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One in FIVE people may have had coronavirus, the modeling suggests


One in five people in England may already have had Covid. This is based on modeling that the actual number of infections is five times higher than the official number.

The government's Covid-19 dashboard says there have been 2.4 million cases of the disease in the UK since the outbreak began in January, representing four percent of the country's population.

And Public Health England estimates, through random blood tests, that 6.9 percent of the population has the disease – around 3.8 million people.

However, figures from data analytics firm Edge Health suggest the actual number of infections can be as high as 12.4 million, which is 22 percent of people.

This could mean the UK is closer to some level of herd immunity than previously thought. Scientists believe that if a significant portion of the population is already infected with Covid, the virus cannot spread as quickly as most of them will not be re-infected. But it won't last forever.

The model used to get the number compares Covid-19 deaths in each area of ​​England to an estimated infectious mortality rate (IFR) – the percentage of people who contract the virus and die – and the age distribution of the individual districts.

It found that the estimated cases in 77 locations in England are more than five times the official number, a little over half of the 149 local authorities analyzed.

In some parts of London and Essex, which were the first hotspots in the spring and are now struggling with the highly infectious new strain, the actual infection rate could be eight times higher than the official figure, with an estimated one in two people affected infected with the virus.

In Manchester and Liverpool, which became epicentres in the fall as the epidemic shifted north, the real caseload is believed to be six times higher than the government's four out of ten had Covid.

Edge Health co-founder and director George Batchelor said it was "incredible" how insane the official testing regime was with the country's epidemic, and said it paints only "a fraction of the picture of overall infections".

It is generally accepted that the actual number of Britons with the disease due to asymptomatic cases and lack of testing, or lack of testing, is far higher than the official figure. This was especially true at the start of the pandemic, when the UK's lackluster testing scheme meant swabs were only reserved for the sickest Covid patients in the hospital.

Scroll down to see the actual number of infections in YOUR region

The government's Covid-19 dashboard says there have been 2.4 million cases of the disease since the February outbreak in the UK, representing four percent of the country's population. However, Edge Health analysis suggests that the actual number of infections could be up to 12.4 million, which is 22 percent of people

Chris Whitty warns that "the next few weeks will be the worst" as ministers may "only go out, ban supermarket chatting and curfew" once a week for fear of 2,000 deaths a day

Chris Whitty warned today that the next few weeks will be the worst yet for the NHS as the government begs people not to exceed the lockdown lines – and threatens to make them even tougher.

The chief medical officer went on the air to highlight the magnitude of the threat. He said 30,000 people are in the hospital, compared to the high of 18,000 in April.

In the midst of chatting in the street and in stores, Prof. Whitty urged people to remember that "any unnecessary contact" was an opportunity for the virus to spread.

He insisted that while the NHS is in "the most dangerous situation anyone can remember", vaccines mean the UK can be back to normal in "months, not years" – but he warned the situation is far from it removed.

The intervention came amid concerns that the number of daily deaths could rise to 2,000, and Boris Johnson sought to tighten national lockdown rules even more dramatically if cases continued to increase.

A Whitehall source said MailOnline ministers had been talking about people being allowed to leave the house only once a week – although No10 today denied it was an option. Other ideas include making it mandatory to wear masks outdoors and banning extended bladders.

Vaccine Minister Nadhim Zahawi this morning suggested that stores be in the line of fire, stressing that everyone in supermarkets must wear masks and follow disposable systems. He appealed to people not to stop and chat with friends they meet outside of their homes.

Limiting people from different households playing sports together also appears to be in the pipeline as the government looks at ways to reduce transmission.

Professor Whitty told BBC Breakfast: “We have a very important problem. The next few weeks will be the worst weeks of this pandemic as measured by the NHS numbers. & # 39;

He added, "That is everyone's problem."

Prof. Whitty said, "This is the most dangerous time we have really had in terms of the number of NHS members at this particular point in time."

