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UK Coronavirus Lockdown: Boris Johnson faces a Tory MP revolt


Boris Johnson is set to defy Tory and business anger tonight by revealing a dramatic new national month-long ban – ordering the public to stay home.

After weeks of insisting that he adhere to local restrictions, the Prime Minister is set to make a humiliating U-turn by sharing blanket coronavirus restrictions for England with medical and science leaders Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance at a press conference around 5 p.m. announces.

The draconian measures, dubbed "Tier Four" on the government's sliding scale, are due to go into effect Thursday morning at midnight after gritty Sage modeling predicted the virus will kill 85,000 people and 4,000 deaths this winter reached per day.

Another 326 deaths in the UK were reported today – almost twice as many as last Saturday. However, the infections, which can more accurately reflect the current situation, fell five percent from the previous week to 21,915, which is a possible sign that the increase may already be slowing.

The brutal pressure will cause non-essential shops in England to close by December 2nd, as well as bars and restaurants, despite the "absolutely devastating" impact on the already crippled hospitality sector.

During the period, households are prohibited from mixing indoors and people are instructed not to leave the house and travel unless there are unavoidable reasons, such as B. Jobs that cannot be done remotely or they need to play sports.

Unlike the March lockdown, schools and universities are expected to remain open – despite warnings from unions that they are key to spreading.

If the rules expire in early December, the tiers system will be reapplied, raising questions about what metrics can be used to assess whether restrictions in an area can be relaxed.

It is also not yet clear whether there will be additional financial support for those affected by the move beyond the "Vacation Lite" program announced by Rishi Sunak earlier this month.

The announcement's meticulous choreography was ripped apart after leaks caused an overnight storm. Downing Street launched a hunt for the mole amid new evidence of cabinet divisions.

Mr Johnson has previously rejected the call for a 'breaker' – a form already implemented in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland – and instead extolled the merits of his 'tiered' system of local action.

Nicola Sturgeon made it clear this afternoon that she does not intend to change her policy on the basis of the new regulations for England. She said, "We will base decisions here on circumstances – although what is happening across our line is clearly not irrelevant to our deliberations."

Hawkish Conservative Backbenchers are in danger of revolting in parliament if the measures come to a vote on Wednesday – the first time MPs have curbs before their introduction.

Mr Johnson could put up with relying on Labor MPs to get action through the Commons and give Sir Keir Starmer a major political victory after spending the past few nights calling for a "breaker" . In a token of Downing Street's desperation to avoid a mutiny, rebel ringleader Steve Baker was called to 10th place for talks this afternoon.

As England prepares for a second national ban:

  • The government said another 326 people died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19. Another 21,915 laboratory-confirmed cases were recorded.
  • The National Education Union has called for schools and colleges to be closed as part of the lockdown as they play a key role in spreading the virus.
  • Health Minister Nadine Dorries claimed the government could only have predicted the need for a second national lockdown with a "crystal ball";
  • A SAGE scientist warned Covid that there is unrest across all age groups and that hospitals are treating four times as many women between the ages of 20 and 40.
  • The number of virus patients in the hospital has doubled in the past 14 days, with 10,708 patients treated by the NHS.
  • According to the ONS, 50,000 people were infected with coronavirus every day. Another 274 deaths were reported yesterday.
  • A survey by the anti-lockdown group Recovery found that more than 70 percent of people were more concerned about the effects of the lockdown than they were about catching Covid.

The prime minister has repeatedly rejected calls from Labor to impose an English-wide "breaker" and has promoted a tiered strategy of local action. He is now expected to turn back and has called his cabinet for a rare Saturday meeting at 1:30 p.m. ahead of a press conference number 10 at 4 p.m.

Despite the bad weather, there were large queues in supermarkets today (picture Southampton) as the inhabitants of England stocked up in anticipation of the gloomy lockdown news

Despite the bad weather, there were large queues in supermarkets today (picture Southampton) as the inhabitants of England stocked up in anticipation of the gloomy lockdown news

Papers prepared by government advisers and forwarded to the BBC show daily projections of death by various modellers compared to the first wave and the government's earlier "reasonable worst-case scenario" - marked in black

Papers prepared by government advisors and forwarded to the BBC show daily projections of death by various modellers compared to the first wave and the government's earlier “reasonable worst-case scenario” – marked in black

Data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) estimated that nearly 52,000 people contracted the virus every day, and one in 100 people in the country was infected with Covid-19 a week ago

Data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) estimated that nearly 52,000 people contracted the virus every day, and one in 100 people in the country was infected with Covid-19 a week ago

Separate data from King & # 39; s College London predicted that around 32,000 cases occur daily in England and that infections are "steadily" increasing and "not getting out of hand".

Separate data from King & # 39; s College London predicted that around 32,000 cases occur daily in England and that infections are "steadily" increasing and "not getting out of hand".

Lockdown 2.0: What the new round of restrictions could look like

Boris Johnson is set to announce a second national lockdown to tackle the resurgent virus. Nothing has been confirmed, but some specific action is likely.

Schools and universities

The schools are expected to remain open. The Prime Minister has said children's education is a "national priority" and has signaled that closing again would be a last resort. The government has also sidestepped the summer exams fiasco, so it is unlikely that there will be another educational battle.

Universities are also likely to remain open, although this is less certain as there have been spikes in infection on campus.

Pubs and restaurants

Government sources suggested that pubs and restaurants are likely to close. Tier 3 pubs have already closed unless they serve food and this is expected to be tightened across the country. Prof. Chris Whitty previously suggested that keeping schools open was a compromise.

Non-essential business

A source told the Times that non-essential stores should be closed. However, following the riot in Wales, the government is unlikely to encourage critical businesses such as supermarkets to sell non-essential items.

travel

People are likely to be told not to travel unless it is essential. Tier 3 guidelines already advise against traveling outside of your region.

Mix

In tier 3, two households are not allowed to socially mix indoors or in private outdoor areas, including a private garden. When the rest of the country is brought to this level, indoor mixing is prohibited unless you have formed a support bubble.

Mr Johnson worked out the changes in meetings with his core ministers who led the Covid response, Chancellor Rishi Sunak, Cabinet Secretary Michael Gove, and Health Secretary Matt Hancock.

But the carefully crafted plans fell to pieces after the form of the proposals leaked.

& # 39; The data is really bad. We are seeing the coronavirus increase across the country and hospitals are struggling to deal with it. Our position has changed, ”a government source told The Times.

Just yesterday, Foreign Minister Dominic Raab insisted that the government's battle plan for localized lockdowns was the right approach.

However, it is believed that Mr Johnson was startled by terrible projections of up to 4,000 daily deaths by the end of December.

One of the models seen by the BBC said deaths would peak in late December before falling in January.

Sages Professor John Edmunds also confirmed that the situation in the country is worse than the reasonable worst-case scenario.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today, "We have actually been well above this reasonable worst-case scenario for some time."

Prof. Edmunds said it was "possible" that there would be 85,000 coronavirus deaths this winter – more than the first wave.

"Unfortunately, it is now really unthinkable that we do not count our deaths among tens of thousands of this wave."

A heated debate raged this morning over whether the government should push plans for a national lockdown.

Calum Semple, colleague from Sage, said: “For those naysayers who don't believe in a second wave, there is a second wave.

"And unlike the first wave when we had a national lockdown that protected huge sections of society, there is now turmoil in all age groups."

He also said there were "many more cases, especially among younger women between the ages of 20 and 40".

However, other top scientists have expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of tougher measures.

Oxford University professor Sunetra Gupta said lockdowns don't build the immunity needed to fight the disease back.

She said, “I don't think death rates have increased. There has been an increase in infections which is very much in line with what you would expect if blocking didn't build immunity.

She added that the vulnerable should protect while everyone else mingles to build a level of immunity: "Infections are building up now because some areas don't have the immunity we would have expected if we hadn't been completely locked down . "

Unions are calling for schools to be closed in a new lockdown

Schools and colleges will have to close if the government imposes another national lockdown, according to the National Education Union.

NEW Joint Secretary General Kevin Courtney also urged ministers to prepare for the introduction of school rotas to end new restrictions.

He said it was "self-destructive" for the government to impose such measures and "ignore the role of schools as the main culprit in the spread of the virus".

Mr Courtney said that failing to involve schools and colleges would likely result in even longer lockdowns going forward.

"The latest numbers from the ONS assume 1 percent of elementary school students and 2 percent of secondary school students have the virus, and those numbers have risen dramatically since it opened in September," he said.

Professor Sikora, a former director of the WHO cancer program, told MailOnline this morning, "It doesn't make any sense, the other problem is that even if you lower the R-number when you come out, it just pops up again."

He added, “It makes a lot more sense to take a regional approach, just keep doing what we do. There's no point doing anything down in Cornwall. «

When asked who is driving the lockdown in the government, Prof. Sikora said: “It's legend, they are all a group of epidemiologists, they are not treatment doctors and they forget that the mathematical model only applies to people with other diseases like cancer or Heart excludes disease, stroke and obstruction lead to more problems in accessing care. People are less willing to go to the hospital. & # 39;

Hawkish Tory MPs are signaling they will oppose the move in parliament.

Tory MP Sir Desmond Swayne told MailOnline that the Commons would have to unsubscribe each time it was blocked. & # 39; There should definitely be a vote. I don't doubt the government will win, ”said the former minister.

“But those of us who, as elected representatives, want to express our opposition have every right to do so. We are a democracy after all.

“I don't doubt it's a tough decision, but that doesn't change the fact that it's the wrong decision. The things it does to our economy, our health, and everything else are worse than the disease they fight. & # 39;

Sir Desmond added, "The long-term average for excessive deaths is roughly normal for the time of year, yet we are told we must take all possible catastrophic measures to prevent the virus from spreading."

Former Minister Bob Syms tweeted, "The government would be unwise to bypass parliament and most Tory MPs are very uncomfortable with this change in policy. Hope Chief Whip explains the numbers to PM."

Former Cabinet Secretary Sir John Redwood said today: “I am full of premonition and before we endorse such a move there must be a compelling case of how well the proposed measures will do in saving lives.

The Minister of Health claims that predicting the lockdown requires a "crystal ball".

A health minister has claimed the government needed a "crystal ball" to predict the need for a second national lockdown.

Nadine Dorries – the first MP to test positive for Covid-19 in March – dismissed criticism that the government was acting too late and said cases among those over 60 had increased faster than expected.

