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Covid-19 Lockdown UK: "Normal" Christmas would lead to "falling spikes".


The UK coronavirus Christmas drama got in one row today after top scientists warned that relaxing measures for five days of festive celebrations would inevitably lead to more deaths – but other scholars resisted, insisting the nation must take some risk.

Boris Johnson faces growing pressure to grant his desire to ensure families can see loved ones during the holiday season. Ministers are considering allowing four different households to join forces between December 24th and 28th.

And today's numbers have fueled No10's battle to survive Christmas as both Covid-19 infections and deaths receded, raising hopes that they are finally on the downward trend due to the England lockdown. Cases were down 31.5 percent from last week, with 22,915 cases recorded today. And the deaths fell 11 percent to 501.

Professor Gabriel Scally, a public health expert at the University of Bristol, proposed the proposals today, warning that it is "pointless" to celebrate a Merry Christmas only to "bury friends and relatives in January and February". The festive season is "too dangerous a time and opportunity for the virus to spread," he added.

Professor Andrew Hayward, a member of the SAGE advisory group in Downing Street and an infectious disease expert at University College London, also warned about the proposed plans, claiming they pose a "significant" risk of the coronavirus spreading to the most vulnerable elderly after Covid -19.

An expert even warned the British that they would "regret" a five-day break that "Grandma Covid gave for Christmas". Dr. Katherine Henderson, president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, said ministers should be concerned about "overcrowded" NHS hospitals rather than talking about Christmas parties.

Health bosses have already warned that the nation may have to sacrifice 25 days of lockdown on either side of Christmas to celebrate for five days. But experts hit back on the threat today, unreservedly dismissing the five days of punishment for each day as "made up" and "non-data based".

Professor Tim Spector, an epidemiologist at King's College London who has been following the course of the UK Covid outbreak since the spring, told MailOnline: “It would be naive to believe that we can get this virus completely under control by then so we have to accept some degree of risk. & # 39;

And Professor John Edmunds, who is also a member of SAGE and an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said last night he thinks an interruption of operations "without" another 25-day lockdown could be achievable and that he does was. Sure, there would be a relaxation of measures over Christmas.

Professor Andrew Hayward, an infectious disease expert at University College London, said mixing at Christmas was a "significant" risk for the elderly

Professor Gabriel Scally (left), a public health expert at the University of Bristol, said there was no point celebrating Christmas in order to "bury" family and relatives for the next year. Professor Andrew Hayward (right), an infectious disease expert at University College London, warned against loosening the rules over Christmas, saying Christmas mixing was a "significant" risk for the elderly

SHOULD RESTRICTIONS BE RELAXED FOR CHRISTMAS ?: SCIENTIST OPINIONS

"Merry Christmas … then bury friends and relatives"

Professor Gabriel Scally from Bristol University

Professor Gabriel Scally from Bristol University

Professor Gabriel Scally, a public health expert at Bristol University, advised the UK not to lift its restrictions for five days over Christmas.

He told ITV's Good Morning Britain that there was "pointless" celebrating a Merry Christmas just to "bury friends and relatives in January and February".

"We have to think very seriously about Christmas and how we're going to spend it," he warned. "It is too dangerous a time and an opportunity for the virus to spread."

He later tweeted, "We didn't make sacrifices for nine months just to throw it all away for Christmas."

"You will regret giving it to grandma."

Dr. Katherine Henderson, President of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine

Dr. Katherine Henderson, President of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine

Dr. Katherine Henderson, president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, said restrictions should not be broken during the holiday season as families will "regret" if they "give Grandma Covid for Christmas."

She said ministers on BBC Radio 4, World at One, should instead find a "rational, controlled plan to get to the other side of it when we have a vaccine in the spring and can actually have a much more normal society".

Regarding NHS hospitals, she said officials should focus on these instead, as many emergency units are already "overcrowded".

