the planning scenario."

Another recent statement by Sage, dated Oct. 14, said: "The number of daily deaths is now in line with the most reasonable worst-case scenario and will almost certainly exceed it within the next two weeks."

The documents also show that scientists have been calling for bars and restaurants to be closed for "anything but take-away" for weeks. An Oct. 7 document produced by SPI-M-O, a subgroup reporting to Sage, said there was "strong evidence" that they were closed to slow the growth of the epidemic.

The data "force Boris to lock up": SAGE publication papers show they sounded the alarm two weeks ago. Britain faces a "worse than worst" scenario with 85,000 deaths – and 52,000 infected with viruses every day

The government's SAGE advisers released papers last night showing how they warned ministers two weeks ago that Britain could be in a more serious situation than its "worst case scenario".

The government's SAGE advisers released papers last night showing how they warned ministers two weeks ago that Britain could be in a more serious situation than its "worst case scenario".

The revelation that Boris Johnson is ready to plunge the UK into a new national lockdown followed days of briefings and leaks from government advisers – who say coronavirus cases are happening faster in the UK than their worst and the nation within 1,000 deaths could die a month a day.

It culminated in the publication of papers from a meeting of the government's SAGE committee last night showing how they had warned ministers two weeks ago that the UK could be in a more serious situation than its "worst case scenario".

The October 14 document posted online states: "We are violating the number of infections and hospital admissions in the" Reasonable Worst Case "planning scenario, before adding that the prospects for the future spread of Covid-19 are" worrying "if no action was taken.

According to consultants' briefings yesterday, they believe there is still time to save Christmas with a lockout period of at least a month that closes restaurants, pubs and all but essential stores.

The experts estimate that in the UK there will be 1,000 deaths per day and more than 85,000 deaths from coronavirus within a month. An additional 274 deaths were reported yesterday, compared with 136 two weeks ago.

The SAGE papers from two weeks ago warned that the modeling suggests that up to 74,000 people per day could be infected in England alone, well beyond the worst-case scenario.

There is a delay of about three weeks between infections and deaths. The scientists told ministers that without further restrictions, the death toll will continue to rise exponentially and hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Figures released yesterday by the Separate Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that daily coronavirus infections in England rose by 50 percent last week. It is estimated that nearly 52,000 people contracted the virus every day, and one in 100 people in the country was infected with Covid-19 a week ago.

The weekly update is far lower than another government-funded study called REACT-1, which this week claimed there were 96,000 new cases per day through October 25, bringing the current outbreak to first wave levels brings.

However, yesterday, other researchers at King's College London predicted around 32,000 new symptomatic cases a day in England, claiming that infections are "steadily increasing" and "not getting out of hand".

The competing predictions have created confusion about how bad the current rate of coronavirus infection is. Professor Tim Spector, the epidemiologist behind the king's study, said the spread of Covid-19 is currently "steady" and may even slow down in Scotland. The team estimated that cases in the UK would double once a month.

SAGE released a document on October 14th, stating that the group warned two weeks ago that the virus was spreading faster than the "worst-case scenario" and that up to 75,000 new infections occur every day

SAGE released a document on October 14th, stating that the group warned two weeks ago that the virus was spreading faster than the "worst-case scenario" and that up to 75,000 new infections occur every day

SAGE's worrying numbers lay behind Prime Minister Boris Johnson's anticipated decision to announce a new national lockdown next week after his scientific advisors told him it was the only way to save Christmas.

SAGE – the Emergency Scientific Advisory Group, made up of senior scientists and disease experts, presented its analysis to the government on October 14th.

They warned: “In England, we are violating the number of infections and hospital admissions in the“ Reasonable Worst Case ”planning scenario, which is based on the COVID-S winter planning strategy.

"The daily death toll is now in line with the worst-case scenario, and it will almost certainly exceed that number within the next two weeks."

They added, "SPI-M-O fully agrees that the current outlook for the course of the epidemic matters, unless there are widespread critical interventions or behavioral changes in the short term."

SAGE's UK mean R-rate plot with bars representing different independent estimates

SAGE's UK mean R-rate plot with bars representing different independent estimates

SAGE's illustration of the growth rate of Covid-19 in the regions of the NHS England. The bars represent various independent estimates, the areas shaded in gray represent the combined numerical range, and the black bars are the combined range rounded to one decimal place

SAGE's illustration of the growth rate of Covid-19 in the regions of the NHS England. The bars represent various independent estimates, the areas shaded in gray represent the combined numerical range, and the black bars are the combined range rounded to one decimal place

SAGE's plot of the mean R-rate in different NHS regions of England. The bars represent various independent estimates, the areas shaded in gray represent the combined numerical range, and the black bars are the combined range rounded to one decimal place

SAGE's plot of the mean R-rate in different NHS regions of England. The bars represent various independent estimates, the areas shaded in gray represent the combined numerical range, and the black bars are the combined range rounded to one decimal place

SAGE presents estimates of the mean R-rate for the four countries in the United Kingdom. The bars represent various independent estimates, the areas shaded in gray represent the combined numerical range, and the black bars are the combined range rounded to one decimal place

SAGE presents estimates of the mean R-rate for the four countries in the United Kingdom. The bars represent various independent estimates, the areas shaded in gray represent the combined numerical range, and the black bars are the combined range rounded to one decimal place

The SAGE scientists said that if the number of new infections declined in the “very near future”, the reasonable worst-case scenario “could only last three to four weeks”.

However, they warned that if the "R" rate stays above 1, the epidemic "will continue to deviate from the planning scenario."

The government-funded REACT study at Imperial College London earlier this week predicted the R-rate had risen to 1.6 across England – the highest since the initial lockdown. It added that it could be as high as 2.8 in London.

When the R-Rate is above 1, a breakout can grow exponentially. An R of 1.8 would mean that, on average, every 10 people infected would infect 28 other people.

SAGE's latest official R-rate estimates claimed the number had declined, ranging from 1.1 to 1.3 both nationally and in London.

In both cases, there seems to be a consensus that the infection rate should stay above 1.

SAGE had asked the government to follow in Germany's and France's footsteps by retreating into a full national shutdown "for at least a month" because they said the three-tier system had failed.

Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds reunite for their first TV appearance together, praising the "absolutely brilliant" NHS staff for saving his life and the maternity team that gave birth to son Wilfred

Boris Johnson and his fiancée Carrie Symonds will commend NHS medics for giving birth to their son Wilfred and for saving the prime minister's life as he battled coronavirus.

On their first TV appearance together, a recording for the Pride of Britain Awards, they will thank the frontline staff on a Sunday program for their “courage and commitment” during the pandemic.

The couple nominated nurses Jenny McGee and Luis Pitarma, two nurses who cared for Mr. Johnson at St. Thomas' Hospital in April, and the maternity team that Wilfred gave birth to later that month.

Ms. Symonds' £ 30,000 emerald engagement ring matches her green dress on the show filmed on Checkers earlier this week.

Ms. Symonds says in the video: “You continue to take care of us all even in the most difficult times, and thanks to you Boris is not only still here, but we are the proud parents of our cute boy.

"As a family, we must be so grateful to the NHS and we will never stop being thankful."

The Prime Minister then adds: “Exactly right. Therefore, I would like to thank the extremely brilliant team at St. Thomas & # 39; Hospital that saved my life.

"There were a lot of them, but I want to nominate two nurses in particular, Luis and Jenny."

Mr Johnson was treated in the intensive care unit for Covid-19 at the London Hospital before the couple's first child was born weeks later at University College Hospital.