Ms. Dorries wrote on Twitter: “If we had just one crystal ball and we could actually see how many people over 60 were infected, the positivity rate, infection rate, and subsequent delay would allow us to meet the expected demand for hospital beds for 14 days on a given one Day, three weeks in advance. «

Labor Front Bencher Wes Streeting said: “Amazing to see a Minister of Health – yes, a Minister of Health – pointing out that only a crystal ball could have identified the need for a second lockdown. It was in the SAGE MINUTES. & # 39;

“And on the other hand, we need an honest explanation of how much more damage it will do to jobs, livelihoods, and the economy by affecting people's ability to go to work and make a living. We are destroying good businesses that we are closing down in large numbers from cafes, restaurants and hospitality establishments, and there has to be a balance. & # 39;

Andrew Bridgen MP told MailOnline, "These are big decisions that the government must make with enormous economic and political consequences."

& # 39; Sage's so-called experts will not be held accountable for the correctness of their decisions in the next parliamentary elections. We will. & # 39;

But this afternoon there was a glimmer of hope for Mr Johnson when rebel ringleader Steve Baker asked colleagues to "listen extremely carefully" to what Mr Johnson said.

After a briefing outside # 10, Baker told Sky News, “Today I had the opportunity to bring a team to Downing Street. There were three scientists, myself, a data analyst.

“We had a great opportunity to really question the arguments, the dates, the predictions of where we are going and I would tell people that the prime minister has very, very difficult decisions to make.

"And I would like to encourage all members of the public and all members of Parliament to listen extremely carefully to what the Prime Minister is saying today and in the days ahead."

Meanwhile, Health Minister Nadine Dorries – the first MP to test positive for Covid-19 in March – dismissed criticism that the government was acting too late and said cases among those over 60 had risen faster than expected.

Ms. Dorries wrote on Twitter: “If we had just one crystal ball and we could actually see how many people over 60 were infected, the positivity rate, infection rate, and subsequent delay would allow us to meet the expected demand for hospital beds for 14 days on a given one Day, three weeks in advance. «

Nottingham South Labor MP Lilian Greenwood was among those who criticized Mrs Dorries' comments.

She tweeted: “Two weeks ago, Nadine Dorries said that Notts didn't have to get into Tier 3. Given the numbers we'd just come up with from Public Health England, it was clear that would be the case.

"I didn't need a crystal ball, just the ability and willingness to look and listen."

Frontbencher Wes Streeting added, “Amazing to see a Minister of Health – yes, a Minister of Health – pointing out that only a crystal ball could have identified the need for a second lockdown. It was in the SAGE MINUTES. & # 39;

Schools are expected to remain open, but a source told The Times that non-essential stores would close and people were seen stocking up on toilet paper today in scenes similar to the first wave in March (Costco, Manchester , Image).

Schools are expected to remain open, but a source told The Times that non-essential stores would close and people were seen stocking up on toilet paper today in scenes similar to the first wave in March (Costco, Manchester , Image).

Nicola Sturgeon made it clear this afternoon that she does not intend to change her policy on the basis of the new regulations for England

Nicola Sturgeon made it clear this afternoon that she does not intend to change her policy on the basis of the new regulations for England

Percentage change in coronavirus cases across England for the week ended October 25: The five local authorities that have seen the highest increase in infection rates are: Kingston upon Hull City, 92.81 percent; Derby, 91.84 percent; North Somerset, 82.99 percent; Medway, 77.17 percent; and Bath and North East Somerset 69.72 percent

Percentage change in coronavirus cases across England for the week ended October 25: The five local authorities that have seen the highest increase in infection rates are: Kingston upon Hull City, 92.81 percent; Derby, 91.84 percent; North Somerset, 82.99 percent; Medway, 77.17 percent; and Bath and North East Somerset 69.72 percent

Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty in Whitehall today

Tory MP Steve Baker speaks on Downing Street today after talks

Whitehall Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty (left) prepares for the announcement today. Right, Tory MP Steve Baker speaks on Downing Street after talks

Reports of an impending national lockdown came over the weekend when the government's vacation program was suspended.

Hospitality bosses, who were particularly hard hit by the crisis, urgently asked for financial support today.

Kate Nicholls, General Manager of Hospitality UK, told BBC Breakfast: “People have borrowed and spent money trying to get Covid safe.

"There's no spare capacity in the tank to fund a lockdown, even for three to four weeks."

She pointed out that a quarter of companies have not yet reopened and 80% are trading at a significant loss.

Noting that “resilience is down,” she added, “It is a very fearful time for all of our companies doing their best to provide job security for people, to look to the future and to plan.

"We just need some certainty about what's going to happen and some funding to handle this and restart the economy when we get out on the other side."

She added: “Companies just need to have the certainty and security that it is a brief suspension, that a route map will be created from it and that they will receive the support to get through this suspension period – otherwise I fear the loss of jobs and Business failure. & # 39;

Details of the lockdown series came after the mail announced how the Prime Minister was warned by scientists – led by Professor Chris Whitty and scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance – that all hospitals in England will be full by December 17th, there unless he took more action.

Andy Street, the mayor of the West Midlands Conservative, said it was clear that further action was needed. He added: "I don't know if this is a national four-week lockdown, but I know the message is very clear: we need to take further action to turn this tide."

Professor Dominic Harrison, Blackburn Director of Public Health at Darwen Council, called for a breaker because tier three households "did not fully comply" with guidelines.

But Recovery's Jon Dobinson said, “The concept of a four-week lockdown to save Christmas is even more cruel and inhumane, and will continue to fuel the growing mental health crisis – all justified by false hopes.

"People are dying by the thousands from lockdowns and restrictions. It's time to focus."

A scientific source working for the government also told the Times that it was now "too late" for the circuit breaker to trip.

They said, “It is definitely too late to believe that a two week breaker alone would fix us. . . It would almost certainly have to take longer. & # 39;

Commenting on the prospect of a new lockdown, Professor Jeremy Farrar, member of the Sage Scientific Advisory Group, said, “To get Covid-19 under control, we must act now. The virus won't wait for us. & # 39;

THREE IN FOUR COUNTERS OF FEAR MORE THAN VIRUS

Almost three in four Britons are more concerned about the effects of lockdown restrictions than they are about catching the virus, a poll said.

Young people are most concerned about the mental health effects, while a third of retirees are concerned about the suspension of cancer screening.

The results come from a survey by the Restoration Group, which campaigns against excessive Covid restrictions.

Its co-founder Jon Dobinson said, "This poll shows that more and more people share our concerns about the terrible harm locks, fears and limitations."

Respondents asked 2,000 adults to rate their top concerns during the pandemic. Catching Covid was the top concern for 29 percent, followed by 23 percent mental health and 21 percent exposure to cancer screening. Eleven percent were most concerned about the employment outlook and ten percent about the impact on children.

Mental health was the top concern for 18-34 year olds and Londoners were most concerned about losing their jobs.

The infectious disease expert wrote on Twitter: "Nobody wants a lockdown", myself included. Full and generous support to people and businesses is a critical part of making it work.

"But we quickly broke through the reasonable worst-case scenario. In this phase of the epidemic we are further ahead than many assumed."

“The best time to act was a month ago, but these are very difficult decisions that we would all like to avoid. The second best time is now. & # 39;

Professor Gabriel Scally, a wise member and president of the Epidemiology and Public Health Division of the Royal Society of Medicine, said on Twitter: “It is possible to be very concerned about the mental health effects of the pandemic and the treatment of non-pandemic too its Covid conditions and still believe that stricter measures are the best and most necessary course of action. The more the virus spreads, the less capacity the NHS has.

UCL's wise member Professor Christina Pagel added that another national lockdown was "inevitable". The director of clinical operations research told Sky News: “By and large, Covid is spreading particularly in England and Wales.

"I suspect Wales" cases will fall next week when their outbreak takes place. "But basically it is spreading everywhere and at the moment mainly in Tier 1 areas."

When asked if a second national lockdown is worth damaging the economy and people's mental health, she said, "I think this is inevitable, and since it is inevitable, the sooner you do it, I think the the faster it's over and the more lives you save. "

There have also been reports of further Tory infighting, with claims by senior MPs that the lockdown riot was being led by Conservative MPs in the northern Red Wall seats by “selfish young MPs who are old enough to have nothing to fear” from Covid has been.

A conservative elderly statesman said: “Many of our MPs who won seats on the Red Wall last year and are the most fuss about bans are young and not at risk personally.

"You should think about your constituents in their sixties and who are at much greater risk."

The Senior Tory, who is over 60, has selected four MPs to be the most pronounced – William Wragg, who represents Hazel Grove, Manchester, aged 32; Jake Berry, Rossendale and Darwen, 41; Chris Green, Bolton West, 47; and Dehenna Davison, Bishop Auckland, Jan.

The move comes after Boris Johnson and his fiancée Carrie Symonds praised NHS medics for saving the prime minister's life and giving birth to their son in the fight against coronavirus

The move comes after Boris Johnson and his fiancée Carrie Symonds praised NHS medics for saving the prime minister's life and giving birth to their son in the fight against coronavirus

Above are the Covid-19 infection rates in the London boroughs for the week ending October 24, according to official figures

Above are the Covid-19 infection rates in the London boroughs for the week ending October 24, according to official figures

Almost 20 NHS trusts in England are already treating more coronavirus patients than at the height of the first wave. This comes from official statistics, which suggest that hospitals across the country may run out of beds before Christmas

Almost 20 NHS trusts in England are already treating more coronavirus patients than at the height of the first wave. This comes from official statistics, which suggest that hospitals across the country may run out of beds before Christmas

Act now to save Christmas and call on government scientists to warn Britain of worst case scenario unless the country is locked down

By Eleanor Hayward, Xantha Leatham, and Victoria Allen for the Daily Mail

The announcement of the national lockdown is awaited after government scientists said it was necessary to save Christmas.

The experts estimate that there are 1,000 deaths a day in the UK within a month. An additional 274 deaths were reported yesterday, compared with 136 two weeks ago.

There is a delay of about three weeks between infections and deaths. The scientists told ministers that without further restrictions, the death toll will continue to rise exponentially and hospitals will be overwhelmed.

The number of virus patients in the hospital has doubled in the past 14 days. Currently 10,708 are being treated by the NHS.

If this path of doubling every two weeks continues, there will be more than 20,000 hospitalized patients by mid-November, more than at the height of the first wave.

The number of coronavirus infections is currently four times higher than expected in the government's plan for the "worst-case scenario", according to which the daily infections in October are estimated at around 12,000.

This keeps the country on track to beat the previous worst-case scenario of 85,000 Covid-19 deaths this winter.

