Covid-19 outbreaks are increasing fastest in Hull, Bath and Derby

Covid-19 outbreaks are increasing fastest in Hull, Derby and Bath. According to official data, only 20 of the 150 authorities in England have seen a decrease in infections over the past week.

Hull and Derby saw their coronavirus epidemics almost double in the seven-day period ending October 25. The 7-day infection rate rose to 279 and 329 cases per 100,000 people, respectively.

Both cities, along with the rest of Staffordshire and Derbyshire, will move from Tier 1 to Tier 2 from Saturday to curb the surge in infections. This was announced yesterday as England moved one step closer to full national lockdown.

However, most of the authorities where epidemics have increased the most are still in the first stage, where only the 6pm and 10pm curfew only applies. Scientists have argued that these rules are not strict enough to reduce the outbreak. Top government advisors warn that current growth is "very bleak".

For example, North Somerset and Bath, as well as North East Somerset, where cases rose 83 percent and 70 percent in a week, respectively, need to face even tighter anti-virus restrictions. Despite the warnings, the coronavirus crisis is "accelerating" in the south of the country.

Figures from Public Health England's weekly surveillance report show that the infection rate in Nottingham has fallen by 30 percent. Despite the city's shrinking outbreak, it will be placed under the toughest Tier 3 restrictions starting tomorrow along with the rest of the county.

And the data provided more evidence that the toughest lockdown measures work. Liverpool, Knowsley, Sefton and St. Helens are all seeing drops in their weekly coronavirus infection rates. The entire Merseyside area has been closed since October 14th.

It suggests that the brutal restrictions prohibiting people from being in contact with anyone outside of their own household, and imposing the closure of many pubs, bars, and in some cases gyms, are starting to work. However, scientists say that the real effects of the measure only become clear after a few weeks.

Boris Johnson is again being pressured by his doctors to impose a nationwide shutdown before and after Christmas so families can gather together over the holidays. Dominic Raab hinted today that No10 could introduce a new set of even stricter Tier 4 restrictions and declined to rule out a national lockdown.

It was announced yesterday that another 16 authorities will be drawn into the second stage from Saturday. Some of them were among the 20 places where the outbreaks have worsened significantly, according to Public Health England (PHE) data.

PHE data is based on the number of positive smears in the week of October 19-25. The new infections can be divided by the population size for each area to get a fall rate per 100,000 people. This allows numbers to be compared accurately between different areas.

For example, in Kingston upon Hull, 279 new cases per 100,000 people were diagnosed over that seven day period. The week before it was 145, which corresponds to an increase of 93 percent.

Similarly, the infection rate in Derby City rose 92 percent from 171 to 328 cases per 100,000. This suggests that the outbreak is doubling every seven days in these locations.

However, more tests may have been requested in both areas to help contain the virus. So if you just look at growth, you may not get the full picture. Health Department statistics according to which puncture tests carried out by local authorities are only valid until October 21, which means it is impossible to say exactly how much the numbers were skewed by smears over those fortnight.

Earlier this week, Derby's health director Dr. Robyn Dewis is urging all of the city's 259,000 residents to adhere to Tier 2 restrictions.

The council was waiting to be promoted to the higher level, which the ministers confirmed last night. Amber Valley, Bolsover, Derbyshire Dales, Derby City, South Derbyshire and the entire High Peak will move to the second stage starting Saturday.

Dr. Dewis told MailOnline: “I never look forward to asking our residents to put restrictions on their daily lives, but I feel it is imperative that we take action to reduce the spread of the virus.

“We have seen rapid growth across the city, with all stations affected. What is important is that we are now seeing a significant increase in those over 60 who are infected. & # 39;

Outbreaks also increased sharply in North Somerset (83 percent more) and Bath and North East Somerset (70 percent more).

However, their infection rates of 130.2 and 191 are currently well below the UK average (230 per 100,000). This could explain why they are staying on medium Tier 1 alert.

Matt Lenny, director of public health at North Somerset Council, said in a statement: “Analysis of the latest case data also shows that there is no clear pattern of infection in local communities.

& # 39; The case data shows us that the virus is widespread in our community and we are only seeing higher rates of infection in younger people.

