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Sir Patrick Vallance warns that Covid-19 will never go away


According to Sir Patrick Vallance, the coronavirus will likely never go away and a vaccine won't stop it entirely.

The senior scientific adviser, who spoke to members of the House of Lords today, said he thinks the virus will one day become like the flu and cause outbreaks every year.

He said ministers and experts should stop being too promising and be realistic about a vaccine's prospect and a vaccine's likely schedule.

A shock is unlikely to be completed before spring, said Sir Patrick, reiterating his previous warnings and those of his colleague Professor Chris Whitty that the Covid-19 battle will be lengthy.

At the same meeting, Sir Patrick said he still believes that a pandemic flu is the greatest threat to the UK and that his office has a second system in place in case another crisis breaks out before the coronavirus epidemic ends.

Sir Patrick Vallance appeared before the House of Lords National Security Strategy Committee today

In other comments from the Parliament session, Sir Patrick said:

  • A pandemic flu remains the UK's major biological threat. Animal-borne viruses and antibiotic resistance are also high on the list.
  • SAGE met more than ever during the pandemic with a total of 62 meetings and was never designed to do so much work.
  • The government's science bureau set up a second system in addition to Covid-19 to prepare for a second public health crisis because SAGE couldn't cope with it when something else came up.
  • SAGE advice gets too much attention as "advice" when it should always be viewed alongside economic consequences.
  • He denied that he and Professor Chris Whitty had been used as "human shields" by ministers trying to bring rules out into the open.

"I think we are unlikely to get a truly sterilizing vaccine – that is, something that will completely stop the infection – and it is likely that the disease will circulate and become endemic," Sir Patrick said at a meeting of the National Security Strategy Committee the Lords this afternoon.

"That is my best guess, and I think many SAGE employees believe this is a likely outcome."

“When management gets better, when you get a vaccination that reduces the risk of infection and the severity of the disease, or whatever the profile of the vaccines, it clearly looks more like annual flu than anything else.

"That could be the direction we end up going."

An endemic virus is one that is constantly circulating and never completely disappears.

Examples of diseases caused by endemic viruses include colds, flu, HIV, chicken pox, cold sores, and malaria.

While they have any treatments or ways to keep people safe from being caught, the viruses cannot be completely eradicated because they are already so widespread.

Flu vaccines, for example, aren't perfect, but they do reduce the risk of getting seriously ill if they contract the virus.

The flu is so difficult to control because the virus mutates quickly – sometimes once a year or more – which means protection from previous vaccines doesn't last long.

Sir Patrick said this might happen to Covid-19 but added a glimmer of hope that the coronavirus isn't mutating nearly as quickly. This increases the chances that people might be able to develop long-term immunity to it.

Official data shows Nottingham, Newcastle, Sheffield and Manchester are among the cities where cases fell after rising in late September when thousands of students and staff returned to universities

Official data shows Nottingham, Newcastle, Sheffield and Manchester are among the cities where cases fell after rising in late September when thousands of students and staff returned to universities

"I think we are unlikely to get a really sterilizing vaccine – i.e. something that will stop the infection completely," Sir Patrick told the House of Lords today. Pictured: Hundreds of thousands of doses of a possible Covid-19 vaccine were produced by a facility in Belgium (file image).

Labor MP Yasmin Qureshi, who represents Bolton South East in Greater Manchester, was hospitalized with pneumonia after testing positive for coronavirus

Labor MP Yasmin Qureshi, who represents Bolton South East in Greater Manchester, was hospitalized with pneumonia after testing positive for coronavirus

THE OTHER COVID-19 DEATH FEE: 26,000 MORE DEATHS THAN MARCH IN PRIVATE HOUSES SINCE MARCH

At least 26,000 people have died at home during the coronavirus pandemic in England and Wales because they may or may not have been able to go to hospital, according to official statistics.

Between March 20, the week of the lockdown, and September 11, a total of 86,000 people died in private homes rather than hospitals or nursing homes, a report by the Bureau of National Statistics revealed today. The number, which climbs 43.6 percent on average for this time of year, includes deaths of all kinds, with Covid-19 only associated with 3.3 percent.

The deaths in private homes have remained “well above average” since March. However, in hospitals and nursing homes, deaths fell below average in June after the first wave of Covid-19 passed. It has now risen slightly in nursing homes, but remains low in hospitals. Statisticians said the change was a "redistribution" in which people died.