"That's the reality of what we have in hospitals right now," she said. “Let's not let that happen and then we can talk about Christmas. But we are not in that situation right now. & # 39;

There is a "significant" risk of spreading the virus at family gatherings over Christmas

Professor Andrew Hayward, a disease expert from University College London

Professor Andrew Hayward, a disease expert from University College London

Professor Andrew Hayward, a member of the SAGE advisory group in Downing Street and an infectious disease expert at University College London, warned that mixing families for Christmas poses a "significant" risk for the virus to spread.

He told BBC Radio 4 that Today's programming ministers "place far too much emphasis" on celebrating a near-normal Christmas instead of focusing on fighting the virus.

"We know that respiratory infections peak in January, so throwing fuel on the fire over Christmas can only help," he said.

"It would be tragic to throw away this opportunity and (the) profits we made during the lockdown by trying to get back to normal over the holidays."

"Use Your Common Sense"

Professor Tim Spector from King & # 39; s College London

Professor Tim Spector from King & # 39; s College London

Professor Tim Spector, an epidemiologist from King's College London, said it "makes sense" if there were some restrictions on Christmas.

The architect of the Covid Symptom Study app, which is tracking the UK coronavirus outbreak, told MailOnline: I. I would certainly try to limit the number of people you meet for Christmas, but do so in a sensible way that anyone can find pragmatic. & # 39;

He said ministers should avoid making the rules "too strict" or people would simply "break" them. "We're already seeing some signs of this lockdown fatigue," he said.

However, the professor was cautious, saying it was "naive" to believe that the UK's outbreak would be under control by Christmas.

"I don't think we should focus on a week or a day so I think there should be some restrictions on Christmas – that would make sense," he said.

"But it would be naive to think that by then we can get this virus completely under control, so we have to take some risk."

"Tier Two Restrictions Are Sufficient"

Professor John Edmunds from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

Professor John Edmunds from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

Professor John Edmunds, an epidemiologist with the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said last night that he felt the government might be able to relax restrictions over Christmas without then imposing another lockdown.

"I still think we need to have restrictions," he told ITV's Robert Peston. "(But) I think we're being asked to work from home wherever we can and you know the restrictions in force – meetings with families, such as exactly what's in Tier 2 and above.

He added that he expected the restrictions to remain in place as "you can't meet others", with the exception of that "little window" over Christmas where "I'm sure we will relax a little".

In other coronavirus developments:

  • Conservative MPs are pressuring the government not to prolong England's lockdown, saying: “Freedom is not just for Christmas;
  • China says a Covid-19 study removed the blame for the pandemic by finding the virus was circulating in Italy last September.
  • Families of Royal Marines veterans, 89, and retired registrars, 88, killed by Covid-19, are suing the government that the speedy discharge of elderly patients from hospital caused fatal outbreaks;
  • Jaguar Land Rover orders employees to turn off the NHS Covid-19 app at work to prevent them from having to "unnecessarily" self-isolate.
  • It turns out that SAGE used data from Wikipedia to model the spring Covid-19 outbreak and didn't have a single Covid-19 expert in its ranks.
  • According to a Danish study, face masks do NOT protect the wearer from Covid-19, but rather prevent them from infecting other people.

Britons desperate to hang out with loved ones this Christmas have already pledged to oppose a possible ban on socializing during the festive period. One Twitter user said, "If the Grinch couldn't stop Christmas, what chance does Boris think he'll stand?"

The turn comes when Oxford University revealed that their Covid vaccine produces a "robust" immune system response and appears to work in the elderly, based on results from phase two studies. The NHS could start handing out a sting as early as next month after Moderna and Pfizer vaccines also declared their shots were effective in end-stage studies.

Professor Scally, a member of the rival scientific advisory group Independent SAGE, urged ministers to ponder the consequences of clearing up the restrictions on Christmas it. It is too dangerous a time and opportunity for the virus to spread. "

He later tweeted, "We didn't make sacrifices for nine months just to throw it all away for Christmas."

Professor Hayward warned ministers that they are "placing far too much emphasis" on having a near-normal Christmas instead of fighting the virus.

"We know that respiratory infections peak in January, so it can only help throwing fuel on the fire over Christmas," he told BBC Radio 4's Today program.

