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Experts warn the daily Covid cases in England could be up to 45,000


A hat-trick of studies confirmed today that coronavirus cases are rising in England. Up to 45,000 people get the virus every day, and the number of infections doubles in a week at the end of September.

A government-run study estimated the infection rate could be almost half what it was on the darkest days of the crisis in March and April, when scientists believe there were more than 100,000 new cases per day.

Another report by the Bureau of National Statistics estimated that 17,400 people were diagnosed with the disease a day in England alone for the week ending October 1, double what the Numbers Agency forecast last week.

And statistics released yesterday by Public Health England show that infection rates have increased in all but three areas of the country since last week. Out of a total of 149 local authorities, only Luton, Wolverhampton and Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly had fewer cases per person than last week.

Today's ONS report, based on data from the two weeks ending October 1, warns that the number of infections has risen rapidly in recent weeks. Official tests show that cases continued to rise in the first week of October, which means the estimate for the next week will likely be higher again.

If the estimate is correct, it suggests that the Department of Health's testing program is now capturing most of the actual number of cases. On October 1, 11,000 people were diagnosed – 63 percent of the ONS's new cases.

Ministers this morning admitted the spread of the disease "got out of hand" as Tory MPs warned against imposing local, never-ending bans on the "Hotel California".

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to officially announce plans to split the country into three tiers on Monday. The hardest hit areas are facing the toughest restrictions, including closing pubs and restaurants to slow the spread of the disease. However, experts from the government's SAGE group fear that the tier system is not strong enough to function.

According to reports, members of SAGE believe the planned closings of pubs and restaurants in hotspot areas will not be enough to control the virus and avoid a second wave. Some believe ministers should have pulled the trigger two or three weeks ago when it was first discussed, for a nationwide lockdown of circuit breakers in England.

The review of the Prime Minister's plans only increased after Nicola Sturgeon yesterday imposed a two-week alcohol ban in pubs and restaurants across Scotland while bars closed entirely in coronavirus hotspots. The prospect of new draconian rules across England has sparked a Tory backlash. MEPs asked the government to detail how areas subject to the strictest restrictions can be lifted.

About 609 coronavirus patients were hospitalized yesterday – an increase of a fifth a day – and hospital admissions in England injured 500 for the first time since June. They are significantly higher in the northern regions, where local authorities fear they will peak before the end of this month, seen in March and April.

Another 17,540 cases and 77 deaths were reported nationwide yesterday, with the number of people testing positive for the disease each day nearly tripling in 14 days. Two weeks ago, on September 24th, there were 6,634 diagnoses of the disease. This is the most recent reliable point of reference after a counting error at Public Health England (PHE) invalidated last week's data.

The REACT study, conducted by Imperial College London, estimates that 45,000 new cases of coronavirus have emerged in England daily for the week leading up to October 5 – almost half the projected transmission rate on the darkest days of the crisis in April

A report from the Office of National Statistics found that in the week leading up to October 1, more than 0.4 percent of people in England were infected with Covid-19. This was the highest estimate since the data began in May. It suggests that one in 240 people has the disease, although this varies widely across the country

A report from the Office of National Statistics found that in the week leading up to October 1, more than 0.4 percent of people in England were infected with Covid-19. This was the highest estimate since the data began in May. It suggests that one in 240 people has the disease, although this varies widely across the country

A monitoring report released yesterday by Public Health England showed that only three places in the whole of England are not seeing a surge in Covid-19 infections - Luton, Wolverhampton and Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly

A monitoring report published yesterday by Public Health England showed that only three places in the whole of England are not seeing a surge in Covid-19 infections – Luton, Wolverhampton and Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly

The excitement about the government's coronavirus strategy was as follows:

  • Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that the UK economy grew just 2.1 percent in August, much less than analysts forecast and well below the 6.4 percent expansion recorded in July.
  • Rishi Sunak will today announce a new local vacation program that is expected to pay two-thirds of the wages of employees disabled due to lockdowns.
  • The number of people suffering from coronavirus in England every day more than doubled to an incredible 17,400 in the last week of September, according to the ONS.
  • Shadow Chancellor Anneliese Dodds claimed that the Chancellor's Jobs Support Scheme forced companies to flip a coin on who stays and who leaves because it is cheaper to employ one worker than two to do the same hours.
  • Mr. Zahawi confirmed that evidence presented to MPs showed that 30 percent of coronavirus infections are caused by hospitality.
  • Former Tory Treasury Secretary Lord O & # 39; Neill called for "real decentralization" to improve the coronavirus response and a "bespoke" version of the vacation program.
  • Union leader Sir Keir Starmer, who wrote in the Daily Telegraph, said the government had "lost control of the virus" and urged ministers to "get a grip".
  • It was revealed that Luton, Wolverhampton and Cornwall, as well as the Isles of Scilly, were the only three places in England to see a drop in Covid-19 infection rates over the past week – and only one of them is in one local lock.
Boris Johnson is expected to officially announce plans to split the country into three tiers on Monday. The hardest hit areas are on the top level and are expected to close pubs and restaurants to help slow the spread of the disease