Experts aren't sure whether the statistics are necessarily bad – many people prefer to die at home rather than in hospital – but warn that people may have missed proper end-of-life care, which includes pain medication, and that some of the People possibly doing this were actually saved when they were in a hospital.

Conservative MPs said today the numbers clearly exposed the "other coronavirus death toll" and called on number 10 to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of decisions to shut down the economy and suppress Covid-19 to kill thousands more Protecting from death is lost under severe restrictions that can result in patients skipping the search for NHS care.

However, it is unlikely that a vaccine will come in 2020.

"Perhaps you can tell from the way I've spoken a lot of times that I don't think we should over-promise," he said.

"I think it's very important that we give a realistic picture of where things are."

He added, "I realized by January (I thought it was) unlikely that we would have vaccines for widespread use in the community until at least spring next year."

Sir Patrick stated that even this rate of development of a vaccine is "exceptional".

He said, “If you think about the history of vaccines, the average time it takes to create a vaccine from scratch is about 10 years, and this has never been done in less than about five years, and it has been done before very fast.

& # 39; We're in an exceptional position now with at least eight vaccines in pretty large clinical trials around the world, some of which will be read out from their final stage clinical trials over the next few months for us to know I think in the next few months we have vaccines that really protect, and how long they protect. & # 39;

Sir Patrick's warning came as the UK recorded another 18,804 Covid-19 cases and 80 deaths as both infections and deaths continue to creep up.

Health ministry statistics show the daily number of infections rose 34.6 percent in a week, compared to 13,972 cases reported last Monday. However, the magnitude of the second wave is still a long way from the darkest days of spring when at least 100,000 Britons infected the virus every day.

Government data also shows deaths have risen again compared to the 50 laboratory-confirmed deaths reported last week. Monday is always hit by a delay in recording, which means dozens of victims won't be added to the list until later in the week.

And UK coronavirus-related hospital admissions rose to 988 on October 15, with the latest daily numbers available, up from 676 last Monday. For comparison: they had fallen below 100 in the summer and were at 3,500 in late March and early April.

Wales today announced a breaker lockdown that would require bars, restaurants and non-essential shops to close for two weeks. Labor first minister Mark Drakeford said the draconian move would take effect from 6pm on Friday, arguing that failure to act now would mean "more people will die".

Tories criticized the draconian move, claiming it had sentenced Wales to an endless cycle of two-week bans and called the "fire breaker" a "blunt instrument". They also beat up Mr. Drakeford, accusing him of "small man syndrome".

However, the move will put pressure on Boris Johnson, who despite the support of his own SAGE experts, has desperately opposed the option in England. Northern Ireland and Scotland have already launched their own national spike raids, but the Prime Minister has maintained his plan for local "levels".

The continued surge in confirmed infections over the past 24 hours means the UK has 17,649 infections a day on average for seven days, up 21 percent from 14,588 last Monday.

The country's weekly infection rate is estimated at around 185 cases per 100,000 people, although this varies widely from region to region. The outbreak in England is currently centered in the north and London, while in Scotland cases have risen above the central belt.

In hospitals in England, the number of coronavirus patients has increased by 1,500 to 4,974 in one week. And there were 100 more patients in mechanical ventilation beds.

The government processed 306,000 coronavirus swabs in 24 hours, an 18 percent increase over the past seven days.

However, this is still nearly 200,000 less than Health Secretary Matt Hancock's goal of 500,000 tests a day by the end of October – ministers have less than two weeks to meet.

Separate government data suggests that at least 26,000 more people than usual have died at home today during the coronavirus pandemic in England and Wales, possibly because they could not or did not want to go to the hospital.

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, a total of 86,000 people died in private homes rather than hospitals or nursing homes between March 20, the week of the lockdown, and September 11.

The number, which climbs 43.6 percent on average for this time of year, includes deaths of all kinds, with Covid-19 only associated with 3.3 percent.

WALES ANNOUNCE A CIRCUIT BREAKER LOCKDOWN

First Minister Mark Drakeford said the draconian move will take effect from 6 p.m. on Friday to combat a surge in the coronavirus

First Minister Mark Drakeford said the draconian move will take effect from 6 p.m. on Friday to combat a surge in coronavirus

Wales today announced a lockout on the circuit breaker. Bars, restaurants and non-essential shops have to be closed for two weeks.

