Coronavirus cases in the UK have peaked on a Saturday at 6,042 in 24 hours and 34 deaths in 24 hours. According to an infectious disease expert, the UK is two to three weeks away from recording 100 deaths a day.
Today's Saturday record brings the total death toll to 429,277, despite millions of Britons going undiagnosed during the first wave of the pandemic as the government struggled to get the tests under control. According to top experts, at the height of the pandemic, more than 100,000 people were infected with the virus every day.
The 6,042 cases in the past 24 hours represent an increase from 2,000 cases last Saturday when 4,422 people were diagnosed with the disease. Another 6,874 infections were registered yesterday. Data shows that the 7-day rolling average of daily cases in one week has increased 54 percent.
Infections were squeezed well below 1,000 from late June to early August following the spring lockdown, but Covid-19 cases have been on the rise since then.
The death toll now stands at 41,971, and government statistics show the death toll is rising in line with the infections that began to rise earlier this month. An average of 30 Britons succumb to the disease every day, 11 more than last week. It had dropped to a low of seven in early September.
Infectious disease modeling expert Professor Graham Medley, who is a member of the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE), warns that "inevitable" deaths will hit triple digits as the virus remains "dangerous" to the community.
The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine professor said if the UK starts recording 10,000 cases per day and the disease death rate stays at 1 percent, deaths will hit 100 per day.
At the height of the pandemic between April 2 and April 18, the UK was recording more than 800 deaths per day and around 4,000 positive cases per day. However, testing capacity lagged far behind demand, meaning the vast majority of cases were missed, tightening the mortality rate calculation. The World Health Organization says the death rate from coronavirus is between 0.5 and one percent based on available data.
Almost a quarter of the UK population will live under tightened coronavirus restrictions after Leeds, Wigan, Stockport and Blackpool in England and Llanelli, Cardiff and Swansea in Wales were blacklisted in the UK.
It comes like in other coronavirus news:
- Anti-lockdown protesters clash with police in Trafalgar Square, London, as 15,000 are found to be in favor of the march.
- The first Welsh minister has already advised the nation to act as if the restrictions were in place – including a ban on traveling outside of the designated area without a "reasonable apology";
- Sadiq Khan calls for stricter coronavirus measures in London, warning that the capital could go the same route as Birmingham, the northwest and the northeast, unless action is taken now.
- Unions are calling for face-to-face classes to be interrupted as 3,000 students are banned from their halls for two weeks.
- A newlywed reception party in Swansea is stormed by police after dozens of guests crowd into the enclosed space.
The UK's coronavirus R rate could now be up to 1.5, government scientific advisors warned on Friday after spikes across all regions of the country
Office workers "wear masks in corridors, elevators and common areas"
Health chiefs have been reported to be considering plans to introduce face masks in offices.
The stricter measures would mean that employees do not have to wear a mask when sitting, but have to wear one in corridors, elevators or common rooms.
The rules will be part of a broader crackdown on indoor workspaces, with data from Public Health England showing 18 percent of the 729 respiratory disease outbreaks recorded in the week ended September 13th. They also show that only five percent occurred in grocery stores, 45 percent percent in nursing homes and 21 percent in schools.
A minister told the Daily Express: “The rules are expanding. We have to accept that this will be a new way of life that will be around for a while and that we will get used to.
"The fines send a strong, clear message about how to behave."
Further restrictions are expected to be rolled out across the country in the coming weeks if the 6pm and 10pm curfew does not reduce the number of newly reported cases.
Local authorities have already started banning mixing in other households and there is increasing demand for this measure to be rolled out across the UK amid fears that lessons will still be learned from March.
As part of the Today program, Professor Medley said the way the virus is transmitted "will be different" although treatments have improved.
“Well, whether there are that many – in February and March we essentially assumed that one percent of infections would lead to death. Even if that's 0.8 percent, which I think would be a huge hit in terms of treatment, it still means the death toll will increase, "he said.
“With the number of 10,000 (cases) we're seeing now, that means that in three or four weeks we'll be seeing 100 deaths a day.
“To prevent this process from picking up again, we need to ensure that the transfer is interrupted now as this doubling time continues. The things we are doing now won't stop 100 people from dying every day, but they will keep them from going much higher. & # 39;
The UK outbreak initially focused on 20- to 40-year-olds, according to official figures, but has since spread to older populations who are at higher risk for the disease.
