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The data forcing Boris to lock: SAGE advisors sounded the alarm two weeks ago


The government's SAGE advisers released papers last night showing how they warned ministers two weeks ago that Britain could be in a more serious situation than its "worst case scenario".

The October 14 document posted online states: "We are violating the number of infections and hospital admissions in the" Reasonable Worst Case "planning scenario, before adding that the prospects for the future spread of Covid-19 are" worrying "if no action was taken.

It has been warned that the modeling suggests that up to 74,000 people could be infected per day in England alone, well beyond the worst-case scenario.

Daily coronavirus infections in England rose by 50 percent last week, according to the separate Bureau of National Statistics (ONS). It is estimated that nearly 52,000 people contracted the virus every day, and one in 100 people in the country was infected with Covid-19 a week ago.

The worrying figures behind Prime Minister Boris Johnson's expected decision to announce a new national lockdown next week after his scientific advisors told him it was the only way to save Christmas.

The government had repeatedly insisted that it wanted to avoid another national lockdown and instead advocated an approach of local lockdowns based on regional infection, death and hospitalization rates.

But last night, a cabinet source told the Mail that the dramatic new lockdown would be announced next week. It wasn't clear what exactly it would look like, what should be closed, or how long it would take.

However, one told The Times that all but essential businesses and "educational establishments," including kindergartens, schools and universities, would be closed.

The Prime Minister will hold a press conference on Monday and the new restrictions will begin on Wednesday.

The experts estimate that there are 1,000 deaths a day in the UK within a month. An additional 274 deaths were reported yesterday, compared with 136 two weeks ago and 224 seven days ago.

There were also 24,405 new infections, which is almost a fifth more than a week ago when there were 20,530.

SAGE – the Emergency Scientific Advisory Group, made up of senior scientists and disease experts, presented its analysis to the government on October 14th.

They warned: “In England, we are violating the number of infections and hospital admissions in the“ Reasonable Worst Case ”planning scenario, which is based on the COVID-S winter planning strategy.

The government's SAGE advisers released papers last night showing how they warned ministers two weeks ago that Britain could be in a more serious situation than it is

The government's SAGE advisers released papers last night showing how they warned ministers two weeks ago that Britain could be in a more serious situation than its "worst case scenario".

"The daily death toll is now in line with the worst-case scenario, and it will almost certainly exceed that number within the next two weeks."

They added, "SPI-M-O fully agrees that the current outlook for the course of the epidemic matters, unless there are widespread critical interventions or behavioral changes in the short term."

The SAGE scientists said that if the number of new infections declined in the “very near future”, the reasonable worst-case scenario “could only last three to four weeks”.

However, they warned that if the "R" rate stays above 1, the epidemic "will continue to deviate from the planning scenario."

The government-funded REACT study at Imperial College London earlier this week predicted the R-rate had risen to 1.6 across England – the highest since the initial lockdown. It added that it could be as high as 2.8 in London.

When the R-Rate is above 1, a breakout can grow exponentially. An R of 1.8 would mean that, on average, every 10 people infected would infect 28 other people.

SAGE's latest official R-rate estimates claimed the number had declined, ranging from 1.1 to 1.3 both nationally and in London.

In both cases, there seems to be a consensus that the infection rate should stay above 1.

SAGE had asked the government to follow in Germany's and France's footsteps by retreating into a full national shutdown "for at least a month" because they said the three-tier system had failed.

However, according to top experts, it takes at least three weeks for the interventions to take effect. The tiered system didn't go into effect until October 14, a little over two weeks ago.

There is a delay of about three weeks between infections and deaths. The scientists told ministers that without further restrictions, the death toll will continue to rise exponentially and hospitals will be overwhelmed.

The number of virus patients in the hospital has doubled in the past 14 days. Currently 10,708 are being treated by the NHS.

If this path of doubling every two weeks continues, there will be more than 20,000 hospitalized patients by mid-November, more than at the height of the first wave.

On Friday, SAGE sent a sharp warning to Mr Johnson that the deaths were already on track to exceed the 85,000 they had projected over the summer in their "worst-case scenario" model – which is estimated to be by The end of 100 Covid-19 deaths a day would mean by October. The UK is already three times that amount.

A senior official said: "Time marches on, we are two months before Christmas. The more the numbers go up, the harder it is to turn them around."

SAGE also said the prime minister missed the moment for a "breaker".

A scientific source working for the government told The Times, “It is definitely too late to believe that a two week breaker alone would fix us. . . It would almost certainly have to take longer. & # 39;

SAGE released a document on October 14th, stating that the group warned two weeks ago that the virus was spreading faster than the "worst-case scenario" and that up to 75,000 new infections occur every day

SAGE released a document on October 14th, stating that the group warned two weeks ago that the virus was spreading faster than the "worst-case scenario" and that up to 75,000 new infections occur every day

Regarding the expected new lockdown measures, a senior government source told the Times that no final decision had been made as to what exactly they would mean.