On their first TV appearance together on Sunday, Boris Johnson and his fiancée Carrie Symonds will commend NHS medics for saving the prime minister's life as he battled coronavirus and gave birth to their son

On their first TV appearance together on Sunday, Boris Johnson and his fiancée Carrie Symonds will commend NHS medics for saving the prime minister's life as he battled coronavirus and gave birth to their son

On their first TV appearance together, a recording for the Pride of Britain Awards, they will thank the frontline staff on a Sunday program for their “courage and commitment” during the pandemic

On their first TV appearance together, a recording for the Pride of Britain Awards, they will thank the frontline staff on a Sunday program for their "courage and commitment" during the pandemic

Baby Wilfred was born on April 29th, less than two weeks after Mr Johnson left the hospital

Baby Wilfred was born on April 29th, less than two weeks after Mr Johnson left the hospital

Timeline: Boris & # 39; fight against the coronavirus

26th of March: Boris Johnson announces that he tested positive for coronavirus in a Twitter video and continues to work in self-isolation from his number 11 apartment.

2nd of April: The PM comes out of self-isolation

3rd of April: He tells people to stay home

April 5th: According to Downing Street, as a precaution, the Prime Minister was rushed to St. Thomas' Hospital after persistent symptoms.

April 6th: Mr Johnson is being transferred to the hospital intensive care unit after his condition deteriorates but does not require ventilation. Dominic Raab starts to represent the PM.

9th April: He was brought back from the intensive care unit to the normal ward.

11 April: The prime minister has been discharged from the hospital. He thanked NHS staff for saving his life in a video from Downing Street before heading to Checkers with his pregnant fiancée, Carrie Symonds.

26th of April: Mr Johnson comes back to number 10 as he prepares to return to work.

On March 27, he announced that he tested positive for the virus but continues to work from home, leading cabinet meetings and posting on social media.

In a video message on Twitter, he said, “I work from home and I am self-isolating, and that is entirely true.

"But do not doubt that thanks to the wizardry of modern technology I can move on to communicate with all my top team and lead the national fight against the coronavirus."

Health Secretary Matt Hancock also announced that he had tested positive for Covid-19 while Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said he had symptoms of the disease and was self-isolating.

Some asked why the Prime Minister took a business as usual approach after banning the rest of the UK and Mr Johnson was accused of not following his own advice.

The House of Commons continued to sit together, with cabinet meetings and daily press conferences being held in person during the first few weeks of March.

Mr Johnson was seen in person on April 2 after stepping outside 11 Downing Street to clap at attendants.

He said to the crowd outside: "I'm not really allowed out, I'm just standing here."

The next day, he urged people to stay home and save lives as he still had a fever.

He urged people not to break the rules of social distancing when the weather warms up, even if they "get a little crazy".

On April 4, the then pregnant Carrie Symonds, 32, said she was on the mend after suffering from coronavirus symptoms herself.

Shortly after the Prime Minister's announcement on March 27, Ms. Symonds, who normally lives with him at # 11, shared a photo of herself with the couple's dog, Dilyn, in Camberwell, south London.

Just a few days later, on April 5, Mr. Johnson was admitted to the hospital for tests.

On April 6, Mr Johnson tweeted, "Last night, on the advice of my doctor, I went to the hospital for some routine tests as I still have coronavirus symptoms. I'm in a good mood and keep in touch with my team as we work together to fight this virus and keep everyone safe.

“I want to thank all of the brilliant NHS staff who looked after me and others during this difficult time. You're the best in Britain.

"Stay safe and remember to stay home to protect the NHS and save lives."

Nur wenige Stunden später sagte Downing Street, der Zustand des Premierministers habe sich verschlechtert, und auf Anraten seines medizinischen Teams sei er auf die Intensivstation des Krankenhauses verlegt worden.

Frau Symonds sagt im Video: „Sie kümmern sich auch in den schwierigsten Zeiten weiterhin um uns alle, und dank Ihnen ist Boris nicht nur immer noch hier, sondern wir sind stolze Eltern unseres süßen Jungen

Frau Symonds sagt im Video: „Sie kümmern sich auch in den schwierigsten Zeiten weiterhin um uns alle, und dank Ihnen ist Boris nicht nur immer noch hier, sondern wir sind stolze Eltern unseres süßen Jungen

Der Premierminister fügt dann hinzu: „Genau richtig. Deshalb möchte ich mich bei dem äußerst brillanten Team des St. Thomas 'Hospital bedanken, das mir das Leben gerettet hat

Der Premierminister fügt dann hinzu: „Genau richtig. Deshalb möchte ich mich bei dem äußerst brillanten Team des St. Thomas 'Hospital bedanken, das mir das Leben gerettet hat

"Es gab viele von ihnen, aber ich möchte insbesondere zwei Krankenschwestern nominieren, Luis und Jenny", sagte Herr Johnson

Am 7. April sagte Downing Street, der Zustand des Premierministers sei "stabil" geblieben und er sei nach seiner ersten Nacht auf der Intensivstation in "guter Stimmung", aber er müsse dort bleiben, um "genau überwacht" zu werden.

Am nächsten Tag soll der Premierminister nach einer zweiten Nacht auf der Intensivstation auf die Behandlung angesprochen haben.

Downing Street sagte, er sei in einem stabilen Zustand geblieben.

Kanzler Rishi Sunak teilte später der täglichen Pressekonferenz mit Coronaviren mit, dass sich Herr Johnson noch auf der Intensivstation befinde, aber im Bett gesessen und sich mit seinem klinischen Team beschäftigt habe.

Am 9. April wurde der Premierminister von der Intensivstation verlegt und auf eine normale Station gebracht.

Zwei Tage später, am 11. April, wurde er entlassen und dankte den NHS-Mitarbeitern für die Rettung seines Lebens in einem Video aus der Downing Street, bevor er mit seiner damals schwangeren Verlobten Carrie Symonds zu Checkers ging.

Am 26. April kehrte er zu Nummer 10 zurück, und Frau Symonds gebar am 30. April in London mit dem Premierminister an ihrer Seite.

In einem herzerwärmenden Instagram-Post, in dem der Name des Jungen enthüllt wurde, enthüllte Frau Symonds, dass der zweite Vorname Nicholas eine Hommage an zwei NHS-Ärzte war, Dr. Nick Price und Professor Nick Hart, die Boris das Leben gerettet hatten.

Dr. Nick Price

Professor Nick Hart

In einem herzerwärmenden Instagram-Post, in dem der Name des Jungen enthüllt wurde, enthüllte Frau Symonds, dass der zweite Vorname Nicholas eine Hommage an zwei NHS-Ärzte war, Dr. Nick Price (links) und Professor Nick Hart (rechts), die Boris das Leben gerettet hatten.

Zu den ersten, die nach der Ankündigung ihre Glückwünsche sendeten, gehörten die beiden Mediziner, die sagten, sie seien "geehrt und gedemütigt", um als Inspiration für den zweiten Vornamen des Neugeborenen Nicholas zu dienen.

In einer Erklärung sagten sie: „Wir gratulieren dem Premierminister und Carrie Symonds herzlich zur glücklichen Ankunft ihres schönen Sohnes Wilfred.

"Wir fühlen uns geehrt und demütigt, auf diese Weise anerkannt worden zu sein, und wir danken dem unglaublichen Team von Fachleuten, mit denen wir bei Guy's in St. Thomas zusammenarbeiten und die sicherstellen, dass jeder Patient die beste Versorgung erhält."

"Wir wünschen der neuen Familie viel Gesundheit und Glück."

Der Vorname ist eine Hommage an Herrn Johnsons Großvater väterlicherseits, Osman Wilfred Kemal, und Lawrie einen Hinweis auf den Großvater von Frau Symonds.