It shows that SAGE scientists advising the government on coronavirus were considering a plan to urge everyone over 45 to protect themselves.
It has been suggested that people over 45 were at higher risk for the virus and were more likely to die from it, so they could be "segmented" by the rest of the population. The proposal, revealed in publications by SAGE, was ultimately discouraged as it was considered unlikely to be successful.
However, it is still under review and the news about it follows a similar option worked out by officials to target those potentially over-50 with another lockdown.
The minutes of the 48th meeting of SAGE scientists on July 23 state: "Although children under 45 are at lower risk from Covid-19, including a lower risk of death, they are nonetheless at some risk and long-term consequences ( Consequences) are not well understood. & # 39;
The document adds: “Around two-thirds of people in the UK live in households with one or more people aged 45 and over. Segmentation based on this age threshold would therefore affect most households. "
The “segmentation” examined would have affected people over the age of 45, which at the beginning of the pandemic meant staying at home and avoiding unnecessary contact with others.
Another 6,874 Covid-19 cases were recorded yesterday, meaning the seven-day moving average is 54 percent higher than a week ago. The MailOnline analysis shows that this is the sixth day in a row on which the average has increased compared to the previous week
Another 6,874 Covid-19 cases were recorded on Friday, meaning the seven-day moving average is 54 percent higher than a week ago. The MailOnline analysis shows that this is the sixth day in a row on which the average has increased compared to the previous week
WHAT ARE THE SYMPTOMS OF LONG COVID AND HOW BAD IS THE PROBLEM?
Covid-19 is described as a short-term illness caused by infection with the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. Public health officials tend to say that people will recover within two weeks or so.
However, it is becoming increasingly clear that this is not the case for everyone and that the two week period is only the "acute illness" phase.
The North Bristol NHS Trust's Discover project, which is studying the longer-term effects of coronavirus, is just one of a handful of studies that has shown the long-term effects of Covid-19. However, only hospital patients were examined.
A total of 163 patients with coronavirus were recruited for the study. Nineteen of them died. The rest were invited for a three-month investigation and 110 took part.
Most (74 percent) had at least one persistent symptom after twelve weeks. The most common were:
- Excessive fatigue: 39%
- Shortness of breath: 39%
- Insomnia: 24%
- Muscle pain: 23%
- Chest pain: 13%
- Cough: 12%
- Odor loss: 12%
- Headache, fever, joint pain and diarrhea: Less than 10% each
Patients who had had more severe Covid-19 reported more symptoms at their follow-up visit.
Other long-term symptoms reported by Covid-19 survivors, both suspected and confirmed, anecdotal, include:
- Hearing problems
- & # 39; Brain Fog & # 39;
- Memory loss
- A lack of focus
- Mental problems
- Hair loss
The effects of Long Covid on people with mild illnesses have not yet been thoroughly studied.
Data from King's College London's symptom tracking app shows that up to 500,000 people in the UK are currently suffering from the long-term effects of Covid-19.
According to Long Covid Support Group founder Claire Hastie, the persistent effects of Covid-19 had her confined to a wheelchair after being diagnosed in March.
A recent survey found that a third of UK doctors have treated patients with long-term Covid-19 symptoms such as chronic fatigue and anosmia.
The July 16 minutes indicate that there is likely “merit” to segment society by age, particularly “for vulnerable people and those who are likely to have more contact with vulnerable people”.
It goes on: “Data shows that people tend to have more contact with other people their age, but also a significant number of contacts with people who are 20 to 30 years older and younger than themselves (probably mainly contacts between parents and Children). .
"There is also considerable contact between grandparents and children."
Figures show that children and people under the age of 45 are at a far lower risk of dying from coronavirus than children over the age of 75.
Data from the Office for National Statistics shows that only four Covid-19 deaths have been recorded among children aged 1 to 14 in England and Wales, less than 0.01 percent of the total. And 574 were registered among the 15 to 44 year olds, or 0.96 percent of the total.
In comparison, 39,058 people aged 75 and over have died from the virus, which is 65 percent of the total.
The difference led to a scientific article published in Nature in July, which concluded that people aged 80 and over are more than a hundred times more likely to die from the virus than people under 40.
However, despite the gap in death risk, there have been warnings about long Covid or where symptoms will persist after the disease has resolved, which could already affect more than 60,000 people in the UK.
