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Other local locks are "just DAYS away," PHE sources claim


Localized Leicester-style locks are "only a few days away" from imposing after cases have increased in dozens of cities over the past week, public health officials said today.

Bradford, Doncaster and Barnsley are said to be high on the government's list of potential Covid hotspots as the virus remains widespread in Yorkshire.

Former government scientific advisor, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, said these cities were "clearly worrying" and suggested that they could be next in line to roll back draconian curbs.

Parts of Kent, north-west England and several London boroughs are also under investigation after a number of cases in the past week.

Public Health England and sources from the Department of Health informed Sky News that they had planned 36 Covid hospots in England where local blocks could be "only a few days away".

However, there has been confusion over the actual infection rates in certain regions of England, as the data that is made available to the public and the data known within the government are very different.

It has also emerged today that one in seven children in Leicester tested positive for Covid-19 – three times the average rate across England.

Leicester had to block again after the city of 330,000 residents made up 10 percent of the 6,000 positive cases in the country last week.

Public Health England data show that the infection rate in Leicester is twice that in the second most affected city, Bradford

Former government research advisor, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, said Bradford and Doncaster were "clearly worrying" given that Yorkshire cities have some of the most per capita cases in the country

Former government research advisor, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, said Bradford and Doncaster were "clearly worrying" given that Yorkshire cities have some of the most per capita cases in the country

He told BBC Radio 4 Today this morning: “It is absolutely inevitable that we will do this (see more blocks). We are loosening the blocking rules and that means that contacts among the population are increasing.

“This is a variable process that will vary from place to place. This means that there are too many contacts in some places and we receive transmission clusters. It is crucial that we recognize this early and take the necessary measures to reduce the transmission on site again. & # 39;

When asked whether Bradford and Doncaster could be blocked next, Professor Ferguson said, “These are areas that are not as high as in Leicester, but they have some of the highest cases per 100,000 people.

Data compiled by Public Health England (PHE) shows that Havering and Wiltshire saw the largest increase in confirmed Covid-19 infections over the week (300 percent). In comparison, Leicester saw a 5 percent increase in cases - from 39 cases registered between June 13th and 19th to 41 in the following seven days

Data compiled by Public Health England (PHE) shows that Havering and Wiltshire saw the largest increase in confirmed Covid-19 infections over the week (300 percent). In comparison, Leicester saw a 5 percent increase in cases – from 39 cases registered between June 13th and 19th to 41 in the following seven days

Pictured: The restricted area in Leicester, where some Brits are locked while their neighbors are not

The 36 areas at risk in England

Havering

Wiltshire

Wandsworth

Gloucestershire

Ealing

Hammersmith and Fulham

Doncaster

Plymouth

Bark and Dagenham

Westminster

Milton Keynes

Wakefield

Haringey

Medway

Hounslow

Brent

harrow

Kensington and Chelsea

swamp

Suffolk

Redbridge

Sandwell

Enfield

Tower hamlet

York

Sunderland

Wigan

Windsor and Maidenhead

Leicester

Gateshead

Isle of Wight

Richmond upon Thames

Portsmouth

Redcar and Cleveland

Derbyshire

Walsall

In Scotland, Dumfries & Galloway is reported to have increased in some cases.

& # 39; You are clearly concerned. I think a number of measures are being introduced in these areas to track down transmissions. However, whether we need further action depends on whether we can reduce the number of cases.

"A second national wave is a cluster of small outbreaks like Leicester, which has merged across the country. We want to avoid that by extinguishing those small outbreaks when it's just sparks when we don't see a big national surge." Case numbers. & # 39;

Professor Ferguson said Britain was too slow to speed up the tests, which caused the country to catch up with the epidemic.

He added: "I think, without a doubt, we didn't start up the tests fast enough, so in late February and early March we were relatively blind to how much infection has occurred in the community in this country from Spain, Italy and other countries.

“Only when we started monitoring the hospital did we get a good grip on it, and from that point on we acted very quickly, it was just a little bit too late.

& # 39; We were one of the most affected countries in Europe, while we introduced blocking measures around the same time as the European countries. A little later than in some other countries, the epidemic had progressed.

“We are one of the worst affected European countries per 100,000 inhabitants. I would say before we make international comparisons, keep in mind that we are very early in this pandemic.

"Lessons can be learned from what has happened in the UK so far, but I would rather focus on the next six months before I look back seriously."