Begleitend zur Bildunterschrift war ein Foto zu sehen, auf dem die erstmalige Mutter ihren Sohn fest wiegte, der ein außergewöhnlich volles Haar trug, das dem seines Vaters nicht unähnlich war.

Herr Johnson wurde auf der Intensivstation für Covid-19 im Londoner Krankenhaus behandelt, bevor das erste gemeinsame Kind des Paares Wochen später am University College Hospital geboren wurde

Herr Johnson wurde auf der Intensivstation für Covid-19 im Londoner Krankenhaus behandelt, bevor das erste gemeinsame Kind des Paares Wochen später am University College Hospital geboren wurde

Die 32-jährige Verlobte von Herrn Johnson, die in der Bildunterschrift sagte, mein Herz sei voll, enthüllte auch zum ersten Mal, dass Wilfred im Entbindungstrakt des University College Hospital des NHS im Zentrum von London geboren wurde.

Die Überschrift lautete: „Wir stellen vor: Wilfred Lawrie Nicholas, geboren am 29.04.20 um 9 Uhr. Wilfred nach Boris 'Großvater Lawrie nach meinem Großvater Nicholas nach Dr. Nick Price und Dr. Nick Hart – die beiden Ärzte, die Boris letzten Monat das Leben gerettet haben.

„Vielen Dank an das unglaubliche NHS-Mutterschaftsteam der UCLH, das sich so gut um uns gekümmert hat. Ich könnte nicht glücklicher sein. Mein Herz ist voll. '

Es wurde auch bekannt gegeben, dass Boris Johnson am Freitagnachmittag einen Glückwunschanruf vom Herzog von Cambridge erhielt, dessen Aufzeichnung als offizielles Ereignis im Gerichtsrundschreiben aufgezeichnet wurde.

Zu den ersten, die nach der Ankündigung ihre Glückwünsche sendeten, gehörten Dr. Nick Price und Prof. Nick Hart, die sagten, sie seien "geehrt und gedemütigt", um als Inspiration für den zweiten Vornamen des Neugeborenen Nicholas zu dienen.

In einer Erklärung sagten sie: „Wir gratulieren dem Premierminister und Carrie Symonds herzlich zur glücklichen Ankunft ihres schönen Sohnes Wilfred.

"Wir fühlen uns geehrt und demütigt, auf diese Weise anerkannt worden zu sein, und wir danken dem unglaublichen Team von Fachleuten, mit denen wir bei Guy's in St. Thomas zusammenarbeiten und die sicherstellen, dass jeder Patient die beste Versorgung erhält."

"Wir wünschen der neuen Familie viel Gesundheit und Glück."

There was also a message of congratulations from the University College Hospital, where Wilfred was born.

UCLH chief executive Professor Marcel Levi said: 'Congratulations to Carrie Symonds and Prime Minister Boris Johnson on the birth of their son. We wish them every happiness at this special time.

'I would like to thank the teams who cared for Carrie and her baby.

'They are an incredibly skilled, dedicated and compassionate group of professionals who put patients at the heart of everything they do.

'I am very proud of them and all our staff at UCLH who are working extremely hard in very difficult circumstances at the moment.'

Elsewhere in the Sunday broadcast, the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge will present a special recognition award to NHS staff.

What is the infection rate in YOUR city? The interactive module shows how fast Covid-19 outbreaks are increasing across England as official data shows cases are increasing fastest in Hull, Derby and Somerset

By Vanessa Chalmers, health reporter at MailOnline

According to official data that MailOnline has turned into an interactive tool to show how quickly cases are occurring in your city, Covid-19 outbreaks are growing fastest in Hull, Derby and Bath.

Hull and Derby saw their coronavirus epidemics almost double in the seven-day spell ending October 25, with seven-day infection rates jumping to 279 and 329 cases per 100,000 people, respectively.

Both cities, along with the rest of Staffordshire and Derbyshire, will be moved from Tier One into Tier Two from Saturday to try and stem the rise in infections, it was announced yesterday as England crept another step closer towards a full national lockdown.

But most of the authorities where epidemics have grown the most remain in Tier One, where only the rule of six and 10pm curfew apply. Scientists have argued these rules are not stringent enough to shrink the outbreak, with top Government advisers warning the current growth is 'very bleak'.

For example, North Somerset and Bath and North East Somerset, where cases jumped up 83 per cent and 70 per cent in one week, have yet to be hit by any tougher virus-controlling restrictions. It comes despite warnings that the coronavirus crisis is 'speeding up' in the south of the country.

Public Health England's weekly surveillance report found that only 20 out of 150 authorities in England saw a decrease in infections last week, including Nottingham, where cases have decreased by 30 percent. Despite the city's outbreak shrinking, it will be thrown under the toughest Tier Three restrictions from tomorrow, along with the rest of the county.

And the data offered more proof that the tightest lockdown measures do work, with Liverpool, Knowsley, Sefton and St Helens all seeing their weekly coronavirus infection rates drop. All of the Merseyside area has been under Tier Three lockdown since October 14.

It suggests the brutal restrictions — which ban people from socialising with anyone outside their own household and mean many pubs, bars, and in some cases gyms, have to close — are beginning to work. However, scientists say the true effect of measure won't be clear until a few weeks have passed.

It comes as Boris Johnson is facing renewed pressure from his medical officers to impose a nation-wide shutdown before and after Christmas in a bid to allow families to gather over the holidays. Dominic Raab today hinted No10 could introduce a new Tier Four set of even stricter restrictions and refused to rule out a national lockdown.

Percentage change in coronavirus cases across England for the week ended October 25: The five local authorities that have seen the highest increase in infection rates are: Kingston upon Hull City, 92.81 percent; Derby, 91.84 per cent; North Somerset, 82.99 per cent; Medway, 77.17 per cent; and Bath and North East Somerset 69.72 per cent

Percentage change in coronavirus cases across England for the week ended October 25: The five local authorities that have seen the highest increase in infection rates are: Kingston upon Hull City, 92.81 percent; Derby, 91.84 per cent; North Somerset, 82.99 per cent; Medway, 77.17 per cent; and Bath and North East Somerset 69.72 per cent

Yesterday it was announced another 16 authorities would be dragged into Tier Two from Saturday. A number of them were among the 20 places where outbreaks have significantly worsened, according to Public Health England (PHE) data.

PHE's data is based on the number of positive swabs within the week October 19 to 25. The new infections can be divided by the population size for each given area to give a case rate per 100,000 people. This allows for figures between different areas to be compared accurately.

For example in Kingston upon Hull, 279 new cases were diagnosed per 100,000 people in that seven-day period. The week prior, the figure was 145, showing an increase of 93 per cent.

Similarly Derby city's infection rate rose by 92 per cent, from 171 to 328 cases per 100,000. It suggests that the outbreak is doubling every seven days in those locations.

But both areas may have asked for more testing to help them contain the virus, meaning just looking at the growth may not paint the entire picture. Department of Health statistics that breakdown tests processed by local authority only go up until October 21, meaning it is not possible to tell exactly how much swabbing skewed the figures over that fortnight.

Earlier this week, Derby's director of public health, Dr Robyn Dewis, called for all the city's 259,000 residents to start adhering to Tier Two restrictions.

The advice came in anticipation of being moved into the higher level, which ministers confirmed last night would be happening. Amber Valley, Bolsover, Derbyshire Dales, Derby City, South Derbyshire, and the whole of High Peak will be moved into Tier Two as of Saturday.

Dr Dewis told MailOnline: 'I can never feel pleased to be asking our residents to make restrictions in their daily lives, however I do feel that it is urgent that we take action to reduce the spread of the virus.

