A new interactive map shows where the next coronavirus hotspots are most likely to flare up in the next three weeks.
The Imperial College London document sheds light on areas across England and Wales where infections are on the rise.
Breckland, a local authority in Norfolk, is likely to be a high-risk area in just a fortnight, the data said.
Other areas where cases are increasing are all in the north of England, such as Bolton, Rossendale in Lancashire and Leeds in West Yorkshire.
South Tyneside in Tyne and Wear and Pendle, Lancashire – which are already seeing spikes – is expected to stay high, according to the map.
How to use the interactive map below: Press & # 39;After reading the preamble, close. Then use your cursor to zoom in or out and move the slider down to see how scientists predict Covid-19 will advance in the UK.
Professor Axel Gandy of the Imperial Institute of Mathematics said, “The model will allow us to use the trends we are seeing in these areas to project where local Covid-19 hotspots are likely to develop in England and Wales.
"Covid-19 is unfortunately still with us, but we hope this will be a useful tool for local and national governments trying to get hotspots under control."
Imperial researchers said they "define a local authority as a hotspot when weekly reported cases per 100,000 population exceed 50".
The team used data on daily reported cases, weekly reported deaths, and mathematical models to determine the likelihood that a local authority would become a hotspot in the following week.
The website also provides estimates for each local authority in England and Wales as to whether cases are likely to increase or decrease in the following week.
Britain recorded an additional 17 coronavirus deaths in the preliminary census on Thursday
The predictions assume that current interventions – such as closings and school closings – in a local authority will not change beyond those taken about a week before the end of the observations.
The team notes that an increase in cases in a local authority may be due to an increase in testing that the model does not currently account for.
The model also assumes that all people in the individual municipalities are equally likely to be infected, so that demographic factors such as the age structure of the population are not taken into account.
Dr. Swapnil Mishra of the MRC Center for Global Infectious Disease Analysis added, “We provide weekly forecasts on the development of Covid-19 at the community level in England and Wales.
'Our model helps identify hotspots – likely local problem areas. We hope that our estimates will enable rapid action at the local level to control the spread of the epidemic. & # 39;
It's likely that Pendle and Bolton will remain hotspots for the next two weeks, according to the Imperial College London model. Researchers led by Professor Axel Gandy today published a website estimating the likelihood of a location in England with current Covid-19 cases being destroyed based on current data
In the week between September 6 and September 12, the areas highlighted in red will likely become Covid-19 hotspots, with more than 50 cases per 100,000. All affected areas are recorded. Red has a probability of 75 to 100 percent, dark orange has a probability of 50 to 75 percent, and light orange has a probability of 25 to 50 percent
From September 13-19, there could be dozens more areas that are hotspots, including South Tyneside (97 percent), Rossendale (90 percent), Leeds (85 percent), Corby (81 percent), and Breckland (81 percent) Cent ). All affected areas are recorded
The team behind the website defines a hotspot as a local authority that has more than 50 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 residents per week.
Pendle, Bolton, Corby, and Oldham currently fit into this category. But over the next two weeks, dozens more appear to be joining the list while others are falling.
Where are England's 20 Covis-19 hotspots?
Local authorities new cases in the seven days ending August 30 at the rate of per 100,000 people.
- Pendulum 74.9
- Bolton 69.6
- Rossendale 65.8
- Oldham 63.3
- Corby 54.0
- Bradford 52.6
- Blackburn with Darwen 49.4
- South Tyneside 46.4
- Rochdale 44.1
- Manchester 42.7
- Tameside 39.3
- Trafford 38.8
- Salford 37.9
- Great Yarmouth 35.2
- Burnley 9/34
- Preston 33.5
- Leeds 32.5
- Kettering 32.4
- Breckland 31.4
- Birmingham 02/30
Imperial reports the percent probability that a local authority will become a hotspot – 100 percent is almost certain.
South Tyneside (97 percent), Rossendale (90 percent), Leeds (85 percent), Corby (81 percent), and Breckland (81 percent) all have the highest likelihood of infections reaching infections per 100,000 people by their mid-50s by September.
However, the recently reported case numbers for Oldham show a decline, and as a result, the model shows that Oldham is unlikely to remain a hotspot until September (45 percent) after several weeks of trying to suppress outbreaks.
Various areas in the London commuter belt have a medium chance of becoming a hotspot by September 19 – the farthest point from predictions modeled by Professor Gandy and his team.
Waverley in Surrey and Hertsmere in Hertfordshire are affected at 55 percent and 61 percent with 50 per 100,000 cases, respectively. You currently have 16.6 and 29 cases per 100,000.
The UK announced 1,735 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, the biggest daily increase in three months.
The last time daily infections were higher was on June 4, when 1,805 were diagnosed with the disease and most of the strict lockdown restrictions were still in place.
The seven-day moving case average is now 1,435, up a quarter (26 percent) per week.
In Scotland, there are now new cases every day for the first time since May, with 100 injured. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced today that the country's reproductive rate could be as high as 1.4 after safely below 1 for months.
The R-rate – which is the average number of people each Covid-19 patient will infect – has to stay below one or it can spiral out of control.
For the UK as a whole, the R is believed to hover around Hazardous Zone 1 and SAGE is no longer certain that it is definitely below that number.
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