How bad is the coronavirus outbreak in northeast England?

Tensions in North East England have eased today as the region adopts stricter lockdown rules that prohibit indoor socialization. However, the data shows little boundaries between areas exposed to restrictions and those escaping fate.

The data shows wide variation in the rate of coronavirus infection across the region. In some areas that don't have new rules, cases are rising faster than areas that are currently in lockdown.

It also shows that coronavirus hospitalizations across the region are at around 20 percent of their highest levels during the peak of the pandemic, and deaths have remained stable at three per day or less for 14 weeks.

Yesterday, Matt Hancock announced that residents of Northumberland, Newcastle, Gateshead, North and South Tyneside, Durham and Sunderland are banned from meeting friends indoors outside their bubble.

And while cases are highest in these regions, infections are increasing faster in some areas outside of the ban rules than in areas within the ban rules. Locals are angry that action is being taken without warning.

Local business support group NE1 Ltd said the rules "threaten the fabric" of Newcastle, that entrepreneurs were "desperate" at the "draconian restrictions" and deserved financial support to help them cope.

Data shows Hartlepool and Stockton-on-Tees saw their cases per 100,000 rise 84 percent and 71 percent respectively over the past week but are not included in today's practice, while Gateshead, Sunderland and Durham are still banned from slower growth . However, for the most part, these areas have higher overall rates – although Durhams is lower than Hartlepools.

Across the country, hospital admissions for Covid-19 patients are climbing to levels not seen since June, now at a daily average of 272, while the number of deaths is also increasing, now having an average of 30 per day after that number fell early September to a low of just seven a day.

Seven out of twelve areas in the northeast will face stricter social distancing rules starting tonight – Newcastle, Sunderland, Durham, Gateshead, Northumberland, and North and South Tyneside.

The remaining five, including Darlington, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Stockton-on-Tees, and Redcar and Cleveland, will escape the rules, though Hartlepool and Stockton have increasing infections faster than some trapped areas.

In the infection rates released by Public Health England last week, Hartlepool was listed as the second highest range in places of "increased support and concern".

The city in County Durham has an infection rate of 75.1 Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people, almost double the 40.8 per week previously, according to the latest data from PHE.

Five of the top six spots on the PHE list are all in the northeast – Middlesbrough, Stockton-on-Tees, Darlington and Redcar, and Cleveland are all below Hartlepool. All receive "extended support" but are not yet blocked.

All seven areas where the new socialization ban will apply from tonight are already on Public Health England's list of areas of intervention, as people have been advised not to socialize with anyone outside their homes.

South Tyneside is currently the worst affected, with an infection rate of 177 cases per 100,000 people, making it the second worst in the nation.

Newcastle is also in the top 10 at a rate of 157 per 100,000, and the infection rate there tripled in one week from just 52.6 on September 18.

Bolton in the northwest still has the worst infection rate in the country, with a significantly higher rate of 200 cases per 100,000.

New lockdown measures may mean that areas with many people with Covid-19 and areas with fewer cases that are only included because of their proximity are grouped together.

Hartlepool is evading today's restrictions, but its infection rate has increased significantly than that of Durham, Gateshead and Sunderland, all of which are part of the lockdown measures. Confusingly, Durham also has a lower overall rate than Hartlepool (75 versus 59 per 100,000), although Sunderlands and Gatesheads are higher.

The highest rate of the week-to-week increase was in Northumberland, where infections rose 255 percent from 22.5 per 100,000 to 79.9.

The data represent the average daily rate of positive tests for the week ended September 25 compared to the week ended September 18.

It's not clear whether an increase in testing has resulted in higher infection rates in some areas – officials insist this is not due to rising cases nationally – but data shows that Hartlepool has the average number of swab tests done per day almost doubled in one month from 111 at the end of August to 291 in mid-September.

A MP warned last month that it would be unfair to use "broad brush" tactics to impose bans that could punish people in areas where virus levels were actually relatively low.

Conservative MP David Jones told MailOnline about the application of national restrictions in general: “I can understand that the government has to do something because there is certainly an upward trend.

“But there is no boom in the whole country. There are some parts of the country like Devon, Dorset that have very little viral activity at all.

"So it seems like a very broad brush … I would have thought something more focused would be better."

The Chairman of Newcastle City Council, a member of the Labor Party, made the government's decision to impose lockdown rules on the region, apparently without consulting the local authority.

Nick Forbes told local news site Chronicle Live, “While we were discussing possible further restrictions with the government, the Secretary of State stood up again and announced the changes without telling us he would do so.

“We want to work constructively with the government, but the way these measures are communicated in the headlines and without details does not add to public confidence.

"We asked for clarity on the new restrictions, tests and support for the most affected companies."

Mr Forbes accused the government of "making it up to you over time".

And the Northumberland Police Department and Detective Inspector has also voiced her outrage at the sudden social distancing laws expected of her staff.