'We have seen a rapid growth across the city with all wards affected. Importantly we are now seeing a significant increase in the over 60s who are infected.'

Meanwhile, North Somerset (83 per cent increase) and Bath and North East Somerset (70 per cent increase) also saw major growths in their outbreaks.

But their infection rates of 130.2 and 191 are currently well below the average for the UK (230 per 100,000). This may explain why they remain in the 'medium' alert level, Tier One.

Matt Lenny, director of public health at North Somerset Council said in a statement: 'Analysis of the latest case data also shows that there's no clear pattern of infection in local communities.

'The case data tells us that the virus is circulating generally in our community and we are no longer seeing greater rates of infection just in younger people.

'I urge every resident in North Somerset to make the right choices when going about their daily lives.

'We are at a critical point as cases rise and people mix and spend more time indoors. We should all be acting as if we already have the virus and modifying our behaviours to reduce the spread.'

While locations in Somerset, England are not considered Covid-19 hotspots, they can if action is not taken sooner rather than later to slow the spread of growth.

WHERE DID THE INFECTION RATE GROW THE MOST?

Kingston upon Hull, City of 92.81%

Derby 91.84%

North Somerset 82.99%

Medway 77.17%

Bath and North East Somerset 69.72%

South Gloucestershire 62.13%

Herefordshire, County of 58.10%

Derbyshire 57.98%

Stoke-on-Trent 56.79%

Lincolnshire 55.26%

Staffordshire 55.21%

Leicestershire 54.29%

Southampton 54.02%

Brighton and Hove 52.57%

Milton Keynes 50.88%

Swindon 49.99%

East Riding of Yorkshire 49.32%

Dudley 49.07%

West Sussex 46.89%

Leicester 46.57%

WHERE DID THE INFECTION RATE GROW THE LEAST?

Nottingham -30.00%

Liverpool -20.98%

York -20.25%

Windsor and Maidenhead -20.09%

Knowsley -18.18%

County Durham -15.51%

Sefton -12.54%

Rutland -11.63%

Devon -11.12%

Camden -10.03%

Halton -7.95%

South Tyneside -5.35%

Hackney and City of London -4.60%

Richmond upon Thames -3.96%

St. Helens -3.80%

Hartlepool -3.68%

Slough -3.02%

Sheffield -2.46%

Leeds -1.22%

Newcastle upon Tyne -0.42%

Experts have previously said it's the speed at which an outbreak is growing — and not its current size — that is the most important factor when considering the severity of the situation in any given area.

Ministers are understood to analyse a 'basket' of indicators to make decisions on Covid-19 restrictions, including the infection rate, hospital admissions and speed of growth.

South Gloucestershire, in the south west, and Herefordshire in the West Midlands, also saw their outbreaks rapidly grow in the space of one week, by around 60 per cent. However, their infection rates are also lower than the national average and currently stand at 192 and 86, respectively.

The figures indicate the 'second wave' is now affecting all corners of England, and not just the north.

Scientists warned this week infections are 'speeding up' in the south.

A worrying Government-funded study by Imperial College London found that the outbreak appears to be growing fastest in London and the South West, where rules are comparatively lax, and slowest in the northern regions with the toughest restrictions.

They predicted the R rate — the average number of people each carrier infects — is also higher than two in the South East, East and South West, which have mostly escaped any tough local lockdowns.

But the R rate in the capital is higher than anywhere else in England, at three. For comparison, the experts claimed the national R rate is around 1.6. Cases are doubling every three days compared to every nine days in the rest of England, the study claimed.

The PHE data shows just 20 out of 149 councils recorded a fall in their Covid-19 infection rates in the week ending October 25. For comparison, 23 saw a dip the week before.

A  number of large cities saw their infection rates drop in the week to October 25. This includes Nottingham (down 30 per cent), Liverpool (down 21 per cent), Sheffield (down 2.46 per cent) and Leeds (down 1.22 per cent).

But despite this, Nottingham and Leeds will be plunged into Tier Three restrictions this weekend. And there are no clear path for Liverpool and Sheffield to move out of their local 'lockdowns'.

Liverpool, and the rest of Merseyside including Halton, Knowsley, Sefton, St Helens and Wirral, went straight into Tier Three when the tiered system came into force on October 14. All those places saw infection rates drop in the most recent week, other than Wirral, where cases only rose by 6 per cent.

A number of places under Tier Two also saw drops in infection rates, including York (20 per cent), South Tyneside (5 per cent) and Newcastle upon Tyne (down a slight 0.42 per cent).

Parts of London — Camden (down 10 per cent), Hackney and City of London (down 4.60 per cent) and Richmond upon Thames (down 3.96 per cent) — also saw improvements in infection rates. These areas have some of the highest infection rates in London, suggesting that residents have acted to control the coronavirus.

Londoners are currently banned from meeting indoors with anyone they don't live with.

However London Mayor Sadiq Khan is piling on pressure on No10 to drag the city into Tier Three, despite infection rates varying across the 32 different boroughs – from 223 positive tests per 100,000 people in Ealing over the most recent week, to 103 per 100,000 in Lewisham.

Martin McKee, a professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and member of Independent Sage, said: 'We unfortunately have allowed the infection to get out of control and as a consequence we are going to need to turn this around, otherwise it will just keep going up, more will get seriously ill and more people will die.

'The sooner we impose tighter restrictions, the better. I see MEPs saying, "The prices in my region are low, so we shouldn't do anything". Es geht nicht darum, ob der Fall niedrig ist, es geht darum, ob sie schnell zunehmen.

“We saw very clearly in March that it was better sooner than later. So we really should be doing this now, we really have no time to lose.'

But Professor McKee stressed that with tighter restrictions, three essential things are needed — a clampdown on indoor social mixing where the virus can spread easily, mental health support, and a working test and trace system. Currently the UK's NHS Test and Trace is not performing to the 'world beating' status that was promised.

Professor McKee added: 'As long as infections are going up, we have a major problem. Simply because of the nature of exponential growth. Es ist eine einfache Natur der Mathematik. Even if the infections are going up even slightly, the rate of growth will go upwards faster.

'On the other hand, if we can put in really stringent measure to stop people mixing with each other, you can get a large drop in quite a short period of time.

Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, said: 'The Tier One restrictions are clearly not working in terms of suppressing the epidemic. I suspect the government would decide to increase, in most areas of the country, will at least move into Tier Two in the next month. And some of the current Tier Two will move into Tier Three.

“The interesting thing is that things are not going as fast as they used to be in the northern cities. And in some of those cities, such as Liverpool, it does seem to be declining a bit already.

“I think it's a little early to say if these Level 2 / Tier 3 levels aren't working. The bottom line is that the higher restrictions might work, but it's too early to be sure.

“In the rural areas of the southern small town, many of the current increases are currently taking place. It is very evident that the cases in the south are now increasing. Pretty much everywhere in between is on the up.

'The issue is what time will they decide that is no longer acceptable or tolerable and then increase restrictions in those areas.'

Simon Clarke, an associate professor in cellular microbiology at University of Reading, said: 'Are local restriction enough? They should be, but the problem is not so much going from Tier Two to Three, but going from One to Two. We know in certain parts of the country that is not happening quickly enough.

