The number of people developing coronavirus in England remains stable at 2,000 a day, according to official figures that provide no evidence that infections are on the rise.
According to the Bureau of National Statistics, there are now an estimated 2,000 new cases per day each day – an average of 200 fewer than last Friday when the forecast was 2,200.
It is believed that 27,100 people in England are infected at one time – 0.05 percent of the population, or one in 2,000 people. That's a four percent decrease from last week's estimate of 28,200.
ONS statisticians said: "There is evidence that the incidence rate for England is unchanged".
The reassurance comes from the fact that the number of officially diagnosed cases is increasing and yesterday was the highest in three months with 1,735 people tested positive. However, scientists say many of these new cases are being picked up because the testing system has improved and is targeting areas with outbreaks.
Researchers at King & # 39; s College London, who run an app that nearly four million people use to report symptoms and test results, estimate that there are 2,000 new cases per day across the UK.
But that's a 53 percent increase from their estimate the week before – 1,300 – and the highest since late July. Neither of the teams include cases in nursing homes or hospitals in their estimates, and the King's app, which is powered by healthcare technology company ZOE, does not consider people who have no symptoms or who are not tested.
Six new coronavirus hotspots across the UK have been flagged by the Covid Symptom Tracker app, three of which have been added for the first time.
At the top of the unofficial "watch list" is East Renfrewshire, Scotland, while West Lothian is number 10 after the Scottish Government decided to introduce restrictions in regions in West Scotland.
Ards and North Down in Northern Ireland were also new to the watchlist, while Neath Port Talbot in Wales, Nottingham and Tameside in England were added to the watch list after prior submission.
But not a single area in the south or east of England, including London, is showing in terms of infection levels, a sign that Covid-19 continues to divide the UK.
Data from the Office for National Statistics: There are now an average of 2,000 new cases per day
Researchers at King & # 39; s College London also estimate that there are 2,000 new cases per day across the UK. But that's a 53 percent increase from their estimate the week before – 1,300
King & # 39; s College London estimates there are 2,000 new cases per day across the UK, 53 percent more than last week
The National Statistics Office also reports a constant number of 2,000 per day. It said: "There is evidence that the incidence rate for England remains unchanged".
The team has reported six new coronavirus hotspots across the UK, three of which have been added for the first time (East Renfrewshire and West Lothian in Scotland and Ards and North Down in Wales). Neath Port Talbot in Wales, Nottingham and Tameside in England were put back on the list after prior surrender. Manchester have stayed on the list for the second straight week, along with Blackpool, Halton and Oldham
ONS said: & # 39; While the percentage of people who tested positive for Covid-19 has declined since the study began (April 26, 2020), estimates suggest there has been a slight increase since July lowest recorded estimate at the end was in June. This trend has flattened further since the end of July. & # 39;
The current coronavirus prevalence in the community – 27,100 – is nearly 10 percent lower than it was estimated at 24,600 a fortnight ago.
The data always works in a range of possibilities, however, and the true number for daily new cases this week could be between 1,100 and 3,200, while total infections could be between 19,300 and 36,700, according to the ONS.
It's the fourth straight week that ONS has reported a drop in new cases every day, suggesting the outbreak is steady and cases are neither rising nor falling significantly.
There is no sign of a second wave of COVID-19 in the UK, scientists say
The UK is not entering a second wave of coronavirus infections, and the young, mildly affected people diagnosed in rising case numbers are unlikely to trigger an increase in hospital admissions, experts say.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock warned this week that the UK "must do everything in our power" to stop a second wave of people hospitalized with the coronavirus, which began in Europe.
However, experts told MailOnline that Mr. Hancock's comments were "alarming" and that there were currently "no signs" of a second wave on the horizon. The data show that contrary to what the Minister of Health claims, hospital cases are not increasing sharply in Europe either.
As of Monday, there were only 764 people in the UK with Covid-19 in hospital, of whom only 60 are in intensive care. This is a sharp decrease from a high of 19,872 hospital patients on April 12th.
