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The SAGE scientist says lockdown is on LAX and the public is not taking the Covid rules seriously


Doctors in overstretched London hospitals must start "testing" coronavirus patients to decide who will receive intensive care as doctors warn that the NHS is reaching the point where it is "just unable to deal with it".

Doctors in the capital said a critical shortage of beds meant some hospitals were putting in place emergency policies to prioritize treatment for patients with the best chance of survival.

This means that younger patients who are more likely to survive are offered intensive care compared to older patients who are less likely to survive.

And ICUs on the UK frontline of Covid are "extremely concerned" that the total number of cases will continue to rise until the NHS "just can't handle it" as the UK continues to breach the lockdown.

Data shows that only 30 percent of people with Covid symptoms actually stay home and have to work, take responsibility, or buy supplies to force them out.

Intensive care adviser Professor Rupert Pearse, who works at the Royal London Hospital in the hardest-hit capital, said the British are failing to follow the rules as if they were "on the first wave" and putting enormous pressure on the already overwhelmed health care system.

Dr. Katharina Hauck of Imperial College London Medical School said: “Hospitals in London are overwhelmed, which is a dangerous situation for any patient in need of urgent care … Unfortunately, some hospitals are now forced to … follow emergency triage of all patients who need intensive care.

“The effective application of these guidelines means that patients under 65 who are not frail have priority care over the elderly and the frail. Frail patients would be cared for in a general ward with less intensive care. & # 39;

And the vice chairman of the British Medical Association's advisory committee said the recent wave of Covid infections will only get worse.

He said critical health services are "increasingly thin", up to three patients per ICU, rather than the usual standard of individual care.

Strong warnings about the risk of the new variant of Covid overwhelming the NHS are as follows:

  • Confirmed coronavirus infections hit a record high of 68,053;
  • According to an official survey, one in 15 people in the London borough of Barking and Dagenham may have the virus.
  • A new highly contagious variant now makes up 81 percent of the cases in the capital;
  • Senior officials warned of its virulence, which meant the current lockdown would likely contain the virus less effectively than the first.
  • Other hospitals canceled other treatments, even cancer operations.
  • The police were on standby to drive ambulances in London.
  • Constabularies initiated action against lockdown breakers;
  • One study suggested that the Pfizer vaccine would work against the new strain.
  • UK regulators approved a third vaccine, but it won't be available until the spring.
  • Vaccination Czar Kate Bingham promised to hit the target of vaccinating the 13 million most at risk by February 15.

A SAGE scientist has rated the current nationwide lockdown "too lax" – as an intensive care doctor warned that the daily cases "rise and rise" until the NHS can't copy if people don't follow the rules. Pictured: Overwhelmed doctors and nurses at London's University College Hospital

Allowing household contact for certain occupations - including non-essential traders or nannies - also increases the risk of the virus spreading rapidly, the professor said. Pictured: Overwhelmed doctors and nurses at London's University College Hospital

Allowing household contact for certain occupations – including non-essential traders or nannies – also increases the risk of the virus spreading rapidly, the professor said. Pictured: Overwhelmed doctors and nurses at London's University College Hospital

Professor Susan Michie, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE), said the virus thrives in cold weather and people who spend more time indoors are at increased risk of transmission

Professor Susan Michie, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE), said the virus thrives in cold weather and people who spend more time indoors are at increased risk of transmission

Medic Professor Pearse told Radio 4's Today Program, “I am very concerned that we have peaked and we are really not seeing the behavior that we saw on the first wave.

"And I and many of my medical colleagues are extremely concerned that this third wave will keep rising and rising and that we will reach a point where the NHS just can't cope with it."

Yesterday he tweeted: “Usually three intensive care advisors (senior doctors) work in our intensive care unit at the same time. Today we have ten, each leading an entire team in the intensive care unit.

& # 39; The answer is inspiring, but the need is just terrible. So please hands, face, space. Help us to help you. & # 39;

And Dr. Simon Walsh – vice chairman of the advisory committee of the British Medical Association – warned that the situation would only get worse.

The London-based ambulance said the previous wave's epidemiology showed the situation is likely to get worse over the next two to three weeks.

He told BBC Breakfast, "I'm afraid all of us who work on the front lines believe and this is based on the evidence I fear that it gets worse before it gets better."

The police will focus on enforcing the lockdown rules rather than explaining them to the public

Police are now more focused on enforcing lockdown rules than explaining to people in order to arrest the rising number of coronavirus cases across the country.

