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Support for nationwide circuit breaker lockdown extends to Tory backbenches


One of Boris Johnson's senior backers and a senior government scientist today joined calls for a brief lockdown on the national circuit breaker to warn of 690 daily coronavirus deaths within 14 days.

The prime minister has so far defied demands by Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer and regional mayors for a nationwide lockdown and is pushing ahead with a targeted battle plan with local restrictions.

More than 28 million people are now living under stricter standards, with people in London among them crashed into Tier 2 last night, prohibiting two households from meeting indoors.

But former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt this morning increased pressure on the Prime Minister to go further and expressed his support for a short circuit switch.

The Tory MP said, "I've always thought it was better to get things done quickly and decisively than waiting for the virus to grow, so I fully understand that."

Government scientific adviser Sir John Bell rowed in behind Mr Hunt and said he saw "very little opportunity to get over it without a breaker because the numbers are actually quite tearful".

Scientists from the Department of Biostatistics at Cambridge University's Medical Research Council presented the dire prognosis to Sage and an estimated 47,000 people are infected every day in England.

While your modeling emphasizes that the "significant proportion" of cases are asymptomatic, it suggests that hundreds will die every day by the end of the month.

The report released this week said, "We expect the number of deaths per day on October 26 to be between 240 and 690."

In other developments:

  • Mr Johnson said the UK is developing the capacity to produce millions of rapid turnaround tests for coronavirus that could produce results in just 15 minutes;
  • The National Education Union rowed behind Sir Keir Starmer's call for a national breaker to help fight infection.
  • The Welsh government should meet to discuss a breaker lockout and will announce all decisions on Monday.
  • In the UK, 15,650 cases of coronavirus and 136 deaths were recorded on Friday.
  • A senior scientist predicted the UK could have 1 million coronavirus tests a day by Christmas.
  • The Prime Minister's attention briefly switched from the pandemic to warn of a no-deal Brexit as both London and Brussels intensified their tough talks.

The R-rate remains stable overall for the UK but has declined for the second straight week in England, falling from a possible range of 1.3-1.6 on October 2nd to 1.2-1.4 today. But SAGE warned today that it was

The R-rate remains stable overall for the UK but has declined for the second straight week in England, falling from a possible range of 1.3-1.6 on October 2nd to 1.2-1.4 today. But SAGE warned today that it was "confident the transmission won't slow" and that cases will continue to grow exponentially as long as R stays above one

Yesterday the government announced 15,650 new laboratory-confirmed coronavirus cases, although the actual number is estimated to be much higher.

The Cambridge scientists point to Covid-19 hotspots like the Northwest and Northeast, where infections are estimated at 17,600 and 10,000 respectively. followed by London and the Midlands at 5,450 and 5,720.

London, Essex, York, Elmbridge, Barrow-in-Furness, Northeast Derbyshire, Erewash and Chesterfield were plunged into Tier 2 last night, banning various households from indoor meeting.

Lancashire also joined Liverpool on the hardest tier 3, which requires all pubs to close unless they can serve food.

However, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is resisting government efforts to raise his area to very high alarm levels and is also advocating a breaker.

The PM warned Mr Burnham that he would unilaterally impose tier 3 restrictions on the Manchester area, with sources pointing out as early as Monday.

From number 10, he said, “I cannot stress this enough: time is of the essence. Every day that goes by before action is taken means more people will be hospitalized, more people will end up in intensive care and, tragically, more people will die. & # 39;

In response, Mr Burnham and the Greater Manchester Council Chairs "did everything in our power to protect the health of our residents," saying that people and businesses need greater financial support before accepting the lockdown.

In a joint statement, they also suggested that Downing Street had delayed discussions, adding, "We can assure the Prime Minister that we are ready to meet at any time to find a way forward."

Mr Hunt this morning called on both sides to end the public war of words and come to a private agreement.

He told BBC Radio 4, "I think right now it's more important to end this public war of words between local and national leaders because in a pandemic the most important thing is a consistent message because that's what you really have to do. very important public health messages about social distancing.