"It would be tragic to throw away this opportunity and (the) profits we made during the lockdown by trying to get back to normal over the holidays."

When asked if the festive freedom would amount to weeks of tighter restrictions on the British, he said, “Well, I'm not a math model builder, but that's the process that goes through.

“You look at the contact rates in society and determine how many infections would lead to it and how many fewer contacts you would have during the lockdown in order to achieve a normal Christmas party.

“I think there is a cost, but when the policy is between staying home to save lives, eating out to help the animal system, the second lockdown and now proposals for an amnesty against social distancing is there this is a highly inconsistent message.

“While the things people have to do to stay safe and protect their loved ones are relatively simple.

"Whenever possible, avoid closed indoor contact with people outside your household, avoid crowded places, and protect the most vulnerable by not putting them unnecessarily at risk."

However, he suggested a glimmer of hope for a relaxation of the rules over Christmas, saying the "economy" also needs to be considered by policymakers.

He said, “I think it's largely a very difficult balance.

“We have to be very aware of the fact that this last period of the year is absolutely critical economically for many companies. I think we have to find a way how they can work, but in a responsible way that is very socially distant. & # 39;

Dr. Henderson said ministers should come up with "a rational, controlled plan to get to the other side when we have a vaccine in the spring and can actually have a much more normal society".

She told BBC Radio 4's World at One that she was concerned that some NHS hospitals were already having "overcrowded" emergency rooms, as well as the beginnings of "corridor supply" and "problems with unloading ambulances".

"That's the reality of what we have in hospitals right now," she said. “Let's not let that happen and then we can talk about Christmas. But we are not in that situation right now. & # 39;

Professor Spector told MailOnline it "makes sense" to put some restrictions in place during the Christmas season, adding that it is "naive" to think the country's outbreak would be under control by December.

"I think we need a national debate about what restrictions we need for the next three or four months," he said.

"But I would certainly try to limit the number of people you meet at Christmas, but in a sensible way that anyone can view as pragmatic."

He warned ministers that if the rules were too strict, people would likely "just break" them, saying there were already "some signs of lockdown fatigue".

He added: I am very confident that we are not in a national lockdown by Christmas because the dates we are seeing do not support it. "

Professor Edmunds said last night he felt the government might be able to relax restrictions over Christmas without then imposing another lockdown.

“I still think we need to have restrictions,” he told ITV's Robert Peston. “(But) I think we're being asked to work from home wherever we can and you know the restrictions in force – meetings with families like, for example, exactly what's in Tier Two and above.

He added that he expected the restrictions to remain in place as "you can't meet others", with the exception of that "little window" over Christmas where "I'm sure we will relax to some extent ".

Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown admonished the Prime Minister this morning to always be behind the curve.

"I've found that as a prime minister you have to be two steps ahead of events, you can't stand behind the curve and always face the next problem," he told Sky News.

"What he has to do – Boris Johnson – is to say," Look, if there is any doubt as to whether we can lower the restrictions this Christmas we have to act now. We have to take the tough measures that are necessary now if we are to prevent people from enjoying Christmas ".

TEST & TRACE IS NOT REACHING TO REACH THE RECORDING OF COVID-19 CASES

Test and Trace failed to get a record number of positive cases in the seven-day period ended November 11

Test and Trace failed to get a record number of positive cases in the seven-day period ended November 11

NHS Test and Trace failed to hit a record number of Covid-19 cases after things finally seemed to get a little better last week.

Figures released today by the Department of Health show that 21,419 positive cases were missed in the seven-day period ended November 11, the largest number since the system was launched in the UK.

Of the 156,853 Covid-19 cases transmitted to the system, 84.9 percent – or 133,195 – were reached and asked to self-isolate. This is slightly below the previous week when 85.6 percent of all Covid-19 cases – or 121,407 – were hit.

Of close contacts who were near Covid-19 cases for more than 15 minutes before testing positive for the virus, the system hit the same proportion – 60.5 percent – as it did the previous week.

However, this meant they could not reach nearly 189,885 people who could become infected with the virus, so they could continue to circulate in the community and potentially further spread the disease. In the previous week they missed 190,835 of these people.