'My gut feeling is we are heading for tightening restrictions between now and into the new year. I think that it will be something like Tier Three or perhaps tighter. I think we will get a tier 4 added on top. Aber es ist nur eine Vermutung. '

HOW HAVE INFECTION RATES CHANGED IN YOUR AREA?
Local authority name Sept 21 to 27 Sept 28 to Oct 4 Veränderung Oct 5 to 11 Veränderung Oct 12 to 18 Veränderung Oct 19 to 25 Veränderung
Barking and Dagenham 62 63.41 39.18% 98.17 54.82% 119.3 21.52% 131.51 10.23%
Barnet 43.2 86.39 267.77% 110.64 28.07% 114.68 3.65% 140.7 22.69%
Barnsley 76.56 148.66 336.85% 279.91 88.29% 457.33 63.38% 499.06 9.12%
Bath and North East Somerset 37.25 67.78 367.77% 120.03 77.09% 112.79 -6.03% 191.43 69.72%
Bedford 47.9 74.44 138.90% 81.37 9.31% 87.14 7.09% 88.29 1.32%
Bexley 28.19 56.39 141.40% 66.05 17.13% 82.97 25.62% 113.58 36.89%
Birmingham 147.92 159.31 28.64% 190.92 19.84% 227.36 19.09% 257.75 13.37%
Blackburn with Darwen 182.37 257.86 30.41% 446.24 73.06% 576.5 29.19% 774.24 34.30%
Blackpool 91.79 197.21 169.60% 288.28 46.18% 424.54 47.27% 425.97 0.34%
Bolton 244.13 265 9.80% 335.25 26.51% 442.01 31.84% 546.34 23.60%
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole 25.55 74.12 252.95% 134.57 81.56% 144.44 7.33% 184.91 28.02%
Bracknell Forest 25.3 40.8 212.40% 53.04 30.00% 81.6 53.85% 84.86 4.00%
Bradford 184.34 293.27 98.37% 335.14 14.28% 395.72 18.08% 481.13 21.58%
Brent 50.64 79.45 181.74% 99.16 24.81% 98.55 -0.62% 113.41 15.08%
Brighton and Hove 21.66 62.22 448.68% 82.51 32.61% 93.51 13.33% 142.67 52.57%
Bristol, City of 28.27 66.47 275.54% 156.46 135.38% 245.37 56.83% 333.64 35.97%
Bromley 27.68 55.67 242.58% 70.11 25.94% 89.97 28.33% 108.93 21.07%
Buckinghamshire 24.82 48.35 182.75% 88.98 84.03% 86.77 -2.48% 104.6 20.55%
Bury 216.24 290.59 52.89% 389.55 34.05% 430.39 10.48% 526.21 22.26%
Calderdale 97.42 173.56 135.27% 242.6 39.78% 311.65 28.46% 410.49 31.72%
Cambridgeshire 18.06 45.29 355.18% 65.34 44.27% 67.48 3.28% 82.17 21.77%
Camden 27.4 55.55 138.11% 111.84 101.33% 121.84 8.94% 109.62 -10.03%
Central Bedfordshire 23.56 37.76 67.67% 51.27 35.78% 61.67 20.28% 71.37 15.73%
Cheshire East 61.17 141.35 287.90% 168.68 19.33% 173.11 2.63% 215.8 24.66%
Cheshire West and Chester 78.12 143.7 220.12% 191.21 33.06% 199.08 4.12% 214.53 7.76%
Cornwall and Isles of Scilly 40.4 26.58 32.17% 32 20.39% 30.78 -3.81% 44.95 46.04%
County Durham 110.55 201.29 209.30% 338.05 67.94% 329.56 -2.51% 278.44 -15.51%
Coventry 74.56 108.2 95.13% 166.34 53.73% 184.11 10.68% 199.99 8.63%
Croydon 32.58 66.46 307.98% 75.25 13.23% 79.39 5.50% 105.76 33.22%
Cumbria 51.2 86.6 252.03% 121.6 40.42% 152.4 25.33% 170.2 11.68%
Darlington 103.93 176.03 358.53% 206.92 17.55% 286.51 38.46% 296.81 3.59%
Derby 43.14 82.78 124.21% 134.08 61.97% 171.39 27.83% 328.8 91.84%
Derbyshire 44.35 93.44 201.23% 144.51 54.66% 186.5 29.06% 294.63 57.98%
Devon 18.82 84.37 957.27% 105.69 25.27% 78.52 -25.71% 69.79 -11.12%
Doncaster 62.84 147.81 177.73% 220.27 49.02% 350.76 59.24% 513.64 46.44%
Dorset 11.36 25.1 352.25% 60.76 142.07% 72.39 19.14% 103.3 42.70%
Dudley 56.28 79.29 90.28% 102.3 29.02% 150.81 47.42% 224.82 49.07%
Ealing 55.29 98.01 248.91% 139.85 42.69% 162.08 15.90% 212.4 31.05%
East Riding of Yorkshire 49.83 109.33 372.06% 133.36 21.98% 172.35 29.24% 257.35 49.32%
East Sussex 14.72 30.51 359.49% 44.86 47.03% 50.43 12.42% 58.32 15.65%
Enfield 42.54 72.8 158.52% 93.77 28.80% 137.21 46.33% 138.41 0.87%
Essex 26.66 48.35 176.92% 69.97 44.72% 90.25 28.98% 99.05 9.75%
Gateshead 162.33 241.02 83.08% 255.38 5.96% 259.34 1.55% 355.84 37.21%
Gloucestershire 19.62 40.5 200.00% 62 53.09% 62.63 1.02% 68.6 9.53%
Greenwich 36.47 50.7 217.27% 75.36 48.64% 85.43 13.36% 92.73 8.55%
Hackney and City of London 55.36 101.77 311.03% 132.37 30.07% 164.35 24.16% 156.79 -4.60%
Halton 265.82 343.1 80.49% 387.91 13.06% 340 -12.35% 312.96 -7.95%
Hammersmith and Fulham 45.91 75.08 238.96% 115.59 53.96% 163.12 41.12% 190.12 16.55%
Hampshire 16.78 35.08 219.20% 55.48 58.15% 68.35 23.20% 94.32 38.00%
Haringey 40.95 89.34 192.73% 116.88 30.83% 126.93 8.60% 142.57 12.32%
Harrow 42.2 95.95 244.28% 116.26 21.17% 127.81 9.93% 133.78 4.67%
Hartlepool 153.74 250.9 213.35% 274.39 9.36% 348.06 26.85% 335.24 -3.68%
Havering 58.18 60.49 80.46% 100.56 66.24% 126.76 26.05% 148.72 17.32%
Herefordshire, County of 12.97 22.3 152.83% 37.86 69.78% 54.46 43.85% 86.1 58.10%
Hertfordshire 30.94 66.83 166.79% 87.35 30.70% 90.79 3.94% 106.68 17.50%
Hillingdon 57.35 75.28 117.95% 102.32 35.92% 135.24 32.17% 160 18.31%
Hounslow 57.82 81.39 166.24% 105.7 29.87% 139.21 31.70% 177.15 27.25%
Isle of Wight 11.29 12.7 259.77% 17.63 38.82% 24.69 40.05% 31.04 25.72%
Islington 42.89 76.3 198.40% 90.32 18.37% 121.25 34.24% 126.62 4.43%
Kensington and Chelsea 24.34 81.34 262.80% 94.15 15.75% 135.14 43.54% 138.99 2.85%
Kent 16.44 34.46 240.51% 50.46 46.43% 54.25 7.51% 75.24 38.69%
Kingston upon Hull, City of 35.41 95.85 555.16% 107.01 11.64% 144.74 35.26% 279.08 92.81%
Kingston upon Thames 33.24 72.11 255.57% 101.97 41.41% 144.78 41.98% 184.22 27.24%
Kirklees 118.92 192.37 106.85% 254.44 32.27% 300.37 18.05% 388.82 29.45%
Knowsley 335.41 602.54 182.30% 700.64 16.28% 663.52 -5.30% 542.88 -18.18%
Lambeth 41.71 77.6 272.00% 92.94 19.77% 122.38 31.68% 137.1 12.03%
Lancashire 160.6 246.02 139.88% 347.6 41.29% 387.44 11.46% 426.22 10.01%
Leeds 170.46 379.13 239.39% 394.63 4.09% 393.5 -0.29% 388.71 -1.22%
Leicester 111.51 140.31 23.94% 184.06 31.18% 222.46 20.86% 326.06 46.57%
Leicestershire 51.12 92.19 124.47% 161.58 75.27% 176.87 9.46% 272.89 54.29%
Lewisham 34 64.09 206.21% 77.16 20.39% 79.13 2.55% 90.57 14.46%