First Minister Mark Drakeford said the draconian move will take effect from 6 p.m. on Friday to combat a surge in the coronavirus.

Describing the measures as a "fire breaker", he warned that failure to act now would mean "more people will die".

He said everyone in Wales is instructed to stay home unless they are a critical worker or have no choice of going to work. Households are prohibited from mixing indoors or outdoors, and while there is no limit to exercise, it must "start and end at home".

Elementary schools will reopen after halftime next week, Labor Mr Drakeford told a press conference, but secondary schools will not reopen until years seven and eight and for students taking exams.

The "sharp and deep" lockdown – reflecting Sir Keir Starmer's national demands – ends November 9, wiping out Halloween and Bonfire Night, though events will take place on Remembrance Sunday on November 8th.

The move has been criticized by Welsh Tories, who said it would doom Wales to an endless cycle of two-week bans, while Conservative MPs in Westminster said the "fire breaker" was a "blunt instrument" and "the closure of all of Wales was disproportionate. " the risk in some parts of the country ”.

They also beat up Mr. Drakeford, accusing him of "small man syndrome".

Home deaths were almost double the five-year average between April 3 and May 7, when Britain was overwhelmed by the virus. Since March they have remained “well above average”.

However, in hospitals and nursing homes, deaths fell below average in June after the first wave of Covid-19 passed.

It has now risen slightly in nursing homes, but remains low in hospitals. Statisticians said the change was a "redistribution" in which people were dying.

Heart disease was the leading cause of death, followed by cancer and dementia – it is normal for these to be the main culprit.

Experts aren't sure if the statistics are necessarily bad – many people prefer to die at home rather than in hospital – but warn that people have missed proper end-of-life care, which includes pain medication, and that some people may have do were actually saved when they were in a hospital.

Conservative MPs said today the numbers exposed the "other coronavirus death toll" and called for number 10 to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of lockdown measures.

You need to figure out how to balance the rules to keep people safe from Covid-19 but not stop patients from getting NHS care, which means they will die of other diseases.

Fiona Carragher, director of research and influencing at the Alzheimer's Society, said the death toll from dementia revealed the effects of isolation, fear of the coronavirus, and the shutdown of health and social services.

It comes as Wales today announced a breaker lockdown – bars, restaurants and non-essential shops will have to close for two weeks.

First Minister Mark Drakeford said the draconian move will take effect from 6 p.m. on Friday to combat a surge in the coronavirus. Describing the measures as a "fire breaker", he warned that failure to act now would mean "more people will die".

He said everyone in Wales is instructed to stay home unless they are a critical worker or have no choice of going to work.

Households are prohibited from mixing indoors or outdoors, and while there is no limit to exercise, it must "start and end at home".

Elementary schools will reopen after halftime next week, Labor Mr. Drakeford told a press conference, but secondary schools will not reopen until years seven and eight and for students taking exams.

The "sharp and deep" lockdown – reflecting Sir Keir Starmer's national demands – ends November 9, wiping out Halloween and Bonfire Night, though events will take place on Remembrance Sunday on November 8.

The move has been criticized by Welsh Tories, who said it would doom Wales to an endless cycle of two-week lockdowns while Conservative MPs in Westminster said the "fire breaker" was a "blunt instrument" and "the closure of all of Wales was disproportionate. " the risk in some parts of the country ”.

They also beat Mr. Drakeford and accused him of "small man syndrome". One MP told MailOnline, "They have someone who is the head of what is much smaller than the West Midlands but where they have a mayor, Wales." has a first minister.

MANCHESTER'S HOSPITALS WILL BE SURVEILLANCE UNTIL OCTOBER 28, GOVERNMENT WARNING

Official data shows that the seven-day rolling average of coronavirus cases in Greater Manchester has declined in recent days

Official data shows that the seven-day rolling average of coronavirus cases in Greater Manchester has declined in recent days

Greater Manchester hospitals are well on their way to being overwhelmed by Oct. 28 unless the coronavirus outbreak is brought under control, the government warned today.

The region could be using all of its ICU capacity by that date, and demand will surpass the previous peak by November 2nd, according to the latest estimates. Even the "surge" fallback is exceeded four days later.