The number of hospital cases has been falling, although infections have increased since lockdown restrictions were lifted in early July. Experts say this is because the groups that are being infected and diagnosed now are completely different than they were when the pandemic began.
Scientists say younger people are the ones who cause infections and are less likely to get seriously ill and end up in the hospital. Because of this, hospital cases and deaths are not necessarily going to follow higher cases, and there may not be a fatal wave like the first.
Professor Carl Heneghan, a medical professional at Oxford University, said: “There is currently no second wave. What we are seeing is a sharp increase in the number of healthy people who carry the virus but show no symptoms. Almost all of them are young. They are discovered because – finally – there is a comprehensive system of national tests and tracings in place. & # 39;
Mr Hancock said Tuesday in the House of Commons that he feared this surge in infections in healthy people would creep into vulnerable groups if allowed to continue, saying this was a pattern in the US where cases are spiraling out of control.
But scientists shot down Mr Hancock's Doomsayer comments, pointing out that deaths in France or Spain have not increased and the reason why hospital admissions in the UK with diagnosed cases have not increased "simply reflects increased testing".
Official data from the continent shows that despite an increase in positive tests, European hospitals are not filling up with coronavirus patients – hospital admissions have decreased in France, Spain and Germany while cases have increased.
The Open University statistician, Professor Kevin McConway, told MailOnline: “An important point is that the number of Covid deaths in France has shown little sign of increasing recently. The number of deaths in Spain has increased somewhat but is not very pronounced at all. & # 39;
Statisticians say expanding testing capacity means infections are easier to find than it was when the pandemic started. In the UK alone, the number of tests performed has increased by 20 percent from early July to the present day. However, the number of positive results has only increased 0.3 percent over the same period, suggesting that new cases are a combination of more testing and only a small increase in infections at hotspots.
The figures contradict daily health department data based on positive test results across the UK. Cases have been up since July, and the 7-day moving average is now 1,435, up a quarter (26 percent) increase per week.
Oliver Johnson, Professor of Information Theory at the School of Mathematics at Bristol University, said: “These data (from ONS) appear to contradict the recent surge in cases in the UK. This may be due in part to the fact that some of these cases were discovered by targeted testing in hotspots.
"In addition, it is important to note that this ONS survey only covers England and Wales: a significant portion of the recent increase in cases has occurred in Scotland and Northern Ireland and is therefore not visible here."
Experts have repeatedly said that the increase in positive Covid-19 cases is likely due to floodplain areas where more testing needs to be done – in city centers and from knocking on people's doors.
However, it is also likely that transmission will increase slightly as people return to work and social activities. This is seen in parts of the north west of England and parts of Scotland such as Glasgow and Clyde.
Professor Johnson added, “Today's ONS Infection Survey numbers are very similar to last week. In fact, the long-term trend has been largely flat since the beginning of July, suggesting an R-value close to 1. & # 39;
ONS doesn't claim the outbreak is actually shrinking as there is always some level of uncertainty about the numbers.
Despite the fact that they swab 20,000 people across the country, only a tiny number are actually positive. So the estimates are based on less than a handful of people.
It is also impossible to detect any new infection. However, the benefit of the ONS Infection Survey is to find those who have no symptoms rather than just those who come up with testing.
The ONS report claims, as throughout the outbreak, that there is no measurable difference in the rate of infection between different regions of England.
It shows that Yorkshire, Humber, and the east appear to test positive more than other regions, but the differences are not statistically significant.
In this regard, the ONS report contradicts other sources. All local lockdowns imposed by the government take place in the Midlands, Northern England or Scotland.
For the first time, ONS also published estimates of how many people in England have antibodies – proteins in the blood that indicate that a person had Covid-19 and was recovering from it.
Between April 26 and August 23, six percent of people tested positive for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, suggesting they had the infection in the past.
There was some evidence of regional differences in the percentage of people who tested positive for antibodies to Covid-19, which supported previous research.
In London, an estimated 11 percent of people have tested positive for antibodies – the highest level in any region of England. The West Midlands followed with 6.8 percent.