Boris Johnson is expected to officially announce plans to split the country into three tiers on Monday. The hardest hit areas are on the top level and are expected to close pubs and restaurants to help slow the spread of the disease

Coronavirus cases double to more than 17,000 a day in England in a week

The number of people who contract coronavirus in England every day more than doubled to an incredible 17,400 in the last week of September, according to the ONS.

Weekly data from the Office of National Statistics warn that 224,400 people were infected with the virus as of October 1, up from 116,000 the week before.

It comes as MPs warned that the virus is now "out of control" in the UK and the government hasn't made any new announcements about what it's doing this week.

Today's report warns that the number of infections has increased rapidly in recent weeks.

According to the ONS, there is "significant variation" between different regions of the country with the highest infection rates in the Northwest, Northeast and Yorkshire. More than one percent of the population in these regions – one in 100 people – was likely infected earlier this month.

Adolescents and young adults between the ages of 11 and 25 are driving the disruptive infection rates even higher.

If the estimate is correct, it suggests that the Department of Health's testing program is now picking up the majority of the actual cases, managing to diagnose 11,000 people on October 1st.

And what follows is a week of increasingly worrying data showing hospital admissions are rising in the north, where by the end of the month they could beat April levels and daily deaths pick up again.

Pressure on the government to take tough action is mounting after infection rates continued to rise, with the north of England particularly hard hit.

Skills Minister Gillian Keegan told the BBC's Question Time program last night that two-thirds of hospitalizations are in the north-west and north-east of England and Yorkshire.

She said, "This is serious, it's getting out of control and we have to do something to get it back under control."

Her strong admission came amid reports that experts from the Government's Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE) fear that Mr Johnson's proposed animal system does not go far enough.

According to the Guardian, members of SAGE believe the proposed closings of pubs and restaurants in hotspot areas won't be enough to get the virus under control and avoid a second wave.

Some believe ministers should have pulled the trigger two or three weeks ago when it was first discussed, for a nationwide lockdown of circuit breakers in England.

The review of the Prime Minister's plans only increased after Nicola Sturgeon yesterday imposed a two-week alcohol ban in pubs and restaurants across Scotland while bars closed entirely in coronavirus hotspots.

The prospect of new draconian rules across England has sparked a Tory backlash. MEPs asked the government to detail how areas subject to the strictest restrictions can be lifted.

Ministers were charged with using weak data after relying on numbers based on fewer than 100 pubs to justify the possible closings of tens of thousands of venues in the north of England.

Jake Berry, the former Northern Powerhouse minister, told the Telegraph, “The point is that they show not only how to enter a step, but also how to exit a step because no one is in a“ Hotel California Lockdown “wants to be implicated in the damage that will cause the local economy. & # 39;

There is also a growing revolt among northern political leaders as Andy Burnham, the Labor Mayor of Greater Manchester pledged to "challenge new rules in every possible way" if the government closes businesses "without adequate compensation ".

According to the latest estimates by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), there were an average of 17,200 new cases of Covid-19 per day in private households in England between September 25 and October 1.

This is an increase of an estimated 8,400 new cases per day between September 18 and 24. The ONS stated that the rate of new infections has increased significantly in the past six weeks. The figures do not include people in hospitals, nursing homes or other institutional facilities.

Mr Johnson is due to meet at Downing Street today to work out the final details of his plans.

It came as Chancellor Rishi Sunak was preparing to announce a new local vacation program to create jobs in restricted areas and when ministers reacted to Mr Johnson's plans leaked to the press four days prior to their announcement.

Economy Minister Nadhim Zahawi said such leaks are "corrosive" and create "confusion" as he insisted that "the right thing is to wait for a decision".

Meanwhile, it emerged overnight that hundreds of thousands of vulnerable Britons may need to shelter indoors for months. Fresh coronavirus curbs are likely to last until at least April to prevent the NHS from collapsing.

It is believed that advice to the clinically vulnerable to avoid contact with others could be included in the top tier of the PM's local traffic light lockout system.