Downing Street highlighted the dire assessment, based on the SPI-M group's "best-case" scenario, whereby cases double every fortnight, while Mayor Andy Burnham and local MPs argue fiercely over whether to lock down the third stage is to be imposed.

Ministers have given Mr Burnham and mutinous MPs an ultimatum that they must reach an agreement today to lock the third stage – or that tomorrow they will be forced to be forced into the tougher curbs.

Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick warned the talks had been "too long" and urged the region to accept a funding package worth up to £ 100 million.

Bargaining with Nottingham and Yorkshire continues to move to Tier 3, which could add seven million more people to heightened restrictions.

However, along with the war of words with Mr Burnham and Labor, there is also a risk that the Conservative party will be torn apart – as local MPs, including 1922 committee chairman Sir Graham Brady, oppose the need for extreme restrictions.

There was a brutal response from Red Wall MPs to Tory WhatsApp groups after Tier One colleagues sent a letter to Mr Burnham asking him to engage with the government's regional approach to other areas. Pain "to spare.

The intervention – which many believe was staged by Downing Street – sparked angry private disputes over an “all-round manhole,” with one MP reportedly inciting another: “They just want a promotion and like to throw colleagues together Bus to get there. & # 39;

“He tries to show that he is equal to Boris Johnson. He wants to be considered equal, but is not. "

Mr Drakeford said it was not clear if the "breaker" had worked by November 9, but he insisted that it would be ready by then.

"During these two weeks there will be no meetings with people you don't live with indoors or outdoors," Drakeford said.

"There will continue to be an exemption for single adults and single parents will still be able to join a household for support."

Mr Drakeford said an additional economic resilience fund of nearly £ 300 million has been created to support businesses.

Each business affected by the small business tax relief will receive a payment of £ 1,000.

Mr Drakeford admitted that the benefits of the policy could only be seen "in the following weeks".

On other developments, the government warned today that Greater Manchester hospitals are well on their way to being overwhelmed by Oct. 28 unless the coronavirus outbreak is brought under control.

The region could be using all of its ICU capacity by that date, and demand will surpass the previous peak by November 2nd, according to the latest estimates. Even the "surge" fallback is exceeded four days later.

Downing Street highlighted the dire assessment, based on the SPI-M group's "best-case" scenario, whereby cases double every fortnight, while Mayor Andy Burnham and local MPs argue violently over whether to lock down the third stage is to be imposed.

Ministers have given Mr Burnham and mutinous MPs an ultimatum that they must reach an agreement today to lock the third stage – or that tomorrow they will be forced to be forced into the tougher curbs.

Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick warned the talks had been "too long" and urged the region to accept a funding package worth up to £ 100 million.

Bargaining with Nottingham and Yorkshire continues to move to Tier 3, which could add seven million more people to heightened restrictions.

However, along with the war of words with Mr Burnham and Labor, there is also a risk that the Conservative party will be torn apart – as local MPs, including 1922 committee chairman Sir Graham Brady, oppose the need for extreme restrictions.

There was a brutal response from Red Wall MPs to Tory WhatsApp groups after Tier One colleagues sent a letter to Mr Burnham asking him to engage with the government's regional approach to other areas. Pain "to spare.

The intervention – which many believe was staged by Downing Street – sparked angry private disputes over an “all-round manhole,” with one MP reportedly inciting another: “They just want a promotion and like to throw colleagues together Bus to get there. & # 39;

In one round of interviews this morning, Mr. Jenrick said, “I think it is very clear that now that after we have been discussing this for over a week, this needs to be finalized.

“I think everyone in Greater Manchester would agree.

"So I hope that today or tomorrow we will come to a result one way or another."

But Mr Burnham still signaled defiance today, telling journalists: "It's not about the size of the check, it's about protecting poorly paid workers, the self-employed and companies."

The Liverpool City area received £ 30m for helping local businesses when it entered tier three, along with £ 14m for additional contact tracing capacity and £ 7m for tier two.

Adjusting the overall package for the larger Manchester population would be worth around £ 95 million.

Although Mr Burnham has urged that 80 percent instead of two-thirds of the vacation be paid for by the government, this is being done centrally and separately from the bailouts.

Government projections suggested that Manchester hospitals may be overwhelmed.

"Cases in Greater Manchester continue to increase," said the Prime Minister's official spokesman.