His comments came when Sir John, Regius professor of medicine at Oxford, threw his weight behind a two-week breaker to help control the rising rate of infection.

Sir John told BBC Radio 4, “I can hardly find a way to get over it without a breaker as the numbers are actually pretty staggering in some parts of the country and I think it will be very hard to go to come just to bite the edges.

“I think every effort will be made to keep the schools open. If we end up having to take children with us for two weeks to calm everything down and then ideally be embedded in a much stricter testing regime, we may have to do that. & # 39;

Sir Patrick Vallance yesterday offered a glimmer of hope, saying the UK coronavirus outbreak is not as quick as it was in the spring as social distancing and lockdown measures help keep cases on leash.

However, the government's main scientific adviser warned that the epidemic is "growing everywhere" and that further action must be taken to bring the R-rate down, which for the UK is between 1.3 and 1.5, which means that the cases will continue to grow exponentially.

An official report from SAGE found that the R-rate in England has been falling for two straight weeks, falling from an estimated range of 1.2-1.6 on October 2nd to 1.2-1.4 today . However, the group warned that there is no evidence that the outbreak is slowing, saying, "SAGE is almost certain that the epidemic continues to grow exponentially across the country and is confident that transmission will not slow down."

According to ONS estimates for the first week of October, the number of published statistics in England is still increasing by up to 28,000 new infections per day, and Sir Patrick put the number at 40,000 per day – or more – per day, more recent estimates.

Although the numbers are still rising dramatically and have been higher than anything else since March and April, they still pale in comparison to the first wave when it was known that at least 100,000 people were known to catch Covid-19 every day.

Separate data shows that nearly a third of English councils saw a drop in coronavirus infections over the past week as a second breaker shutdown was requested and restrictions tightened across the country. In contrast, only two saw a decline the week before.

At the press conference, Sir Patrick said that while the Covid-19 outbreak in the UK is increasing rapidly, it is not as bad as it was during the first wave in the spring.

"What you can see is that the R has not returned to where it was and where it would be in an unbroken epidemic of this disease that would be about three," he explained.

“So it's gone up, the epidemic is growing, probably between four and seven percent a day, but the R hasn't gone up properly, and it's not because everyone has already taken action. & # 39;

SAGE's report showed the UK rate shifted slightly upwards, with the lower bound of the estimate going from 1.2 to 1.3, but the upper bound not changing in a week.

The R-rate in England was estimated at 1.3 to 1.6 on October 2, but the range has fallen to 1.2 to 1.4 since then.

Over the past week, the projected rate fell in London and the North East and Yorkshire, increased in the East, South East and North West, and remained unchanged in the South West and Midlands.

But SAGE warned that R-rates don't need to be increased for the outbreak to worsen, and any number above one means the virus is spreading quickly.

"SAGE is almost certain that the epidemic continues to grow exponentially across the country and is confident that transmission will not slow down," the group warned.

& # 39; There is no clear evidence that the course of the epidemic has changed over the past month.

“While the R-value stays above 1.0, infections will continue to grow exponentially. This is currently the case in every region of England and all are showing positive growth rates due to the increase in the number of new infections across the country. & # 39;

The scientific director pointed out that in the UK there are various estimates of the number of new infections occurring every day, ranging from around 23,000 as suggested by the ONS to as high as 74,000.

The projection of 74,000 cases per day was done by researchers from SPI-M, a subgroup of SAGE. Sir Patrick said it was probably the "high end" of the estimates.

Test-positive data from Public Health England shows that the percentage of tests performed with positive results increased in September and early October, bringing 7.1 percent of all tests performed are now positive - one in 14 swabs

Test-positive data from Public Health England shows that the percentage of tests performed with positive results increased in September and early October, bringing 7.1 percent of all tests performed are now positive – one in 14 swabs

The proportion of people who test positive for coronavirus has now increased in all regions of England. However, the data shows what Open University statistician Professor Kevin McConway has called "a spark of light in the dark," suggesting that the increase may slow in the north of East and Yorkshire & The Humber. However, it is too early to say whether this is a real trend or a quirk in statistics

The proportion of people who test positive for coronavirus has now increased in all regions of England. However, the data reveals what Open University statistician Professor Kevin McConway has called a "spark of light in the dark," suggesting that the increase may slow in the north of East and Yorkshire & The Humber. However, it is too early to say whether this is a real trend or a quirk in statistics

The ONS estimates that around 0.62 percent of England's population was infected with coronavirus for the week of October 2-8.