Derbyshire Police were criticized yesterday for going too far against the lockdown after officers attacked two friends for driving only seven miles to walk at a beauty spot.

As a result, the "intimidating" force is reviewing its Covid operations after gaining clarity on the rules. West Mercia police also ridiculed for threatening to fined £ 200 for playing in the snow.

Still, the message from government sources today is that the police should enforce, not explain, rules now, almost 10 months after the initial restrictions came into effect.

This was confirmed by the Wiltshire Police Chief Kier Pritchard, who wrote in the Gazette and Herald: “While we will continue to monitor the police with consent and in an appropriate manner, my officers will move on to enforcement much more quickly when confronted with people that clearly violate the rules.

So far, the police force has focused on engagement, stepping up messaging in our communities and encouraging the public to abide by it first and foremost and only reverted to enforcement when we are subjected to deliberate or repeated violations.

"We will continue to work with our communities, but my officials will quickly move on to enforce those who openly break the rules."

He said intensive care needs to be "increasingly thin", with up to three patients per ICU, rather than the usual standard of individual care.

The government needs to both step up vaccinations and ensure that healthcare workers have the appropriate PPE available to ensure they can continue to work instead of being infected by the virus.

He said: “You need to make sure that PPE supplies are there when we need them because we were disappointed in the first wave and so the government needs to restore our confidence in vaccination and ensuring that these PPE items are in place . & # 39;

SAGE scientist Professor Susan Michie warned this morning that the current nationwide lockdown was "too lax".

She said the virus thrives in cold weather and people who spend more time indoors are at increased risk of transmission.

She said having a lot of leeway for what counts as a key worker means classrooms are almost half full and public transportation is overcrowded by school pickup and drop off – in addition to rush hour for key workers.

Allowing household contact for certain occupations – including non-essential traders or nannies – also increases the risk of the virus spreading rapidly, the professor said.

Their call for a change in lockdown rules came when an intensive care doctor on the UK frontline warned Covid that he and his colleagues were "extremely concerned" that the total number of cases would continue to rise until the NHS "simply won't be able to is to deal with it ".

Boris Johnson asked families to stay home last night as the Covid-19 death toll hit a new record. The government launched a new campaign blitz to get people to abide by the lockdown rules.

UK Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty has appeared in advertisements urging the British to act like they have a coronavirus to protect the NHS and save lives.

Two terrifying new posters also show a patient dying in hospital and a health care worker wearing full PPE, warning the British, “If you go out, you can spread them. People will die. & # 39;

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has asked families to make a plea, asking them to stay home to save lives as Britain has its highest death toll since the pandemic began and the NHS launches a new advertising campaign led by Chris Whitty

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has asked families to make a plea, asking them to stay home to save lives as Britain has its highest death toll since the pandemic began and the NHS launches a new advertising campaign led by Chris Whitty

A commuter wears a face mask as he sits in a bus shelter with signs for "Stay Home, Save Lives" in central London

A commuter wears a face mask as he sits in a bus shelter with signs for "Stay Home, Save Lives" in central London

Everyone in England is told to stay home and act like you have it in a major advertising campaign. including posters (pictured) encouraging the public to control the spread of the virus, protect the NHS and save lives

Everyone in England is told to stay home and act like you have it in a major advertising campaign. including posters (pictured) encouraging the public to control the spread of the virus, protect the NHS and save lives

Younger patients are being prioritized as capital ration intensive care resources in overstretched London hospitals, doctors say

Overwhelmed London hospitals have begun "testing" coronavirus patients and rationing ICU resources.

Doctors in the capital said a critical shortage of beds meant some hospitals were putting in place emergency policies to prioritize treatment for patients with the best chance of survival.

This means that younger patients are offered intensive care compared to older people who are less likely to survive.

Dr. Katharina Hauck of Imperial College London Medical School said: “Hospitals in London are overwhelmed, which is a dangerous situation for any patient in need of urgent care … Unfortunately, some hospitals are now forced to … follow emergency triage of all patients who need intensive care.

“The effective application of these guidelines means that patients under 65 who are not frail have priority care over the elderly and the frail. Frail patients would be cared for in a general ward with less intensive care. & # 39;

Professor Michie, a professor of health psychology at University College London, told Radio 4's Today program: “If you look at the data, it shows that almost 90 percent of people mostly obey the rules, although we also see more people on road.

“I think one of the explanations for this is that this is actually a pretty loose lock because we still have a lot of household contact and people go in and out of each other's houses.