"In the age groups over 60, cases have tripled in the last 15 days with complete data. On September 27, there were 89 cases per 100,000, compared with 282 per 100,000 on October 12." Hospital admissions in Greater Manchester double every nine days. & # 39;

Race for a coronavirus vaccine: Nine candidates in the final stages of clinical trials

As scientists race to develop a coronavirus vaccine to bring the world back to normal, MailOnline has taken a look at the potential candidates.

The vaccination trials were canceled on Wednesday, but they may be ready by the end of this year

The vaccination trials were canceled on Wednesday, but they may be ready later this year

The Oxford vaccine

When will it be done?: Late 2020 / early 2021. Although the trials were suspended on Wednesday, the developers and number 10 remain confident that the vaccine could be ready for use either by the end of this year or early next year. They say that a pause in studies is common, and that their development was also stopped in July after a suspected side effect was noted.

How does it work?: The vaccine exposes participants to a weakened cold adenovirus, on the surface of which proteins of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 are bound. The idea is that exposure allows the immune system to build an immune response, which means that if they are infected with the real virus, they are protected.

Has Britain secured cans ?: Yes, 100 million. The US along with several other countries have received an additional 300 million doses. These are rolled out fairly.

How much is it?: AstraZeneca, which is developing the vaccine with Oxford University, has announced that it won't benefit from it, but it may earn additional royalties if the coronavirus becomes an endemic infection like the flu. The US has spent $ 1.2 billion (£ 930 million) securing cans, which means they're worth $ 4 (£ 3.10) each.

Biontech, Germany

The Biontech vaccine could be ready this year

The Biontech vaccine could be ready this year

When will it be done?: At the end of this year, say researchers. The vaccine is being developed by a German company in collaboration with the American drug manufacturer Pfizer. It is recruiting 30,000 volunteers for its phase 3 studies.

How does it work?: This is an RNA vaccine, a type that has never been approved by regulators before. The participants are injected with a fragment of genetic material from the coronavirus. This exposes your immune system to a weakened version of the virus and hopefully triggers a response that will protect you from the real virus.

Has Britain secured cans ?: Yes, 30 million cans. The US has also ordered 100 million cans.

Price?: The US is paying $ 2 billion (£ 1.5 billion) for their cans, or about $ 20 (£ 15) per batch.

Moderna, USA

The Moderna vaccine was tested in humans

The Moderna vaccine was tested in humans

When will it be done?: End of this year or next. The vaccine has recruited 20,000 participants for its third stage studies. If no potential side effects are observed, a second test will be done in more patients over the next month. This means it could be available by the end of 2020.

How does it work?: This is an RNA-based vaccine similar to the one developed by Biontech.

Has Britain secured cans ?: The UK task force has reportedly failed to secure doses of this vaccine.

How much is it?: The US has ordered 100 million cans priced at $ 1.5 billion (£ 1.1 billion). This means a bump will cost $ 32 (£ 25).

Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline, UK and France

Sanofi vaccine will not be available this year

Sanofi vaccine will not be available this year

When will it be done?: First half of 2021. The vaccine entered phase two clinical trials in 440 adults in September. It will enter the third phase of studies in December this year. There may be setbacks along the way, which means the vaccine may take longer to develop.

How does it work?: Participants will be injected with DNA that codes for the antigens of the coronavirus and a chemical that makes it more effective. Hopefully this will trigger an immune response.

Has Britain secured cans ?: Yes. Up to 60 million will be delivered if the vaccine is shown to work.

How much is it?: Unknown. This information was not provided.

Sputnik V, Russia

Sputnik V is safe, according to the Kremlin, but has been criticized by scientists

Sputnik V is safe, according to the Kremlin, but has been criticized by scientists

When will it be done?: "Shortly". The Russian Medical Research Institute and the Russian Defense Ministry developed this vaccine. However, it has received serious criticism both inside and outside Russia as the results of its human trials have yet to be published. No major human studies have been completed either. The researchers started just one study with 40,000 volunteers on Aug. 26. Scientists say the vaccine has been rushed without proper controls and could pose a risk to those who take it. The Kremlin began recruiting volunteers for the vaccine this week after making an initial batch, according to TASS news agency.

How does it work?: The Russian vaccine transports a piece of the coronavirus genetic code into a participant via another virus. Hopefully this will provoke an immune response.

