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The best SAGE scientist admits Tier 3 DOES works but came too late


Tier three had "the effect it had to have" under control on the coronavirus crisis in England, a senior government scientific adviser admitted today.

However, the expert, who wanted to remain anonymous, suggested that the program did not fight infections quickly enough because they came too late.

SAGE has been warning for weeks that a "breaker" would be needed to reset the epidemic and bring it under control after cases spike in early fall.

He said ministers wanted the families to meet during the holiday season and not cancel Christmas – and as part of the tiered strategy that would not be possible.

His comments on Tier 3 work are the most open official admission about the system that SAGE has made to date. The group was shy to admit the measures were sufficient, possibly because it could contradict their calls for a second lockdown.

Professor Chris Whitty said in October that the tiered system alone was "not enough to get the fall epidemic under control".

To temper people's expectations, the SAGE scientist who spoke today – who wasn't Professor Whitty – also warned that the daily death toll could still be high if the country comes out of lockdown next month.

This is because it takes at least two weeks for interventions to lower infection rates and even longer for deaths and hospital admission rates to follow – due to the time it takes every Covid-19 patient to fall seriously.

He said some form of the tiered system would have to remain in place through December to further reduce infections once the country emerges from the shutdown.

Tier three had "the effect it had to have" under control on the coronavirus crisis in England, a senior government scientific adviser admitted today

The number of coronavirus patients being treated in Liverpool hospitals fell 15 percent in the week leading up to the second national lockdown. This emerges from official NHS data, which further questions whether the fall shutdown was warranted

The number of coronavirus patients treated at hospitals in Liverpool fell by 15 percent in the week leading up to the second national lockdown. This emerges from official NHS data, which further questions whether the fall shutdown was justified

Large trusts in other Tier 3 areas also saw the number of Covid-19 patients in their hospitals decline before the second lockdown, suggesting that the strictest local measures were not being given enough time to work. For example, the NHS Trust in Merseyside, St. Helens and Knowsley treated 105 people for the disease on November 5, compared with 118 the week before. A similar story is playing out at the Blackpool Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, where Covid-19-occupied beds fell from 188 to 142 over the same period

Large trusts in other Tier 3 areas also saw the number of Covid-19 patients in their hospitals decline before the second lockdown, suggesting that the strictest local measures were not being given enough time to work. For example, the NHS Trust in Merseyside, St. Helens and Knowsley treated 105 people for the disease on Nov. 5, compared with 118 the week before. A similar story is playing out at the Blackpool Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, where Covid-19-occupied beds fell from 188 to 142 over the same period

He added that Tier 2 also had the desired effect in some areas, although not as much as in Tier 3 areas.

In the harshest of situations, residents were forbidden from meeting people they weren't living in and saw pubs need to close – but gyms, unnecessary shops and restaurants could stay open.

More proof that England has the worst of the second wave behind them? Test the positivity rate of DROPS for the first time in almost three months

The percentage of coronavirus tests that are positive has fallen for the first time in almost three months in England, according to official figures.

It raises further hopes that the country will get a better grip on its second wave and may already be in the middle of it.

Experts say one of the most accurate and fairest ways to track the progress of the virus is to look at the positivity rates of the tests – the percentage of swabs that come back positive.

When a country has a high positivity rate, it means the centralized system is struggling to keep up with the outbreak. However, a low rate means that only a small proportion of the population actually has the disease.

A weekly report published today by Public Health England found that 9.7 percent of the second pillar tests performed in the week ended November 8th showed positive results. That was a decrease of 10.2 percent over the seven days before.

It is the first time since the week leading up to August 2 that the positivity rate for Pillar 2 tests has decreased. Pillar 2 is performed in test centers, drive-through clinics, and in private homes – which makes up the vast majority of all tests.

The first pillar tests – which were done in hospitals – also fell from the week, falling from 4.8 percent to 4.5 percent. It was the first time since the week leading up to August 23 that that number had fallen.

