London's hospitals will be overwhelmed by Covid in less than two weeks, even at best, an official briefing warns.
Vin Diwakar, Medical Director at NHS England London, delivered the worrying analysis to the medical directors of the capital's hospital trusts this afternoon via a Zoom call.
Even if the number of coronavirus patients is least likely to increase and capacity increases, including the opening of London's Nightingale Hospital, the NHS would still have 2,000 beds for general, acute and critical care by Jan. 19, reports the HSJ.
For both G&A and intensive care, three scenarios are defined: "Best", "Average" and "Bad". These are responsible for the effects of a daily growth of four percent, a growth of five percent and a growth of six percent.
Growth for G&A beds was 3.5 percent on January 5, and 4.8 percent for intensive care beds.
The "best" case forecast would mean that the number of Covid patients in G&A beds would rise to 9,500 by January 19, with non-Covid patients remaining the same at 7,460 – a number that is constant in all scenarios remains.
After small measures to control demand, a total requirement of 17,100 is forecast.
Possible ways to increase capacity include securing an additional 400 beds through the NHS, with the independent sector finding 50.
In addition, 1,000 “step beds,” some of which were provided when Nightingale Hospital opened, and 150 beds provided by specialist companies would add up to a total of 15,600 – still 1,500 less than forecast demand.
The news comes as shocking footage from an intensive care unit revealed the magnitude of the coronavirus crisis and the strain on the NHS.
At London's University College Hospital, emotional doctors and nurses struggled while tending to the growing numbers of coronavirus patients.
Operating theaters and some children's rooms have even been converted into intensive care units to cope with the ever growing number of patients.
Emotional doctors and nurses struggled at London's University College Hospital as they tended to the growing numbers of coronavirus patients
The harrowing footage comes on the same day the UK has injured 1,000 Covid-related deaths since the virus peaked in April.
Figures from the Ministry of Health show that a whopping 1,041 people have died from the effects of the coronavirus in the past 24 hours.
Footage filmed by the BBC showed the alarming reality in hospital wards.
One patient, Attila, 67, spoke about the trauma of suffering from the virus.
He said, & # 39; I was blown away. I didn't think I would make it. There is no oxygen around. It's very scary. & # 39;
A doctor went on to explain that if the hospital is forced to continue increasing capacity at this rate, it can only hold out one more week before it cannot provide intensive health care to all patients.
It comes after it became known that doctors may have to "lottery" decide which seriously ill patients to treat if the NHS is overwhelmed by draft Covid rationing plans this winter.
Even if the number of coronavirus patients increased at the lowest likely rate and capacity, including the opening of London's Nightingale Hospital, the NHS would still have 2,000 general, acute and critical care beds by Jan. 19, reported the HSJ (archive picture)
New instructions In addition, health professionals advise assessing patients' potential to make a contribution to society or their likelihood of surviving treatment in order to prioritize whose lives are to be saved.
The protocol states that "random allocation like a lottery" can be used for patients who are in a similar state of health and cannot be otherwise separated.
The document, published in November in the Journal for Medical Ethics, was prepared by experts at a large NHS trust in Bath to develop a system for rationing care in the event that there are insufficient resources to treat everyone.
It's rife among NHS specialists, according to the Telegraph, as some trusts struggle to cope with a tsunami of coronavirus patients with the new, highly infectious strain of the disease.
Medical, legal and palliative care specialists from the Royal United Hospital Bath NHS Trust (RUHBT) who drafted the protocol stressed that the health service has not yet reached the tipping point where care needs to be rationed.
Dozens of hospital workers are needed to care for just one coronavirus patient who is on a ventilator.
Nine employees are required to turn ventilators twice a day to improve their airflow.
And hospital workers don't just bear the brunt of the coronavirus crisis, physically.
Many have been emotionally drained from the horrific things they have seen.
One nurse said, “My feelings are everywhere. I'm scared, sad, and worried. & # 39;
Another nurse, Ashleigh, announced that they are being forced to prioritize their care, which will inevitably lead to a lower standard of care.
BBC Medical Editor Fergus Walsh said: “The staff are shocked. I saw employees there with tears. & # 39;
He also announced that there are currently 30,000 Covid patients living in hospitals across the country – 9,000 more than at the peak of the virus in April.
And although the average age of a coronavirus patient in intensive care is 60, Mr Walsh announced that there are patients as young as 20 who are being treated in the intensive care unit at University College Hospital.
He added that doctors are keen to let the public know that urgent help is still available. If you are concerned about lumps and bumps, or if you have a heart attack or stroke, you should still go to the hospital to avoid unnecessary loss of life.
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