The UK announced another 573 coronavirus deaths yesterday, on the highest Sunday since April and the third deadliest Sunday in the entire pandemic as one in five people in England may have had coronavirus. In some areas of East London and Essex, it could be up to one in two people, Edge Health claims.

The infections are also still high: 54,940 were announced yesterday – for the thirteenth day in a row they were above the 50,000 mark.

Edge data suggests that the London boroughs of Barking and Dagenham Newham and Redbridge and Thurrock in Essex had the highest rates of Covid cases in England.

The model found that 54.2 percent of the population had caught the virus since the pandemic began in Barking, 49 percent in Newham, 45.4 percent in Thurrock and 42.9 percent in Redbridge.

The raw infection data highlights the discrepancy between the official Public Health England record, which is uploaded to the Department of Health's dashboard each day, and the actual number of cases.

In Barking, Edge Health estimates 115,460 people previously had Covid, compared with just 14,665 confirmed PHE cases.

There was a similar issue in Newham, where there were an estimated 173,058 infections involving 21,683 PHE. In Thurrock it was 79,223 versus 12,007 and in Redbridge it was 130,806 versus 22,125.

The model estimates that 39 percent of the population in Liverpool and Manchester have had Covid at some point, with 193,428 and 213,389 infections, respectively. These estimates are six times higher than the official tolls.

The four areas with the lowest infections are all in the Southwest – Devon (5.9 percent), Dorset (5.8 percent), Cornwall (4.8 percent) and Torbay (7.5 percent). Because Covid relies on dense populations and lots of social interactions to spread, rural areas have been spared the worst of its impact.

Edge Health estimated the total number of cases based on the total number of Covid-19 attributed deaths released by the Office of National Statistics in each area of ​​local government.

The team then worked backwards to estimate the number of cases that must have occurred to result in death. They did this using models that took into account age demographics in each area.

George Batchelor, co-founder and director of Edge Health, told the Guardian, “Reported tests are only a fraction of the bigger picture of infections showing how badly London and the North West were hit during the pandemic.

“It is incredible that understanding where and how infections occur is no better at this point as control measures could be more targeted.

"Even with upcoming vaccinations, it is critical to develop this understanding so that future variants of the virus can be effectively controlled and managed."

Chris Whitty warned today that the next few weeks will be the worst for the NHS as the government threatened to toughen the lockdown.

The chief medical officer went on the air to highlight the magnitude of the threat. He said 30,000 people are in the hospital, compared to the high of 18,000 in April.

In the midst of chatting in the street and in stores, Prof. Whitty urged people to remember that "any unnecessary contact" was an opportunity for the virus to spread.

He insisted that while the NHS is in "the most dangerous situation anyone can remember", vaccines mean the UK can be back to normal in "months, not years" – but he warned the situation is far from it removed.

The intervention came amid concerns that the number of daily deaths could rise to 2,000, and Boris Johnson sought to tighten national lockdown rules even more dramatically if cases continued to increase.

There are allegations that ministers have spoken about people are only allowed to leave the house once a week – although No. 10 today denied that it was an option – as well as the compulsory wearing of masks outdoors and a ban on extended blisters.

Vaccine Minister Nadhim Zahawi this morning suggested that stores be in the line of fire, stressing that everyone in supermarkets must wear masks and follow disposable systems. He appealed to people not to stop and chat with friends they meet outside of their homes.

Limiting people from different households playing sports together also appears to be in the pipeline as the government looks at ways to reduce transmission.

Professor Whitty told BBC Breakfast: “We have a very important problem. The next few weeks will be the worst weeks of this pandemic as measured by the NHS numbers. & # 39; He added, "That is everyone's problem."

Prof. Whitty said, "This is the most dangerous time we have really had in terms of the number of NHS members at this particular point in time."