It comes as the UK announced another 33,470 positive cases yesterday – 39 percent more than last Thursday – despite indicators showing the outbreak is slowing.

The number of cases is the highest since the Covid-19 outbreak began and comes a week after the second national lockdown began in England. It's an increase from 22,950 yesterday.

However, unofficial statistics suggest that the country's outbreak slowed and diminished even before the November 5 lockdown began, and is expected to continue to shrink during November's strict regulations.

In Tier 2, people were prohibited from mingling with anyone outside their own homes, but pubs were allowed to stay open.

All three levels had to adhere to the then applicable national rules, including the 10 p.m. curfew and the rule of six.

The SAGE expert said, “At level three, evidence looks like level three brings the R to one or below in most places. That has the necessary effect.

"Tier Two" does the same thing in some locations, depending on location and compliance. Tier One doesn't look like it. This will give you an idea of ​​what action to take in the future after locking to stay in control. & # 39;

When he was depressed, he did not comment on relaxing measures at Christmas so the families could spend the holidays together. He said it was merely a "political decision, not a science decision".

Fighting hard for the second lockdown, SAGE presented increasingly doomy models to the government that predicted that thousands of daily deaths and hospitals would be overwhelmed by December.

While it will never be known what actual effect the tiered system would have had because it was abandoned just two weeks later, there have been a number of indications that these dark predictions would never have come true.

Today's analysis by MailOnline found that the number of coronavirus patients treated in hospitals in Liverpool fell by 15 percent in the week leading up to the second national lockdown.

NHS England figures show that on November 5th, the day the country went into its second lockdown, 413 people with Covid-19 were living at Liverpool University Hospitals, the city's largest trust.

That was a 13 percent decrease from the 475 treated the week before October 30.

It is true, however, that the Trust is treating more Covid-19 patients than at the height of the first wave – for comparison, on April 12, 346 people were infected with the virus in Liverpool's hospitals.

However, it is believed that the Trust has a total of at least 1,600 beds and as of November 5, 1,268 were occupied by patients of all diseases.

It suggests that the trust, which has broken off numerous non-urgent surgeries to make room, is currently 80 percent busy – making it quieter than it was last December.

Large trusts in other Tier 3 areas also saw the number of Covid-19 patients in their hospitals decreasing before the second lockdown, suggesting that the strictest local measures were not being given enough time to work.

For example, the NHS Trust in Merseyside, St. Helens and Knowsley treated 105 people for the disease on Nov. 5, compared with 118 the week before.

A similar story is playing out at the Blackpool Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, where Covid-19-occupied beds fell from 188 to 142 over the same period.

However, in other Tier 3 areas such as Manchester and Lancashire, Covid-19 hospital admissions have not yet decreased.

Although the measures in these areas were only enforced in late October, it could take another week for the benefits to be transferred to the hospital data.

This is because of the time lag it takes Covid-19 patients to get seriously ill enough to need treatment.

Professor Paul Hunter, epidemiologist at the University of East Anglia, commented on the results to MailOnline: “I have no doubt that Tier Three worked. Personally, I think the data is very clear that tier three was enough to topple it cases and I think most of the local authorities in tier 2 have worked as well. & # 39;

Meanwhile, analysis of Public Health England's numbers found that more than eight out of ten local authorities under Tier 3 restrictions had coronavirus cases in the week leading up to the national lockdown – further evidence of the success of Animal Three.

In the final days of the tiered system, 26 out of 31 councils (82 percent) saw their Covid-19 cases decline under the strictest restrictions at the time. Level three allowed restaurants, non-essential shops, and gyms to stay open, but pubs were forced to close and people were not allowed to mingle with other households.

Tier 2 areas with closures with 22 of the 64 councils (34 percent) as part of the measures that saw a decrease in Covid-19 infections in the week ended November 5. Tier two areas only prevented people from mingling with people they didn't have life with.

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