They added: 'The data is really bad. We are seeing the coronavirus increase across the country and hospitals are struggling to deal with it. Our position has changed. & # 39;

Details of the lockdown series came after the mail announced how the Prime Minister was warned by scientists – led by Professor Chris Whitty and scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance – that all hospitals in England would be full by December 17th, provided that he is not taking any more action.

Andy Street, the mayor of the West Midlands Conservative, said it was clear that further action was needed. He added: "I don't know if this is a national four-week lockdown, but I know the message is very clear: we need to take further action to turn this tide."

SAGE's plot of the mean R-rate in the UK, with bars representing different independent estimates

SAGE's plot of the mean R-rate in the UK, with bars representing different independent estimates

SAGE's illustration of the growth rate of Covid-19 in the regions of the NHS England. The bars represent various independent estimates, the gray shaded areas represent the combined numerical range, and the black bars are the combined range rounded to one decimal place

SAGE's illustration of the growth rate of Covid-19 in the regions of the NHS England. The bars represent various independent estimates, the gray shaded areas represent the combined numerical range, and the black bars are the combined range rounded to one decimal place

SAGE's plot of the mean R-rate in different NHS regions of England. The bars represent various independent estimates, the areas shaded in gray represent the combined numerical range, and the black bars are the combined range rounded to one decimal place

SAGE's plot of the mean R-rate in different NHS regions of England. The bars represent various independent estimates, the areas shaded in gray represent the combined numerical range, and the black bars are the combined range rounded to one decimal place

SAGE presents the estimates of the mean R-rate for the four countries in the United Kingdom. The bars represent various independent estimates, the gray shaded areas represent the combined numerical range, and the black bars are the combined range rounded to one decimal place

SAGE presents estimates of the mean R-rate for the four countries in the United Kingdom. The bars represent various independent estimates, the areas shaded in gray represent the combined numerical range, and the black bars are the combined range rounded to one decimal place

Professor Dominic Harrison, Blackburn director of public health at Darwen Council, called for a breaker because tier three households "did not fully comply" with guidelines.

But Recovery's Jon Dobinson said, “The concept of a four-week lockdown to save Christmas is even more cruel and inhumane, which will fuel the growing mental health crisis – all justified by false hopes.

What is the TRUTH about Britain's second wave? The R-rate drops again and the symptom tracking app says the outbreak is "stable" – but Imperial is warning of 96,000 cases per day and even ONS claims the infections are "spiking".

There is no doubt that coronavirus infections are still on the rise in the UK, but mathematicians and scientists disagree on how bad the second wave really is.

A number of statistics have been released over the past 48 hours, with conflicting estimates of the number of people becoming infected with the virus, between 35,000 and 96,000 a day, and some doubts about fateful warnings of a repeat of the disaster in March.

Statistics released this week have highlighted a wide range of possible daily infections in England, from just 34,000 according to an estimate by King & # 39; s College London to 96,000 according to a government-run REACT study

Statistics released this week have highlighted a wide range of possible daily infections in England, from just 34,000 according to an estimate by King & # 39; s College London to 96,000 according to a government-run REACT study

One of the Office for National Statistics' top Covid-19 analysts said today that cases in England are "rising sharply" while an epidemiologist behind another project said people could be "reassured" that the virus is not getting out of hand .

Of studies in which the number of new infections per day in England is estimated, the ONS put 51,900; King & # 39; s College Covid Symptom Study reads 34,628; a Cambridge University "nowcast" said 55,600; and Imperial College London's government-funded REACT study put them at 96,000. The Ministry of Health's official testing program records 22,125 infections daily, but a large number has been known to be overlooked with no symptoms.

All calculations have increased since their previous estimates and there is agreement that the outbreak is getting worse, but the speed at which this is happening is unclear.

In the meantime, SAGE released its weekly estimate of the R-rate today, stating that the rate of propagation has decreased. The government's scientific advisors have set the ranges for the UK and England at 1.1 to 1.3, up from 1.2 to 1.4 last week. However, they said, "SAGE is almost certain that the epidemic will continue to grow rapidly across the country."

The number of people being hospitalized and dying from coronavirus continues to rise rapidly. Currently, an average of 230 deaths per day are announced and 10,308 people hospitalized with Covid-19, an increase of more than 1,000 per day.

These will continue to rise over the coming weeks and months, even as cases slow down or even fall, officials say, as hospitalizations and deaths from infections that occur two to three weeks earlier are “burned in”.

