A second wave of Covid-19 in the UK would be nowhere near as bad as the first as we can now better contain and treat the virus, government officials have claimed.
The experts believe that a combination of local bans, social distancing measures, and medical breakthroughs would significantly lower both the death rate and the number of cases.
Hopes are also high that vaccines may be available as early as next spring, with a "long pipeline" of promising bursts being tested.
In addition, early signs from the southern hemisphere suggest that a flu outbreak will be less severe than in previous years.
The top Belgian scientist Jean-Luc Gala said the rising infection rate in Belgium was "completely normal" and the ongoing lockdown measures should be relaxed.
He told the French-language newspaper La Dernière Heure that "people are no longer suffering from the coronavirus, but measures to stop it".
He said people shouldn't worry as the virus "circulates in a category that doesn't suffer from it, young people who at worst have small symptoms, at best nothing".
He said that people who are moderately infected by the virus are beneficial as it contributes to widespread immunity.
Ministers had been concerned that a combination of flu and corona cases would prove disastrous for the NHS this winter.
However, officials also expect that advice on hygiene and social distancing during the corona pandemic will suppress flu rates – as will the trend to work from home and avoid public transportation.
In Australia and New Zealand, which tend to be good indicators of how the flu is developing in the UK, cases have remained low year on year.
Dr. David Nabarro (pictured), who appeared before the Foreign Affairs Committee, told MPs: "It's a terrible situation … a health problem is so out of control that it's not just into a recession but the world an enormous economic contraction plunges. "
When Spain, France and Belgium hit 18 cases per 100,000 cases (which the UK did in early September), they saw up to a four-fold increase in approvals. However, Belgium was able to reduce its hospital rate by reintroducing strict measures
In August, the hospitalization rate in Belgium doubled from one in 100,000 to two in 100,000, but has since been suppressed
Hospital stay rates remain low in the UK, falling from a high of more than 30 per 100,000 people to less than one in 100,000, but officials fear they will rise again soon
Government officials believe that while cases are on the rise again, the curve will be flatter compared to March and April. Pictured: Health Secretary Matt Hancock on September 14th
Officials still believe the next six months will be "very difficult" for the NHS and the country as a whole – but their cautious optimism contrasts sharply with recent warnings from medical unions and medical schools claiming hospitals cannot comply cope with a second wave.
A survey by the British Medical Association this week found that 86 percent of doctors expect the coronavirus to rise again in the next six months.
However, government officials believe that while cases are picking up again, the curve will be flatter compared to March and April.
Part of the reason for this prediction is the fact that we now know so much more about the virus. This includes medical advances such as the discovery that the steroid treatment dexamethasone can reduce the risk of death from coronavirus by a third.
Officials also say local lockdowns – and the beleaguered testing and tracing service – have successfully prevented recent outbreaks from spreading further.
The top Belgian scientist Jean-Luc Gala said the rising infection rate in Belgium was "completely normal" and the ongoing lockdown measures should be relaxed. Pictured: Daily coronavirus cases in Belgium
However, they stress that it is wrong to assume that the virus only circulates among young people. While many new cases are in patients between the ages of 17 and 21, the latest statistics show that infection rates for people in their fifties and sixties are now as high as they were for patients in their twenties a few weeks ago.
Yesterday's health ministry figures showed there had been 3,105 new coronavirus cases in the past 24 hours, compared to around 5,000 a day at the height of the crisis. There were another 27 deaths, up from nine on Tuesday.
A special envoy for the World Health Organization said yesterday that the "grotesque" global outlook is "far worse than any science fiction".
Dr. David Nabarro, who appeared before the Foreign Affairs Committee, told MPs: "It's a terrible situation … a health problem is so out of control that it's plunging the world into not only a recession but a huge economic one." Contraction that would likely double the number of poor people, double the number of malnourished (and) cause hundreds of millions of small businesses to go bankrupt. & # 39;
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