The new national lockdown comes after the government's Emergency Scientific Advisory Group (Sage) called for urgent national action, including the closure of all bars and restaurants, as well as other places where households mix indoors.

Scientists have warned that the second wave of coronavirus could result in 85,000 deaths, almost twice as many as victims of the first epidemic

Rishi Sunak's Eat Out to Help Out program resulted in a surge in coronavirus cases

According to a study, Rishi Sunak's Eat Out to Help Out program caused a significant increase in coronavirus cases.

Up to 17 percent of the summer cases were linked to the deal, as diners rushed to restaurants in August to get 50 percent off their bill.

A study from Warwick University looked at the number of visitors to the restaurants participating in the program in more than 6,000 areas in England. Then the number of clusters in which three or more were infected was analyzed.

More people tested positive in areas where large numbers of meals were claimed by the deal.

The study, which suggests the program caused crowds to be too close together, concluded that it accounted for an additional 8 to 17 percent of infections in August and early September.

Cases apparently increased within a week of Eat Out to Help Out starting and began to decrease two weeks after it ended.

Dr. Thiemo Fetzer, who contributed to the study that has not yet been published in a journal, blamed the deal for accelerating the second wave. The Treasury said: "Many European colleagues have seen increases in certain cases – regardless of whether similar measures have been put in place."

They believe ministers left it "too late" for a two-week "breaker" lockout – which they called for in September – to work.

Instead, they called for a longer national lockdown, similar to the month-long lockdown imposed yesterday in France.

They argued that this was the best option to bring the R-rate below 1 and prevent the hospital capacity from becoming overwhelmed.

If new measures were put in place quickly, the restrictions could potentially be lifted in time for Christmas so that people can reunite with loved ones during the Christmas season.

A senior official said: "Time marches on, we are two months before Christmas. The more the numbers go up, the harder it is to turn them around."

On Tuesday, it emerged that ministers had been ordered to prepare for 85,000 deaths this winter, with 500 deaths a day and more than 300,000 hospitalized for at least three months.

However, government scientists said yesterday that this "reasonable worst-case scenario" has already been violated.

The planning document had estimated there would be 100 deaths a day by the end of October, but the UK has already seen triple that amount on a few days this week.

In a newly released document from a Sage meeting on October 7th, scientists said, “In England we are violating the number of infections and hospital admissions in the reasonable worst-case scenario

& # 39; It is also very likely that the death rate will exceed the worst-case scenario within the next two weeks.

"If the number of infections were to decrease in the near future, this exceeding of the reasonable worst-case scenario could be modest and short-lived. However, if R stays above 1, the epidemic will continue to deviate from the planning scenario."

Another recent statement by Sage, dated Oct. 14, said: "The number of daily deaths is now in line with the most reasonable worst-case scenario and will almost certainly exceed it within the next two weeks."

The documents also show that scientists have been calling for bars and restaurants to be closed for "anything but take-away" for weeks. An Oct. 7 document produced by SPI-M-O, a subgroup reporting to Sage, said there was "strong evidence" that they were closed to slow the growth of the epidemic.

The data "force Boris to lock up": SAGE publication papers show they sounded the alarm two weeks ago. Britain faces a "worse than worst" scenario with 85,000 deaths – and 52,000 infected with viruses every day

The government's SAGE advisers released papers last night showing how they warned ministers two weeks ago that Britain could be in a more serious situation than its "worst case scenario".

The government's SAGE advisers released papers last night showing how they warned ministers two weeks ago that Britain could be in a more serious situation than its "worst case scenario".

The revelation that Boris Johnson is ready to push Britain into a new national lockdown followed days of briefings and leaks from government advisers – who say coronavirus cases are happening faster than their worst in the UK and the nation within 1,000 deaths could die a month a day.

It culminated in the publication of papers from a meeting of the government's SAGE committee last night showing how they had warned ministers two weeks ago that the UK could be in a more serious situation than its "worst case scenario".

The October 14 document posted online states: "We are violating the number of infections and hospital admissions in the 'Reasonable Worst Case' planning scenario, before adding that the outlook for the future spread of Covid-19 is 'worrying' if no action was taken.

According to consultants' briefings yesterday, they believe there is still time to save Christmas with a lockout period of at least a month that closes restaurants, pubs and all but essential stores.

The experts estimate that in the UK there are 1,000 deaths per day and more than 85,000 deaths from coronavirus within a month. An additional 274 deaths were reported yesterday, compared with 136 two weeks ago.

The SAGE papers from two weeks ago warned that the modeling suggests that up to 74,000 people could be infected per day in England alone, well beyond the worst-case scenario.

There is a delay of about three weeks between infections and deaths. The scientists told ministers that without further restrictions, the death toll will continue to rise exponentially and hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Figures released yesterday by the Separate Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that daily coronavirus infections in England rose by 50 percent last week. It is estimated that nearly 52,000 people contracted the virus every day, and one in 100 people in the country was infected with Covid-19 a week ago.

The weekly update is far lower than another government-funded study called REACT-1, which this week claimed there were 96,000 new cases per day as of October 25, bringing the current outbreak to first wave levels brings.

However, yesterday, other researchers at King's College London predicted around 32,000 new symptomatic cases a day in England, claiming that infections are "steadily increasing" and "not getting out of hand".

The competing predictions have created confusion about how bad the current rate of coronavirus infection is. Professor Tim Spector, the epidemiologist behind the king's study, said the spread of Covid-19 is currently "steady" and may even slow down in Scotland. The team estimated that cases in the UK would double once a month.

As of October 14, SAGE released a document stating that the group warned two weeks ago that the virus was spreading faster than the "worst-case scenario" and that up to 75,000 new infections occur every day

As of October 14, SAGE released a document stating that the group warned two weeks ago that the virus was spreading faster than the "worst-case scenario" and that up to 75,000 new infections occur every day

SAGE's worrying numbers lay behind Prime Minister Boris Johnson's anticipated decision to announce a new national lockdown next week after his scientific advisors told him it was the only way to save Christmas.

SAGE – the Emergency Scientific Advisory Group, made up of senior scientists and disease experts, presented its analysis to the government on October 14th.

They warned: “In England, we are violating the number of infections and hospital admissions in the“ Reasonable Worst Case ”planning scenario, which is based on the COVID-S winter planning strategy.

"The daily death toll is now in line with the worst-case scenario, and it will almost certainly exceed that number within the next two weeks."

They added, "SPI-M-O fully agrees that the current outlook for the course of the epidemic matters unless there are widespread critical interventions or behavioral changes in the short term."

SAGE's plot of the mean R-rate in the UK, with bars representing different independent estimates

SAGE's plot of the mean R-rate in the UK, with bars representing different independent estimates

SAGE's illustration of the growth rate of Covid-19 in the regions of the NHS England. The bars represent various independent estimates, the gray shaded areas represent the combined numerical range, and the black bars are the combined range rounded to one decimal place

SAGE's illustration of the growth rate of Covid-19 in the regions of the NHS England. The bars represent various independent estimates, the gray shaded areas represent the combined numerical range, and the black bars are the combined range rounded to one decimal place

SAGE's plot of the mean R-rate in different NHS regions of England. The bars represent various independent estimates, the gray shaded areas represent the combined numerical range, and the black bars are the combined range rounded to one decimal place

SAGE's plot of the mean R-rate in different NHS regions of England. The bars represent various independent estimates, the gray shaded areas represent the combined numerical range, and the black bars are the combined range rounded to one decimal place

SAGE presents estimates of the mean R-rate for the four countries in the United Kingdom. The bars represent various independent estimates, the gray shaded areas represent the combined numerical range, and the black bars are the combined range rounded to one decimal place

SAGE presents estimates of the mean R-rate for the four countries in the United Kingdom. The bars represent various independent estimates, the gray shaded areas represent the combined numerical range, and the black bars are the combined range rounded to one decimal place

The SAGE scientists said that if the number of new infections declined in the “very near future”, the reasonable worst-case scenario “could only last three to four weeks”.

However, they warned that if the "R" rate stays above 1, the epidemic "will continue to deviate from the planning scenario."

The government-funded REACT study at Imperial College London earlier this week predicted the R-rate had risen to 1.6 across England – the highest since the initial lockdown. It added that it could be as high as 2.8 in London.

Wenn die R-Rate über 1 liegt, kann ein Ausbruch exponentiell wachsen. An R of 1.8 would mean that, on average, every 10 people infected would infect 28 other people.

Die neuesten offiziellen R-Ratenschätzungen von SAGE behaupteten, die Zahl sei gesunken und lagen sowohl national als auch in London zwischen 1,1 und 1,3.

In beiden Fällen scheint Konsens darüber zu bestehen, dass die Infektionsrate über 1 bleibt.

SAGE hatte die Regierung aufgefordert, in die Fußstapfen Deutschlands und Frankreichs zu treten, indem sie sich "für mindestens einen Monat" in eine vollständige nationale Abschaltung zurückzog, weil sie sagten, das dreistufige System sei gescheitert.

Boris Johnson und Carrie Symonds vereinen sich zum ersten gemeinsamen TV-Auftritt und loben die „absolut brillanten“ NHS-Mitarbeiter für die Rettung seines Lebens und das Mutterschaftsteam, das Sohn Wilfred zur Welt gebracht hat

Boris Johnson and his fiancée Carrie Symonds will commend NHS medics for giving birth to their son Wilfred and for saving the prime minister's life as he battled coronavirus.

Their first TV appearance together, a recording for the Pride of Britain Awards, will see them thank the frontline staff on a Sunday program for their "courage and commitment" during the pandemic.

The couple nominated nurses Jenny McGee and Luis Pitarma, two nurses who cared for Mr. Johnson at St. Thomas' Hospital in April, and the maternity team that Wilfred gave birth to later that month.

Der 30.000 Pfund teure Smaragd-Verlobungsring von Frau Symonds passt zu ihrem grünen Kleid in der Sendung, die Anfang dieser Woche bei Checkers gedreht wurde.

Frau Symonds sagt im Video: „Sie kümmern sich auch in den schwierigsten Zeiten weiterhin um uns alle, und dank Ihnen ist Boris nicht nur immer noch hier, sondern wir sind stolze Eltern unseres süßen Jungen.

"Als Familie müssen wir dem NHS so sehr dankbar sein, und wir werden nie aufhören, dankbar zu sein."

Der Premierminister fügt dann hinzu: „Genau richtig. Deshalb möchte ich mich bei dem äußerst brillanten Team des St. Thomas 'Hospital bedanken, das mir das Leben gerettet hat.

"Es gab viele von ihnen, aber ich möchte insbesondere zwei Krankenschwestern nominieren, Luis und Jenny."