In a tweet today, Kim McGuinness said, & # 39; It's a shame I, community councilors and our police found out about the tightening of North East Covid restrictions on the news …

“You can't blame people for being confused when the prime minister doesn't know what's going on! The government has to do better. "

Adrian Waddell, the executive director of a business support group in Newcastle, was furious about the rules due to go into effect tonight.

He said: “The government cannot impose such draconian restrictions on companies without offering immediate and full financial support.

& # 39; The latest announcement was made by companies starting to question the validity of the lockdown measures and using the empirical evidence of restaurant closings, which the government claims are only a 3.2 percent dispersion extreme despair answered virus. These companies now carry 100 percent of the blocking load without meaningful support to compensate for this. & # 39;

Newcastle City Council cabinet member Irim Ali, Public Health Cabinet Member, warned yesterday: "The continuing surge in cases in Newcastle is alarming. We must all do our part to prevent the virus from spreading further and to smooth the curve," Chronicle reported Live.

Appealing to the public to follow guidelines and new laws to stop the spread of Covid-19, she said, “I know this is difficult and many of our communities have already sacrificed so much, but when we do not unite as one city, we will face the very real risk of taking over the virus.

"The additional measures that could be put in place as part of a full local lockdown would be disastrous for our city, our businesses and our communities."

The Prime Minister faced yet another backlash after failing to explain clearly what the new rules meant for residents of the Northeast when asked on live television this morning. Mr Johnson appeared confused when asked if people were allowed to meet friends in pub gardens.

The rules mean that people can only do this if the people they are with are part of their own household or support the bubble according to the rules in place.

Mr Johnson was convicted for failing to report this, implying that the rules would not apply to pub gardens.

Newcastle Council Chairman Mr Forbes said: “You cannot just sneak your way through situations like this – catching up has massive consequences, confuses people and undermines public health goals, but local and central governments are trying to achieve this. & # 39;

There are concerns that an influx of more than 60,000 students to the Northeast could in some cases lead to a spike as they tend to live close together in large households, socialize frequently, and may be less likely to follow social distancing rules.

There are universities in Durham, Sunderland, Newcastle and Middlesbrough and thousands of young people will have moved to the area in September.

Around 7,000 freshmen have traveled to Durham alone, according to ITV, and the university has vowed to do whatever it takes to minimize outbreaks of the virus.

Students across the country have reported being locked in their dormitories and raised concerns about the laws that allow coronavirus rules to be enforced.

In Newcastle and Northumbria, which have seen around 55,000 students returning after the summer, universities have warned that students could be expelled if they fail to adhere to social distancing rules.

Newcastle University Vice Chancellor Professor Chris Day said: "(Students who break the rules) will be the subject of a police investigation if it is serious enough," Chronicle Live reported.

"It was made very clear to them that they will also be subject to disciplinary procedures at universities," he said.

“It can range from a small fine to eviction. That was made very clear to them. & # 39;

While cases are the easiest way to measure how quickly an outbreak is growing, statistics also show that the number of people dying from Covid-19 in the northeast is now among the highest of any region in the country.

Last month – from August 27 to September 27 – NHS hospitals in the North East region confirmed 78 deaths, accounting for 23 percent of the total of 342 deaths across England during that period.

This is only lower than in the northwest, where there were 114 deaths over the same period.

For comparison: 67 people died in the Midlands, 35 in London, 33 in the South East, 11 in the East of England and four in the South West.

Of only seven hospital trusts in the country, which has recorded more than 10 deaths during that period, two were in the Northeast region – which includes the NHS teaching hospitals Yorkshire – Bradford (16) and South Tyneside and Sunderland (11) heard.

Tameside and Glossop Integrated Care in the north west of England is the worst hit NHS trust, with 40 people dying there in the past month.

Official government data shows there has been a small spike in deaths in the region, but the moving average appears to have been falling again since the third week of September when it hit three a day on September 20.

There are now an average of two coronavirus deaths per day in the Northeast, compared with seven in the Northwest and 3.6 in the West Midlands. England's national average is 10 per day, which means the northeast is one-fifth.

Hospital admissions in the North East and Yorkshire are also among the highest in England, according to official figures.

Around a quarter of all hospitalized Covid-19 patients in the country are in the region, where around a sixth of the English population lives.

According to the Ministry of Health, 441 of a total of 1,727 people are in the hospital in the northeast of the hospital.

Last month there were 491 recordings there, compared to 361 in the Midlands, 264 in London, 109 in the South East, 72 in the East and 52 in the South West.

Only the north-west of England with 552 admissions had more during this time.

The number of daily admissions rose steadily from a low of an average of seven per day in August to 70 per day by September 26th.

That puts hospital admissions at around 17 percent of the height of the crisis in April, when 402 people were admitted to the region every day.

It has increased from 47 a day the week before to 22 a day the week before, showing that more and more people with Covid-19 are becoming seriously ill.

This mirrors the national pattern for England, which shows admissions rose from a low of 38 per day on August 15 to 272 per day by September 23, the latest data.