Test and Trace – promised by Boris Johnson it would be "world's best" – has missed its targets for weeks. It has been struggling to reach many Covid-19 patients and their contacts since infections began to rise again in late September.

“I think we've been behind the curve for too long and we tend to do things at the last minute when we should have acted earlier.

He added that Boris Johnson and his ministers should know what the UK should do "now" to prevent any further increase in restrictions or prevent them from being lowered during the holiday season.

Defense Secretary Ben Wallace argued that No10 did not want to be the "Grinch who stole Christmas" but insisted that the government also wanted to "save lives". The Prime Minister said it was his "wish" to enable relatives to enjoy the festive season together after a turbulent year. But yesterday he admitted it wouldn't be a normal Christmas.

He told ITV's Good Morning Britain: "I don't want to be the Grinch who stole Christmas – I'm not campaigning for it."

"I would love if we could all have Christmas, but most of all I want us to get through this Covid and try to get this country back to normal and I want to save lives."

But many Britons are fed up with the government's indecision and have taken to social media to express their frustration against the ministers.

One wrote: “I will have Christmas like every other year, no matter what Boris says. He has proven his incompetence, and in any case I won't hear a word he says. & # 39;

Another wrote of her plans to defy the government, writing, "If the Grinch couldn't stop Christmas, what chance does Boris think he'll stand?"

And a third added: "I'll see my family for Christmas and then ignore any blocking rules that could result from it. So I really don't care what Boris says that I'm 'allowed'."

However, others said that while it will be heartbreaking for them, the virus will prevent them from seeing family for Christmas.

One daughter wrote on Twitter: “This may be my mother's last Christmas. No matter what Boris says and no matter how it breaks my heart, I will not see her.

“I'm not going to risk what she has left of her life to see her on Christmas Day. I love her too much. & # 39;

Ms. Samuels from York told Good Morning Britain today that "a lot of people" feel they shouldn't be told what to do by politicians and official experts.

“Christmas is something that is celebrated by the old, passed out and young, and the idea that we should hide forever from our families while people go into depression, while people lose their livelihoods while people are in nursing homes Are trapped and Most students are trapped in student accommodation. I think that's inhuman to be honest, ”she said.

“We have the right to see our families, we have the right to live our lives, and I think people will, whether or not our big brother above gives us permission.

“I will praise people for having a right to celebrate Christmas. There are people who want a little joy when it's honestly a depressing time. & # 39;

She added, "We need to make sure the cure is no worse than the disease, and that is what we are facing right now."

A health chief yesterday warned England could face additional restrictions to just five days of festive freedom for 25 days, during which Brits could throw off their shackles and gather around the house for celebrations.

According to the plans that are being examined by the ministers, the churches are also expected to be allowed to hold services on Christmas Day. The Church of England says that "the message of the light that shines in the dark" is badly needed.

The proposals could result in the UK celebrating a more normal Christmas season before restrictions come back into effect

The proposals could result in the UK celebrating a more normal Christmas season before restrictions come back into effect

The number of deaths is expected to drop to 255 by the end of November, says the University of Cambridge

Daily Covid-19 deaths could be cut in half by the end of the month, according to Cambridge University modeling fed into SAGE.

The MRC Biostatistics Unit's COVID-19 working group estimates that there will be between 255 and 388 deaths per day by November 28th.

By comparison, there have been 501 deaths today, and the seven-day moving average – considered a more accurate measure as it takes into account daily fluctuations – is 407.

The latest Cambridge estimate is in stark contrast to the group's early predictions in early fall, which predicted 4,000 daily deaths through December.

This model had a heavy hand on the second ban that was imposed.

The group also estimates that there are around 50,000 new coronavirus infections in England every day.

They predict that the R will be around 1 in all regions and have seen a "significant downward trend" in the past few weeks.

Professor Daniela De Angelis, Program Leader and Deputy Director, said: “There is evidence that the pandemic is temporarily slowing: RT levels are estimated at around 1 in all regions and the total number of new infections every day is now around 50,000. a downward revision from last week's estimate.