Herr Johnson wurde auf der Intensivstation für Covid-19 im Londoner Krankenhaus behandelt, bevor das erste gemeinsame Kind des Paares Wochen später am University College Hospital geboren wurde.

Bei ihrem ersten gemeinsamen Fernsehauftritt am Sonntag werden Boris Johnson und seine Verlobte Carrie Symonds NHS-Mediziner dafür loben, dass sie dem Premierminister das Leben gerettet haben, als er gegen das Coronavirus gekämpft und ihren Sohn zur Welt gebracht hat

Bei ihrem ersten gemeinsamen Fernsehauftritt am Sonntag werden Boris Johnson und seine Verlobte Carrie Symonds NHS-Mediziner dafür loben, dass sie dem Premierminister das Leben gerettet haben, als er gegen das Coronavirus gekämpft und ihren Sohn zur Welt gebracht hat

Bei ihrem ersten gemeinsamen Fernsehauftritt, einer Aufnahme für die Pride of Britain Awards, werden sie den Mitarbeitern an vorderster Front in einer Sendung am Sonntag für ihren "Mut und ihr Engagement" während der Pandemie danken

Bei ihrem ersten gemeinsamen Fernsehauftritt, einer Aufnahme für die Pride of Britain Awards, werden sie den Mitarbeitern an vorderster Front in einer Sendung am Sonntag für ihren „Mut und ihr Engagement“ während der Pandemie danken

Baby Wilfred wurde am 29. April geboren, weniger als zwei Wochen nachdem Herr Johnson das Krankenhaus verlassen hatte

Baby Wilfred wurde am 29. April geboren, weniger als zwei Wochen nachdem Herr Johnson das Krankenhaus verlassen hatte

Zeitleiste: Boris 'Kampf gegen das Coronavirus

26. März: Boris Johnson gibt bekannt, dass er in einem Twitter-Video positiv auf Coronavirus getestet wurde und weiterhin in Selbstisolierung von seiner Wohnung Nummer 11 arbeitet.

2. April: Der PM kommt aus der Selbstisolation

3. April: Er fordert die Leute auf, zu Hause zu bleiben

5. April: Laut Downing Street wurde der Premierminister vorsichtshalber nach anhaltenden Symptomen in das St. Thomas 'Hospital gebracht.

6. April: Herr Johnson wird nach einer Verschlechterung seines Zustands auf die Intensivstation des Krankenhauses verlegt, benötigt jedoch keine Beatmung. Dominic Raab beginnt, die PM zu vertreten.

9. April: Er wurde von der Intensivstation auf die normale Station zurückgebracht.

11. April: Der Premierminister wurde aus dem Krankenhaus entlassen. Er dankte den NHS-Mitarbeitern für die Rettung seines Lebens in einem Video aus der Downing Street, bevor er mit seiner schwangeren Verlobten Carrie Symonds zu Checkers ging.

26. April: Herr Johnson kommt zurück in Nummer 10, als er sich darauf vorbereitet, zur Arbeit zurückzukehren.

Am 27. März gab er bekannt, dass er positiv auf das Virus getestet wurde, arbeitet jedoch weiterhin von zu Hause aus, leitet Kabinettssitzungen und veröffentlicht Veröffentlichungen in sozialen Medien.

In einer Videobotschaft auf Twitter sagte er: „Ich arbeite von zu Hause aus und bin selbstisolierend, und das ist völlig richtig.

"Aber zweifle nicht daran, dass ich dank der Zauberei der modernen Technologie weitermachen kann, um mit meinem gesamten Top-Team zu kommunizieren und den nationalen Kampf gegen das Coronavirus zu führen."

Gesundheitsminister Matt Hancock gab ebenfalls bekannt, dass er positiv auf Covid-19 getestet hatte, während der Chefarzt Chris Whitty sagte, er habe Symptome der Krankheit und sei selbstisolierend.

Einige fragten, warum der Premierminister einen Business-as-usual-Ansatz gewählt hatte, nachdem er den Rest des Vereinigten Königreichs gesperrt hatte, und Herr Johnson wurde beschuldigt, seinem eigenen Rat nicht gefolgt zu sein.

Das Unterhaus saß weiterhin zusammen, wobei in den ersten Märzwochen Kabinettssitzungen und tägliche Pressekonferenzen persönlich abgehalten wurden.

Herr Johnson wurde am 2. April persönlich gesehen, nachdem er vor die Downing Street Nr. 11 getreten war, um nach Betreuern zu klatschen.

He told those gathered outside: 'I am not allowed out really, I am just standing here.'

The next day he issued a plea for people to stay at home and save lives, as he was still suffering from a temperature.

He urged people not to break social distancing rules as the weather warmed up, even if they were going 'a bit stir crazy'.

On April 4, then-pregnant Carrie Symonds, 32, said she was 'on the mend' after suffering coronavirus symptoms herself.

Shortly after the PM's announcement on March 27, Ms Symonds – who usually lives with him in the No.11 flat – shared a photograph of herself self-isolating in Camberwell, south London, with the couple's dog Dilyn.

Just days later on April 5 Mr Johnson was admitted to hospital for tests.

On April 6 Mr Johnson tweeted: 'Last night, on the advice of my doctor, I went into hospital for some routine tests as I'm still experiencing coronavirus symptoms. I'm in good spirits and keeping in touch with my team, as we work together to fight this virus and keep everyone safe.

'I'd like to say thank you to all the brilliant NHS staff taking care of me and others in this difficult time. You are the best of Britain.

'Stay safe everyone, and please remember to stay at home to protect the NHS and save lives.'

Just hours later, Downing Street said the Prime Minister's condition had worsened and, on the advice of his medical team, he had been moved to the hospital's intensive care unit.

Ms Symonds says in the video: 'You continue to provide care for all of us in the very toughest of times and it's because of you that not only is Boris still here, but that we are proud parents to our sweet baby boy

Ms Symonds says in the video: 'You continue to provide care for all of us in the very toughest of times and it's because of you that not only is Boris still here, but that we are proud parents to our sweet baby boy

The Prime Minister then adds: 'Exactly right. So I want to pay thanks to the utterly brilliant team at St Thomas' Hospital who saved my life

The Prime Minister then adds: 'Exactly right. So I want to pay thanks to the utterly brilliant team at St Thomas' Hospital who saved my life

'There were many of them, but I want to nominate two nurses in particular, Luis and Jenny,' Mr Johnson said

'There were many of them, but I want to nominate two nurses in particular, Luis and Jenny,' Mr Johnson said

On April 7 Downing Street said the PM's condition remained 'stable' and he was in 'good spirits' following his first night in intensive care, but he would need to remain there for 'close monitoring'.

The next day the Prime Minister was said to be 'responding to treatment' after a second night in intensive care.

Downing Street said he remained in a stable condition.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak later told the daily coronavirus press briefing that Mr Johnson was still in intensive care, but had been sitting up in bed and engaging with his clinical team.

On April 9, the Prime Minister was moved out of intensive care and went into a normal ward.

He was discharged two days later on April 11 and thanked NHS staff for saving his life in a video recorded from Downing Street before heading to Chequers with his then-pregnant fiancée Carrie Symonds.

He returned to Number 10 on April 26 and Ms Symonds gave birth in London on April 30, with the Prime Minister at her side.

In a heart-warming Instagram post revealing the boy's name, Ms Symonds revealed that the middle name Nicholas was a tribute to two NHS doctors, Dr Nick Price and Professor Nick Hart, who  'saved Boris' life.'

Dr Nick Price

Professor Nick Hart

In a heart-warming Instagram post revealing the boy's name, Ms Symonds revealed that the middle name Nicholas was a tribute to two NHS doctors, Dr Nick Price (left) and Professor Nick Hart (right), who 'saved Boris' life'

Among the first to send their wellwishes following the announcement were the two medics who said they were 'honoured and humbled' to serve as the inspiration for the newborn's middle name Nicholas.

They said in a statement: 'Our warm congratulations go to the Prime Minister and Carrie Symonds on the happy arrival of their beautiful son Wilfred.

'We are honoured and humbled to have been recognised in this way, and we give our thanks to the incredible team of professionals who we work with at Guy's at St Thomas' and who ensure every patient receives the best care.

'We wish the new family every health and happiness.'

The first name is a tribute to Mr Johnson's paternal grandfather, Osman Wilfred Kemal, and Lawrie a reference to Ms Symonds' grandfather.

Accompanying the caption was a photograph in which the first-time mother was seen tightly cradling her son, who sported an extraordinary full head of hair not dissimilar to that of his father.

Mr Johnson was treated in intensive care for Covid-19 in the London hospital, before the couple's first child together was born at University College Hospital weeks later

Mr Johnson was treated in intensive care for Covid-19 in the London hospital, before the couple's first child together was born at University College Hospital weeks later

The 32-year-old fiancee of Mr Johnson, who said 'my heart is full' in the caption, also revealed for the first time that Wilfred had been born at the maternity wing of the NHS's University College Hospital in central London.

The caption read: 'Introducing Wilfred Lawrie Nicholas born on 29.04.20 at 9am. Wilfred after Boris' grandfather Lawrie after my grandfather Nicholas after Dr Nick Price and Dr Nick Hart – the two doctors that saved Boris' life last month.

'Thank you so, so much to the incredible NHS maternity team at UCLH that looked after us so well. I couldn't be happier. My heart is full.'

It was also revealed that Boris Johnson received a congratulatory phone call from the Duke of Cambridge on Friday afternoon, with a record of their conversation recorded as an official event in the Court Circular.

Among the first to send their well-wishes following the announcement were Dr Nick Price and Prof Nick Hart, who said they were 'honoured and humbled' to serve as the inspiration for the newborn's middle name Nicholas.

They said in a statement: 'Our warm congratulations go to the Prime Minister and Carrie Symonds on the happy arrival of their beautiful son Wilfred.

'We are honoured and humbled to have been recognised in this way, and we give our thanks to the incredible team of professionals who we work with at Guy's at St Thomas' and who ensure every patient receives the best care.

'We wish the new family every health and happiness.'

There was also a message of congratulations from the University College Hospital, where Wilfred was born.

UCLH chief executive Professor Marcel Levi said: 'Congratulations to Carrie Symonds and Prime Minister Boris Johnson on the birth of their son. We wish them every happiness at this special time.

'I would like to thank the teams who cared for Carrie and her baby.

'They are an incredibly skilled, dedicated and compassionate group of professionals who put patients at the heart of everything they do.

'I am very proud of them and all our staff at UCLH who are working extremely hard in very difficult circumstances at the moment.'