“If you're a key nurse, non-essential trader, or nanny, you have mass gatherings on religious events, open kindergartens, and, what's really important, you have this broad definition of critical worker, so we have 30 to 50 percent of that (School) classes are full right now and therefore public transport is very full with people driving to and from all of these things. & # 39;

Parents were told yesterday by the Ministry of Education to honor the spirit of lockdown and leave the children at home if possible.

She added, “It's definitely too casual because if you think about it and compare us to March, what do we have now?

“We have the winter season and the virus survives longer in the cold. Plus, people spend more time indoors. We know that indoor aerosol transmission is a very large source of transmission for this virus.

'And second, we have this new variant that is 50 to 70 percent more contagious. You put those two things together. Alongside the NHS crisis, we should have a stricter lockdown, no less stringent than in March. & # 39;

Professor Michie said the government should use "more support" for people to keep the rules, as 10 days of isolation could mean someone would lose their income during that period.

She also said the government's approach to setting the rules should be "more creative and resourceful" and use famous public figures to get the message across.

Professor Michie added, “What we know from this pandemic is what really motivates people to know that there is a really serious threat, to know that what they are doing can and also to know what they do to protect other people and their communities.

& # 39; SAGE's Behavioral Committee consistently says what we need is more support and empowerment for people to keep themselves up, not punishment.

“For example, an area where compliance is really poor and that has been consistently needs to be isolated at home for 10 days.

“Our own data shows that only 30 percent of people with symptoms stay at home.

“The reasons given are that they may have caring responsibilities outside the home, that they may need provisions, or that they need to go to work for an income.

“To be effective, you need to have people that people trust and identify with.

“Yes, experts and academics are much more trusted than politicians, but we should also think of people from our own communities who are respected, especially young men who find compliance hardest, and think about who they identify with and respect, and this is often the case with sports personalities, singers, people from film and television.

Some schools are still more than HALF full as attendance levels are much higher than when they were first closed and key workers are urged NOT to send their children in if they can

Parents have been urged not to send their children to school if they can help after visitor numbers in some regions of England rose over 50 percent.

The current English Coronavirus Lockdown Guide will allow any child whose parents are key workers to attend school, even if their parents are working from home.

After criticism that the Department of Education's definition of key workers was too broad, the department urged parents to honor the spirit of lockdown and leave children at home whenever possible.

Those who qualify as key workers include workers essential to running the judicial system, religious workers, food production workers, charity workers, and some local government, utility, communications and finance workers.

More than one in 30 secondary school students had coronavirus on Christmas Day, the Times figures show.

Just two weeks later, every third school in the UK had more than 20 percent of its students on Wednesday.

"We should be a lot more creative and resourceful about the kind of people who speak up."

The SAGE colleague Dr. Adam Kucharski said the new variant of coronavirus should be treated as a "new pandemic within a pandemic," warning that the peak of Covid deaths will hit "in the next week or so".

He said the data showing the movements of people in the lockdown shows "worrying signals".

He said, “The first signs we're seeing suggest that the population is likely to be less moving than in November, but maybe a little more than in April, and that's obviously worrying because essentially every die in this new variant The interaction we have has become riskier than before.

& # 39; Even if we went back to last spring's exposure reduction, we couldn't be sure that we would see the same impact as last year due to the increased transmission.

“To some extent, we can think of this as a new pandemic within a pandemic.

& # 39; From the data published, it appears that this is a very serious threat. New data from PHE (Public Health England) released yesterday suggests the per-contact risk is likely 40 to 50 percent higher than it was.

& # 39; For both the UK and many other countries we need to get rid of this idea that we are going to see a repeat of what happened to our behavior last spring and really face the possibility that it is much riskier is and We are going to have to work a lot harder to reduce the impact. & # 39;

Last night, Mr Johnson warned that infections were growing at an alarming rate despite the new national lockdown imposed earlier in the week.

And he warned the only way to prevent thousands more deaths is to follow the rules. The Prime Minister said: “I know the past year has taken its toll.

“But your compliance is more important now than ever. I have to say one more time to everyone to stay home, protect the NHS and save lives. & # 39;

Another 1,325 Covid deaths were reported on Friday – almost one per minute – and more than the high of 1,224 in the first wave last April.

The gruesome death toll, which has doubled in a week, brings Britain to the brink of nearly 80,000.

