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Leeds is close to lockdown: Almost half a million people in West Yorkshire are facing restrictions


Leeds is on the verge of a local lockdown and has been included on Public Health England's list of problem areas – while measures are eased in parts of Greater Manchester, Lancashire and Leicester next week.

In the city of Yorkshire, home to half a million people, the infection rate has risen to 32.4 new cases per 100,000 people, which has brought authorities to the attention.

One in 29 people who are tested there – 3.5 percent – tests positive according to official information.

If cases cannot be kept under lock and key with a stricter testing regime, stricter rules may need to be put in place to maintain social distancing and get the virus out.

Council presidents say an increase in coronavirus cases among younger people across the city is responsible for the surge.

This is a trend that is being confirmed across the country as more and more people return to work, pubs, restaurants, gyms, and social events.

It connects a wide variety of areas in the North of England and the Midlands that are affected by high levels of infection. Leicester and parts of Greater Manchester and Lancashire are still subject to lockdown rules.

The full list of PHE's problem areas wasn't released this week, but last week it covered 29 locations across the UK.

New figures show that Leed's 7-day infection rate has increased to 29.4 cases per 100,000 city residents. That puts it on a list of some of the worst hit cities in the UK

WHERE ARE ENGLANDS 20 COVID-19 HOTSPOTS?

Local authorities new cases in the seven days ending August 30 at the rate of per 100,000 people.

Pendulum 74.9

Bolton 69.6

Rossendale 65.8

Oldham 63.3

Corby 54.0

Bradford 52.6

Blackburn with Darwen 49.4

South Tyneside 46.4

Rochdale 44.1

Manchester 42.7

Tameside 39.3

Trafford 38.8

Salford 37.9

Great Yarmouth 35.2

Burnley 9/34

Preston 33.5

Leeds 32.5

Kettering 32.4

Breckland 31.4

Birmingham 02/30

Source: PA News Agency

Leeds City Council is already taking action of its own, including encouraging employers to follow national guidelines on safe working practices, targeting nursing homes, schools and other places with groups of people, and engaging with communities, businesses and partners.

It is also aimed at teens using social media messages to cut off gatherings.

In a statement, the council said: “The latest 7-day infection numbers show Leeds has a rate of 32.4 cases per 100,000 people and a test positivity rate of 3.5%.

“The latest data suggests that many cases are in different neighborhoods, which means that they may be related to social interaction and recreational activities.

"The prevalence is wide and variable across wards, and cases have increasingly been seen in younger people, ages 18 to 34, with some concerns about activities such as house parties and gatherings."

Council Chair Judith Blake said this was "a pivotal moment in our efforts to control the spread of the virus".

She told the BBC: “Nobody wants to see further restrictions on life in Leeds.

"The harsh reality is that if our infection rate continues to rise as it has before, we will have no alternative."

The council said 44 new cases were identified in Leeds on Wednesday.

Ms. Blake added, "This is an increase in all different districts of the city, especially among young adults in all communities."

Leeds has so far managed to evade stricter lockdown restrictions imposed in other parts of West Yorkshire.

Cities like Bradford have had restrictions, including restrictions on visiting other households, for several weeks due to an increase in some cases.

But along with parts of Bradford, local Covid-19 restrictions were eased in northern England this week, allowing social gatherings between two homes in Stockport, Burnley, Hyndburn and parts of Calderdale and Kirklees as of Wednesday.

Trafford and Bolton should also get out of local lockdown this week.

But government health chiefs made a last-minute U-turn after a surge in some cases.

Matt Hancock said: “We have taken steps to protect the people of these parts of northern England.

"We are seeing the positive results of our local approach and are increasingly able to take targeted measures."

Sale, Trafford locals, pictured earlier this week, complained about the mixed government messages

Sale, Trafford locals, pictured earlier this week, complained about the mixed government messages

Leeds has had an increasing number of confirmed cases per 100,000 population since August

The numbers for Bradford, where lockdown measures have been taken, are declining

The numbers of total confirmed cases per 100,000 population in Leeds have increased since August (left), while the numbers for Bradford (right), where lockdown measures have been taken, are falling

However, Bradford has been flagged as one of seven new coronavirus hotspots in England and Wales flagged by a Covid-19 symptom tracking app that uses data from more than three million people.