The lowest regional estimate was in the south west of England at 3.5 percent.
Public Health England (PHE) also publishes an estimate of the prevalence of antibodies in the blood in England, but uses a different test than ONS.
In its latest report, PHE said 17.5 percent of people in London had antibodies to the coronavirus, which has increased steadily over the course of the pandemic.
The results also agree with those of the REACT study conducted by Imperial College London, which is based on self-administered antibody tests on 100,000 people.
A report published on medRxiv on Aug. 13 showed that London had the highest numbers at over twice the national average (13 percent), while the South West had the lowest (three percent).
The ONS report claims that there is no measurable difference in the rate of infection between different regions of England. However, it shows that more people test positive in Yorkshire, Humber and the east than in other regions, but the differences are not statistically significant
In London, an estimated 11 percent of people have tested positive for antibodies – the highest level in any region of England
The weekly report from King's College suggests that there are outbreaks across the UK which are causing cases to steadily increase.
The COVID Symptom Study App, developed by health scientist ZOE, has now been downloaded by over 3.9 million people in the UK who regularly report whether they have symptoms of the coronavirus or have been tested.
HOW HAVE THE CASES CHANGED OVER TIME?
King & # 39; s College London's COVID Symptom Tracker app estimated the following daily new cases for the UK as a whole:
- August 29: 1974
- August 22: 1,292
- August 15: 1,265
- August 8: 1.434
- August 1: 1.626
- July 25: 2.110
- July 18: 1,884
- July 11: 2,103
- July 4th: 1,472
- June 25: 2,341
- June 18: 3,612
Researchers say there are currently 1,974 new cases of Covid-19 in the UK every day based on data from 9,489 swab tests done between August 9 and August 22.
The incidence number increased from 1,292 last week, when the numbers had remained constant since early July. Just three weeks ago, researchers had said it was "encouraging" to see cases across the UK falling to July levels.
It's not clear why the King's College estimate of 1,292 in the week between August 15-22 is so much lower than the ONS at 2,200 at 2,200.
But it's still in the range that ONS stated (between 1,100 and 3,800).
One reason the COVID Symptom Studies app's estimate is consistently lower than the ONS is because the data doesn't include any asymptomatic cases.
ONS dabs hundreds of thousands of people in random households and therefore detects those who are not showing symptoms. However, the COVID Symptoms Study app relies on people reporting their own symptoms.
Similarly, the app's estimated prevalence of 22,040 versus 18,340 the week before is within the range reported by ONS Today (19,300 to 36,700).
This week several new areas were marked on King's watchlist that weren't there the week before. The aim of the list is to highlight problem areas so that attention can be focused there, e.g. B. Enhanced Tests.
East Renfrewshire and West Lothian in Scotland have entered the top 10 problem areas for the first time since the app launched, with 0.22 percent and 0.14 percent carrying the coronavirus, respectively.
Infection rates across the UK as predicted by the COVID Symptom Study app
On Tuesday, Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced that a ban on indoor gatherings would be imposed on East Renfrewshire, Glasgow and West Dunbartonshire.
SEVEN SCHOOLS HAVE ALREADY SEEN CASES
At least seven schools in England have sent students home to self-isolate as students contracted coronavirus within days of starting school.
Elementary and secondary schools in Greater Manchester, Yorkshire, Leicestershire, Lancashire and Buckinghamshire are all affected by the virus – seven students are being sent home and another is delaying the start of the school year.
Notable among them is Sir William Borlase's high school in Marlow, Bucks, which delayed the start of school yesterday after 20 students tested positive for Covid-19 after returning from a party vacation on the Greek island of Zante.
Today it turned out that another seven schools – which, unlike Sir William Borlases, had already started school – had asked students to go home after a few hours in the classroom.
The seven schools are:
- The Dixons Trinity Academy in Bradford
- Dixons Kings Academy, Bradford
- King David High School in Crumspall, Greater Manchester
- The Ridgeway Primary Academy in Market Harborough, Leicestershire
- Chesham High School, Buckinghamshire
- Sir William Borlases High School in Marlow, Buckinghamshire
- A school in Whitworth, Lancashire
Cases have increased in the area Ms. Sturgeon said cases are mainly due to household mixing. Schools, pubs and restaurants were allowed to stay open.