Lincolnshire 27.85 63.19 238.82% 92.61 46.56% 103.65 11.92% 160.93 55.26%
Liverpool 342.94 580.27 186.43% 681.47 17.44% 584.69 -14.20% 462.01 -20.98%
Luton 61.96 72.28 41.28% 89.65 24.03% 141.28 57.59% 150.2 6.31%
Manchester 307.67 558.19 215.22% 474.62 -14.97% 438.99 -7.51% 486.2 10.75%
Medway 17:59 30.87 177.36% 38.77 25.59% 45.59 17.59% 80.77 77.17%
Merton 26.63 47.93 266.72% 77.95 62.63% 95.38 22.36% 134.11 40.61%
Middlesbrough 136.19 259.61 375.30% 280.89 8.20% 351.82 25.25% 353.95 0.61%
Milton Keynes 24.86 45.28 139.20% 65.69 45.08% 63.46 -3.39% 95.75 50.88%
Newcastle upon Tyne 299.19 492.37 204.91% 466.94 -5.16% 313.39 -32.88% 312.07 -0.42%
Newham 66.26 75.04 100.75% 103.36 37.74% 129.41 25.20% 142.16 9.85%
Norfolk 17.3 38.01 228.52% 50.89 33.89% 63.89 25.55% 84.71 32.59%
North East Lincolnshire 35.1 76.46 481.00% 162.32 112.29% 237.52 46.33% 339.68 43.01%
North Lincolnshire 47.59 94.03 224.02% 151.49 61.11% 170.06 12.26% 191.54 12.63%
North Somerset 27.9 39.99 56.33% 54.87 37.21% 71.15 29.67% 130.2 82.99%
North Tyneside 156.32 232.31 137.93% 251.55 8.28% 210.67 -16.25% 279.44 32.64%
North Yorkshire 67.47 113.1 188.82% 134.29 18.74% 141.09 5.06% 164.39 16.51%
Northamptonshire 24.43 60.14 198.02% 96.25 60.04% 107.53 11.72% 127.31 18.39%
Northumberland 171.2 180.19 114.38% 175.54 -2.58% 176.47 0.53% 179.88 1.93%
Nottingham 94.32 609.79 1523.94% 927.91 52.17% 610.69 -34.19% 427.46 -30.00%
Nottinghamshire 49.74 137.04 387.17% 220.47 60.88% 272.27 23.50% 325.03 19.38%
Oldham 193.58 295.64 62.27% 382.52 29.39% 468.56 22.49% 661.72 41.22%
Oxfordshire 25.59 64.48 309.14% 86.31 33.86% 89.35 3.52% 111.9 25.24%
Peterborough 35.1 62.3 223.13% 81.58 30.95% 95.92 17.58% 125.09 30.41%
Plymouth 23.27 37.77 80.03% 68.68 81.84% 103.01 49.99% 141.55 37.41%
Portsmouth 32.11 50.72 194.54% 104.7 106.43% 144.25 37.77% 163.79 13.55%
read 29.67 43.89 343.78% 74.79 70.40% 95.81 28.11% 109.41 14.19%
Redbridge 73.06 110.74 78.84% 125.15 13.01% 136.95 9.43% 168.4 22.96%
Redcar and Cleveland 70.73 173.53 395.80% 210.72 21.43% 280.71 33.21% 323 15.07%
Richmond upon Thames 39.39 108.58 593.36% 144.94 33.49% 153.02 5.57% 146.96 -3.96%
Rochdale 202.78 335.41 126.06% 429.83 28.15% 508.97 18.41% 574.16 12.81%
Rotherham 100.98 203.08 228.66% 279.57 37.66% 386.19 38.14% 493.2 27.71%
Rutland 42.58 85.16 580.19% 132.74 55.87% 107.7 -18.86% 95.17 -11.63%
Salford 195.49 317.19 114.36% 390.21 23.02% 495.3 26.93% 588.79 18.88%
Sandwell 113.26 114.78 19.67% 146.45 27.59% 216.17 47.61% 275.23 27.32%
Sefton 226.84 371.19 194.83% 477.19 28.56% 438.48 -8.11% 383.49 -12.54%
Sheffield 121.74 385.74 519.76% 455.16 18.00% 431.05 -5.30% 420.45 -2.46%
Shropshire 42.4 59.11 193.79% 86.34 46.07% 84.48 -2.15% 119.45 41.39%
swamp 82.92 86.93 217.03% 92.28 6.15% 155.14 68.12% 150.46 -3.02%
Solihull 90.12 119.7 61.87% 174.7 45.95% 209.36 19.84% 223.69 6.84%
Somerset 13.87 32.9 362.73% 39.13 18.94% 45.89 17.28% 61.36 33.71%
South Gloucestershire 24.2 58.58 255.25% 88.04 50.29% 118.56 34.67% 192.22 62.13%
South Tyneside 221.89 274.88 37.42% 245.07 -10.84% 235.14 -4.05% 222.55 -5.35%
Southampton 19.01 42.77 199.93% 60.19 40.73% 74.05 23.03% 114.05 54.02%
Southend-on-Sea 31.13 42.59 143.79% 48.05 12.82% 68.81 43.20% 82.46 19.84%
Southwark 47.99 60.53 114.42% 79.35 31.09% 95.66 20.55% 121.69 27.21%
St. Helens 254.17 347.76 167.24% 443.56 27.55% 437.47 -1.37% 420.85 -3.80%
Staffordshire 38.66 82.2 173.82% 121.2 47.45% 169.06 39.49% 262.4 55.21%
Stockport 110.42 227.32 162.62% 297.18 30.73% 299.91 0.92% 396.02 32.05%
Stockton-on-teas 100.84 233.6 339.02% 342.54 46.64% 357.24 4.29% 447.43 25.25%
Stoke-on-Trent 49.54 60.46 54.99% 118.19 95.48% 192.3 62.70% 301.51 56.79%
Suffolk 8.41 33.49 298.22% 46.37 38.46% 55.03 18.68% 72.63 31.98%
Sunderland 215.7 296.72 108.61% 299.24 0.85% 321.92 7.58% 323.72 0.56%
Surrey 08/27 66.29 350.65% 83.01 25.22% 94.8 14.20% 106.58 12.43%
Sutton 23.75 36.83 162.14% 81.9 122.37% 90.14 10.06% 114.85 27.41%
Swindon 19.35 27.9 181.82% 45.46 62.94% 69.31 52.46% 103.96 49.99%
Tameside 174.4 245.48 74.84% 322.75 31.48% 371.31 15.05% 513.92 38.41%
Telford and Wrekin 43.92 56.16 173.02% 81.73 45.53% 154.01 88.44% 211.28 37.19%
Thurrock 24.09 43.02 226.16% 75.14 74.66% 122.17 62.59% 157.74 29.12%
Torbay 14.68 49.9 466.40% 82.19 64.71% 100.54 22.33% 126.23 25.55%
Tower hamlet 62.51 85.61 164.80% 97.92 14.38% 133.64 36.48% 148.73 11.29%
Trafford 139.88 279.75 277.28% 336.63 20.33% 327.36 -2.75% 429.74 31.27%
Wakefield 86.13 163.93 243.96% 238.87 45.71% 310.64 30.05% 401.08 29.11%
Walsall 83.37 122.25 81.76% 168.84 38.11% 211.57 25.31% 305.8 44.54%
Waltham Forest 47.3 79.43 147.21% 94.95 19.54% 102.53 7.98% 135.75 32.40%
Wandsworth 37.92 71.89 243.48% 101.31 40.92% 114.35 12.87% 143.78 25.74%
Warrington 197.61 268.55 102.15% 337.6 25.71% 348.55 3.24% 406.64 16.67%
Warwickshire 40.49 70.94 98.05% 101.05 42.44% 126.14 24.83% 166.63 32.10%
West Berkshire 22.72 39.13 181.92% 49.23 25.81% 57.43 16.66% 83.94 46.16%
West Sussex 21.64 33.1 148.69% 43.06 30.09% 50.35 16.93% 73.96 46.89%
Westminster 08/29 71.18 220.63% 88.02 23.66% 108.3 23.04% 135.08 24.73%
Wigan 160.04 274.45 124.39% 407.71 48.56% 460.66 12.99% 655.99 42.40%
Wiltshire 15.2 32.8 221.57% 53.8 64.02% 68 26.39% 84.2 23.82%
Windsor and Maidenhead 31.7 80.57 335.75% 113.59 40.98% 141.33 24.42% 112.93 -20.09%
Weird 193.82 252.77 61.86% 315.42 24.79% 267.27 -15.27% 282.71 5.78%
Wokingham 28.64 45 327.76% 61.36 36.36% 76.55 24.76% 95.26 24.44%
Wolverhampton 83.16 75.94 21.21% 133.66 76.01% 191 42.90% 246.43 29.02%
Worcestershire 43.47 70.83 232.22% 93.15 31.51% 105.24 12.98% 128.4 22.01%
York 72.64 195.14 341.89% 266.36 36.50% 307.19 15.33% 244.99 -20.25%