Other scientists and public health officials have warned of more localized locks after clusters of the virus have continued to appear in parts of Kent, London, and Scotland.

Infections in the Medway, Hammersmith and Fulham and Ealing boroughs in West London and Lanarkshire and Dumfries & Galloway in Scotland have increased.

The numbers show that 10 or more weekly infections occurred in these areas between June 18 and 25.

These areas will continue to be checked, as these cases are more likely to spread the virus to others after the lock is released.

Professor Deenan Pillay, virologist at Universtiy College London, told the Guardian: “I am expecting a number of Leicesters. The baseline level of infection in the UK is still much higher than in other countries in Europe when it started unblocking it, ”he added.

Jeanelle de Gruchy, president of the Association of Directors of Public Health, told the newspaper: “We have to be careful to loosen the lock since we're not out of the woods yet. Leicester is a sobering example of this. It should make us cautious when it comes to simplifying various measures. & # 39;

The data show how the Coronavirus outbreak in Leicester has increased over time. The UK figures only include first pillar swab tests which, according to official sources, are only given to patients with medical needs or key personnel

The data show how the Coronavirus outbreak in Leicester has increased over time. The UK figures only include first pillar swab tests which, according to official sources, are only given to patients with medical needs or key personnel

How a large BAME population, poverty and crowded households could have contributed to Leicester's rise in some cases

Government officials, local politicians and scientists disagree as to whether Leicester is experiencing a real increase in certain cases or whether better tests simply find more of them where it wasn't before.

It is also not clear whether there are any characteristics of Leicester that make it more likely that an increase will occur in certain cases, or whether accidental coincidences have led to the first “second wave” taking place there. Experts say that many of the risk factors in Leicester are the same in all major cities in England.

The city's mayor, Sir Peter Soulsby, said this morning on BBC Radio 4 that a report sent to him by the government actually confirms that it is very likely that the increase in the number of positives identified is due to increased testing, and that in fact, maybe nothing is of great importance in these results. & # 39;

The city's public health director, Ivan Browne, said: “Interestingly, (the increase in cases) it is very much the younger working age population and mostly the eastern part of our city. We have started to see this level through our test program.

“Young people work in many industries across the city. At this stage, we try to collect as much epidemiological information as we can to really try to understand and understand it. I don't think we see a single source or smoking gun at the moment. "

It was always likely that city overvoltages would occur first. There are more people who increase the risk, and these people are more likely to live in densely populated areas and come into contact with strangers on a regular basis.

Dr. Shaun Fitzgerald of Cambridge University said: “There will be differences in the ease with which people can maintain physical distance between densely populated areas and rural areas, so it is not surprising to me that we may see localized torches. Oops, which in turn have to be suppressed by delayed relaxation or temporary reintroduction of some restrictions on certain movements and activities. "

Leicester also has a high level of deprivation, which affects people's lives in a way that puts them at risk of getting the virus.

Dr. Simon Clarke, microbiologist at the University of Reading, told MailOnline: “In disadvantaged areas, people have to go to work more often, work less from home, and use public transport more. You cannot distance yourself from others. & # 39;

The city's Samworth Brothers sandwich factory reported over the weekend that it had diagnosed cases of Covid-19 among its employees.

Food processing factories pose a higher risk of transmission because the virus can survive longer in cold environments on hard surfaces and people's airways become more susceptible to infection.

Dr. Clarke added that the type of work people do could increase their risk.

"Blue collar cities are now at higher risk than places like London and Manchester that offer more financial services," he added.

The full extent of local infection rates is still unclear, as the government only includes first pill swab tests that, according to official sources, are only performed on patients with medical needs or key personnel.

Positive results from second-pillar tests performed by trading partners are added to the total case fee, but no geographic breakdown is currently provided.

For example, government data shows that Britain has officially recorded 311,965 Covid-19 cases since the February crisis got out of control.

However, PHE has only released area-based data for 63 percent of infections – meaning the location of 115,000 confirmed cases is missing.

When Health Minister Matt Hancock announced Leicester's closure this week, he announced that he had made the decision based on the results of the community, suggesting that the outbreak is much higher than the numbers show.

Government-released data show that Leicester has registered only 1,056 coronavirus cases since the pandemic – a third of the number received by LCC. It was shown that only 366 new infections were confirmed in May and June.

Data on the results of the first pillar tests analyzed by The Daily Telegraph show that Leicester had the second highest number of cases in all of England last week – after only Kent (101).