Elsewhere in the Sunday broadcast, the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge will present a special recognition award to NHS staff.

What is the infection rate in YOUR city? The interactive module shows how fast the outbreaks of Covid-19 are increasing across England as official data shows cases in Hull, Derby and Somerset are increasing fastest

By Vanessa Chalmers, health reporter at MailOnline

According to official data that MailOnline has turned into an interactive tool to show how quickly cases are occurring in your city, Covid-19 outbreaks are growing fastest in Hull, Derby and Bath.

Hull and Derby saw their coronavirus epidemics almost double in the seven-day period ending October 25. The 7-day infection rate rose to 279 and 329 cases per 100,000 people, respectively.

Both cities, along with the rest of Staffordshire and Derbyshire, will move from Tier 1 to Tier 2 from Saturday to curb the surge in infections. This was announced yesterday as England moved one step closer to full national lockdown.

However, most of the authorities where epidemics have increased the most are still in the first stage, where only the 6pm and 10pm curfew only applies. Scientists have argued that these rules are not strict enough to reduce the outbreak. Top government advisors warn that current growth is "very bleak".

For example, North Somerset and Bath, as well as North East Somerset, where cases rose 83 percent and 70 percent in a week, respectively, need to face even tighter anti-virus restrictions. Despite the warnings, the coronavirus crisis is "accelerating" in the south of the country.

Public Health England's weekly surveillance report found that only 20 of the 150 authorities in England saw a decrease in infections last week, including Nottingham, where cases have decreased by 30 percent. Despite the city's shrinking outbreak, it will be placed under the toughest Tier 3 restrictions starting tomorrow along with the rest of the county.

And the data provided more evidence that the toughest lockdown measures work. Liverpool, Knowsley, Sefton and St. Helens are all seeing drops in their weekly coronavirus infection rates. The entire Merseyside area has been closed since October 14th.

It suggests that the brutal restrictions prohibiting people from being in contact with anyone outside of their own household, and imposing the closure of many pubs, bars, and in some cases gyms, are starting to work. However, scientists say that the real effects of the measure only become clear after a few weeks.

Boris Johnson is again being pressured by his doctors to impose a nationwide shutdown before and after Christmas so families can gather together over the holidays. Dominic Raab hinted today that No10 could introduce a new set of even stricter Tier 4 restrictions and declined to rule out a national lockdown.

Percentage change in coronavirus cases across England for the week ended October 25: The five local authorities that have seen the highest increase in infection rates are: Kingston upon Hull City, 92.81 percent; Derby, 91.84 percent; North Somerset, 82.99 percent; Medway, 77.17 percent; and Bath and North East Somerset 69.72 percent

Percentage change in coronavirus cases across England for the week ended October 25: The five local authorities that have seen the highest increase in infection rates are: Kingston upon Hull City, 92.81 percent; Derby, 91.84 percent; North Somerset, 82.99 percent; Medway, 77.17 percent; and Bath and North East Somerset 69.72 percent

It was announced yesterday that another 16 authorities will be drawn into the second stage from Saturday. Some of them were among the 20 places where the outbreaks have worsened significantly, according to Public Health England (PHE) data.

PHE data is based on the number of positive smears in the week of October 19-25. The new infections can be divided by the population size for each area to get a fall rate per 100,000 people. This allows numbers to be compared accurately between different areas.

For example, in Kingston upon Hull, 279 new cases per 100,000 people were diagnosed over that seven day period. The week before it was 145, which corresponds to an increase of 93 percent.

Similarly, the infection rate in Derby City rose 92 percent from 171 to 328 cases per 100,000. This suggests that the outbreak is doubling every seven days in these locations.

However, more tests may have been requested in both areas to help contain the virus. So if you just look at growth, you may not get the full picture. Health Department statistics according to which puncture tests carried out by local authorities are only valid until October 21, which means it is impossible to say exactly how much the numbers were skewed by smears over those fortnight.

Earlier this week, Derby's health director Dr. Robyn Dewis is urging all of the city's 259,000 residents to adhere to Tier 2 restrictions.

The council was waiting to be promoted to the higher level, which the ministers confirmed last night. Amber Valley, Bolsover, Derbyshire Dales, Derby City, South Derbyshire and the entire High Peak will move to the second stage starting Saturday.

Dr. Dewis told MailOnline: “I never look forward to asking our residents to put restrictions on their daily lives, but I feel it is imperative that we take action to reduce the spread of the virus.

“We have seen rapid growth across the city, with all stations affected. What is important is that we are now seeing a significant increase in those over 60 who are infected. & # 39;

Outbreaks also increased sharply in North Somerset (83 percent more) and Bath and North East Somerset (70 percent more).

However, their infection rates of 130.2 and 191 are currently well below the UK average (230 per 100,000). This could explain why they are staying on medium Tier 1 alert.

Matt Lenny, director of public health at North Somerset Council, said in a statement: “Analysis of the latest case data also shows that there is no clear pattern of infection in local communities.

& # 39; The case data shows us that the virus is widespread in our community and we are only seeing higher rates of infection in younger people.

“I urge every North Somerset resident to make the right decisions as they go about their daily lives.

“We're at a critical point as cases are increasing and people are mingling and spending more time indoors. We should all pretend we already have the virus and change our behavior to reduce the spread. & # 39;

While locations in Somerset in England are not considered Covid-19 hotspots, they can if action is not taken sooner rather than later to slow the spread of growth.

Where has the infection rate increased the most?

Kingston upon Hull, town with 92.81%

Derby 91.84%

North Somerset 82.99%

Medway 77.17%

Bath and North East Somerset 69.72%

South Gloucestershire 62.13%

Herefordshire, county of 58.10%

Derbyshire 57.98%

Stoke-on-Trent 56.79%

Lincolnshire 55.26%

Staffordshire 55.21%

Leicestershire 54.29%

Southampton 54.02%

Brighton and Hove 52.57%

Milton Keynes 50.88%

Swindon 49.99%

East Riding of Yorkshire 49.32%

Dudley 49.07%

West Sussex 46.89%

Leicester 46.57%

Where has the infection rate increased the least?

Nottingham -30.00%

Liverpool -20.98%

York -20.25%

Windsor and Maidenhead -20.09%

Knowsley -18.18%

County Durham -15.51%

Sefton -12.54%

Rutland -11.63%

Devonian -11.12%

Camden -10.03%

Halton -7.95%

South Tyneside -5.35%

Hackney and City of London -4.60%

Richmond upon Thames -3.96%

St. Helens -3.80%

Hartlepool -3.68%

Slough -3.02%

Sheffield -2.46%

Leeds -1.22%

Newcastle upon Tyne -0.42%

Experts have previously said that the rate at which an outbreak is growing – rather than its current size – is the most important factor when considering the severity of the situation in a given area.

Ministers are expected to analyze a "basket" of indicators to help make decisions about Covid-19 restrictions, including the rate of infection, hospital admissions and the rate of growth.

In South Gloucestershire in the southwest and Herefordshire in the West Midlands, outbreaks also increased rapidly by around 60 percent in a week. However, their infection rates are also below the national average and are currently 192 and 86, respectively.

The figures show that the "second wave" is now affecting every corner of England, not just the north.

Scientists warned this week that infections are "getting faster" in the south.

A worrying government-funded study by Imperial College London found the outbreak appears to be fastest in London and the south-west, where the rules are comparatively lax, and slowest in the northern regions with the most stringent restrictions.

They predicted that the R-rate – the average number of people infected by each carrier – is also higher than two in the Southeast, East, and Southwest, which have mostly escaped tough local lockdowns.

But the R-rate in the capital is three higher than anywhere else in England. For comparison, the experts stated that the national R-rate is 1.6. Cases double every three days compared to every nine days in the rest of England, the study said.

The PHE data shows that only 20 out of 149 councils saw their Covid-19 infection rates decline in the week leading up to October 25. For comparison: 23 recorded a decline the week before.

In some major cities, infection rates fell in the week leading up to October 25th. These include Nottingham (minus 30 percent), Liverpool (minus 21 percent), Sheffield (minus 2.46 percent) and Leeds (minus 1.22 percent). .

Even so, Nottingham and Leeds will come under tier three restrictions this weekend. And there is no clear path for Liverpool and Sheffield to get out of their local "locks".

Liverpool and the rest of Merseyside, including Halton, Knowsley, Sefton, St. Helens and Wirral, jumped straight into the third tier when the tiered system went into effect on October 14th. In all of these places, infection rates have dropped in the past week, with the exception of Wirral, where cases only rose 6 percent.

A number of locations under Tier Two have also seen decreases in infection rates, including York (20 percent), South Tyneside (5 percent), and Newcastle upon Tyne (a slight minus 0.42 percent).

Parts of London – Camden (down 10 percent), Hackney and City of London (down 4.60 percent), and Richmond upon Thames (down 3.96 percent) – also saw improvements in infection rates. These areas have some of the highest infection rates in London, suggesting residents may have controlled the coronavirus.

Londoners are currently banned from meeting anyone indoors with whom they do not live together.

However, London Mayor Sadiq Khan is putting pressure on number 10 to move the city to Stage Three, although infection rates vary across 32 different boroughs – from 223 positive tests per 100,000 residents in Ealing in the last week to 103 per 100,000 in Lewisham.

Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and a member of Independent Sage, said: “Unfortunately we have allowed the infection to get out of hand and as a result we have to change this around or it will just keep going rise, more will become seriously ill and more people will die.

“The sooner we impose stricter restrictions, the better. I see MPs say, "The rates in my region are low so we shouldn't do anything". It's not about whether the fall is low, it's about whether they are increasing rapidly.

“We saw very clearly in March that it is better sooner than later. We really should be doing this now, we really have no time to waste. & # 39;

However, Professor McKee stressed that with stricter restrictions, three essential things are required – curbing indoor social mixing, where the virus can easily spread, mental health support, and a functioning testing and tracking system. At the moment, the British NHS Test and Trace does not achieve the promised status of "world hit".

Professor McKee added, “As long as infections are increasing, we have a big problem. Simply because of the nature of exponential growth. It's a simple nature of math. Even if the infections increase only slightly, the rate of growth increases faster.

“On the other hand, if we can take really tough measures to keep people from mingling with one another, there can be a sharp decline in a relatively short period of time.

Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, said: “The Tier One restrictions are clearly not working to suppress the epidemic. I suspect the government would decide to increase in most regions of the country and move into stage two at least next month. And some of the current tier two will switch to tier three.