Tägliche Covid-19-Fälle stiegen letzte Woche in England um 50% und 1 von 100 Menschen wurde vor einer Woche infiziert, schätzt ONS – aber der Ausbruch einer separaten Studie behauptet, der Ausbruch sei "stetig".

Von Sam Blanchard, Senior Health Reporter bei MailOnline

Die täglichen Coronavirus-Infektionen in England stiegen letzte Woche um 50 Prozent, da laut einer von der Regierung durchgeführten Überwachungsstudie täglich fast 52.000 Menschen an dem Virus erkrankten.

Daten des Amtes für nationale Statistiken warnten, dass einer von 100 Menschen im Land vor einer Woche mit Covid-19 infiziert war, was die Agentur dazu veranlasste, zu sagen, dass die Fälle "stark zunehmen". Schätzungen, die heute veröffentlicht wurden, haben gezeigt, dass sich die Zahl der Menschen, die sich mit dem Virus infiziert haben, innerhalb von 14 Tagen fast verdoppelt hat und in dem am 23. Oktober endenden siebentägigen Zeitraum mehr als 568.000 Menschen gleichzeitig infiziert waren.

The report predicted that 51,900 people caught Covid-19 every day in England last week, up from 35,200 per day the week before and 27,900 the week before that.

ONS experts warned 'the number of infections continues to increase', and added: 'There has been growth in all age groups over the past two weeks; older teenagers and young adults continue to have the highest current rates while rates appear to be steeply increasing among secondary school children.'

Andere Forscher am King's College London sagten jedoch voraus, dass in England täglich rund 32.000 neue symptomatische Fälle auftreten, und behaupteten, dass die Infektionen "stetig" zunehmen und "nicht außer Kontrolle geraten". Professor Tim Spector, der Epidemiologe hinter der Studie des Königs, sagte, die Verbreitung von Covid-19 sei derzeit "stetig" und könnte sich in Schottland sogar verlangsamen. Das Team schätzte, dass sich die Fälle in Großbritannien einmal im Monat verdoppeln.

SAGE-Aktualisierungen der geschätzten Reproduktionsrate (R) des Coronavirus zeigten heute, dass das R seit letzter Woche in Großbritannien und England von einem möglichen Bereich von 1,2-1,4 auf 1,1-1,3 gefallen zu sein scheint. Das projizierte R – von dem bekannt ist, dass es auf Daten basiert, die zwei bis drei Wochen alt sind – fiel in drei Regionen, blieb in drei Regionen stabil und stieg nur in einer – den Midlands. Trotz des Hoffnungsschimmers sagte das Beratungsgremium von No10, es sei "fast sicher, dass die Epidemie im ganzen Land weiterhin rasant zunimmt".

Die Aktualisierungen kommen nach einer schockierenden Massenteststudie, die gestern veröffentlicht wurde und schätzungsweise 96.000 Menschen jeden Tag am 25. Oktober in England an der Krankheit erkrankte. Imperial College London academics – whose projection was based on thousands of random test results – warned the R rate could even be as high as three in London.

But this report, which piled even more pressure on Boris Johnson to act to avoid another full-blown crisis, came alongside a conflicting forecast which put the figure at closer to 56,000, sparking confusion about how severe the UK's second wave really is. Tests des Gesundheitsministeriums haben in der letzten Woche durchschnittlich nur 22.125 Fälle pro Tag festgestellt, wobei gestern 23.065 diagnostiziert wurden.

Looking back on the numbers of people dying can also give an impression of how widely Covid-19 is spreading – Government officials estimate 0.5 per cent of coronavirus patients die, which suggests the average 154 people who died each day in the week up to October 23 was the result of 31,000 new daily infections at the start of the month.

Professor Spector said the King's College team, working alongside health-tech company ZOE, wanted to 'reassure' people that the situation did not seem to be as bad as 'other surveys' had suggested.

Laut SAGE ist die Reproduktionsrate in Großbritannien – die durchschnittliche Anzahl der mit Covid-19 infizierten Patienten – in der zweiten Woche in Folge auf 1,1 bis 1,3 gesunken. Dies bleibt jedoch weiterhin über 1, was darauf hinweist, dass der Ausbruch des Landes immer noch zunimmt.

In other coronavirus news:

Data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) estimated that nearly 52,000 people contracted the virus every day, and one in 100 people in the country was infected with Covid-19 a week ago

Data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) estimated that nearly 52,000 people contracted the virus every day, and one in 100 people in the country was infected with Covid-19 a week ago

Katherine Kent, co-head of analysis for the ONS's Covid-19 infection survey, said: 'Following the expansion of ONS infection survey, we are now seeing evidence of increases in Covid-19 infections across the UK.

'In England, infections have continued to rise steeply, with increases in all regions apart from in the North East, where infections appear to have now levelled off.

'Wales and Northern Ireland have also all seen increased infections, though it is currently too early to see a certain trend in Scotland, where we have been testing for a shorter period.

'When looking at infections across different age groups, rates now seem to be steeply increasing among secondary school children whilst older teenagers and young adults continue to have the highest levels of infection.'

The ONS report, which is considered the most accurate way of estimating the true size of England's Covid-19 outbreak, said the North of England remains worst-hit but infections appeared to have 'levelled off' in the North East.

In the North West, the report estimated, one in every 43 people was carrying the virus last week – a positivity rate of 2.3 per cent.

In Yorkshire & Humber this was 1.9 per cent – one in 53 people – and in the North East it was 1.2 per cent – one in every 83.