Has Britain secured cans ?: No. Countries that are slated to test the vaccine include Mexico, which has received 32 million doses, and Kazakhstan, which is said to be buying two million.

How much is it?: The price of the vaccine has yet to be announced.

Sinovac, China

It is not clear when the Sinovac vaccine will be available

It is not clear when the Sinovac vaccine will be available

When will it be done?: Unknown. The vaccine was final-stage tested in Brazil in July and in Indonesia in August. The results show that younger and medium-sized people produced antibodies, but older people had a weaker immune response. The vaccine was reportedly approved for limited emergency use in July, although it is apparently still being tested. It has been reported to be in second place after the Oxford vaccine, but its full test results are yet to be released. It is one of four vaccine candidates under development in China.

How does it work?: This involves injecting patients with an inactivated form of the virus, which prompts their immune system to develop a response.

Has Britain secured cans ?: Unknown. No cans were reportedly secured.

How much is it?: China has yet to publish this information.

As infection rates are falling in major cities across England – as official data shows, the Covid-19 outbreak in Greater Manchester is already slowing

ByConnor Boyd health reporter for Mailonline

Numbers show coronavirus infections are now declining in some of England's largest cities – though Health Secretary Matt Hancock is threatening tonight to put many of them in the toughest lockdown class.

Official data shows Nottingham, Newcastle, Sheffield and Manchester are among the cities where cases fell after rising in late September when thousands of students and staff returned to universities.

Infection rates in all four cities have been falling steadily for several days, suggesting that they are showing a consistent downward trend rather than a temporary decline. Still, Mr Hancock warned tonight that much of the north of England was heading for a third stage lockdown.

In the House of Commons, the Minister of Health confirmed that talks with local executives in South and West Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire, North East and Teesside about joining Liverpool and Lancashire had started in close quarters.

Die Regierung war auch tagelang in erbitterte Auseinandersetzungen mit lokalen Führern in Greater Manchester verwickelt, um die 2,8 Millionen Menschen dort in die „Stufe Drei“ zu bringen, in der Pubs und Fitnessstudios wieder geschlossen und jegliche soziale Vermischung in Innenräumen und in privaten Gärten verboten würde.

Herr Hancock sagte gegenüber den Abgeordneten: „Nach der erfolgreichen Einführung von Maßnahmen in Liverpool und Lancashire werden die Gespräche heute Nachmittag unter der Leitung des Gemeindesekretärs mit Greater Manchester fortgesetzt. Diese Woche sind weitere Gespräche mit South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire und dem Nordosten geplant und Teesside. & # 39;

Dies geschieht trotz offizieller Zahlen, die darauf hindeuten, dass in vielen Städten bereits Infektionen auf dem Weg sind, die von den wirtschaftlich lähmenden Maßnahmen betroffen wären.

In Nottingham erreichte die rollierende wöchentliche Fallrate in den sieben Tagen bis zum 8. Oktober einen Höchststand von 1.001,2 pro 100.000 Einwohner – der höchste in England -, aber seitdem ist die Zahl gesunken und liegt derzeit bei 787,6.

Die aktuelle Rate in Manchester liegt bei 432,5, nachdem sie in den sieben Tagen bis zum 3. Oktober einen Höchststand von 583,5 erreicht hatte, während sie in Sheffield bei 396,7 lag, nach einem Höchststand von 500,3 in der Woche bis zum 7. Oktober. Die Rate in Newcastle liegt bei 371,5, verglichen mit 553,8 in der gleiches Intervall.

Obwohl in einigen Großstädten des Landes Infektionen auftreten, beginnen die Städte und Bezirke um sie herum einen starken Anstieg zu verzeichnen, was die Bereitschaft der Regierung erklären könnte, in mehr Gebieten zu sperren.

Experten haben der Regierung jedoch zuvor vorgeworfen, mit lokalen Sperren „die Waffe zu springen“ und den zuvor verhängten Maßnahmen nicht genügend Zeit zu geben, um wirksam zu werden.