'These trends, and the projected peak in daily deaths, are likely due to the social constraints and temporary decline in activity over the half-year period, both prior to the recent lockdown.

"Further changes in RT values ​​and the number of new infections will depend on the effects of the lockdown on human behavior. We are continuing to monitor the situation closely."

Speaking at a press conference on Downing Street Wednesday, top Public Health England doctor Susan Hopkins said she thought it was possible – although she warned that five days of tighter restrictions would be required for every day measures are relaxed to undo the damage.

But one Tory MP warned it would be better for the Prime Minister to cancel Christmas and be branded a "Grinch" instead of risking a surge in deaths from Covid-19 that could refer to him as the "Grim Reaper". They said, “He's being held responsible (an increase in deaths). It's always mid to late January when you get the NHS winter crisis. & # 39;

At a briefing on Downing Street, PHE's top paramedic Dr. Hopkins yesterday: “We are very interested in having a Christmas that is as normal as possible. This will require that we all make every effort during this national embargo and even early December to keep cases as low as possible and to reduce the risk of intra-household and inter-family transmission.

"A final decision will, of course, be made by the government, and we look forward to hearing what those plans are."

Assistant Scientific Advisor Dame Angela McLean said SAGE was also investigating the possible easing of measures over Christmas. Speaking to the conference on Wednesday, she said, “We sent some advice over the weekend. But we really don't know what decisions were made. & # 39;

The intent in number 10 is clearly to celebrate Christmas as normally as possible, with Mr Johnson's official spokesman explaining the briefing: “I think the Prime Minister has clearly expressed his desire to allow families to celebrate Christmas together. We accept that it will not be a normal Christmas, but as I said, the Prime Minister was clear in his desire for families to see each other.

"I think the point I want to make is that we are now taking the tougher measures to lower the transmission level, the number of patients being hospitalized, and ultimately those who end up in intensive care and unfortunately to die.

"We are now taking these tougher measures so that, as I said earlier, the Prime Minister has made clear his intention to allow families to spend Christmas together."

Dr. Stressing the importance of clearing infections before Christmas to ease restrictions, Hopkins said the British should be "very careful" with the number of their contacts in order to reduce transmission before the festive season to "our cases as "get low as possible".

When asked what Christmas might be like, she said of the government data, “This is a decision that is being made by the government and I know they are working hard to come up with an overview of what it will be like and how the new levels will look like after December 2nd and what Christmas will look like. & # 39;

She added, "Hopefully the government will make the decision that will allow us to mix something up, but we will wait and see what it is.

"And then I think when we have the Christmas season behind us, we all have to be very responsible and reduce these contacts again if there is a publication and a certain socialization."

A source told the Daily Telegraph yesterday that two proposals are being discussed for the festive season – extending the Six Rules over Christmas or allowing households to mingle.

Boris Johnson has come under pressure to reveal whether restrictions should be lifted for Christmas

Boris Johnson has come under pressure to reveal whether restrictions should be lifted for Christmas

The source said it was "more likely" that the government would decide to allow multiple households to come together "for fear of people being left out".

It added: “There is great hope that there can be a British approach as it recognizes that people in all four corners of Britain have families.

"It is important to give people hope even after a very difficult year for everyone."

It is likely that the total number of unconfirmed households is at least three to include both groups of grandparents.

Graphs released at the government press conference on Wednesday showed hospital admissions for Covid-19 have declined in the Northwest, Northeast and Midlands. This is another promising sign that the three-tier approach has been able to contain the spread of the virus – especially animal – Three.

COVID-19 CASE PRICES FALL IN ALL GROUPS FOR ADULTS, EXCEPT FOR OVER 70, SAYS PHE

According to Public Health England, infection rates are falling in all adult age groups except those over 70

According to Public Health England, infection rates are falling in all adult age groups except those over 70

According to Public Health England, Covid-19 case rates in England have decreased for all adult groups except those over 70.

In its most recent weekly surveillance report for the seven-day period ending Nov. 15, the agency said the highest rate remained among 20- to 29-year-olds, down from 362.1 cases per 100,000 people in the week ending Nov. 15 lay.