Covid-19 rules Bolton and Trafford

Residents are asked to stay at home as much as possible.

Those who can should work from home.

If you can't, you should limit contact with other people as much as possible.

You are also asked to wear a mask in public places and to wash your hands regularly.

People should be at least two meters away from people who are not in their household.

Residents are prohibited from meeting people from other households, be it indoors or even in a private garden.

Researchers from King & # 39; s College London highlighted South Tyneside, Oldham, Redcar and Cleveland, Wirral, Bradford, Barnsley and Denbighshire as potential problem areas.

This complements Blackpool, Halton and Manchester who have been on the list since last week.

It comes as the UK announced 1,735 new coronavirus cases yesterday in its biggest daily spike in three months.

The last time daily infections were higher was on June 4, when 1,805 were diagnosed with the disease and most of the strict lockdown restrictions were still in place.

The seven-day moving case average is now 1,435, a quarter (26 percent) per week.

In Scotland, there are now new cases every day for the first time since May, with 100 injured.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced today that the country's reproductive rate could be as high as 1.4 after safely below 1 for months.

The R-rate – which is the average number of people each Covid-19 patient will infect – has to stay below one or it can spiral out of control.

For the UK as a whole, the R is believed to hover around Hazardous Zone 1 and SAGE is no longer certain that it is definitely below that number.

It's likely that Pendle and Bolton will remain hotspots for the next two weeks, according to the Imperial College London model. Researchers led by Professor Axel Gandy today published a website estimating the likelihood that a location in England with current Covid-19 cases will be destroyed based on current data

It's likely that Pendle and Bolton will remain hotspots for the next two weeks, according to the Imperial College London model. Researchers led by Professor Axel Gandy today published a website estimating the likelihood that a location in England with current Covid-19 cases will be destroyed based on current data

The UK today has another 13 coronavirus deaths

The UK today has another 13 coronavirus deaths

Although cases have been on the rise since July, scientists have emphasized that this is not a sign of a second wave and that they have always expected case diagnoses to increase as lockdown measures are lifted and the testing system improved.

Experts tell MailOnline that the rising numbers are simply the result of young, healthy people being captured by official numbers. They were previously missing because the tests were reserved for the sick.

The UK recorded an additional 13 coronavirus deaths in all situations, ending the four-day period in single-digit deaths. Wales was the only homeland that had no deaths today.

The next coronavirus hotspots: The interactive map shows where Covid clusters are most likely to flare up in the next three weeks

A new interactive map shows where the next coronavirus hotspots are most likely to flare up in the next three weeks.

The Imperial College London document highlights areas across England and Wales where infections are on the rise.

Breckland, a local authority in Norfolk, is likely to be a high-risk area in just a fortnight, the data said.

Other areas where cases are increasing are all in the north of England, such as Bolton, Rossendale in Lancashire and Leeds in West Yorkshire.

South Tyneside in Tyne and Wear and Pendle, Lancashire – which are already seeing spikes – is expected to stay high, according to the map.

To use the interactive map below: After reading the preamble, press "Close". Then use your cursor to zoom in or out and move the slider down to see how scientists predict Covid-19 will advance in the UK.

Professor Axel Gandy of the Department of Mathematics at Imperial said, “The model will allow us to use the trends we are seeing in these areas to project where local Covid-19 hotspots are likely to develop in England and Wales.

"Covid-19 is unfortunately still with us, but we hope this will be a useful tool for local and national governments trying to get hotspots under control."

Imperial researchers said they "define a local authority as a hotspot when weekly reported cases per 100,000 population exceed 50".

TEST & TRACE could not reach a third risk contact in the last week

Almost a third of the contacts from Covid-19 cases were not reached by the NHS test and trace system last week. This is the lowest value since the system was launched in May.