Die derzeitige Rate in Manchester liegt bei 432,5, nachdem sie in den sieben Tagen bis zum 3. Oktober einen Höchststand von 583,5 erreicht hatte, was Zweifel daran aufkommen lässt, ob die Pläne der Minister, die härtesten Sperrmaßnahmen dort durchzusetzen, wirklich gerechtfertigt sind

Die derzeitige Rate in Manchester liegt bei 432,5, nachdem sie in den sieben Tagen bis zum 3. Oktober einen Höchststand von 583,5 erreicht hatte, was Zweifel daran aufkommen lässt, ob die Pläne der Minister, die härtesten Sperrmaßnahmen dort durchzusetzen, wirklich gerechtfertigt sind

In Nottingham erreichte die rollierende wöchentliche Fallrate in den sieben Tagen bis zum 8. Oktober einen Höchststand von 1.001,2 pro 100.000 Einwohner - der höchste in England -, aber seitdem ist die Zahl gesunken und liegt derzeit bei 787,6

In Nottingham erreichte die rollierende wöchentliche Fallrate in den sieben Tagen bis zum 8. Oktober einen Höchststand von 1.001,2 pro 100.000 Einwohner – der höchste in England -, aber seitdem ist die Zahl gesunken und liegt derzeit bei 787,6

Die Zahlen zeigen, dass Sheffields Rate 396,7 beträgt, nach einem Höchststand von 500,3 in den sieben Tagen bis zum 7. Oktober

Die Zahlen zeigen, dass Sheffields Rate 396,7 beträgt, nach einem Höchststand von 500,3 in den sieben Tagen bis zum 7. Oktober

Die Rate in Newcastle liegt bei 371,5 nach 553,8 im gleichen Zeitraum. Es gab Befürchtungen, dass die Stadt Anfang dieses Monats vor einer Sperrung der dritten Stufe stehen könnte, als die Fälle sich zu drehen begannen

Die Rate in Newcastle liegt bei 371,5 nach 553,8 im gleichen Zeitraum. Es gab Befürchtungen, dass die Stadt Anfang dieses Monats vor einer Sperrung der dritten Stufe stehen könnte, als die Fälle sich zu drehen begannen

Bei anderen Entwicklungen in der Coronavirus-Krise:

  • Großbritannien hat heute weitere 18.804 Coronavirus-Fälle registriert, ein Anstieg von 34,6 Prozent gegenüber dem vergangenen Montag. The number of deaths is 80, 60 percent higher than a week ago;
  • Wales has confirmed that there will be a circuit breaker lockdown, making England the only British nation not to impose any form of politics.
  • Englands stellvertretender Chefarzt hat gefordert, die Ausgangssperre für die Kneipe um 22 Uhr auf 18 Uhr vorzuverlegen
  • A top government advisor said there is 'light at the end of the tunnel' as he predicts a Covid-19 vaccine will be ready by the end of March 2021

A surge in infections in the country's largest cities coincided with thousands of students and staff returning to universities at the end of September, which undoubtedly helped exacerbate the virus's spread.

The most high-profile outbreak came at Manchester Metropolitan University, where around 1,500 students suspected of having Covid-19 had to self-isolate and not leave their accommodation for a fortnight.

BORIS WARNS GREATER MANCHESTER'S ICU UNITS WILL BE OVERWHELMED BY OCT 28

Greater Manchester's hospitals are on track to be overwhelmed by October 28 unless the coronavirus outbreak is brought under control, the government warned today.

The region could use up all its intensive care capacity by that date, and demand will pass the previous peak by November 2, according to the latest estimates. Even the 'surge' fallback will be overrun four days later than that.

Downing Street highlighted the grim assessment, based on the SPI-M group's 'best case' scenario that cases are doubling every 14 days, amid bitter wrangling with mayor Andy Burnham and local MPs over whether to impose 'Tier Three' lockdown.

Ministers have sent an ultimatum to Mr Burnham and mutinous MPs that they must do a deal on Tier Three lockdown today – or face being forced into the tougher curbs as early as tomorrow.

Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick warned the talks had been "too long" and urged the region to accept a funding package worth up to £ 100 million.

Haggling is also continuing with Nottingham and Yorkshire over the possibility of shifting to Tier Three, which could put a total of seven million more people under heightened restrictions.

However, along with the war of words with Mr Burnham and Labor, there is also a risk that the Conservative party will be torn apart – as local MPs, including 1922 committee chairman Sir Graham Brady, oppose the need for extreme restrictions.