This is the highest estimate since the data began in late April, and a significant increase from 0.41 percent a week earlier (late October 1).

"In the last few weeks there has been clear evidence of an increase in the number of people who have tested positive for Covid-19," the report said. It added that rates were currently highest among older teenagers and young adults.

"Smaller increases can also be seen in all other age groups, with the exception of people aged 70 and over," said the ONS.

"There is clear evidence of differences in Covid-19 infection rates across regions of England, with the highest rates being in the North West, Yorkshire and Humber and the North East, all of which have risen sharply in recent weeks."

The results of the random testing program this week are based on results from 211,851 swab tests. A total of 1,062 tests were positive from 926 people in 723 households.

Using this data and applying it to the population as a whole – taking into account where the people who tested positive lived and how old they were, for example – researchers can estimate the true size of the outbreak in England.

The Ministry of Health's official testing program does not capture all infections as most people have no symptoms when infected with Covid-19.

In the week ending October 8th, an average of 12,781 people were diagnosed daily in England, which is the same time as the ONS study. This suggests that less than half of people (46 percent) who contract the virus actually get tested and get a positive result.

The ONS results are again "grim," said one scientist, but pointed out that there is preliminary evidence that the increase in infections is slowly slowing in the northeast, Yorkshire and the Humber.

"The very broad message is just as grim as it was in last week's ONS bulletin," said Professor Kevin McConway, professor of statistics at the Open University.

& # 39; The estimate of the number of people across the English population who would test positive for the virus has continued to increase with no clear evidence that the rate of increase is slowing.

"The same applies to the estimate of the daily number of new infections."

He added, “What is new is that there are signs in two of these regions (North East and Yorkshire & The Humber) that the ridges are flattening out.

“I believe the ONS is rightly cautious about interpreting these signs – there is a lot of statistical uncertainty in the numbers, and a flattening over just a week may not indicate a more permanent slowdown, let alone a significant downturn.

“But at least it's a spark of light in the dark. There is still no sign of such a slowdown in the northwest. This is also the case in the regions in the Midlands and the south, although infection rates there are still much lower than in the three northern regions. & # 39;

King & # 39; s College London's Covid Symptom Study produced results similar to the ONS report.

Based on 13,361 swab tests carried out between September 27 and October 11, the team said that during that time, 27,762 people across the UK developed symptomatic coronavirus every day. 21,642 of these daily infections were in England.

This does not include people who do not get symptoms, nor hospital or nursing home patients.

The numbers are higher than last week, but show a smaller increase than in September, increasing 27 percent in one week (UK) up from a 114 percent increase between September 17 and 24, albeit faster than the 11 percent in September the week before last.

Professor Tim Spector, the epidemiologist in charge of the project, confirmed that his project suggests that the rate of increase has slowed.

He said, “The data no longer shows the exponential increases that we saw a few weeks ago, but it clearly shows that new cases are continuing to increase.

& # 39; The Northwest still has the most falls and the fastest speeding up of cases, with doubling times of around 10 days. Slowing this rapid rise is a priority.

& # 39; Scotland, Wales, London and the Midlands are slowly increasing with a doubling time of 14-28 days, and the south and east of England remain relatively flat with five times fewer cases than the hardest hit regions.

"Our data is about seven to ten days ahead of other sources, which means it works like an early warning system while we wait for the data from the confirmed cases."

The weekly estimates of actual cases provide the clearest indication of the real UK coronavirus situation.

