In twelve London boroughs, the Covid-19 infection rate has passed the worrying threshold of 100 cases per 100,000 people, amid fears the capital is racing towards Tier 2 restrictions.
Richmond upon Thames (140.4), Hackney and City of London (133.1) and Ealing (132.5) had the highest daily new cases per 100,000 people for the week ended October 8, according to government statistics. None of the 32 counties had previously crossed the threshold, according to separate data from Public Health England.
Croydon (69.8), Bromley (67.1), and Sutton (64), all in the south, are at the other end of the scale with the fewest new cases per day – but all still have significant increases in infections over the world listed last month.
The average coronavirus infection rate in the London boroughs is 94.15 cases per 100,000 people, according to the latest data from the Department of Health – that's almost one in 1,000 people in the last week.
However, the numbers in London seem skewed into the data by the inclusion of infected students studying in other cities.
In Richmond, the capital's supposed hotspot, the analysis shows that a quarter of positive cases in the community since then actually occur in places like Manchester, Leeds, Exeter and Durham.
Of 212 cases recorded in Richmond since September 20, 49 were in other cities, the Evening Standard reports. The vast majority of these people were between 17 and 21 years old, suggesting they were students from London whose cases were recorded using their home address.
It comes after Mayor Sadiq Khan said it was "inevitable" that the capital will pass a "trigger point" to join the Northwest's swath of higher Tier 2 coronavirus restrictions in the "next few days". The city's nine million residents would be prohibited from seeing their friends and family indoors, including pubs and restaurants.
Mr Khan and other London bosses are backing a two-week lockdown on the national power interruption across England to curb increasing infections and avoid "sleepwalking into a dreary winter". But Tory London mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey described Mr Khan as "incredibly irresponsible" and accused him of "press release governance" for supporting drastic action without clear scientific backing.
According to reports, 100 cases per 100,000 people is considered one of the thresholds for an area moved to Tier 2. However, ministers need to consider a number of different statistics, including those showing the rate of growth, hospital stays and deaths.
Data shows that hospital admissions for Covid-19 in London have barely increased in the last month despite increased cases. Nearly 5,000 infected patients were treated by NHS doctors on the darkest days of the first wave in April – the current figure is around 300.
Richmond upon Thames (140.4), Hackney and City of London (133.1) and Ealing (132.5) have the highest infection rates in London, according to the Ministry of Health
Infection rates seem to be increasing across London and reaching higher levels in the west. The infection rates in London in the week ending September 28 are shown
London still lags far behind the northwest and northeast, where ministers are paying attention to reducing Covid-19 cases that are gradually translating into hospitalizations.
For example, the intensive care units in Liverpool are reportedly 95 percent full, a city council warned today.
Data shows that London is about four weeks behind the North West, where a significant proportion of the people are affected by Tier 2 restrictions and Liverpool are under Tier 3 restrictions.
WHICH BOROUGHS HAVE MORE THAN 100 CASES PER 100,000?
Seven-day rolling rate of new cases through the sample date ending October 8th:
Richmond upon Thames: 140.4
Hackney and City of London: 133.1
Kensington and Chelsea: 103.8
Hammersmith and Fulham: 101.5
Kingston upon Thames: 101.4
Hamlet tower: 100.4
The 12 counties with infection rates in excess of 100 cases per 100,000 are generally in west and north-west London, according to health ministry data, which will last until October 8.
Six other counties – Wandsworth (98), Newham (95.7), Waltham Forest (95), Hillingdon (92.9), Lambeth (91.4), and Westminster (90.3) – are closely behind with infection rates above 90 .
No district has an infection rate of less than 60 cases per 100,000 people, and those on the lower end of the scale are all in the south and southeast of the capital.
The north-south divide in London bears a remarkable resemblance to the overall picture of England, with the north-west being affected far more often than the south-east and south-west.
But although south London has more than half the worst area cases – Bexley's infection rate is 62 compared to Richmond's 140 – London is likely to be treated as a region if new restrictions are considered.
Rules such as a ban on mingling with friends and family, closings of pubs or gyms would be introduced across the city to avoid confusion.
And the latter rule could be implemented as early as this week, according to London Mayor Sadiq Khan, who said it was inevitable that the capital would pass a "trigger point" in the "next few days" to get into the higher tier 2 coronavirus -Restrictions to enter.
There is no official specific threshold that determines the extent of the restrictions in each area, with ministers having the final say in each case regardless of the thoughts of local leaders.
However, various reports suggest that Tier 2 will be triggered, or at least considered, when cases go above 100 per 100,000 people. The most severe level, "very high" Tier 3, would occur if Tier 2 measures failed to reduce transmission.
Boris Johnson stepped back from immediately admitting the capital to Tier 2 when he unveiled the nation's new three-tier lockdown system, which goes into effect today.
This would put London at the bottom end of the scale with most of the nation, meaning no new restrictions would be imposed immediately and the 6pm rule and 10pm curfew would remain in place.
But Mr Khan said on Tuesday that the entire city will have to move to "high" in the coming days.
He told Sky News, “In our city … the average for the past seven days is 90 per 100,000. All of the indicators I have, hospital admissions, intensive care unit occupancy, the number of elderly people with cases, the prevalence of the disease, and the positivity are all going in the wrong direction.