The First Minister announced yesterday that the coronavirus reproductive rate in Scotland is now "likely above one" and could reach 1.4.
Scotland reported 101 new cases of Covid-19 yesterday, for the fifth day in a row, with cases in the triple digits. Cases have seen an upward trend this month after hitting record lows in June and July.
Preliminary figures show that 53 of these new cases are in the greater Glasgow area and Clyde.
While across Scotland the number of positive cases of coronavirus is 9.2 per 100,000 people, it is 21.8 in Glasgow, 18.8 in East Renfrewshire and 32.6 per 100,000 in West Dunbartonshire, the deputy first said Minister John Swinney.
Tim Spector, Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King & # 39; s College London, who leads research with the Covid-19 app, commented, “While the numbers are rising again as economic activity and travel increase, it's good to see that If the numbers rise, areas like the Glasgow area are taking swift action to stop the situation from spreading. & # 39;
Ards and North Down in Northern Ireland and Neath Port Talbot in Wales were also added to King's watchlist for the first time as they were not previously identified as locations with high transmission rates.
Around 0.17 percent and 0.16 percent of the population currently have the coronavirus in these communities, which is a small number of people in real terms.
Second on the watch list is Manchester, where 0.19 percent of people have the coronavirus.
The ten boroughs of Greater Manchester have been subject to stricter Covid-19 restrictions since the end of July. But these are starting to lift in some areas as well Lancashire and West Yorkshire, where coronavirus cases have declined.
Manchester have stayed on the list for the second straight week, along with Blackpool, Halton and Oldham. Some areas in the north of England are on the list each week.
Professor Spector said: “We have yet to state that, like in the north of England, these localized outbreaks are having a negative impact on hospitals and NHS capacity, suggesting that those who receive COVID may be milder cases with fewer ending as a result in the hospital, which is good news. & # 39;
Halton and Blackpool were not identified in the latest Public Watch England table released last Friday.
Last week's report showed Pendle, Oldham and Blackburn topped the PHE rankings with Darwen as "areas of intervention". Manchester is in that category too.
The weekly report released today by PHE is expected to see a change in the watchlist, with Leeds in West Yorkshire being viewed as an addition.
City council chairwoman Judith Blake has spoken out in favor of a citywide effort to fight the coronavirus as the rate of infection continues to rise.
Modeling by Imperial College London also predicts that Leeds will become one of England's hotspots in the next two weeks.
Research has shown that there is an 85 percent chance the city will hit 50 cases per 100,000 residents.
Yesterday the UK announced another 1,735 new coronavirus cases, with the largest daily increase in three months
It comes after the UK announced 1,735 new coronavirus cases yesterday in its biggest daily spike in three months.
The last time daily infections were higher was on June 4, when 1,805 were diagnosed with the disease and most of the strict lockdown restrictions were still in place.
The seven-day moving case average is now 1,435, a quarter (26 percent) per week.
Although cases have been on the rise since July, scientists have emphasized that this is not a sign of a second wave and that they have always expected case diagnoses to increase as lockdown measures are lifted and the testing system improved.
Experts tell MailOnline that the rising numbers are simply the result of young, healthy people being captured by official numbers. They were previously missing because the tests were reserved for the sick.
The number of deaths continues to rise and hospital admissions remain unchanged. Less than 800 Covid-19 patients are in beds and 82 in ventilators.
Because of this, scientists say the surge in cases currently facing a “second wave” is not a cause for concern, it is simply due to increased testing in the community.
The coronavirus has never been "eliminated" which, according to some scientists, means that the "first wave" is not really over yet. Newly diagnosed cases were lowest on July 6, when 352 cases were recorded.
Bolton in the Greater Manchester area is number one for the highest infections in England at 76.5 cases per 100,000 population. Pendle is outdated wherever there is 71.7 cases per 100,000 people.
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