However, the rate in Kent – the highest municipality with the most diagnosed cases (5,591) – has dropped 16 percent week by week.

Ministers warned for the first time last month that individual cities could be closed again if the coronavirus cases increased again as soon as the restrictions were relaxed.

Officials will carefully monitor the impact on certain areas and combat hot zones by introducing “local barriers” where restrictions are reintroduced.

Nine of the 36 agencies that have cases of Covid-19, including Sunderland, Portsmouth and York, did not register between June 13 and 19.

They all recorded either one or two cases the following week, which is why they were added to the list of areas where outbreaks appear to be increasing.

Doncaster, a city in South Yorkshire, saw the largest real increase in coronavirus cases during the two-week period, from 11 to 32.

The London boroughs of Hammersmith and Fulham (seven to 18) and Ealing (five to 14) also saw large jumps in the actual number of cases.

Thirteen other London boroughs also see an increase in coronavirus cases, according to analysis of The Telegraph numbers.

However, official numbers show that the number of infections is falling. The average number of cases confirmed in the laboratory has dropped to 894 – the lowest since March.

According to The Telegraph, it was found today that every seventh child in Leicester tested positive for the virus.

The prevalence among 15-year-olds in the city of East Midlands is now 15 percent – almost three times as high as in the rest of England.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Health and Welfare said, "We worked closely with our local partners and provided them with the resources and tools to help them quickly take action to deal with new local infection spikes."

Government officials, local politicians and scientists disagree as to whether Leicester is experiencing a real increase in certain cases or whether better tests simply find more of them where it wasn't before.

It is also not clear whether there are any characteristics of Leicester that make it more likely that an increase will occur in certain cases, or whether accidental coincidences have led to the first “second wave” taking place there. Experts say that many of the risk factors in Leicester are the same in all major cities in England.

The city's mayor, Sir Peter Soulsby, said this morning on BBC Radio 4 that a report sent to him by the government actually confirms that it is very likely that the increase in the number of positives identified is due to increased testing, and that in fact, maybe nothing is of great importance in these results. & # 39;

The city's public health director, Ivan Browne, said: “Interestingly, (the increase in cases) it is very much the younger working age population and mostly the eastern part of our city. We have started to see this level through our test program.

“Young people work in many industries across the city. At this stage, we try to collect as much epidemiological information as we can to really try to understand and understand it. I don't think we see a single source or smoking gun at the moment. "

It was always likely that city overvoltages would occur first. There are more people who increase the risk, and these people are more likely to live in densely populated areas and come into contact with strangers on a regular basis.

Dr. Shaun Fitzgerald of Cambridge University said: “There will be differences in the ease with which people can maintain physical distance between densely populated areas and rural areas, so it is not surprising to me that we may see localized torches. Oops, which in turn have to be suppressed by delayed relaxation or temporary reintroduction of some restrictions on certain movements and activities. "

Leicester also has a high level of deprivation, which affects people's lives in a way that puts them at risk of getting the virus.

Dr. Simon Clarke, microbiologist at the University of Reading, told MailOnline: “In disadvantaged areas, people have to go to work more often, work less from home, and use public transport more. You cannot distance yourself from others. & # 39;

The city's Samworth Brothers sandwich factory reported over the weekend that it had diagnosed cases of Covid-19 among its employees.

Food processing factories pose a higher risk of transmission because the virus can survive longer in cold environments on hard surfaces and people's airways become more susceptible to infection.

Dr. Clarke added that the type of work people do could increase their risk.

"Blue collar cities are now at higher risk than places like London and Manchester that offer more financial services," he added.

Police say they will keep drivers from leaving Leicester after the reveler tries to rent a bus to take friends from the city affected by COVID for an evening in Nottingham when the pubs open on Saturday

Police have pledged to turn over vehicles and good drivers trying to flee Leicester to drink or shop after the city has been closed again after an increase in Covid 19 cases in the city.

The officers will randomly test vehicles leaving Leicester's restricted area and turn them around when their journey is not essential. This became known today due to confusion as some areas within the city limits are closed while the neighbors are not.

The Leicestershire police are also threatening to pay £ 100 fines as concerns grow that residents may flee to the district's open pubs, hair salons, or other attractions, while patrols will also disband city rallies after they ended in June have been partially blamed for an increase in coronavirus cases.