"That said, I'm afraid it is inevitable that London has crossed a stage two trigger over the next few days."
Regarding city-wide restrictions, Mr. Khan said, “We really want to become one because we can see the complexity and confusion caused by some districts with additional restrictions and other districts with fewer restrictions.
"A lot of Londoners work in one part of the city, live in another part of the city, study in another part of the city, go to a restaurant in another part of the city, so we're really interested in going as a city."
Government data shows that while hospitalization rates in London for Covid-19 are higher than in summer, they are nowhere near as high as in spring.
An average of 44 people are admitted to hospitals across London every day. This compared to lows of five in early August and nearly 750 in early April.
It suggests London will not be ranked Tier 2 as other parts of England with high infection rates have escaped stricter restrictions because their hospitalization is not at the breaking point.
Once approvals rise, it appears that cases are on the rise in those over 60, which is cause for concern. This was explained by Professor Chris Whitty at the briefing on Downing Street on Monday evening.
Nottingham, which had the highest infection rate several days before the tiered strategy was announced, was spared Tier 3 because "hospitals are not full" and "most cases are among younger people," suggested David Mellen, chairman of Nottingham City Council.
Cases are increasing in London, but this only appears to be the case in younger populations based on hospital data
An average of 44 people are admitted to hospitals across London every day. This compared to lows of five in early August and nearly 750 in early April
What are the three tires?
TIER 1 / MEDIUM: This applies to areas where national restrictions still exist.
- You are not allowed to socialize in groups larger than 6 people inside or outside
- Certain companies need to ensure that customers only consume food and drink while seated and close between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m.
- Companies and venues that sell groceries for consumption off-site can do so after 10 p.m. as long as it is a take-out service
- Places of worship remain open, subject to the rule of 6
- Weddings and funerals can be held with restrictions on the number of participants
- Exercise classes and organized sports can still take place outdoors or indoors with rule 6
TIER 2 / HIGH: In addition to the restrictions in the alert level:
- You must not come in contact with anyone outside of your household or support bubbles indoors
- You are not allowed to socialize in a group of more than 6 people outdoors, not even in a garden
- Exercise classes and organized sports can still take place outdoors. These are only allowed indoors if it is possible for people not to mix with people they do not live with or with whom they do not share a support bubble, or if they practice youth or disabled sports
- You can still travel to venues or facilities that are open, work, or have access to education, but try to reduce the number of trips you make if possible
TIER 3 / VERY HIGH: At least this means:
- You must not come into contact with anyone indoors or in a private garden with whom you do not live together or with whom you have formed a support bubble
- You are not allowed to socialize in a group of more than 6 people in an outdoor public area such as a park
- Pubs and bars have to close and can only stay open where they function like a restaurant, which means extensive meals are served
- Places of worship remain open, but mixing in the household is not permitted
- Weddings (but not receptions) and funerals may limit the number of participants
- You should avoid staying in any other part of the UK if you live in a very high alert area
The government will also try to arrange additional interventions in consultation with local authorities.
Mr Khan has stated that he will agree to Sir Keir Starmer's call for a brief, rapid lockdown on the national coronavirus with immediate effect.
"A brief national 'hiatus' – as recommended by SAGE experts – will save lives, protect the NHS and aid our economic recovery by preventing prolonged restrictions that would otherwise be inevitable," Mr Khan tweeted.
Union leader Sir Keir called for a two or three week hiatus to break the infection cycle and prevent the NHS from becoming overwhelmed, which greatly exacerbates his criticism of the government.
Two of the government's scientific advisors said they could prevent thousands of deaths in the long term.
Sir Keir told reporters on Tuesday: “There is no time to give the prime minister the benefit of the doubt. The government's plan just isn't working. Another course is required. & # 39;
“If we don't do this, we could sleep into a long and bleak winter. This decision must now be made by the Prime Minister. I ask him to do so. & # 39;
Councilor Kieron Williams, chairman of the Southwark Council for Labor and Cooperatives, is also helping lock down a circuit breaker this month.
He said: “With positive cases growing at a worrying rate in Southwark and across London, I urge the government to urgently install a breaker.
“We absolutely have to follow the scientific advice immediately, otherwise we endanger people's health. There is no way to cover up the facts here – we are at a critical point and without immediate action the people of Southwark will die needlessly.
“I know what a worrying time this is for our residents and businesses, but a brief period of tighter restrictions could be less painful to the local economy and families than something that is essentially taking the process longer and the future lockdown cases at risk continue to increase over Christmas. & # 39;
Some local leaders in London are keen to prevent the cases from spiraling out again. Tower Hamlets residents, with the twelfth highest infection rate in London, are urged to stop mixing.
The district's mayor, John Biggs, urged households not to meet two weeks ago "unless absolutely necessary".
Calling the situation a matter of life and death, he said that urgent action was needed. However, his request comes independently of the national government and can therefore not be enforced by the Council.
However, the Richmond-upon-Thames Council has called for the government's data to be reviewed before any additional steps are taken, claiming the data is unreliable.
When the neighborhood rose to the top of the highest infection rate last week, city councils claimed their own research found that at least a quarter of cases in other parts of England such as Leeds, Exeter, Manchester and Durham actually tested positive.
This may be because university students in other parts of the country tested positive after moving from London, where their home address is registered.
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