“The interesting thing is that things don't go as fast in the northern cities as they used to be. And in some of these cities like Liverpool it already seems to be in a bit of a decline.

“I think it's a little too early to say if these Level 2 / Tier 3 levels aren't working. The bottom line is that the higher restrictions might work, but it's too early to be sure.

“In the rural areas of the southern small town, many of the current increases are currently taking place. It is very obvious that the cases in the south are now increasing. Almost everywhere in between is on the rise.

"The question is, when do they decide that this is no longer acceptable or tolerable and then increase the restrictions in those areas."

Simon Clarke, Associate Professor of Cell Microbiology at the University of Reading, said, “Are local restrictions sufficient? They should be, but the problem is not tier two to three as much as one to two. We know in certain parts of the country that this is not happening quickly enough.

“My gut feeling is that we are heading for tightening restrictions by the New Year. I think it will be something like tier three or maybe closer. I think we're going to add a level 4. But it's just a guess. & # 39;

HOW HAVE THE INFECTION RATES CHANGED IN YOUR AREA?
Name of the local authority September 21-27 September 28th to October 4th change October 5th to 11th change October 12th to 18th change October 19-25 change
Bark and Dagenham 62 63.41 39.18% 98.17 54.82% 119.3 21.52% 131.51 10.23%
Barnet 43.2 86.39 267.77% 110.64 28.07% 114.68 3.65% 140.7 22.69%
Barnsley 76.56 148.66 336.85% 279.91 88.29% 457.33 63.38% 499.06 9.12%
Bath and North East Somerset 37.25 67.78 367.77% 120.03 77.09% 112.79 -6.03% 191.43 69.72%
Bedford 47.9 74.44 138.90% 81.37 9.31% 87.14 7.09% 88.29 1.32%
Bexley 28.19 56.39 141.40% 66.05 17.13% 82.97 25.62% 113.58 36.89%
Birmingham 147.92 159.31 28.64% 190.92 19.84% 227.36 19.09% 257.75 13.37%
Blackburn with Darwen 182.37 257.86 30.41% 446.24 73.06% 576.5 29.19% 774.24 34.30%
Blackpool 91.79 197.21 169.60% 288.28 46.18% 424.54 47.27% 425.97 0.34%
Bolton 244.13 265 9.80% 335.25 26.51% 442.01 31.84% 546.34 23.60%
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole 25.55 74.12 252.95% 134.57 81.56% 144.44 7.33% 184.91 28.02%
Bracknell Forest 25.3 40.8 212.40% 53.04 30.00% 81.6 53.85% 84.86 4.00%
Bradford 184.34 293.27 98.37% 335.14 14.28% 395.72 18.08% 481.13 21.58%
Brent 50.64 79.45 181.74% 99.16 24.81% 98.55 -0.62% 113.41 15.08%
Brighton and Hove 21.66 62.22 448.68% 82.51 32.61% 93.51 13.33% 142.67 52.57%
Bristol, city of 28.27 66.47 275.54% 156.46 135.38% 245.37 56.83% 333.64 35.97%
Bromley 27.68 55.67 242.58% 70.11 25.94% 89.97 28.33% 108.93 21.07%
Buckinghamshire 24.82 48.35 182.75% 88.98 84.03% 86.77 -2.48% 104.6 20.55%
To bury 216.24 290.59 52.89% 389.55 34.05% 430.39 10.48% 526.21 22.26%
Calderdale 97.42 173.56 135.27% 242.6 39.78% 311.65 28.46% 410.49 31.72%
Cambridgeshire 06/18 45.29 355.18% 65.34 44.27% 67.48 3.28% 82.17 21.77%
Camden 27.4 55.55 138.11% 111.84 101.33% 121.84 8.94% 109.62 -10.03%
Central Bedfordshire 23.56 37.76 67.67% 51.27 35.78% 61.67 20.28% 71.37 15.73%
Cheshire East 61.17 141.35 287.90% 168.68 19.33% 173.11 2.63% 215.8 24.66%
Cheshire West and Chester 78.12 143.7 220.12% 191.21 33.06% 199.08 4.12% 214.53 7.76%
Cornwall and Isles of Scilly 40.4 26.58 32.17% 32 20.39% 30.78 -3.81% 44.95 46.04%
County Durham 110.55 201.29 209.30% 338.05 67.94% 329.56 -2.51% 278.44 -15.51%
Coventry 74.56 108.2 95.13% 166.34 53.73% 184.11 10.68% 199.99 8.63%
Croydon 32.58 66.46 307.98% 75.25 13.23% 79.39 5.50% 105.76 33.22%
Cumbria 51.2 86.6 252.03% 121.6 40.42% 152.4 25.33% 170.2 11.68%
Darlington 103.93 176.03 358.53% 206.92 17.55% 286.51 38.46% 296.81 3.59%
Derby 43.14 82.78 124.21% 134.08 61.97% 171.39 27.83% 328.8 91.84%
Derbyshire 44.35 93.44 201.23% 144.51 54.66% 186.5 29.06% 294.63 57.98%
Devon 18.82 84.37 957.27% 105.69 25.27% 78.52 -25.71% 69.79 -11.12%
Doncaster 62.84 147.81 177.73% 220.27 49.02% 350.76 59.24% 513.64 46.44%
Dorset 11.36 25.1 352.25% 60.76 142.07% 72.39 19.14% 103.3 42.70%
Dudley 56.28 79.29 90.28% 102.3 29.02% 150.81 47.42% 224.82 49.07%
Ealing 55.29 98.01 248.91% 139.85 42.69% 162.08 15.90% 212.4 31.05%
East Riding of Yorkshire 49.83 109.33 372.06% 133.36 21.98% 172.35 29.24% 257.35 49.32%
East Sussex 14.72 30.51 359.49% 44.86 47.03% 50.43 12.42% 58.32 15.65%
Enfield 42.54 72.8 158.52% 93.77 28.80% 137.21 46.33% 138.41 0.87%
Essex 26.66 48.35 176.92% 69.97 44.72% 90.25 28.98% 99.05 9.75%
Gateshead 162.33 241.02 83.08% 255.38 5.96% 259.34 1.55% 355.84 37.21%
Gloucestershire 19.62 40.5 200.00% 62 53.09% 62.63 1.02% 68.6 9.53%
Greenwich 36.47 50.7 217.27% 75.36 48.64% 85.43 13.36% 92.73 8.55%
Hackney and City of London 55.36 101.77 311.03% 132.37 30.07% 164.35 24.16% 156.79 -4.60%
Wait 265.82 343.1 80.49% 387.91 13.06% 340 -12.35% 312.96 -7.95%
Hammersmith and Fulham 45.91 75.08 238.96% 115.59 53.96% 163.12 41.12% 190.12 16.55%
Hampshire 16.78 08/35 219.20% 55.48 58.15% 68.35 23.20% 94.32 38.00%
Haringey 40.95 89.34 192.73% 116.88 30.83% 126.93 8.60% 142.57 12.32%
Harrow 42.2 95.95 244.28% 116.26 21.17% 127.81 9.93% 133.78 4.67%
Hartlepool 153.74 250.9 213.35% 274.39 9.36% 348.06 26.85% 335.24 -3.68%
Havering 58.18 60.49 80.46% 100.56 66.24% 126.76 26.05% 148.72 17.32%
Herefordshire, county 12.97 22.3 152.83% 37.86 69.78% 54.46 43.85% 86.1 58.10%
Hertfordshire 30.94 66.83 166.79% 87.35 30.70% 90.79 3.94% 106.68 17.50%
Hillingdon 57.35 75.28 117.95% 102.32 35.92% 135.24 32.17% 160 18.31%
Hounslow 57.82 81.39 166.24% 105.7 29.87% 139.21 31.70% 177.15 27.25%
Isle of Wight 11.29 12.7 259.77% 17.63 38.82% 24.69 40.05% 04/31 25.72%
Islington 42,89 76.3 198.40% 90.32 18.37% 121.25 34.24% 126.62 4.43%
Kensington and Chelsea 24.34 81.34 262.80% 94.15 15.75% 135.14 43.54% 138.99 2.85%
Kent 16.44 34.46 240.51% 50.46 46.43% 54.25 7.51% 75.24 38.69%
Kingston upon Hull, city of 35.41 95.85 555.16% 107.01 11.64% 144.74 35.26% 279.08 92.81%
Kingston upon Thames 33.24 72.11 255.57% 101.97 41.41% 144.78 41.98% 184.22 27.24%
Kirklees 118.92 192.37 106.85% 254.44 32.27% 300.37 18.05% 388.82 29.45%
Knowsley 335.41 602.54 182.30% 700.64 16.28% 663.52 -5.30% 542.88 -18.18%
Lambeth 41.71 77.6 272.00% 92.94 19.77% 122.38 31.68% 137.1 12.03%
Lancashire 160.6 246.02 139.88% 347.6 41.29% 387.44 11.46% 426.22 10.01%
Leeds 170.46 379.13 239.39% 394.63 4.09% 393.5 -0.29% 388.71 -1.22%
Leicester 111.51 140.31 23.94% 184.06 31.18% 222.46 20.86% 326.06 46.57%
Leicestershire 51.12 92.19 124.47% 161.58 75.27% 176.87 9.46% 272.89 54.29%
Lewisham 34 64.09 206.21% 77.16 20.39% 79.13 2.55% 90.57 14.46%
Lincolnshire 27.85 63.19 238.82% 92.61 46.56% 103.65 11.92% 160.93 55.26%
Liverpool 342.94 580.27 186.43% 681.47 17.44% 584.69 -14.20% 462.01 -20.98%
Luton 61.96 72.28 41.28% 89.65 24.03% 141.28 57.59% 150.2 6.31%
Manchester 307.67 558.19 215.22% 474.62 -14.97% 438.99 -7.51% 486.2 10.75%
Medway 17:59 30.87 177.36% 38.77 25.59% 45.59 17.59% 80.77 77.17%
Merton 26.63 47.93 266.72% 77.95 62.63% 95.38 22.36% 134.11 40.61%
Middlesbrough 136.19 259.61 375.30% 280.89 8.20% 351.82 25.25% 353.95 0.61%
Milton Keynes 24.86 45.28 139.20% 65.69 45.08% 63.46 -3.39% 95.75 50.88%
Newcastle upon Tyne 299.19 492.37 204.91% 466.94 -5.16% 313.39 -32.88% 312.07 -0.42%
Newham 66.26 75.04 100.75% 103.36 37.74% 129.41 25.20% 142.16 9.85%
Norfolk 17.3 38.01 228.52% 50.89 33.89% 63.89 25.55% 84.71 32.59%
North East Lincolnshire 35.1 76.46 481.00% 162.32 112.29% 237.52 46.33% 339.68 43.01%
North Lincolnshire 47.59 94.03 224.02% 151.49 61.11% 170.06 12.26% 191.54 12.63%
North Somerset 27.9 39.99 56.33% 54.87 37.21% 71.15 29.67% 130.2 82.99%
North Tyneside 156.32 232.31 137.93% 251.55 8.28% 210.67 -16.25% 279.44 32.64%
North Yorkshire 67.47 113.1 188.82% 134.29 18.74% 141.09 5.06% 164.39 16.51%
Northamptonshire 24.43 60.14 198.02% 96.25 60.04% 107.53 11.72% 127.31 18.39%
Northumberland 171.2 180.19 114.38% 175.54 -2.58% 176.47 0.53% 179.88 1.93%
Nottingham 94.32 609.79 1523.94% 927.91 52.17% 610.69 -34.19% 427.46 -30.00%
Nottinghamshire 49.74 137.04 387.17% 220.47 60.88% 272.27 23.50% 325.03 19.38%
Oldham 193.58 295.64 62.27% 382.52 29.39% 468.56 22.49% 661.72 41.22%
Oxfordshire 25.59 64.48 309.14% 86.31 33.86% 89.35 3.52% 111.9 25.24%
Peterborough 35.1 62.3 223.13% 81.58 30.95% 95.92 17.58% 125.09 30.41%
Plymouth 23.27 37.77 80.03% 68.68 81.84% 103.01 49.99% 141.55 37.41%
Portsmouth 32.11 50.72 194.54% 104.7 106.43% 144.25 37.77% 163.79 13.55%
read 29.67 43.89 343.78% 74.79 70.40% 95.81 28.11% 109.41 14.19%
Redbridge 73.06 110.74 78.84% 125.15 13.01% 136.95 9.43% 168.4 22.96%
Redcar and Cleveland 70.73 173.53 395.80% 210.72 21.43% 280.71 33.21% 323 15.07%
Richmond upon Thames 39.39 108.58 593.36% 144.94 33.49% 153.02 5.57% 146.96 -3.96%
Rochdale 202.78 335.41 126.06% 429.83 28.15% 508.97 18.41% 574.16 12.81%
Rotherham 100.98 203.08 228.66% 279.57 37.66% 386.19 38.14% 493.2 27.71%
Rutland 42.58 85.16 580.19% 132.74 55.87% 107.7 -18.86% 95.17 -11.63%
Salford 195.49 317.19 114.36% 390.21 23.02% 495.3 26.93% 588.79 18.88%
Sandwell 113.26 114.78 19.67% 146.45 27.59% 216.17 47.61% 275.23 27.32%
Sefton 226.84 371.19 194.83% 477.19 28.56% 438.48 -8.11% 383.49 -12.54%
Sheffield 121.74 385.74 519.76% 455.16 18.00% 431.05 -5.30% 420.45 -2.46%
Shropshire 42.4 59.11 193.79% 86.34 46.07% 84.48 -2.15% 119.45 41.39%
swamp 82.92 86.93 217.03% 92.28 6.15% 155.14 68.12% 150.46 -3.02%
Solihull 90.12 119.7 61.87% 174.7 45.95% 209.36 19.84% 223.69 6.84%
Somerset 13.87 32.9 362.73% 39.13 18.94% 45.89 17.28% 61.36 33.71%
South Gloucestershire 24.2 58.58 255.25% 88.04 50.29% 118.56 34.67% 192.22 62.13%
South Tyneside 221.89 274.88 37.42% 245.07 -10.84% 235.14 -4.05% 222.55 -5.35%
Southampton 19.01 42.77 199.93% 60.19 40.73% 74.05 23.03% 114.05 54.02%
Southend-on-Sea 31.13 42.59 143.79% 48.05 12.82% 68.81 43.20% 82.46 19.84%
Southwark 47.99 60.53 114.42% 79.35 31.09% 95.66 20.55% 121.69 27.21%
St. Helens 254.17 347.76 167.24% 443.56 27.55% 437.47 -1.37% 420.85 -3.80%
Staffordshire 38.66 82.2 173.82% 121.2 47.45% 169.06 39.49% 262.4 55.21%
Stockport 110.42 227.32 162.62% 297.18 30.73% 299.91 0.92% 396.02 32.05%
Stockton-on-Teas 100.84 233.6 339.02% 342.54 46.64% 357.24 4.29% 447.43 25.25%
Stoke-on-Trent 49.54 60.46 54.99% 118.19 95.48% 192.3 62.70% 301.51 56.79%
Suffolk 8.41 33.49 298.22% 46.37 38.46% 55.03 18.68% 72.63 31.98%
Sunderland 215.7 296.72 108.61% 299.24 0.85% 321.92 7.58% 323.72 0.56%
Surrey 08/27 66.29 350.65% 83.01 25.22% 94.8 14.20% 106.58 12.43%
Sutton 23.75 36,83 162,14% 81.9 122,37% 90.14 10,06% 114,85 27,41%
Swindon 19.35 27.9 181,82% 45,46 62,94% 69,31 52,46% 103,96 49.99%
Tameside 174.4 245,48 74,84% 322,75 31,48% 371,31 15,05% 513,92 38,41%
Telford und Wrekin 43,92 56.16 173,02% 81,73 45,53% 154.01 88,44% 211,28 37,19%
Thurrock 24.09 43.02 226,16% 75,14 74,66% 122,17 62,59% 157,74 29,12%
Torbay 14.68 49.9 466,40% 82.19 64,71% 100,54 22,33% 126,23 25.55%
Turm Weiler 62,51 85,61 164,80% 97,92 14,38% 133,64 36,48% 148,73 11,29%
Trafford 139,88 279,75 277,28% 336,63 20,33% 327,36 -2,75% 429,74 31,27%
Wakefield 86,13 163,93 243,96% 238,87 45,71% 310,64 30,05% 401.08 29,11%
Walsall 83,37 122,25 81,76% 168,84 38,11% 211,57 25,31% 305.8 44,54%
Waltham Forest 47.3 79,43 147,21% 94,95 19,54% 102,53 7,98% 135,75 32,40%
Wandsworth 37,92 71,89 243,48% 101,31 40,92% 114,35 12,87% 143,78 25,74%
Warrington 197,61 268,55 102,15% 337.6 25,71% 348,55 3,24% 406,64 16,67%
Warwickshire 40,49 70,94 98,05% 101.05 42,44% 126,14 24,83% 166,63 32,10%
West Berkshire 22.72 39.13 181,92% 49,23 25,81% 57,43 16,66% 83,94 46,16%
West Sussex 21.64 33.1 148,69% 43.06 30,09% 50,35 16,93% 73,96 46,89%
Westminster 29.08 71,18 220,63% 88.02 23,66% 108.3 23,04% 135.08 24,73%
Wigan 160.04 274,45 124,39% 407,71 48,56% 460,66 12,99% 655,99 42,40%
Wiltshire 15.2 32.8 221,57% 53.8 64,02% 68 26,39% 84.2 23,82%
Windsor und Maidenhead 31.7 80,57 335,75% 113,59 40,98% 141,33 24,42% 112,93 -20,09%
Wirral 193,82 252,77 61,86% 315,42 24,79% 267,27 -15,27% 282,71 5,78%
Wokingham 28,64 45 327,76% 61.36 36,36% 76,55 24,76% 95,26 24,44%
Wolverhampton 83.16 75,94 21,21% 133,66 76,01% 191 42,90% 246,43 29.02%
Worcestershire 43.47 70,83 232,22% 93,15 31,51% 105,24 12,98% 128.4 22,01%
York 72,64 195,14 341,89% 266,36 36,50% 307,19 15,33% 244,99 -20,25%