A statistician who was not involved in any of the predictions – Professor James Naismith of Oxford University – said that there were "uncertainties" in all of them, meaning that not a single number was correct. He added, "We can be almost certain that the number of deaths per day from Covid-19 will increase over the next few weeks."

"People are dying by the thousands from lockdowns and restrictions. It's time to focus."

A scientific source working for the government also told the Times that it was now "too late" for the circuit breaker to trip.

They said, “It is definitely too late to believe that a two week breaker alone would fix us. . . It would almost certainly have to take longer. & # 39;

Commenting on the prospect of a new lockdown, Professor Jeremy Farrar, member of the Sage Scientific Advisory Group, said, “To get Covid-19 under control, we must act now. The virus won't wait for us. & # 39;

The infectious disease expert wrote on Twitter: "Nobody wants" a lockdown, myself included. Full and generous support to people and businesses is a key factor in making it work.

"But we quickly broke through the reasonable worst-case scenario. In this phase of the epidemic we are further ahead than many assumed."

“The best time to act was a month ago, but these are very difficult decisions that we would all like to avoid. The second best time is now. & # 39;

Professor Gabriel Scally, a wise member and president of the Epidemiology and Public Health Division of the Royal Society of Medicine, said on Twitter: “It is possible to be very concerned about the mental health effects of the pandemic and the treatment of non-pandemic too its Covid conditions and still believe that stricter measures are the best and most necessary course of action. The more the virus spreads, the less capacity the NHS has.

UCL's wise member Professor Christina Pagel added that another national lockdown was "inevitable". The director of clinical operations research told Sky News: “By and large, Covid is spreading particularly in England and Wales.

"I suspect Wales" cases will fall next week when their outbreak takes place. "But basically it is spreading everywhere and at the moment mainly in tier 1 areas."

When asked if a second national lockdown is worth damaging the economy and people's mental health, she said, "I think this is inevitable, and since it is inevitable, the sooner you do it, I think the faster it's over and the more lives you save. "

Foreign Minister Dominic Raab had previously told BBC Radio 4's Today program that the government had tried to avoid a national lockdown.

He added, “We are always ready for any other action we can take. But I think the most important thing about further action is that we continue on our path to fight the virus. & # 39;

There have also been reports of further Tory infighting, with allegations by senior MPs that the lockdown revolt by Conservative MPs in the northern Red Wall seats was led by “selfish young MPs who are old enough to have nothing to fear” from Covid has been.

Despite the fighting, the latest data shows that Hospitals are filling up with infected patients and are up about a third in the last week. The MailOnline analysis shows that 19 NHS trusts are already treating more virus patients than on the darkest days of the pandemic in spring.

Trusts in third-tier restricted areas such as Nottingham, Liverpool and Doncaster are seeing up to three times as many Covid-19 patients as in mid-April, and there are still five brutal months of winter left.

The fact that several trusts are already past spring levels will be cause for concern so early in winter. The deeper the country penetrates into the colder months, the sicker people become from a number of other illnesses and require care, which adds to the pressure on hospitals.

There is reason to be optimistic, however, as the total number of beds occupied by Covid-19 patients across the country is still only half what it was during the darkest days of the crisis in spring. The hospitals were not overwhelmed in April either.

And while hospitals fill up quickly, they are mostly located in hotspot areas, and some experts believe it was a direct result of a surge in infections in mid-September, which means that uptake could soon decline.

REACT-1 predicted earlier this week that the reproductive rate across England had risen to 1.6 – the highest since the first national lockdown – and possibly as high as 2.8 in London.

When the R is above 1, a breakout can grow exponentially. An R of 1.8 would mean that, on average, every 10 people infected would infect 28 other people. However, SAGE's most recent official R-rate estimates – also released today – claimed the number had fallen, ranging from 1.1 to 1.3 both nationally and in London.

Amid confusion about the true extent of the country's infection rates, one thing is clear: hospitals are filling up with infected patients, and have increased by about a third in the past week. The MailOnline analysis shows that 19 NHS trusts are already treating more virus patients than on the darkest days of the pandemic in spring.

Trusts in third-tier restricted areas such as Nottingham, Liverpool and Doncaster are seeing up to three times as many Covid-19 patients as in mid-April, and there are still five brutal months of winter left.

The fact that several trusts are already past spring levels will be cause for concern so early in winter. The deeper the country penetrates into the colder months, the sicker people become from a number of other illnesses and require care, adding to the pressure on hospitals.

There is a reason to be optimistic, however, as the total number of beds occupied by Covid-19 patients across the country is still only half what it was during the darkest days of the crisis in spring. The hospitals were not overwhelmed in April either.

And while hospitals fill up quickly, they are mostly located in hotspot areas, and some experts believe it was a direct result of a surge in infections in mid-September, which means admission could soon fail.

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