On Wednesday, MPs called on the government to look into the problem and admit that it exists. They said they heard moving statements from those who had recovered but still suffered from fatigue, palpitations and difficulty breathing.
Layla Moran, Chair of the All Party Group (APPG) on coronavirus, said Westminster needed to allocate more resources to investigate and resolve the issue.
She wrote in the British Medical Journal that the situation becomes "more urgent" as the number of people who suffer from long-term Covid increases.
“In August, we heard from people living with long-term Covid, and hundreds more suffered accepted written evidence for our investigation.
& # 39; Your testimonials have been incredibly moving and worrying. It was clear that we had to make some urgent recommendations to the Prime Minister; The health, wellbeing, and employment regulations for those living with Long Covid are not taken into account.
"And as the number of people with long Covid increases, the situation becomes more urgent."
One of the victims was Claire Hastie, the founder of the Long Covid Support Group on Facebook.
She described how she used to drive 13 miles to work but has been unable to walk 13 meters since being diagnosed with Covid-19 in March and is now largely confined to a wheelchair, which her children use for much of their care.
Dr. Jake Suett, an anesthesiologist and intensive care doctor who also suffers from long-term Covid, said he has not been able to work a 12-hour shift in the intensive care unit since the disease began.
"And now a flight of stairs or the grocery store is about what I can do before I have to stop … When I'm on my feet, shortness of breath comes back, chest pain comes back."
SAGE protocols have also revealed that the group has been considering a "segmentation and protection strategy" that locks down vulnerable parts of society to avoid an increase in deaths from the disease.
According to SAGE, up to two-thirds of the UK live in mixed-age households, making the plan unusable. Above are students who spent an evening in Birmingham yesterday
SAGE was considering a plan to ask people over the age of 45 to shield themselves while the rest of the population kept moving. It is constantly checked. (Picture from a picture agency)
The daughter was stuck in Wales after flying 9,500 miles from Australia to be at the bed of the dying father
Pearl Findlay-James with her father Patrick James
A daughter is stranded in Wales due to coronavirus restrictions after flying 9,500 miles from Australia to say goodbye to her father.
Pearl Findlay-James was allowed to leave Victoria State for compassionate reasons and be at her father's bed in Pembroke Dock in West Wales, but cannot come home now.
She had already paid for a ticket to Melbourne for AUS $ 8,900 (£ 5,000), but had to pay an additional AUS $ 4,000 (£ 2,200) for a new ticket to Sydney after the flight was canceled. She will have to spend an additional AUS $ 3,000 (£ 1,600) on quarantine measures when she eventually returns home.
Her father Patrick James died four days after arriving in the UK.
“My whole family is in Australia. My husband, my children and my 10 grandchildren. It's time to go home, ”she said.
“The UK is going into the second wave and I am concerned that it will be even more difficult to get home.
“I was kidding my daughters – you'd better get ready to cook the Christmas turkey because I don't know if I'll be there.
“I can take to my grave that I sat and held my father while he went to God.
"Nobody can ever take that away from me, no matter how my journey is now."
The strategy introduced to the group by Professor Mark Whoolhouse of the University of Edinburgh would use an algorithm to identify those most at risk, taking into account their age, ethnicity and health status.
They would be locked out with a designated caregiver where they would be trusted to avoid high risk places and interactions. This would allow parts of society such as healthy and working age to continue contributing to the economy.
However, SAGE has not indicated that the government is pursuing this strategy on the basis of ethical concerns. Professor Woolhouse wrote: “Segmentation and protection raise ethical issues as some measures target sub-groups of the population.
“However, the lockdown also raises ethical issues, as the benefits are mostly perceived by the same populations. It must be understood that there are no easy options. & # 39;
After seven more local lockdowns were announced yesterday in the northwest and south Wales, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said it was in response to the "acceleration" of Covid-19 across the country.
"Working with our science and public health experts and local leaders, we stand ready to take swift and decisive action to reduce virus transmission and protect communities," he said. "I recognize the stress and impact of these additional measures on our daily lives, but we must act together and quickly to fight infection."
Matt Hancock said the strict lockdown measures are in line with those in Leicester, where they have successfully suppressed spikes in some cases, and in the West Midlands.
"This is going to be difficult news for people in these areas who profoundly affect their daily lives," he said. "These decisions are not taken lightly, and such measures are no longer reviewed and implemented longer than necessary."