But they said this was a drop from 389.9 the previous week. The rates are also the same for 30 to 39 year olds (from 338.6 to 324.3), 40 to 49 year olds (316.3 to 313.7), 50 to 59 year olds (306.1 to 302 , 3) and 60 to 69 year olds. Old (217.5 to 209.6).

However, among 70 to 79 year olds, PHE officials said infection rates are still rising. This is worrying as this age group is most likely to get seriously ill and be hospitalized if they contract the virus.

It also means the lockdown can be extended beyond December 2, as ministers need to be sure there are enough beds available in the NHS before agreeing to lift the draconian measures.

According to the report, the infection rate had increased to 147.5 from 146.1 the previous week.

A similar increase was seen in people over the age of 80, where infection rates rose from 235.5 to 245.3.

The rate also rose for 10 to 19 year olds from 232.8 to 257.4.

Ihre Daten basieren auf positiven Tupfern, die in der Woche bis zum 15. November entnommen wurden, was bedeutet, dass sie die Infektionen im Land seit der Verhängung der Sperrung anzeigen.

Experten haben jedoch gesagt, dass es bis zu zwei Wochen dauern kann, bis die Auswirkungen der Sperrung auf die Infektionsraten klar werden, da es mindestens eine Woche dauert, bis Covid-19-Infektionen sichtbar werden und Tests durchgeführt werden.

OXFORD'S JAB IST 'SICHER UND PROVOKIERT EINE ROBUSTE IMMUNE ANTWORT' IN ÜBER 60 Jahren

Der Coronavirus-Impfstoff der Universität Oxford löst eine "robuste" Reaktion des Immunsystems aus und scheint bei älteren Menschen zu wirken. That was the result of a study that today marks another step towards ending the pandemic.

Scientists behind the project this morning released the results of an early attempt on the sting that found 99 percent of people showed strong signs of immunity.

Die Studie der zweiten Phase umfasste 560 Personen, von denen die meisten weiß und britisch waren, und zeigte, dass Menschen aller Altersgruppen gleich gut auf den Stoß zu reagieren schienen. It complements data released in July suggesting it would work safely for children under the age of 55. Studies in people with serious health problems and other ethnic groups are ongoing.

Es ist ein weiterer Durchbruch im Wettlauf um die Entwicklung eines Impfstoffs zur Vorbeugung von Covid-19, nachdem sich herausgestellt hat, dass die von Moderna und Pfizer und BioNTech durchgeführten Stöße in der vergangenen Woche zu rund 95 Prozent wirksam waren.

Die Ergebnisse von Oxford stammen aus einem früheren Teststadium und können daher nicht abschätzen, wie gut der Impfstoff gegen Covid schützt, sind aber dennoch ein positiver Schritt. Detailed results on how well it works are expected within weeks, the university said.

Research showed that people of all ages developed antibodies – virus-destroying substances of the immune system – within 28 days of their first vaccine dose, which were further increased after the second dose.

It was found that the vaccine caused more side effects than a false prick, but that they were "mild" and more common in young people than in older participants.

Within the first week after the injection, more than eight in ten under 55-year-olds said that their arm was injured and that they later experienced tiredness, muscle pain or headache.

Großbritannien hat 100 Millionen Dosen Oxfords Jab vorbestellt, die mit dem Pharmaunternehmen AstraZeneca hergestellt werden. So if it works and can be made fast enough it could be used to protect the majority of the UK population.

Scientists today described the news as "promising" and "positive", adding that the British order could be big enough to achieve herd immunity if the vaccine comes out well. Health Secretary Matt Hancock said in a tweet: "There is still a lot to be done, but this is a really encouraging set of findings."

(tagsToTranslate) Dailymail (t) Nachrichten (t) Coronavirus (t) SAGE (t) Boris Johnson (t) Coronavirus Lockdowns (t) Weihnachten (t) Nachrichten und Aktualisierungen der britischen Regierung zum britischen Kabinett (t) Ben Wallace (t) ) NHS