There was a brutal response from Red Wall MPs to Tory WhatsApp groups after Tier One colleagues sent a letter to Mr Burnham asking him to engage with the government's regional approach to other areas. Pain "to spare.

The intervention – which many believe was staged by Downing Street – sparked angry private disputes over an “all-round manhole,” with one MP reportedly inciting another: “They just want a promotion and like to throw colleagues together Bus to get there. & # 39;

Other cities with large student populations, including Exeter, Leeds and Liverpool – Britain's first 'Tier Three' lockdown city – have also seen case rates fall in recent days.

The figures, from Public Health England, suggest the rapid spread of Covid-19 among areas with a high density of student accommodation appears to have halted.

By contrast the places in England recording the biggest growth in case rates are no longer big cities but a mixture of towns and suburbs.

Areas with the largest week-on-week increase in the latest seven-day rates include Gedling, north-east of Nottingham (up from 216.3 to 385.9); Blackburn with Darwen (up from 357.4 to 482.3); Barnsley (up from 225.2 to 348.8); and Blackpool (up from 220.9 to 326.3).

The largely rural borough of Charnwood in Leicestershire, which includes the town of Loughborough – home of Loughborough University – has seen its rate rise from 153.9 to 288.9.

One city – Bristol – has seen a notable jump in the latest figures, but its rate is still far below those recorded by the likes of Nottingham and Manchester in recent weeks, standing at 205.9 up from 99.9.

Overall the numbers suggest the geographical hotspots for Covid-19 in England may have tilted away from big cities and towards built-up areas that do not necessarily have densely-housed student populations – and that the virus is now being spread increasingly through community infections rather than circulating largely within student accommodation.

It comes as Manchester's Mayor Andy Burnham has been sent an ultimatum by Government ministers saying he must agree to a Tier Three lockdown today after days of wrangling.

The Labour mayor of the region has so far refused to accept the tightest lockdown rules for his residents, arguing that they will devastate local businesses and that they are being unfairly imposed in the North of England.

But he now faces a decision between bringing them in on his own terms of having Downing Street force a lockdown on the area, which includes Manchester city, Oldham, Bolton, Trafford, Bury, Salford, Tameside, Stockport, Rochdale and Wigan.

The mayor and local MPs say there is no evidence going into the strictest lockdown would actually bring down cases and point to data which appears to suggest the outbreak in Greater Manchester is slowing, as evidence not to shut down.

Manchester city is the only area in Greater Manchester seeing daily infections drop, but outbreaks in Trafford, Stockport and Oldham have also stabilised, Public Health England figures. And the rate at which cases are rising in the other nine boroughs has began to decelerate.

For example, Bury was reporting an average 108 cases per day by October 12, up from 97 daily cases the week prior, an increase of 11 per cent. This is down significantly from the rise between September 28 and October 5, when daily cases jumped 33 per cent from 73 to 97.

A similar trend has played out in the other boroughs. In Wigan, the rolling seven day average number of daily cases is 205 – which is up nine per cent compared the seven days prior. For comparison, this figure almost doubled from September 28, when it was 99.3, to October 5's 188.

Rochdale's is currently recording 149 cases per day, up by 16 per cent the week before, when it was 128. The week-on-week rise then was much smaller than the increase between September 28 and October 5, when daily cases jumped 59 per cent from 86 to 128.

Although case numbers are still up week on week – and way above the national average in every borough – they are being used as evidence not to go into a Tier Three lockdown.

Official data shows the rolling seven day average of coronavirus cases in Greater Manchester has been falling in recent days

Official data shows the rolling seven day average of coronavirus cases in Greater Manchester has been falling in recent days

But the government warned today that Greater Manchester's hospitals are on track to be overwhelmed by October 28 unless the coronavirus outbreak is brought under control quicker.

The region could use up all its intensive care capacity by that date, and demand will pass the previous peak by November 2, according to the latest estimates. Even the 'surge' fallback will be overrun four days later than that.

Downing Street highlighted the grim assessment, based on the SPI-M group's 'best case' scenario that cases are doubling every 14 days.

Ministers have sent an ultimatum to Mr Burnham and mutinous MPs that they must do a deal on Tier Three lockdown today – or face being forced into the tougher curbs as early as tomorrow.

Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick warned the talks had been "too long" and urged the region to accept a funding package worth up to £ 100 million.

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