The tightened restrictions occur after an increase in cases in the areas. The latest seven-day Covid-19 rate in Leeds was 113.3 per 100,000 residents, according to government data, while Leeds Health Director Victoria Eaton said a positive test rate of 8.4 percent.
The 7-day moving average in Blackpool rose from 48.8 per 100,000 a week ago to 69.6 per 100,000 on Friday, the government's coronavirus dashboard shows. In Wigan, the rate has increased to 122.6 per 100,000 people, while in Stockport it has increased to 77.4 per 100,000 people.
On Thursday, Cardiff Council Chairman Huw Thomas said the capital had seen 38.2 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people in the past five days. Swansea's rate is 49.8.
In the past seven days, Cardiff's positivity rate has reached 3.8 percent, exceeding the Welsh government's amber threshold of 2.5 percent – part of the traffic light roadmap strategy to fight the pandemic.
Leeds City Council chair Judith Blake said there was "a lot of confusion" and "ambiguity" this morning as the draconian rules took effect in the city.
She told BBC Breakfast: “We know that the restrictions don't just work on their own, but must be part of a whole series of actions in the city.
“The important message that we know from other areas is that there is a lot of confusion and ambiguity, especially in areas where there are different rules in one district and the neighboring district has another. This has to be a wake up call for people.
“If things go on as they are, I can't see how the government won't be forced to take more action that will have more impact on our lives, on our ability to go out and do the things we do need to do to keep the economy going. & # 39;
LEEDS: Revelers crowded into bars, pubs and restaurants as the number there, according to the numbers, rises to 113.3 per 100,000
LEEDS: Two women enjoy an evening on the town before restrictions are imposed that prohibit household mixing
BLACKPOOL: A group of friends enjoy a night before further restrictions to contain cases as they arise
Leeds' director of public health, Ms. Eaton, told reporters last night that the spread of the virus in the city is "very dynamic" and that "it is clear that we have very widespread community transmission" .
& # 39; We have high rates in some of our student areas that we've been increasing recently. It's clearly not just a problem for student areas, "she said before warning incidents started surfacing in all age groups and compliance with self-isolation rules was low."
Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford has urged the people of Cardiff to act as if the new restrictions are in place, even though they won't take effect until Sunday evening.
He told LBC that police enforcement is the last resort, adding, “If there are people who are clearly deliberately breaking the law, you need to enforce it.
& # 39; Yes, with fines if necessary. But for us it is the last resort, not the first resort. In Caerphilly (the first area in Wales to be closed) we worked very, very well together. My experience is that people want to do the right thing.
The country's health minister, Vaughan Gething, warned the spiraling infections were akin to late February, when "we stopped large chunks of NHS activity about two weeks later."
He added: “We have seen a sharp increase in cases in all areas where we comply with local restrictions and this is caused by contact with households indoors so more people should go in and mingle in this budget bubble.
"That has expanded to include licensed premises where people don't follow the rules."
The latest data for Cardiff on the government's dashboard shows the 7-day moving average of cases rose from 11.6 a week ago to 21.9 per 100,000 on September 18. And in Swansea, they more than tripled from 6.4 per 100,000 on September 11 to 19.4 a week later.
Public Health England data shows that only a handful of London's 32 boroughs have sustained increases in infections – including Redbridge, Hounslow, Barking, and Dagenham and Enfield. The data is due to be updated on Friday but does give an indication of which districts are struggling the most
Blackpool has been exempt from the restrictions imposed in the rest of Lancashire to date, and the seaside resort has now been adapted to its neighbors.
Blackpool South Conservative MP Scott Benton said the area initially avoided restrictions as its infection rate was 23 cases per 100,000. However, by Wednesday this had risen to 63 cases per 100,000, which is still below the average for the whole of Lancashire, but represents a significant increase.
Mr Benton said on Facebook: “The spike in cases is particularly high in areas north of Blackpool and there is evidence that this is due to intra-community transmission rather than tourism (which explains why our local infection rate has remained low compared to other areas in the northwest, although visitors come here all summer).
& # 39; It is important that we take sensible steps now to reduce the transfer rate, which is why these new restrictions are being applied.
"Nobody wants a second full lockdown and this idea behind these new rules is to slow the spread of Covid-19 so we don't end up in a position where a full lockdown needs to be considered."
Wigan reportedly put restrictions on after they were first eased on Aug. 26 as case numbers rise again. Stockport also sees restrictions after a ban on mixing in each other's households was lifted on Sept. 2.
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