“I urge every North Somerset resident to make the right decisions as they go about their daily lives.

“We're at a critical point as cases are increasing and people are mingling and spending more time indoors. We should all pretend we already have the virus and change our behavior to reduce the spread. & # 39;

While locations in Somerset, England are not considered Covid-10 hotspots, they can if action is not taken sooner rather than later to slow the spread of growth.

Experts have previously said that the rate at which an outbreak is growing – rather than its current size – is the most important factor when considering the severity of the situation in a given area.

Ministers are expected to analyze a "basket" of indicators to help make decisions about Covid-19 restrictions, including the rate of infection, hospital admissions and the rate of growth.

In South Gloucestershire in the southwest and Herefordshire in the West Midlands, outbreaks also increased rapidly by around 60 percent in a week. However, their infection rates are also below the national average and are currently 192 and 86, respectively.

The figures show that the "second wave" is now affecting every corner of England, not just the north.

Scientists warned this week that infections are "getting faster" in the south.

A worrying government-funded study by Imperial College London found the outbreak appears to be fastest in London and the south-west, where the rules are comparatively lax, and slowest in the northern regions with the most stringent restrictions.

They predicted that the R-rate – the average number of people infected by each carrier – is also higher than two in the Southeast, East, and Southwest, which have mostly escaped tough local lockdowns.

But the R-rate in the capital is three higher than anywhere else in England. For comparison, the experts stated that the national R-rate is 1.6. Cases double every three days compared to every nine days in the rest of England, the study said.

The PHE data shows that only 20 out of 149 councils saw their Covid-19 infection rates decline in the week leading up to October 25. For comparison: 23 recorded a decline the week before.

In some major cities, infection rates fell in the week leading up to October 25th. These include Nottingham (minus 30 percent), Liverpool (minus 21 percent), Sheffield (minus 2.46 percent) and Leeds (minus 1.22 percent). .

Even so, Nottingham and Leeds will come under tier three restrictions this weekend. And there is no clear path for Liverpool and Sheffield to get out of their local "locks".

Liverpool and the rest of Merseyside, including Halton, Knowsley, Sefton, St. Helens and Wirral, jumped straight into the third tier when the tiered system went into effect on October 14th. In all of these places, infection rates have dropped in the past week, with the exception of Wirral, where cases only rose 6 percent.

A number of locations under Tier Two have also seen decreases in infection rates, including York (20 percent), South Tyneside (5 percent), and Newcastle upon Tyne (a slight minus 0.42 percent).

Parts of London – Camden (down 10 percent), Hackney and City of London (down 4.60 percent), and Richmond upon Thames (down 3.96 percent) – also saw improvements in infection rates. These areas have some of the highest infection rates in London, suggesting residents may have controlled the coronavirus.

However, it is believed that London could enter Tier 3 lockdown within two weeks, provided that infection rates across the capital do not drop significantly.

Londoners are currently banned from meeting anyone indoors with whom they do not live together.

However, London Mayor Sadiq Khan is putting pressure on number 10 to move the city to Stage Three, although infection rates vary across 32 different boroughs – from 223 positive tests per 100,000 residents in Ealing in the last week to 103 per 100,000 in Lewisham.

It comes after the Government's Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage) reportedly said this week that all of England could be locked in Stage Three by mid-December if a national lockdown is not passed beforehand.

They said virus rates across the country will go beyond levels seen in areas that were rated "very high" as early as the Christmas season, The Sun reported, with "a government source" saying "The latest Sage numbers are utterly bleak. & # 39;

SAGE has again pressured Boris Johnson to impose stricter restrictions, as it warned that up to 85,000 people could die in a second wave. A "reasonable worst-case scenario" proposed by SAGE suggested that daily deaths could stay above 500 for three months or more through next March.

Almost 60 percent of the population – around 32.6 million – will be subject to stricter rules by Monday

Independent experts told MailOnline that it is likely that most places in England that are in Tier 1 will switch to Tier 2 by Christmas, as curfew after 6pm and 10pm is insufficient to eradicate increasing infections.

Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and a member of Independent Sage, said: “Unfortunately we have allowed the infection to get out of hand and as a result we have to change this around or it will just keep going rise, more will become seriously ill and more people will die.

“The sooner we impose stricter restrictions, the better. I see MPs say, "The rates in my region are low so we shouldn't do anything". It's not about whether the fall is low, it's about whether they are increasing rapidly.

"We saw very clearly in March that it is better sooner than later. We should really do that now, we really have no time to lose."

However, Professor McKee stressed that with stricter restrictions, three essential things are required – curbing indoor social mixing, where the virus can easily spread, mental health support, and a functioning testing and tracking system. At the moment, the British NHS Test and Trace does not achieve the promised status of "world hit".

Professor McKee added, “As long as infections are increasing, we have a big problem. Simply because of the nature of exponential growth. It's a simple nature of math. Even if the infections increase only slightly, the rate of growth increases faster.

“On the other hand, if we can take really tough measures to keep people from mingling with one another, there can be a sharp decline in a relatively short period of time.

Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, said: “The Tier One restrictions are clearly not working to suppress the epidemic. I suspect the government would decide to increase in most regions of the country and move into stage two at least next month. And some of the current tier two will switch to tier three.

"The interesting thing is that the northern cities are not going as fast as they used to be. And in some of these cities like Liverpool, it seems to be a bit falling already.

"I think it's a little early to say if these Level 2 / Tier 3 levels aren't working." The bottom line is that higher restrictions may work, but it's too early to be sure.

"The rural areas of the southern small town are currently seeing many of the current increases. It is very evident that cases are increasing in the south now. Almost everywhere in between is on the rise.

"The question is, when do they decide that this is no longer acceptable or tolerable and then increase the restrictions in those areas."

Simon Clarke, Associate Professor of Cell Microbiology at the University of Reading, said, “Are local restrictions sufficient? They should be, but the problem is not tier two to three as much as one to two. We know in certain parts of the country that this is not happening quickly enough.

“My gut feeling is that we are heading for tightening restrictions by the New Year. I think it will be something like tier three or maybe closer. I think we're going to add a level 4. But it's just a guess. "

The UK is slowly moving closer to a de facto lockdown each day, with the UK confirming an additional 23,065 positive test results and 280 deaths yesterday.

The number of cases is up 8.6 percent from the 21,242 announced last Thursday, while the number of deaths has increased by 48 percent.

Boris Johnson is again under pressure from his doctors to impose a nationwide shutdown before and after Christmas so families can gather over the holidays

Boris Johnson is again under pressure from his doctors to impose a nationwide shutdown before and after Christmas to allow families to congregate over the holidays, and to close the sources so Sadiq Khan expects the capital to close immediately.

Senior figures warn that Britain's three tier system is not enough to beat the numbers. Deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam is reportedly starting to change his mind on whether regional lockdowns will suppress the virus. He supported the move at a press conference no.10 last week

He presented data to a meeting of Covid-O, the cabinet's subcommittee on coronavirus, which a source described as "very, very bleak" and said daily hospital admissions had hit 1,404, their highest level since April.

Allowing people to visit family for Christmas will be a spreader event that can cause a surge in infections many times worse than that caused by the return of university students, experts believe.

However, putting national restrictions in place before and after Christmas and lifting those restrictions for the big day could help minimize the impact.

Nearly 60 percent of the population – around 32.6 million – will be subject to stricter rules by Monday, and it is believed that London could move to the top tier in two weeks, provided that infection rates don't drop significantly.

16 areas, including Oxford, Luton, East Riding of Yorkshire, Kingston Upon Hull, Derbyshire Dales, Derby and Staffordshire, are classified as High Risk Level 2 at midnight.

This means that more than 21.6 million people are facing restrictions that include banning indoor contact with someone from another household, whether at home or in bars, restaurants and cafes.

Another 11 million will be at very high risk in Level 3 from midnight on Sunday, when Leeds and the rest of West Yorkshire are added to the places where pubs are closed unless food is served.

This leaves only 23.7 million without extended restrictions.

Due to the tighter restrictions in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, just over three-fifths of the UK population live under additional lockdown restrictions.