Tägliche Covid-19-Fälle stiegen letzte Woche in England um 50% und 1 von 100 Menschen wurde vor einer Woche infiziert, schätzt ONS – aber der Ausbruch einer separaten Studie behauptet, der Ausbruch sei "stetig".

Von Sam Blanchard, Senior Health Reporter bei MailOnline

Die täglichen Coronavirus-Infektionen in England stiegen letzte Woche um 50 Prozent, da laut einer von der Regierung durchgeführten Überwachungsstudie täglich fast 52.000 Menschen an dem Virus erkrankten.

Daten des Amtes für nationale Statistiken warnten, dass einer von 100 Menschen im Land vor einer Woche mit Covid-19 infiziert war, was die Agentur dazu veranlasste, zu sagen, dass die Fälle "stark zunehmen". Schätzungen, die heute veröffentlicht wurden, haben gezeigt, dass sich die Zahl der Menschen, die sich mit dem Virus infizieren, innerhalb von 14 Tagen fast verdoppelt hat und in dem am 23. Oktober endenden siebentägigen Zeitraum mehr als 568.000 Menschen gleichzeitig infiziert waren.

Der Bericht prognostizierte, dass in England letzte Woche täglich 51.900 Menschen Covid-19 gefangen haben, gegenüber 35.200 pro Tag in der Woche zuvor und 27.900 in der Woche zuvor.

ONS-Experten warnten, dass die Zahl der Infektionen weiter zunimmt, und fügten hinzu: In den letzten zwei Wochen gab es in allen Altersgruppen ein Wachstum. ältere Teenager und junge Erwachsene weisen weiterhin die höchsten aktuellen Raten auf, während die Raten bei Sekundarschulkindern anscheinend stark ansteigen. & # 39;

Andere Forscher am King's College London sagten jedoch voraus, dass in England täglich rund 32.000 neue symptomatische Fälle auftreten, und behaupteten, dass die Infektionen "stetig" zunehmen und "nicht außer Kontrolle geraten". Professor Tim Spector, der Epidemiologe hinter der Studie des Königs, sagte, die Verbreitung von Covid-19 sei derzeit "stetig" und könnte sich in Schottland sogar verlangsamen. Das Team schätzte, dass sich die Fälle in Großbritannien einmal im Monat verdoppeln.

SAGE-Aktualisierungen der geschätzten Reproduktionsrate (R) des Coronavirus zeigten heute, dass das R seit letzter Woche in Großbritannien und England von einem möglichen Bereich von 1,2-1,4 auf 1,1-1,3 gefallen zu sein scheint. Das projizierte R – von dem bekannt ist, dass es auf Daten basiert, die zwei bis drei Wochen alt sind – fiel in drei Regionen, blieb in drei Regionen stabil und stieg nur in einer – den Midlands. Trotz des Hoffnungsschimmers sagte das Beratungsgremium von No10, es sei "fast sicher, dass die Epidemie im ganzen Land weiterhin rasant zunimmt".