A decision on shielding is pending, according to The Times, and there are fears that such a move could harm the mental health of people who would be forced to spend months at home alone.

England's assistant chief physician, Jenny Harries, is to lead work on a “bespoke shielding system” to replace blanket rules with personalized advice, depending on a person's vulnerability.

Chris Whitty, chief medical officer, said lockdown measures could be required for an additional six months amid fears the number of people in intensive care could top the April high in the north of England by early next month.

Rishi Sunak will announce a new local vacation program TODAY

Rishi Sunak is set to announce a new local vacation program today that is expected to pay two-thirds of the wages of employees disabled due to bans.

The Treasury Department has confirmed that the Chancellor will later announce how he intends to provide a safety net for businesses that may have to shut down in the coming weeks.

The promise of new support for jobs comes as the government prepares to unveil its new three-tier strategy for local lockdowns next week.

Parts of the country assigned to the highest level are to be informed that pubs, restaurants and cafes must close in order to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

The prospect of widespread closings in the hotel industry in hotspot areas has led to warnings of massive job losses and fueled the Chancellor's call for new support.

However, all of the new spending announced by Mr Sunak will raise further concerns about pressure on public finances as borrowing is already set at over £ 300bn this year.

The vacation plans came about when the National Statistics Office announced that the UK economy grew only 2.1 percent in August – much less than expected.

And senior physician Katherine Henderson, director of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, warned the NHS against imploding this winter if "effective precautions" are not taken.

When the coronavirus lockdown began in March, 2.2 million people were classified as "extremely vulnerable" due to health problems. You should stay at home and avoid any contact with others.

Studies then found that depression and anxiety were far more common among shielders than those who did not.

People at risk were also more concerned about food and other essentials.

A source in Whitehall told The Times that a new, more personal approach was planned.

"The intent is not to bring the same program back, but to be more focused in the actions and what you ask people to do," they said.

"It is a great request to cocoon people up because of a potentially long winter." Instead, people might be asked to take personal precautions, such as: B. Avoid shopping during busy times. An algorithm developed by Oxford University could be used to decide who should take the strictest precautions.

In a presentation to more than 130 MPs, Professor Whitty said new vaccines and treatments might be available in January, but added that the crisis would not subside until April.

He did the briefing as part of preparing for new lockdown measures due to be imposed on Monday.

Professor Whitty said the number of people in intensive care in the north of England could go up to 304 in 22 days. That would be two more than the original high in April.

When asked how long the restrictions would last, Professor Whitty said it could be anywhere from five to six months.

One MP told The Times: “He said April would really get better if the seasons worked in their favor. The message was: "It hasn't been like this for five years."

Sir Graham Brady, who spoke out against the government in the parliamentary vote on the six-rule restrictions earlier this week, warned of new measures.

He said he hoped any new measures would be "proportionate" and backed up by "the right evidence".

The influential MP added that if the government wanted to introduce further restrictions on the North and Midlands, it would be "essential" that Parliament "approve or reject" the plans.

It came as No10 faced a concerted backlash from local leaders and MPs over plans to put even stricter restrictions on millions of people in the north from next week.

A Tory MP said the data was "cobbled together" to justify the pub closings. It used a three-month-old survey in the US and cherry-picked numbers.

The slide above shows that, according to Public Health England, 41 percent of coronavirus infections in the UK have been linked to pubs, bars or restaurants

These graphics were also shown at the briefing. Suggested infections in all age groups are higher in the north of England than in the rest of the country

Sir Keir Starmer accused Boris Johnson of causing "confusion, chaos and injustice" by revealing the exact measures that will be announced next week while still being discussed.

Prof Whitty yesterday informed 149 North and Midlands MPs that a "significant proportion" of coronavirus exposure is in the hospitality industry.

Anger over pubs crisis "shady data": Ministers used numbers based on fewer than 100 venues

Ministers were charged with using weak data after relying on numbers based on fewer than 100 pubs to justify the possible closings of tens of thousands of venues in the north of England.

It came as No10 faced a concerted backlash from local leaders and MPs over plans to put even stricter restrictions on millions of people in the north from next week.

A Tory MP said the data was "cobbled together" to justify the pub closings. It used a three-month-old survey in the US and cherry-picked numbers.

Sir Keir Starmer accused Boris Johnson of causing "confusion, chaos and injustice" by revealing the exact measures that will be announced next week while still being discussed.

Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty yesterday informed 149 MPs from the North and Midlands that a "significant proportion" of exposure to coronavirus is in the hospitality industry.

