The outbreak of the British corona virus was even more deadly than the worst-case scenario of government scientists, as the secret papers released today revealed.
SAGE estimated that 50,000 people could die by September if the retention period were low. This emerges from a report submitted to ministers on March 29.
To date, the official death toll at Covid-19 is already 44,000, but separate government figures show that Britain broke the dreaded 50,000 mark a month ago.
Another scientific report submitted to ministers warned that loosening the lockout without a robust track and trace system would increase the reproductive rate above 1.
The paper was handed over to number 10 on May 27, four days before the government sent part of the workforce back to work and reopened some non-essential businesses.
In the study, SAGE wrote: "Without a highly effective system for testing, tracking and isolating, there is little leeway for easing measures without R returning over 1."
Nine documents were released today by the Government Office for Science, led by Sir Patrick Vallance, England's main scientific advisor.
They are among the dozens in a tranche of papers that have been presented to SAGE in recent months to guide ministers through the crisis.
SAGE estimated that 50,000 people could die by September if the retention period were low. This emerges from a report submitted to ministers on March 29
To date, however, the official death toll for coronaviruses in the UK is almost 44,000
The prediction of 50,000 deaths at SAGE came on March 29, five days after Britain was banned and cases doubled every two to three days.
Coronavirus deaths in the UK were 1,669 on the day of publication of the scientific paper.
Fear of a further increase in the daily death toll in the UK, Covid-19, will not decrease as quickly and the number of new coronavirus cases will increase
The British daily Covid-19 has not dropped as quickly and the number of cases has continued to increase. The numbers show that the blockage will finally be loosened tomorrow to celebrate “Super Saturday”.
More than 1,000 infected Britons died every day on the darkest days of the crisis in mid-April, but the number of victims had fallen by about 20 to 30 percent from week to week since early May.
However, Ministry of Health data shows that the rolling 7-day average of deaths in July shrank only 10 percent or less and was slightly higher on Wednesday than the week before.
According to government statistics, 110 people died last night after testing positive for Covid-19 every day this week. In comparison, the rate was just 8 percent higher last Friday at 119.
This corresponds to other official figures indicating that the outbreak of the coronavirus is stagnating, as officials estimated that around 3,500 people were infected every day in England alone yesterday.
However, the rate has barely changed since mid-June, when data reported 3,800 cases a day. The National Statistics Office (ONS) warned that the rate at which the outbreak is decreasing has "flattened".
The study states that the "reasonable worst-case scenario" requires poor compliance with blocking and social distance measures.
It was estimated that if half of the households ignored measures to stay at home and three out of ten people with symptoms ignored them, the number of cases would only increase to 50,000.
The report estimated that there would be no Covid 19 deaths by July 7 if the UK public followed the rules well.
According to SAGE, this prediction was based on 75 percent of families who keep quarantine in the home and 70 percent of self-isolating symptomatic cases.
Oxford University surveys have shown that around 70 percent of Britons followed Covid rules closely during the crisis.
The official death toll, which includes only diagnosed Covid patients, has already reached 44,000.
According to the Office of National Statistics, a non-ministerial government department, the actual mortality rate is well over 50,000.
The ONS includes deaths in which Covid is suspected. Many cases and deaths at the beginning of the crisis have been overlooked due to the lack of extensive testing.
SAGE scientists have since publicly admitted that they underestimated how many cases were imported to the UK from Europe in mid-March, which may explain the low estimate.
A separate paper presented to ministers in May warned that the R rate – the average number of people infected with a coronavirus patient – would shoot above 1 if contact tracking was not up to date.
Keeping R below 1 is critical as it prevents cases from growing exponentially and the epidemic from getting out of control.
The R-phrase paper was filed at No. 10 on May 27, four days before Boris Johnson temporarily released the ban.
SAGE warned in its recommendations that without "a highly effective system for testing, tracking, and isolating, there would be little leeway for loosening without Rt returning above 1".
Mr. Johnson seemed to heed the warning because the measures were very gradual and a limited number of unnecessary shops could be reopened so that people could exercise outdoors as long as they wanted and two people from separate households were in one Distance of two meters.
One of the other publications published today found that thorough hand washing can reduce the spread of respiratory infections by 16 percent.
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