Die Aktualisierungen kommen nach einer schockierenden Massenteststudie, die gestern veröffentlicht wurde und schätzungsweise 96.000 Menschen jeden Tag am 25. Oktober in England an der Krankheit erkrankte. Akademiker des Imperial College London – deren Projektion auf Tausenden von zufälligen Testergebnissen beruhte – warnten, dass die R-Rate in London sogar bis zu drei betragen könnte.

Dieser Bericht, der Boris Johnson noch mehr unter Druck setzte, Maßnahmen zu ergreifen, um eine weitere ausgewachsene Krise zu vermeiden, ging mit einer widersprüchlichen Prognose einher, die die Zahl auf 56.000 näherte und Verwirrung darüber auslöste, wie schwer die zweite Welle Großbritanniens tatsächlich ist. Tests des Gesundheitsministeriums haben in der letzten Woche durchschnittlich nur 22.125 Fälle pro Tag festgestellt, wobei gestern 23.065 diagnostiziert wurden.

Looking back at the number of people dying can also give an idea of ​​how far Covid-19 is spreading. Government officials estimate that 0.5 percent of coronavirus patients die, suggesting an average of 154 people died per week by October 23, which was the result of 31,000 new daily infections earlier in the month.

Professor Spector said King's college team, working with health tech company ZOE, wanted to "reassure" people that the situation didn't seem as bad as "other polls" suggested .

Laut SAGE ist die Reproduktionsrate in Großbritannien – die durchschnittliche Anzahl der mit Covid-19 infizierten Patienten – in der zweiten Woche in Folge auf 1,1 bis 1,3 gesunken. Dies bleibt jedoch weiterhin über 1, was darauf hinweist, dass der Ausbruch des Landes immer noch zunimmt.

In other coronavirus news:

Data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) estimated that nearly 52,000 people contracted the virus every day, and one in 100 people in the country was infected with Covid-19 a week ago

Data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) estimated that nearly 52,000 people contracted the virus every day, and one in 100 people in the country was infected with Covid-19 a week ago

Katherine Kent, co-head of analysis for the ONS's Covid-19 infection survey, said: 'Following the expansion of ONS infection survey, we are now seeing evidence of increases in Covid-19 infections across the UK.

'In England, infections have continued to rise steeply, with increases in all regions apart from in the North East, where infections appear to have now levelled off.

'Wales and Northern Ireland have also all seen increased infections, though it is currently too early to see a certain trend in Scotland, where we have been testing for a shorter period.

'When looking at infections across different age groups, rates now seem to be steeply increasing among secondary school children whilst older teenagers and young adults continue to have the highest levels of infection.'

The ONS report, which is considered the most accurate way of estimating the true size of England's Covid-19 outbreak, said the North of England remains worst-hit but infections appeared to have 'levelled off' in the North East.

In the North West, the report estimated, one in every 43 people was carrying the virus last week – a positivity rate of 2.3 per cent.

In Yorkshire & Humber this was 1.9 per cent – one in 53 people – and in the North East it was 1.2 per cent – one in every 83.

In the East and West Midlands the positive test rate was one per cent – the same as the England average – while the other regions had rates lower than one, with 0.8 per cent in London and 0.5 in the East, South East and South West.

The report said: 'Looking at trends over time, there has been growth in positivity in most regions of England over the last two weeks. Rates continue to increase steeply in the North West and Yorkshire and The Humber.

'Positivity rates in the North East have levelled off in recent weeks but remain above the England average. Previously, positivity rates in the South West were level, however, the rates appear to be increasing. But as the rates remain low, caution should be taken when interpreting whether rates are increasing in the South West.'

It also pointed out that there remain differences in case rates between age groups, and that young people continue to drive the outbreak, with infections rising 'steeply' among teenagers.

The rate of infection appeared to surge from one per cent to 1.5 per cent – equal to a rise from one in 100 people to one in 67 – between October 12 and October 23, which was a bigger rise than in any other age group.

The number of people diagnosed with the disease has risen to a current daily average of 22,125 since early September.

However, testing only captures a fraction of the actual number of infections because many people are not tested, do not get sick with the virus, or get a false negative result.

So studies by scientists and mathematicians are the most accurate pictures of how many people are really infected with coronavirus, whether it makes them sick or not.

The King's study is based on around one million people with the Covid Symptom Study app reporting whether they feel ill and confirming test results when they have them.

It estimates there are 43,569 new infections per day in the UK in the community, and 34,628 in England. Two-thirds of infections are estimated to be occurring in the North and the Midlands.

19 NHS trusts are already treating more Covid-19 patients than in April and admissions are rising by a third a week

Almost 20 NHS trusts in England are already treating more coronavirus patients than at the peak of the first wave, according to official statistics that come amid warnings hospitals across the country could run out of beds before Christmas.

MailOnline's analysis of official NHS figures reveals 19 trusts are treating higher numbers of Covid-19 patients than at the first peak.

Doncaster and Bassetlaw Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust has three times as many infected patients on its wards now compared to April 12 – England's busiest day in the pandemic. Just 67 beds were occupied by people with the disease then, compared to 201 on October 27, the most recent snapshot published by the NHS.

At Blackpool Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, 196 of its beds were taken up by Covid-19 patients on October 27. It marked a 68 per cent jump compared to levels on April 12, when doctors there were treating 117 infected people.

There are 104 coronavirus sufferers currently being treated in Barnsley Hospital NHS Foundation Trust in South Yorkshire, according to the most recent snapshot from NHS England. This is compared to 63 six months ago, marking a rise of almost two-thirds.

East Lancashire Hospitals NHS Trust currently has 170 people with Covid-19 on its ward compared to 122 in spring, a rise of nearly 40 per cent. A similar story has played out at Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, where patient levels have risen from 210 to 289 (38 per cent).

Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust has 450 virus patients getting care in its Merseyside hospitals, up more than 30 cent on the 346 patients being treated for the disease on April 12. Warrington and Halton Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust has seen the same rate of increase, going from 98 to 128.

Wrightington, Wigan and Leigh NHS Foundation Trust, North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Foundation Trust and Bradford Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust are seeing more than 20 per cent more patients now than in April.

Meanwhile, in Tier Two lockdown areas there have been similar surges in the number of beds occupied by Covid-19 sufferers. Hull University Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, in East Yorkshire, has 54 infected patients, up from 44 six months ago, a rise of 23 per cent.

University Hospitals of North Midlands NHS Trust has 171 infected people on its wards, up more than a quarter from April 12, when there were 124.

Torbay and South Devon NHS Foundation Trust in the South West has technically seen a surge of 44 per cent, though it has far fewer beds than some of the bigger trusts in major cities. As of yesterday it was treating 33 Covid-19 patients compared to 23 on April 12.

The headline estimate is based on the average number of daily infections over the fortnight ending October 25.

Imperial College London's government-funded study, REACT-1, estimated yesterday that there were 96,000 new infections per day. This study is also based on mass population tests and used 85,000 tests between October 16 and October 25.

A "nowcast" study by Cambridge University researchers yesterday put a figure of 55,600 a day based on the number of people dying from the disease and data showing how much people travel and interact.

Professor Tim Spector, who runs the King's College project, hinted that the highest estimate from the REACT study was over the top.

He said today: 'While cases are still rising across the UK, we want to reassure people that cases have not spiralled out of control, as has been recently reported from other surveys.

& # 39; We're still seeing a steady increase at the national level, doubling every four weeks with the possible exception of Scotland showing signs of slowing.

& # 39; With a million people reporting weekly, we have the largest national survey and our estimates are in line with the ONS survey.

'Data on Covid-19 can be confusing for the public and we can't rely simply on confirmed cases or daily deaths, without putting them into context.

“Hospital admissions are increasing as expected, but deaths are still average for the season. As we become citizen scientists it's important to look at multiple sources to get a broader view.'

Looking back on the numbers of people dying of Covid-19, which is what Cambridge's Nowcast is based on, can give a reliable estimate of infections but there are lags in the data because it usually takes more than two weeks for someone to die after catching Covid-19.

Officials believe that around 0.5 percent of people who contract coronavirus die from it – one in 200 people who become infected.

The average of 154 people who died every day in the UK for the week leading up to October 23 – the latest reliable data – suggests that 31,000 people were infected every day two to three weeks earlier.

However, this may not take into account the age differences in people who contract the virus. The infection fatality rate is much lower in young people because the disease preys on the elderly.

Britain's second wave was triggered by the virus spreading among teenagers and people in their 20s in early September, when universities and schools went back, and those groups are far less likely to die, meaning there may be a higher ratio of infections to deaths and the 31,000-per-day could be an underestimate.

Data in the Covid Symptom Study estimated that the North West and North East and Yorkshire accounted for half of all new infections per day in England at 8,725 and 8,446 per day, respectively.

Another 7,404 of the daily infections occurred in the Midlands, followed by 4,977 per day in London. The lowest were the east of England at 2,278 per day and the south west at 2,607.

In Scotland, 4,674 new cases were reported per day in Scotland, followed by 3,397 in Wales and 1,230 in Northern Ireland.

SAGE on Friday  estimated Britain's R rate had fallen for the second week in a row, to between 1.1 and 1.3, in a clear sign the second wave continues to lose steam.

For comparison, the rate was placed between 1.2 and 1.4 in last Friday's report, and the week before it was between 1.3 and 1.5.

But it still remains above one – meaning the number of infections is still growing in the country.

The advisory panel predicted growth may be fastest in the South West, alongside the East of England, Midlands and South East, amid mounting evidence that the virus is no longer just causing havoc in the North. They also revealed infections may be spreading the slowest in the North West, where millions are living under the harshest Tier Three restrictions.

Data from King's College London's Covid Symptom Study app shows coronavirus cases in the UK have surged to more than 40,000 a day after a summer hiatus, but the team behind it claims they are "not getting out of hand are".

Data from King's College London's Covid Symptom Study app shows coronavirus cases in the UK have surged to more than 40,000 a day after a summer hiatus, but the team behind it claims they are "not getting out of hand are".

The north of England and the Midlands remain hardest hit by Covid-19, the King & # 39; s team predicts. Per-person infection rates are also high in Scotland, Wales, London and the university towns of southern England, including Bristol, Bournemouth, Exeter and Brighton

The north of England and the Midlands remain hardest hit by Covid-19, the King & # 39; s team predicts. Per-person infection rates are also high in Scotland, Wales, London and the university towns of southern England, including Bristol, Bournemouth, Exeter and Brighton

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