The UK recorded an additional 13,430 coronavirus infections and 603 deaths today as the second wave of the disease continues to subside.
Health Department statistics show that Covid cases today were slightly higher than the 11,299 published last Monday, which was considered a slip because they were unusually low. The UK outbreak has been shrinking for more than a fortnight because the lockdown thwarted the virus.
The death toll has only just started to decrease as there may be a delay between patients who become infected and become seriously ill. Another 603 laboratory-confirmed coronavirus deaths were confirmed today, a slight decrease from 608 last week.
Separate government data – which deals with the time of death rather than the time it was recorded – shows that deaths began to decline after November 21.
Slightly older statistics – including both suspected and laboratory confirmed deaths – show that the curve is slowing down. A weekly report from the Office of National Statistics found that 2,697 people died from Covid-19 in the week ending November 20, up from 2,466 the week before.
That was an increase of just nine percent after a 27 percent increase the week before when they rose from 1,937, and a 53 percent increase in mid-October after the second wave got out of hand. The slowdown rate shows that the UK's worst second wave is already over and deaths could have peaked and are now falling again.
The death toll will continue to rise as the number of new infections remains high – the daily average of positive tests for the UK as a whole is currently 14,778 – and a top statistician warned that the second wave death toll is on the Will be way to reach 20,000 by Christmas.
Health Department data for England suggests that deaths in the second wave of coronavirus peaked in the third week of November and may now be declining
Based on today's ONS data, Cambridge University statistician Professor David Spiegelhalter pointed out that Covid-19 kills more than eight times as many people as flu and pneumonia.
While there were 280 deaths from flu or pneumonia in the week leading up to November 13, there were 2,361 deaths from Covid-19, according to the ONS report. The death toll involving Covid-19 was 2,697 while that of the flu was 2,605.
He added: “Between September 5 and November 20, the UK recorded 12,907 deaths with Covid and since then there have been approximately 3,000 for a total of 16,000 in the second wave.
& # 39; Unfortunately, the prediction that the second wave would include tens of thousands of Covid deaths seems to be fulfilled, and we can assume that that second wave total will climb to over 20,000 by Christmas.
& # 39; Once again, there were over 1,000 additional deaths in private homes compared to the normal case, an increase of 40 percent.
"This seems like a long-term change in the way people die in this country and deserves special attention."
Although non-Covid deaths are still below average – possibly because many people who would have died from other diseases were killed by the coronavirus – there were still thousands of deaths this year, and they rose again during the second wave.
There were 1,001 more than average deaths in private homes in the week leading up to November 20, 999 in hospitals and 180 in nursing homes.
For the year since March, there have been a total of 34,663 deaths in private households and 25,428 in nursing homes, while in that period there have been 7,460 fewer than normal deaths in hospitals.
The number of deaths in nursing homes, where people are most susceptible to Covid-19, rose in November, more than doubling in 14 days between the beginning and the middle of the month.
Data shows that 467 nursing home residents died of the disease in the third week of the month, up from 425 the week before, 280 the week before, and 168 the last week of October.
By November, the UK care home death toll had remained relatively low during the second wave. In the eight weeks of September and October, the weekly death toll was at or below 150 per week.
The numbers pale compared to up to 2,800 a week during the epidemic's first peak in April.
For the week ending November 13, a total of 2,697 coronavirus deaths were recorded, 231 more than the week before, and more than a fifth (21.5 percent) of the 12,535 all-cause deaths that week.
Although the week's Covid deaths are the highest number since the week ending May 15, the smaller increase suggests the number will soon peak and then fall again.
The ONS figures show that the increase in deaths slowed in late October, after rising sharply after a massive surge in infections in September when schools and universities returned.
It is known that it takes about three weeks for the number of positive tests to translate into deaths.
According to the ONS, deaths rose 53 percent in the week ending October 16, 46 percent the following week, then 41 percent, 40 percent, 27 percent, and most recently 9 percent.
Every region of England except for one region – the east of England – saw an increase in deaths from Covid-19.
The northwest had 629, the highest, followed by 481 in Yorkshire and Humber, 306 in the West Midlands, and 289 in the East Midlands.
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