The UK announced another 573 coronavirus deaths yesterday, on the highest Sunday since April and the third deadliest Sunday in the entire pandemic as one in five people in England may have had coronavirus. In some areas of East London and Essex, it could be up to one in two people, Edge Health claims.

The infections are also still high: 54,940 were announced yesterday – for the thirteenth day in a row they were above the 50,000 mark.

HOW MANY PEOPLE REALLY HAVE COVID IN YOUR AREA?
local community % Population estimated infected Estimated cases Confirmed Cases (PHE)
Bark and Dagenham 54.20% 115,460 14,665
Newham 49.00% 173.058 21,683
Thurrock 45.40% 79.223 12.007
Redbridge 42.90% 130.806 22,125
Havering 42.40% 110.063 19,316
Tower hamlet 39.80% 129.314 19,387
Liverpool 38.80% 193,428 30,672
Manchester 38.60% 213,389 37.471
Rochdale 38.00% 84,493 15,409
Salford 37.80% 97,742 16.117
Oldham 37.60% 89.129 17,385
Tameside 36.50% 82,572 12,438
Blackburn with Darwen 36.00% 53,925 12,475
Sandwell 35.20% 115,735 18,752
Hackney and City of London 35.10% 101.995 14,108
Brent 34.90% 115.101 15,744
Nottingham 33.70% 112.247 21,021
Wigan 33.30% 109,489 20,441
Birmingham 33.20% 378,806 60,046
Waltham Forest 33.20% 91,847 16.164
Stoke-on-Trent 32.80% 84.114 13,594
Kingston upon Hull, city of 32.70% 84,885 13,577
To bury 32.60% 62,311 12.286
Medway 32.20% 89,815 19,063
swamp 32.00% 47,803 8.501
Leicester 31.90% 113.164 23,517
Barnsley 31.40% 77,599 12,957
Luton 31.40% 66,946 11,346
Doncaster 31.40% 97.827 15,664
Rotherham 30.80% 81,667 14.209
Sunderland 30.60% 85,069 14,641
Bradford 30.50% 164,446 34,511
Walsall 30.20% 86,316 14,379
Croydon 30.10% 116.257 18,388
Haringey 29.90% 80.282 13,076
Southend-on-Sea 29.40% 53,842 9,659
read 29.30% 47,482 5.974
South Tyneside 29.00% 43,805 8.207
Derby 28.90% 74,468 11,632
Merton 28.80% 59,510 9,995
Bedford 28.70% 49,818 7.631
Bolton 28.70% 82,649 17,909
Ealing 28.40% 97.129 17,087
Hounslow 28.30% 76,796 13,701
Lewisham 28.30% 86,459 13.104
harrow 28.10% 70,521 12,461
Wolverhampton 27.60% 72.674 14,136
Lambeth 27.40% 89.184 14,552
Knowsley 27.30% 41.214 10.115
Leeds 27.20% 215,749 43,454
Stockton-on-teas 27.10% 53,457 10.207
Blackpool 27.00% 37.686 6.573
Middlesbrough 27.00% 38.033 7.636
County Durham 26.90% 142.369 26.227
Hartlepool 26.60% 24,883 5.984
Warrington 26.30% 55.294 11,550
Milton Keynes 26.30% 70,884 12.163
Hillingdon 26.30% 80,698 15.273
Barnet 26.20% 103,847 18,752
Greenwich 26.10% 75.289 13,427
Enfield 26.10% 87,062 19,504
Bexley 25.70% 63,719 15,059
Wakefield 25.60% 89.208 16,985
Sheffield 25.30% 147.939 30,848
Sutton 25.00% 51,601 9,847
Trafford 24.80% 58,791 11,290
Darlington 24.80% 26,446 4,760
Gateshead 24.60% 49,619 9,990
Hammersmith and Fulham 24.30% 45,075 8.005
