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JOHN NAISH: Why complacency is the deadliest coronavirus threat in Britain now


Are we beginning to experience a second wave of Covid-19 before the first wave has completely subsided? Leicester saw an increase of more than 600 cases in just two weeks and faces the prospect of a longer ban.

Expert agencies such as Public Health England attribute the upswing to a variety of possible factors, ranging from the high proportion of vulnerable people in BAME (Black Asian and Minority Ethnic) groups in the city to the possibility of residents rushing to mobile test services, which causes a statistical error.

However, Leicester is only the best known case of a resurrecting corona virus in the UK and worldwide. Across England, local authorities responsible for 36 urban and county areas report renewed relapses.

Infections decreased in Berlin, Lisbon, northern Spain, South Korea and Beijing after the contagion restrictions were relaxed.

A woman with a face mask walks past social distance signs in Leicester's North Evington neighborhood

Matt Hancock announced that unnecessary stores will be closed tomorrow and schools in Leicester will close on Thursday

Matt Hancock announced that unnecessary stores will be closed tomorrow and schools in Leicester will close on Thursday

(American numbers are also spiraling, of course. Experts say, however, that this is due to the first wave of the pandemic that continues to spread across the United States, not secondary peaks in areas that are already affected.)

The fear is that the comeback of the virus pandemic can be extremely catastrophic – and historically, second waves have often been far more deadly than the first. The Russian flu, which conquered the world at the end of the 19th century, killed around 27,000 people in Great Britain in the first wave.

The second, a year later, claimed 80,000 souls.

The second wave of Spanish flu in 1918 was also far more deadly – hundreds of millions ahead. This was not least due to the fact that the flu virus developed quickly and became much more deadly.

Fortunately, the opposite could happen with Covid-19. British data on patient outcomes indicate that the virus may become less and less deadly.

However, this decline in mortality rates may be due to other factors such as: B. Improvements in hospital care and the fact that many of the most vulnerable people in society died at the start of the pandemic.

However, the resurgent numbers show that the virus is no less infectious than before.

As long as outbreaks of the second wave occur in communities that remain at least partially blocked and generally practice social distancing, new infections should remain localized.

Let's start with a second wave of Covid-19 before the first wave has completely subsided, Josh Naish writes

Let's start with a second wave of Covid-19 before the first wave has completely subsided, Josh Naish writes

If not, infections like the first wave run like wildfire.

Unlike the first wave (which caught us off guard due to Chinese secrecy), the likelihood of a second pandemic is determined solely by our behavior. We learned a lot in a very short time. We now understand the R-factor and have shown that we can actually lower it.

We also learned that we can overcome Covid 19 outbreaks with patience and self-sacrifice.

We learn where new trouble spots are likely to arise – meat processing plants are a clear example of where cold, humid and crowded environments allow the virus to thrive – and so we should be particularly careful.

But if we want to prevent a second wave, we must also defeat another emerging enemy. This enemy is the basic human instinct. Studies show that our gray matter is oddly wired when it comes to persistent threats.

Royal Logistics Corp soldiers operate a mobile coronavirus test site at the Evington Leisure Center in Leicester. One of them carries a box in which the drivers can use their Covid 19 swabs

Royal Logistics Corp soldiers operate a mobile coronavirus test site at the Evington Leisure Center in Leicester today. One of them carries a box in which the drivers can use their Covid 19 swabs

Our central neurological stress response system (called the HPA axis) lowers our anxiety level every time we encounter the same threat.

It is practical for skydivers. Studies show that with each skydive they are less anxious. But familiarity here often leads to contempt.

It is the contempt that pervades the street party crowds, the soccer mobs, and the crowds that line up outside of Primark to buy beachwear to flaunt in crowded seaside resorts.

This contempt for the safety of others will only drive the virus again through vulnerable population groups.

It is the behavior that is the exact opposite of the patient and the sacrificing resilience that is required to prevent the return of Covid-19.

And if the existence of the threat is denied, it only becomes more likely.

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