Health Department data shows wide variation in the rate of infection across the city of London, which has led MPs to complain that it is unfair to tar the whole city with the same brush

Health Department data shows wide variation in the rate of infection across the city of London, which has led MPs to complain that it is unfair to tar the whole city with the same brush

Coronavirus-positive tests in London have increased dramatically since early September, but changes in recent weeks suggest the rate of increase is slowing, with a 37 percent increase in the seven days to October 7, compared to nearly double Increase of 84 percent in the third week of September

Coronavirus-positive tests in London have increased dramatically since early September, but changes in recent weeks suggest the rate of increase is slowing, with a 37 percent increase in the seven days to October 7, compared to nearly double Increase of 84 percent in the third week of September

Hospital admissions in London rose 51 percent in the fortnight between September 25 and October 9, from an average of 33 per day to 50, half the rate of increase in the national measure for England

Hospital admissions in London rose 51 percent in the fortnight between September 25 and October 9, from an average of 33 per day to 50, half the rate of increase in the national measure for England

The death toll in London is low, averaging four a day, compared to 60 a day across England. However, the measures are always the last to rise and lag behind infections by about a month

The death toll in London is low, averaging four a day, compared to 60 a day across England. However, the measures are always the last to rise and lag behind infections by about a month

There are currently 77 ventilated patients in intensive care in London, down from a low of 10 on August 7th. For comparison, there are 135 ventilated patients in the North West, 116 in the North East and 468 across England

There are currently 77 ventilated patients in intensive care in London, down from a low of 10 on August 7th. For comparison, there are 135 ventilated patients in the North West, 116 in the North East and 468 across England

Almost a third of the UK councils saw a drop in COVID-19 infection rates in the past week

Almost a third of English councils saw a drop in coronavirus infections last week as a second breaker lockdown was called for and restrictions tightened across the country.

According to Public Health England's weekly monitoring report, 41 out of 149 councils saw their Covid-19 infection rates decline in the week ended October 11. For comparison: only two saw a decline the week before.

And only eight saw cases up more than 50 percent – 13 times less than the week before, when 109 local authorities saw major spikes, suggesting the second wave may be slowing.

The biggest drop has been in the city of Manchester, which the government is threatening with a third tier lockdown. Infections fell 22 percent from 557.8 to 433.8 cases per 100,000 people.

Southend-on-Sea saw the second largest drop, down 20.5 percent from 42.6 to 33.9 cases per 100,000 population. Slough, outside of London, came in third, with infections falling 19 percent from 86.9 to 70.2 per 100,000.

However, there has still been an increase in infections in many areas – although no area doubled the rate than the 52 areas that saw that increase last week.

Dorset saw the largest increase in infections, as the case rate rose 89 percent from 25.1 to 47.6 per 100,000. It was followed by Barnsley, where cases jumped 66.6 percent from 149.1 to 248.3 per 100,000, and Sutton, where cases jumped 61.9 percent from 36.8 to 59.6 per 100,000.

Daily cases are useful but only show the number of people experiencing symptoms of Covid-19. Scientists know that the majority of people who have the disease do not get noticeably ill, and many do not even notice it.

Hospital stays and deaths are the more worrying indicators, but these delays are weeks or even months behind fast-growing outbreaks, meaning they are not changing fast enough to provide a basis for action.

When deaths are noticeably higher, it is generally considered too late to act.

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, England's deputy chief medical officer, said this week that the number of cases now "burns in" hospital admissions and deaths that will be inevitable in the following weeks as a result of infections that have already occurred. How many will result from this remains to be seen.

Government advisors to SAGE were less optimistic about the data, saying in their R-Rate Forecast today, “SAGE is almost certain that the epidemic continues to grow exponentially across the country and is confident that transmission will not slow down.

& # 39; There is no clear evidence that the course of the epidemic has changed over the past month.

“While the R-value stays above 1.0, infections will continue to grow exponentially.

"This is currently the case in every region of England and all are showing positive growth rates due to the increase in the number of new infections across the country."

Some researchers have predicted that England will see more than 500 daily Covid-19 deaths before the end of the month.

Cambridge University scientists, whose estimates feed into SAGE's # 10 Advisory Panel, believe that in their latest projection on Oct. 9, 47,000 people were infected daily.