A total of 31,388 people came into close contact with someone who tested positive between August 20 and August 26.

Only 69.4 percent of them were reached out and asked to self-isolate, up from 77.1 percent in the previous week.

According to the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs report, the reduction is largely due to "non-complex cases" where a higher proportion of contacts are unreachable.

Non-complex cases are those unrelated to an outbreak and handled by call centers or online.

Only 59.8 percent of the close contacts have been reached and asked to self-isolate when treated by these teams.

In comparison, complex cases, largely handled by local health teams, are increasingly likely to be reached.

This week, 97.3 percent of contacts handled by local health protection teams were reached and asked to self-isolate.

The numbers released today also show that it takes an average of three and a half days to come back a home test result that has been increasing for several weeks. The average person who takes a home test kit that can be ordered online doesn't get their result back for 86 hours, up from 76 hours the week before.

Labor has called today's NHS test and tracking numbers "extremely disappointing".

Justin Madders, a shadow health minister, said: “With cases increasing and the government demanding that everyone return to work, it is more important than ever that Test and Trace reach their full potential. It is therefore extremely disappointing to see that the number of people the system has reached has fallen again in the past week.

"There is also clearly a problem with the testing infrastructure as people across the country are being sent hundreds of kilometers to test appointments."

The team used data on daily reported cases, weekly reported deaths, and mathematical models to determine the likelihood that a local authority would become a hotspot in the following week.

The website also provides estimates for each local authority in England and Wales as to whether cases are expected to increase or decrease in the following week.

The predictions assume that current interventions – such as closings and school closings – in a local authority will not change beyond those taken about a week before the end of the observations.

The team notes that an increase in cases in a local authority may be due to an increase in testing that the model does not currently account for.

The model also assumes that everyone in the individual municipalities is equally likely to be infected, so that demographic factors such as the age structure of the population are not taken into account.

Dr. Swapnil Mishra of the MRC Center for Global Infectious Disease Analysis added, “We provide weekly forecasts on the development of Covid-19 at the community level in England and Wales.

'Our model helps identify hotspots – likely local problem areas. We hope that our estimates will enable rapid action at the local level to control the spread of the epidemic. & # 39;

The team behind the website defines a hotspot as a local authority that has more than 50 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 residents per week.

Pendle, Bolton, Corby, and Oldham currently fit into this category. But over the next two weeks, dozens more appear to be joining the list while others are falling.

Imperial reports the percent chance that a local authority will become a hotspot – 100 percent is almost certain.

South Tyneside (97 percent), Rossendale (90 percent), Leeds (85 percent), Corby (81 percent), and Breckland (81 percent) all have the highest likelihood of infections reaching infections per 100,000 people by their mid-50s by September.

However, the recently reported case numbers for Oldham show a decline, and as a result, the model shows that Oldham is unlikely to remain a hotspot until September (45 percent) after several weeks of trying to suppress outbreaks.

Various areas in the London commuter belt have a medium chance of becoming a hotspot by September 19 – the farthest point from predictions modeled by Professor Gandy and his team.

Waverley in Surrey and Hertsmere in Hertfordshire are affected at 55 percent and 61 percent with 50 per 100,000 cases, respectively. You currently have 16.6 and 29 cases per 100,000.

The UK announced 1,735 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, the biggest daily increase in three months.

The last time daily infections were higher was on June 4, when 1,805 were diagnosed with the disease and most of the strict lockdown restrictions were still in place.

The seven-day moving case average is now 1,435, a quarter (26 percent) per week.

Scotland now has new cases every day for the first time since May, with 100 injured. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced today that the country's reproductive rate could be as high as 1.4 after safely below 1 for months.

The R-rate – which is the average number of people each Covid-19 patient will infect – has to stay below one or it can spiral out of control.

For the UK as a whole, the R is believed to hover around Hazardous Zone 1 and SAGE is no longer certain that it is definitely below that number.

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