In the East and West Midlands the positive test rate was one per cent – the same as the England average – while the other regions had rates lower than one, with 0.8 per cent in London and 0.5 in the East, South East and South West.

The report said: 'Looking at trends over time, there has been growth in positivity in most regions of England over the last two weeks. Rates continue to increase steeply in the North West and Yorkshire and The Humber.

'Positivity rates in the North East have levelled off in recent weeks but remain above the England average. Previously, positivity rates in the South West were level, however, the rates appear to be increasing. But as the rates remain low, caution should be taken when interpreting whether rates are increasing in the South West.'

It also pointed out that there remain differences in case rates between age groups, and that young people continue to drive the outbreak, with infections rising 'steeply' among teenagers.

The rate of infection appeared to surge from one per cent to 1.5 per cent – equal to a rise from one in 100 people to one in 67 – between October 12 and October 23, which was a bigger rise than in any other age group.

Numbers of people being diagnosed with the illness have soared since the start of September to a current daily average of 22,125.

But testing only picks up a fraction of the true number of infections because many people don't get tested, don't get ill with the virus or get a wrong negative result.

So studies done by scientists and mathematicians are the most accurate pictures of how many people are truly getting infected with coronavirus, whether it makes them ill or not.

The King's study is based on around one million people with the Covid Symptom Study app reporting whether they feel ill and confirming test results when they have them.

It estimates there are 43,569 new infections per day in the UK in the community, and 34,628 in England. Two-thirds of infections are estimated to be occurring in the North and the Midlands.

19 NHS trusts are already treating more Covid-19 patients than in April and admissions are rising by a third a week

Almost 20 NHS trusts in England are already treating more coronavirus patients than at the peak of the first wave, according to official statistics that come amid warnings hospitals across the country could run out of beds before Christmas.

MailOnline's analysis of official NHS figures reveals 19 trusts are treating higher numbers of Covid-19 patients than at the first peak.

Doncaster and Bassetlaw Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust has three times as many infected patients on its wards now compared to April 12 – England's busiest day in the pandemic. Just 67 beds were occupied by people with the disease then, compared to 201 on October 27, the most recent snapshot published by the NHS.

At Blackpool Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, 196 of its beds were taken up by Covid-19 patients on October 27. It marked a 68 per cent jump compared to levels on April 12, when doctors there were treating 117 infected people.

There are 104 coronavirus sufferers currently being treated in Barnsley Hospital NHS Foundation Trust in South Yorkshire, according to the most recent snapshot from NHS England. This is compared to 63 six months ago, marking a rise of almost two-thirds.

East Lancashire Hospitals NHS Trust currently has 170 people with Covid-19 on its ward compared to 122 in spring, a rise of nearly 40 per cent. A similar story has played out at Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, where patient levels have risen from 210 to 289 (38 per cent).

Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust has 450 virus patients getting care in its Merseyside hospitals, up more than 30 cent on the 346 patients being treated for the disease on April 12. Warrington and Halton Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust has seen the same rate of increase, going from 98 to 128.

Wrightington, Wigan and Leigh NHS Foundation Trust, North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Foundation Trust and Bradford Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust are seeing more than 20 per cent more patients now than in April.

Meanwhile, in Tier Two lockdown areas there have been similar surges in the number of beds occupied by Covid-19 sufferers. Hull University Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, in East Yorkshire, has 54 infected patients, up from 44 six months ago, a rise of 23 per cent.

University Hospitals of North Midlands NHS Trust has 171 infected people on its wards, up more than a quarter from April 12, when there were 124.

Torbay and South Devon NHS Foundation Trust in the South West has technically seen a surge of 44 per cent, though it has far fewer beds than some of the bigger trusts in major cities. As of yesterday it was treating 33 Covid-19 patients compared to 23 on April 12.

The headline estimate is based on the average number of daily infections over the fortnight ending October 25.

The Government-funded Imperial College London study, REACT-1, yesterday estimated there were 96,000 new infections per day. This study is also based on mass population testing and used 85,000 tests from between October 16 and 25.

Meanwhile a 'Nowcast' study by researchers at the University of Cambridge yesterday put the figure at 55,600 per day, based on the numbers of people who are dying of the disease and data showing how much people are travelling and interacting.

Professor Tim Spector, who runs the King's College project, hinted that the highest estimate from the REACT study was over the top.

He said today: 'While cases are still rising across the UK, we want to reassure people that cases have not spiralled out of control, as has been recently reported from other surveys.

'We are still seeing a steady rise nationally, doubling every four weeks, with the possible exception of Scotland which may be showing signs of a slow down.

'With a million people reporting weekly, we have the largest national survey and our estimates are in line with the ONS survey.

'Data on Covid-19 can be confusing for the public and we can't rely simply on confirmed cases or daily deaths, without putting them into context.

'Hospital admissions are rising as expected, but deaths are still average for the season. Wenn wir Bürgerwissenschaftler werden, ist es wichtig, mehrere Quellen zu betrachten, um eine breitere Sicht zu erhalten. '

Looking back on the numbers of people dying of Covid-19, which is what Cambridge's Nowcast is based on, can give a reliable estimate of infections but there are lags in the data because it usually takes more than two weeks for someone to die after catching Covid-19.

Officials believe that around 0.5 per cent of people who catch coronavirus die with it – one in every 200 people who gets infected.

Therefore, the average 154 people who died each day in the UK in the week leading up to October 23 – the most recent reliable data – suggest that 31,000 people were getting infected each day two to three weeks earlier.

This may not, however, take into account differences in the age of people catching the virus. The infection fatality rate is much lower in young people because the disease preys on the elderly.

Britain's second wave was triggered by the virus spreading among teenagers and people in their 20s in early September, when universities and schools went back, and those groups are far less likely to die, meaning there may be a higher ratio of infections to deaths and the 31,000-per-day could be an underestimate.

Data in the Covid Symptom Study estimated that the North West and North East and Yorkshire accounted for half of all of England's new infections each day, at 8,725 and 8,446 per day, respectively.

A further 7,404 of the daily infections were springing up in the Midlands, it suggested, followed by 4,977 per day in London. Lowest was the East of England, with 2,278 per day, and the South West with 2,607.

Scotland accounted for 4,674 new cases per day, the study predicted, followed by 3,397 in Wales and 1,230 in Northern Ireland.

SAGE on Friday  estimated Britain's R rate had fallen for the second week in a row, to between 1.1 and 1.3, in a clear sign the second wave continues to lose steam.

For comparison, the rate was placed between 1.2 and 1.4 in last Friday's report, and the week before it was between 1.3 and 1.5.

But it still remains above one – meaning the number of infections is still growing in the country.

The advisory panel predicted growth may be fastest in the South West, alongside the East of England, Midlands and South East, amid mounting evidence that the virus is no longer just causing havoc in the North. They also revealed infections may be spreading the slowest in the North West, where millions are living under the harshest Tier Three restrictions.

Data from King's College London's Covid Symptom Study app shows that coronavirus cases in the UK have soared to more than 40,000 per day after a lull in the summer but the team behind it maintain that they 'have not spiralled out of control'

Data from King's College London's Covid Symptom Study app shows that coronavirus cases in the UK have soared to more than 40,000 per day after a lull in the summer but the team behind it maintain that they 'have not spiralled out of control'

The North of England and the Midlands remain worst affected by Covid-19, the King's team predicts, with per-person infection rates also high in Scotland, Wales, London and university cities in the South of England including Bristol, Bournemouth, Exeter and Brighton

The North of England and the Midlands remain worst affected by Covid-19, the King's team predicts, with per-person infection rates also high in Scotland, Wales, London and university cities in the South of England including Bristol, Bournemouth, Exeter and Brighton

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