He showed them a table showing that 32 percent of the broadcast could be in pubs, bars, cafes and restaurants, with just 2.6 percent at home.

However, MPs complained that the information was "selective" and clearly served government purposes.

They pointed out that the NHS test and trace numbers show that 75.3 percent of broadcasts are at home, with just 5.5 percent in pubs, restaurants and churches.

He showed them a table showing that 32 percent of the broadcast could be in pubs, bars, cafes and restaurants, with just 2.6 percent at home.

However, MPs complained that the information was "selective" and clearly served government purposes.

They pointed out that the NHS test and trace numbers show that 75.3 percent of broadcasts are at home, with just 5.5 percent in pubs, restaurants and churches.

Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick yesterday confirmed plans to close pubs and restaurants in hotspot areas.

"It is correct to say that the number of cases is rising rapidly in the northwest and northeast, as well as in a number of cities, particularly the Midlands like Nottingham, and this is a serious situation," he said.

& # 39; We are currently considering what steps to take, apparently under the advice of our scientific and medical advisors, and a decision will be made shortly.

"But I can't tell you exactly what's going to happen right now."

When asked if there will be an announcement related to the hospitality industry next week, Jenrick said, “We're looking at the evidence. In some parts of the country the number of cases is increasing very quickly and we take this very seriously.

"If we have to take further steps, we will of course take very seriously how we can help and support these individual companies."

Dr. Commenting on the need to press ahead with lockdown measures, Henderson said: "If we don't take effective precautions, Covid will continue its explosion across the country, a devastating consequence of which could be the implosion of our NHS this winter."

Mr Hancock reiterated their concern when he told the NHS Providers Annual Conference yesterday: “We are at a dangerous moment in the course of this pandemic.

"I am very concerned about the increase in cases, particularly in the north west and north east of England, parts of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland and parts of Yorkshire."

He added: “In parts of the country the situation is getting very serious again.

Hospital stays in the Northwest double roughly every two weeks. They are up 57 percent in the last week alone.

"Unfortunately, hospital stays are increasing sharply in those over 60, and the number of coronavirus deaths is also increasing."

Mr Hancock suggested that localized raids will be a part of life until a working vaccine is found and can be rolled out on a large scale.

He said: "We know from bitter experience that the more the coronavirus spreads, the more difficult it is to do all the other important work of the NHS."

He continued, “The message to the public must be that we all have a role to play in fighting this virus.

"Our strategy is simple: quell the virus and support the economy, education and the NHS until a vaccine can keep us safe."

Mr Hancock said his "message to everyone in the NHS is that we can and we will".

"Unfortunately there will be more difficult times but we will do it together," he added.

Coronavirus cases are on the rise in much of Europe - although Spain, which used to be the hardest hit country on the continent, is now seeing a decline in the rate of infection

Coronavirus cases are on the rise in much of Europe – although Spain, which used to be the hardest hit country on the continent, is now seeing a decline in the rate of infection

Official data also shows how the number of patients admitted to the intensive care unit has remained stable over the past three weeks

Official data also shows how the number of patients admitted to the intensive care unit has remained stable over the past three weeks

Separate numbers show that the number of patients who die from Covid-19 within 28 days of testing positive has increased sharply since June, while the same number has not increased as much for 60 days

Separate numbers show that the number of patients who die from Covid-19 within 28 days of testing positive has increased sharply since June, while the same number has not increased as much for 60 days

Who Kills Covid-19: Most of the victims since June were over 80 years old, followed by patients in their 70s, 60s and then 50s

Who Kills Covid-19: Most of the victims since June were over 80 years old, followed by patients in their 70s, 60s and then 50s

A heat map shows which areas of England have suffered the most Covid-19 victims since June, with the north-east, north-west, Birmingham and parts of east London being hit hard. The data is based on patients who died within 28 days of testing positive

A heat map shows which areas of England have suffered the most Covid-19 victims since June, with the north-east, north-west, Birmingham and parts of east London being hit hard. The data is based on patients who died within 28 days of testing positive

Statistics based on patients who die of Covid-19 within 60 days of testing positive show that most of the victims are in the northwest

Statistics based on patients who die of Covid-19 within 60 days of testing positive show that most of the victims are in the northwest

Separate data shows how different the death rate is in England. The death rate shows how many Covid-19 patients have died per 100,000 people in each agency since June

Separate data shows how different the death rate is in England. The death rate shows how many Covid-19 patients have died per 100,000 people in each agency since June

Schools carry the most Covid-19 outbreaks, according to PHE data. Cases diagnosed in university students are also increasing