Students at the Oasis Academy in Coulsdon are doing their own Covid tests today. The number of students in classrooms is far higher than the initial lockdown. This has led to the need to narrow down the definition of key workers and the Ministry of Education to encourage parents not to send their children to school if they can avoid it

Students at the Oasis Academy in Coulsdon are doing their own Covid tests today. The number of students in classrooms is far higher than the initial lockdown. This has led to the need to narrow down the definition of key workers and the Ministry of Education to encourage parents not to send their children to school if they can avoid it

Hundreds of cancer surgeries are canceled in London as hospitals flood with Covid patients

Hundreds of cancer surgeries in London are reportedly being canceled as the city is flooded with Covid patients.

Almost half of London's beds are occupied by the 7,200 Covid patients, as the UK had more than 68,000 new diagnoses of the virus on Friday and 1,325 more deaths – the highest number of single days to date.

Doctors and nurses in the capital are urged to work at the Excel Center Nightingale Hospital in east London to recover patients who have no longer tested positive for coronavirus.

Hospitals have also requested that medical staff take on extra shifts to help out wards that are short of staff.

With the number of virus patients on the rise, most of the “green spaces” of hospitals to be classified as Covid-Free Zones have been described as “at risk” in a leaked cancer resilience plan in NHS England, reports The Independent.

London needs to treat more than 500 cancer patients a week to stay ahead of demand. However, this week only 122 cancer cases have been treated in the capital's NHS hospitals, including 101 in private hospitals. 277 cancer patients whose procedures were delayed stayed behind, reports say.

According to the report, 3,840 patients had already waited past the 62-day target for their first cancer treatment in London.

These are priority two patients who must be treated within four weeks or who are at risk of life or loss of a limb.

A senior NHS source said: "I worry this is going to be death by default. Nobody talks about it or is honest and says what we can do and we are happy about this loss of life. It is not clear to me where the ethical considerations are being discussed.

"We have to be honest with the public and stop pretending that this is not happening."

Experts fear that the daily death toll from rocket falls and hospital stays will continue to rise, putting further pressure on Boris Johnson to speed up the sluggish vaccination program that is set to be phased out in the UK from mid-February.

Health Department figures show the UK has recorded more than 50,000 cases for 11 days in a row, with the five worst days of the pandemic all occurring since the beginning of 2021. Cases have increased nearly 30 percent from week to week.

However, a senior SAGE official warned today that the real number of Britons currently being infected daily is closer to 150,000, claiming the size of the second wave is now much worse than the first.

The source also fears England's third national lockdown won't lower the R-rate like it did in March because the country has been dealing with a contagious mutant strain and compliance with the rules has decreased.

The No. 10 Advisory Board found that the R-rate could be up to 1.4 in the seven regions of England.

In response to calls for even stricter restrictions, ministers are considering placing face masks in busy outdoor locations, such as the nightlife. B. in queues in supermarkets to make mandatory.

The powerful advertising campaign was launched on television last night and moderated by Chief Medical Officer Professor Whitty. He said while vaccines are "clear hope for the future … for now we must all stay at home".

Professor Whitty, who is the most trusted government figure on Covid, said the rapid spread of the virus has "put many people at risk for serious illnesses and puts great pressure on our NHS".

Dramatic images carry the blatant message: & # 39; Coronavirus. If you go out, you can spread it. People will die. & # 39;

Prof. Whitty says: “Covid-19, especially the new variant, is spreading rapidly across the country. This puts many people with serious illnesses at risk and puts a lot of pressure on our NHS.

“We all have to stay home one more time. When going out is important, remember to wash your hands, cover your face indoors, and keep your distance from others.

"Vaccines give clear hope for the future, but now we must all stay home, protect the NHS and save lives." The campaign also calls on people to "act as you have it" adding that "anyone can spread it".

England is currently in its toughest and longest period since last spring and may not emerge from it until all of the most vulnerable groups are vaccinated against Covid-19.

The Prime Minister has urged the Army to push vaccination rollout in the UK, which offers the only glimmer of hope that lockdowns will end. The sluggish program has been haunted by staffing and supply problems and bureaucratic obstacles that have strangled it in the early stages.

It comes from the fact that police were accused of cracking the lockdown whip too hard after a troop threatened to fined £ 200 for playing in the snow – while elsewhere officers came across two friends who were only seven Had driven miles to walk in a beauty spot.

Does Lockdown 3 work? Traffic and visitor numbers are falling to near April levels, the latest data shows

Amid clear government demands urging the British to abide by the rules, traffic and visitor numbers have dropped to near April levels, suggesting the country is compliant.

Apple Mobility Trends for London show a 44 percent decrease, a 62 percent decrease and a 68 percent decrease in transit.

According to Tom Tom, commuters drive to work in the capital during rush hour as they remain constant at just 25 percent.