They believe the cases double in less than seven days, with a "significant proportion" of the cases being asymptomatic.

Although the numbers show that cases are still much lower than when the spring pandemic peaked, scientists have predicted that 500 people could die a day by October 29.

This is darker than the bold claims made by number 10's top two advisors, who warned the number could hit 200 by the end of the month.

Data from Public Health England (PHE) and NHS England on Covid-19 confirmed deaths and antibody prevalence, along with information from Google and the ONS on the mix between different age groups, will be used to predict the numbers.

Boris Johnson (pictured today) is preparing to put Greater Manchester on the government's tier three list, with or without Andy Burnham's approval

Mr Burnham said the government was making Manchester a "sacrificial lamb" by knocking on the toughest lockdown measures - so far only imposed on Liverpool

Boris Johnson (pictured today at # 10 left) is preparing to put Greater Manchester on the government's tier three list, with or without Andy Burnham's approval

DEATH & # 39; COULD MEET 500 PER DAY BY NOVEMBER & # 39;

Some researchers predict that England could see more than 500 daily Covid-19 deaths before the end of the month.

Cambridge University scientists, whose estimates feed into SAGE's # 10 Advisory Panel, believe that in their latest projection on Oct. 9, 47,000 people were infected daily.

They believe the cases double in less than seven days, with a "significant proportion" of the cases being asymptomatic.

Researchers at Cambridge University and PHE estimate that the current course of the outbreak in England could result in 500 deaths a day by November. But the government is already in the process of locking down the country to avoid this

Researchers at Cambridge University and PHE have estimated that the current course of the outbreak in England could result in 500 deaths a day by November. But the government is already in the process of locking down the country to avoid this

Although the numbers show that cases are still much lower than when the spring pandemic peaked, scientists have forecast 500 people could die a day by October 29.

This is darker than the bold claims made by number 10's top two advisors, who warned the number could hit 200 by the end of the month.

Boris Johnson today urged Greater Manchester officials to focus on saving lives as he welcomed an agreement with Lancashire to move into the toughest lockdown.

The Prime Minister, who will speak to the country again at a 4pm press conference, sent a sharp message to MPs for Mayor Andy Burnham and Tory & # 39; Red Wall & # 39; after a deal to extend Tier 3 Curbs had been announced.

Lancashire joins Liverpool as the only area in the top bracket, which means closing all bars and pubs that do not serve meals – as well as a ban on indoor and garden mixing. Thousands of venues are expected to close from midnight tonight. Casinos, betting shops, and auto boot sales have an additional 48 hours.

However, there has been anger in Liverpool that gyms and leisure centers have closed while they can stay open in Lancashire.

The Department of Health announced there would be a £ 12 million support package in Lancashire, plus more money for an economic recovery task force over the next six months. Local sources overall claimed it could be worth £ 30 million.

But the stalemate in Greater Manchester seems to be deepening, and the government is warning Burnham will not hold it up.

Mr Burnham reiterated his call for more financial support today after saying the north is being treated like a "sacrificial lamb" and a "canary in a coal mine" with experimental restrictions. He has claimed that if London – which enters Stage Two from tomorrow – were in the same position, there would be a nationwide rainfall.

But this afternoon, Mr Johnson spoke to reporters, warning that efforts to get the maximum money out of the government would not work.

"This is about saving lives," he said. “This is about us joining together locally and nationally to lower the R, to make these regional restrictions, this tiering system work and save lives.

"Everyone in Greater Manchester and in any area where it's still difficult should think about it."

He added: “I'd rather not impose things, I'd rather we can work something out with the local authorities and the Manchester Mayor.

"But it's up to the local executives to show the kind of leadership we've seen in Liverpool, Lancashire and London."

Mr Johnson is also facing increasing pressure from his own SAGE experts to trigger a "breaker" pressure across the country across the halfway point. One scientist even suggests that the process may have to be repeated over and over until a vaccine becomes available.

(tagsToTranslate) Dailymail (t) News (t) Coronavirus (t) UK Government News and Updates on the UK Cabinet (t) NHS (t) Downing Street