Schools carry the most Covid-19 outbreaks, according to PHE data. Cases diagnosed in university students are also increasing

PHE data released today showed that infected people were most likely to come into contact with the family they live with, followed by friends who visited and people during their leisure time - including pubs and restaurants

PHE data released today showed that infected people were most likely to come into contact with the family they live with, followed by friends who visited and people during their leisure time – including pubs and restaurants

PHE data shows that some areas of the northwest have recorded more than 1,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people since June - that's 1 percent of those who tested positive

PHE data shows that some areas of the northwest have recorded more than 1,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people since June – that's 1 percent of those who tested positive

How the rate of Covid-19 increases the most in people aged 20 and over from every socio-economic background (bottom left). They rise most in the most deprived people in their thirties and in children aged 10-16 (bottom right and top left) - but the opposite is true for people aged 17-19 (top right).

How the rate of Covid-19 increases the most in people aged 20 and over from every socio-economic background (bottom left). They rise most in the most deprived people in their thirties and in children aged 10-16 (bottom right and top left) – but the opposite is true for people aged 17-19 (top right).

Data from PHE shows how Covid-19 infection rates are increasing in different regions between different races

Data from PHE shows how Covid-19 infection rates are increasing in different regions between different races

Separate data shows how infection rates are increasing between different age groups in different regions of England

Separate data shows how infection rates are increasing between different age groups in different regions of England

Two-thirds of the public would support the Scottish-style lockdown of circuit breakers across the country

An exclusive survey for MailOnline by Redfield & Wilton Strategies has found strong support for a nationwide "brief sharp shock" of tough restrictions across the country to break transmission chains

An exclusive survey for MailOnline by Redfield & Wilton Strategies has found strong support for a nationwide "brief sharp shock" of tough restrictions across the country to break transmission chains

Almost two-thirds of the public would support a Scottish-style shutdown if Boris Johnson prepares to close pubs and restaurants in the north.

An exclusive survey for MailOnline has found strong support for a "brief sharp shock" of harsh restrictions across the country to break transmission chains.

Redfield & Wilton Strategies' research also uncovered widespread confusion and dissatisfaction with the currently complex local curbs.

Around a third of the birtons aren't sure they know the rules in their area, while half admit they didn't follow them completely.

His comments led to allegations that he tried to get Mr Johnson to shut down the hospitality sector in the north.

Dr. Helen Stokes-Lampard, chair of the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges, which represents the 24 Medical Royal Colleges in the UK and Ireland, said people must adhere to strict restrictions or the NHS "may not be able to handle".

She told BBC Breakfast: "Given the recent dramatic increase in both the number of cases and hospital admissions, it is clear that we could soon be back where we were in April if we are not all extremely careful."

Professor John Edmunds, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage), denied that scientists were imposing any measures on Mr Johnson.

He said a brief, sharp shock was needed to "prevent the epidemic from spiraling out of control and overwhelming the health service in the next few weeks or months."

“We are not far from that. I hate to be gloomy, but in the north of England we are not far from the health system becoming overloaded, ”he said in a webinar for the Royal Society of Medicine.

Prof. Edmunds denied that scientists would "put a gun to the Prime Minister's head". "It's the virus that puts a gun to the prime minister's head," he said.

Leaked documents suggest the Prime Minister is ready to introduce a new three-tier system of lockdown measures designed to make the system more understandable.

Areas with relatively low infection rates are placed in the first tier, where only national restrictions such as curfew of 6 p.m. and 10 p.m. apply.

Tier 2 also includes bans on house calls and contact with other households indoors.

Tier 3 options include a total hospitality closure, a ban on overnight stays, and the closure of venues such as movie theaters.

A Treasury Department source said the measures should be "as cautious as possible".

There have also been reports of a rift between Mr Hancock and Mr Sunak, with the Chancellor allegedly angry that the government is pushing ahead with its proposed "traffic light" system of restrictions for 13 million people in the north of England.

Rather than introducing even more complicated curbs, Sunak believes that the government should take a clear path back to "normalcy" to prevent further destruction of the economy.

The top tier of the new traffic light measures are expected to apply to Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle – three cities where infection has continued to rise despite other restrictions.

Hospitality businesses are to be closed as part of the new measures, which are expected to be confirmed on Monday and imposed from Wednesday. However, shops, offices and schools will remain open.

Ministers are still pondering the fate of hairdressers and recreational facilities – but Mr Sunak will come up with a special vacation compensation system for workers and companies hit by the curb.

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