Meanwhile, pictures from the subway this morning showed passengers who obeyed the rules and mostly wore their face covers.

In Surrey, public health experts are so concerned about the outbreak that vans will be deployed at beauty spots this weekend telling people to stay home.

Apple Mobility Trends shows that the number of people out and about in London has fallen back to near April levels.

Driving, walking and transit were all massive on three levels prior to the lockdown and are about to be shut down for the first time in late March.

Separate data from Tom Tom supports the numbers and shows that there are currently few Londoners out and about.

And No. 10 fears that Mr Johnson's stay at home order will be disregarded – a suspicion supported by figures from Transport for London.

The number of passengers on the metro was 18 percent yesterday, compared to just 5 percent last April. Bus utilization is 30 percent of capacity, compared to around 18 percent when the bus was first blocked.

And the volume of traffic on the main roads in the capital was 76 percent of normal compared to 30 to 40 percent nine months ago.

Parents have been urged not to send their children to school if they can help after visitor numbers in some regions of England rose over 50 percent.

Current guidance under the coronavirus lockdown in England allows any child whose parent is a key worker to attend school, even if their parents are working from home.

After criticism that the Department of Education's definition of key workers was too broad, the department urged parents to honor the spirit of lockdown and leave children at home whenever possible.

Those who qualify as key workers include workers essential to running the judicial system, religious workers, food production workers, charity workers, and some local government, utility, communications and finance workers.

More than one in 30 secondary school students had coronavirus on Christmas Day, the Times figures show.

Just two weeks later, every third school in the UK had more than 20 percent of its students on Wednesday.

Figures from teacher Tapp show that 35 percent of elementary schools had at least 20 percent of students in school and 15 percent of elementary schools had at least 30 percent.

Meanwhile, ASCL general secretary Geoff Barton said, “We hear reports that attendance at some elementary schools is exceeding 50 percent due to demand from critical workers and families with children classified as at-risk according to criteria that have been significantly expanded .

The highly infectious South African variant of Covid has not yet started in the UK – but the Kent mutation is responsible for 61% of cases, ONS data shows

The South African strain of coronavirus is not spreading quickly in the UK, No10 scientific advisors said today to allay fears about the superinfectious variant.

So far, only two people in the UK have tested positive for the mutant strain, which has faced international panic following an explosion of cases in South Africa.

British scientists were particularly concerned about the London discovery last month as Britain is already battling another highly infectious mutant variant that has emerged in Kent.

A senior SAGE expert said today there was "no evidence" of widespread community transmission of the South African variant – called 501.V2 – by the UK.

The SAGE consultant, who wanted to remain anonymous, claimed it shouldn't become the dominant version in the UK as it is only "slightly" more contagious than the Kent version and therefore has no "evolutionary advantage".

Scientists are more concerned about the South African tribe than about the Kent tribe as they have important changes to their spike protein that open the door to vaccine resistance.

"We are urgently working to clarify the maximum number of people that should be in the school."

In March, during the first lockdown, only one in 100 schools registered more than 20 percent of students attending on any given day.

Figures from the Office of National Statistics show that infections peaked a week after the semester ended, with one in 27 high school and one in 40 primary school in England.

In London, the rate was even higher, with one in 18 secondary school children and one in 23 elementary school children.

Amid clear government demands urging the British to abide by the rules, traffic and visitor numbers have dropped to near April levels, suggesting the country is compliant.

Apple Mobility Trends for London show a 44 percent decrease, a 62 percent decrease and a 68 percent decrease in transit.

According to Tom Tom, commuters drive to work in the capital during rush hour as they remain constant at just 25 percent.

Meanwhile, pictures from the subway this morning showed passengers following the rules and mostly wearing their face covers.

In Surrey, public health experts are so concerned about the outbreak that vans will be deployed at beauty spots this weekend telling people to stay home.

Apple Mobility Trends shows that the number of people out and about in London has fallen back to near April levels.

Driving, walking and transit were all massive on three levels prior to the lockdown and are about to be shut down for the first time in late March.

Separate data from Tom Tom supports the numbers and shows that there are currently few Londoners out and about.

Congestion rates have remained low over the past week, rarely exceeding 25 percent even during rush hour.

The subway is 18 percent busy, compared to 5 percent in April, but more trains are helping with social distancing. It is also important to get key workers to and from their jobs in industries such as healthcare and construction.

(tagsToTranslate) Dailymail (t) Nachrichten (t) Coronavirus (t) SAGE (t) Coronavirus Lockdowns (t) NHS