Newcastle upon Tyne 24.20% 73.269 18.203
Southwark 24.00% 76,670 13,716
Kirklees 23.90% 104.995 23,476
Wandsworth 23.80% 78.317 14.008
Lancashire 23.80% 289.723 64.245
Staffordshire 23.10% 202,870 38.051
Kent 23.00% 364,427 79.903
Sefton 23.00% 63,568 14,018
Weird 22.50% 72,839 14,364
Northamptonshire 22.10% 166.641 25,970
Solihull 22.10% 47,834 8,827
Wait 21.90% 28,375 6.875
Islington 21.80% 52.907 9,644
Cheshire West and Chester 21.70% 74,613 13,665
Essex 21.60% 321.858 72,513
Stockport 21.60% 63,236 13,561
Kingston upon Thames 21.40% 38.052 8,050
St. Helens 21.20% 38.251 9,826
Wokingham 21.00% 35,961 5.155
Dudley 20.60% 66.239 15,865
Central Bedfordshire 20.60% 59,422 9.402
Hertfordshire 20.10% 238,870 46,668
Derbyshire 19.90% 159.935 29,981
Coventry 19.90% 73,802 13,562
Cheshire East 19.60% 75.417 13,604
Nottinghamshire 19.60% 162,482 33,527
Redcar and Cleveland 19.20% 26.265 5.864
North East Lincolnshire 18.80% 29,964 6.256
Cumbria 18.60% 93.237 16,412
Peterborough 18.50% 37.378 8.155
North Tyneside 17.90% 37.221 8.603
Lincolnshire 17.80% 135,665 27.109
Bromley 17.40% 57,938 16,379
Warwickshire 17.20% 99,552 19,417
Surrey 17.20% 205.177 43,581
North Lincolnshire 17.10% 29,496 6.421
Bristol, city of 16.90% 78,424 20.274
Richmond upon Thames 16.90% 33,466 7.123
Portsmouth 16.80% 36.209 8.412
Windsor and Maidenhead 16.80% 25,425 5.341
Leicestershire 16.60% 117.469 28.219
Northumberland 16.60% 53.417 12.108
Westminster 16.50% 43,090 8.807
East Riding of Yorkshire 16.30% 55,759 12,779
Brighton and Hove 16.10% 46,829 8,462
Gloucestershire 15.70% 99,881 14,410
Kensington and Chelsea 15.50% 24.224 5.632
Calderdale 15.40% 32,585 10.186
Buckinghamshire 14.90% 80,890 18,581
Bracknell Forest 14.90% 18.203 4,332
Southampton 14.80% 37,360 7.685
York 14.60% 30.787 8.101
Swindon 14.50% 32.264 6,966
Worcestershire 14.40% 85.506 17,629
East Sussex 14.30% 79,531 17,892
Camden 14.20% 38.244 8,970
North Yorkshire 13.70% 84,458 19,359
Suffolk 13.60% 103,854 16,373
West Berkshire 13.40% 21,262 3.804
South Gloucestershire 13.00% 37.056 9.458
Telford and Wrekin 12.80% 23,010 6,055
Oxfordshire 12.30% 85.410 20,640
Hampshire 12.20% 169.120 35,806
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole 11.70% 46,358 12.276
Shropshire 11.70% 37,653 8.248
West Sussex 11.50% 99.337 22,086
Wiltshire 11.40% 57.040 9,037
North Somerset 11.30% 24,300 6.371
Cambridgeshire 10.10% 65.992 14,886
Norfolk 9.80% 88.646 22,066
Herefordshire, county 9.50% 18,407 3,987
Isle of Wight 9.40% 13,332 2.851
Rutland 8.90% 3,550 812
Bath and North East Somerset 8.90% 17,154 5.260
Somerset 8.30% 46,768 11,148
Plymouth 7.60% 19,973 5.745
Torbay 7.50% 10.257 2,436
Devon 5.90% 47,548 13,268
Dorset 5.80% 21,856 5.737
Cornwall 4.80% 27,617 7.325

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