Yesterday Colin Browning, a fan of Leicester City, sent a call to people to take him on a bus to Nottingham to spend a night in the pub for £ 15. It was sold out on Tuesday, but he reduced it to a minibus last night after admitting that it was "over the top".

It came after people booked minibuses and coaches to take them to nearby Nottingham and Derby to drink on "Super Saturday" this weekend – when the rest of England emerged from the closure on July 4th. Nottinghamshire's chief of police Craig Guildford says his officers are also ready to act if Leicester residents show up in Nottingham for shopping or going out while the UK traffic police is checking trains between the two cities.

Pictured: The restricted area in Leicester, where some Brits are locked while their neighbors are not

The patrols could also be stepped up in public spaces to enforce the guidelines, but roadblocks are considered excessive, the Times reported when the Leicestershire police criticized the "drip" of information from Whitehall to local authorities and Matt Hancock insisted Closing shops would be enforced by law, but there would be no travel ban.

Willy Bach, police and crime commissioner for Leicester, Leicestershire and Rutland, criticized the blocking process. “A map of the (restricted) area was only made available to us long after the announcement. I have great sympathy with the agencies commissioned with the delivery. They needed clarity from the start and I am amazed that it is fed with drops throughout the day, ”he said.

Officials will stop cars, minibuses, and coaches and disband large groups after it became known that a large block party was held in Leicester last weekend.

Oxford University professor Peter Horby, chairman of the new and emerging Advisory Group on Respiratory Virus Threats (Nervtag), said the public should be prepared for other local coronavirus restrictions to return later in the year.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today program, "Unfortunately, I think we should. We have seen that the epidemic is at the center, which is often the case and is not the same in all places. And we have seen that London is unfortunately the leader in the UK and now Leicester is unfortunately the leader and we can expect more from it. I think there must be local responses to local outbreaks. & # 39;

Dr. Duncan Robertson, a data expert at the School of Business and Economics at Loughborough University, told MailOnline that Public Health England's statistics indicate a "group of outbreaks around Manchester", while Doncaster also saw an increase in cases and it in Kent, Wales, there are persistent outbreaks and Scotland is a cause for concern.

Health Minister Matt Hancock confirmed that the blockade measures in the city of East Midlands will be extended for at least two weeks after a dramatic increase in coronavirus cases. Shops that are not necessary will be closed again and schools will be closed from Thursday. According to government documents, it will not be reviewed until July 18.

Leicester City Council and Public Health England released a map on Tuesday detailing exactly which areas in Leicestershire to block. The border extends to Birstall in the north of the city and Wigston in the south.

Police are checking the cars in York on March 26. Officials will conduct similar controls to ensure that the locals obey the new location in Leicester

Police are checking the cars in York on March 26. Officials will conduct similar controls to ensure that the locals obey the new location in Leicester

Pictured: Where the border runs across Leicester at Bowhill Grove after Matt Hancock announced a local extension of the closure

Pictured: Where the border runs across Leicester at Bowhill Grove after Matt Hancock announced a local extension of the closure

But those who lived on a street in Scraptoft last night said they were "completely confused" by the government's blockade because half of the street is strictly blocked and others have the opportunity to enjoy the July 4 nationwide easing restrictions .

77-year-old Kathleen McDonagh, who lives a few meters within the Leicester restricted area with her 56-year-old daughter Mary, has to wait at least two weeks before enjoying relaxed Covid-19 measures and into the pub, hairdressing salons and the Pub can go to restaurants.

The couple must also wait before visiting their children and grandchildren, enjoying a cup of tea at The White Horse, or attending Mass in the nearby St. Joseph Catholic Church.

Meanwhile, 77-year-old Veronica Cayless, who lives in a house opposite the McDonaghs, is looking forward to starting her life with most of the British on the so-called "Super Saturday".

Her home is outside the extended cut-off limit announced on Monday amid an increase in the Covid 19 cases in Leicester. The city accounted for around 10 percent of all positive cases in the UK last week.

Leicester has an infection rate of 135 per 100,000 people, which is three times higher than in the next higher region. Hospital admissions are also far above the norm at six to ten per day.

The families both live on a quiet suburban street that consists of four-bedroom semi-detached houses and manicured lawns.

However, imposing a local blacklist means that some residents must remain isolated while others enjoy the same exemption from Saturday as the rest of the country.

Less than a mile from Ms. McDonagh and Ms. Cayless, neighbors that are both inside and outside the restricted area are separated by a bare wooden picket fence.

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