ENTERTAINMENT

Coronavirus UK: Professor Jonathan Van-Tam's numbers behind Boris Johnson's traffic light lock


England's second wave of coronavirus extends south of the hardest hit areas in the north of the country, and infections are spreading from young age groups to the older generations at risk, official data shows.

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, England's Deputy Chief Medical Officer, hosted a televised briefing today that revealed the data that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is using to impose stricter lockdown rules on millions of people today.

Mr Johnson, speaking in the House of Commons this afternoon, confirmed that the government will be using a traffic light system to categorize local barriers, where green or "medium" are national guidelines only, while red, "very high", will see socializing prohibited and all Pubs, restaurants and gyms will have to close.

Data presented by Professor Van-Tam showed that Liverpool hospitals now have the highest number of coronavirus admissions in the country and that there are now more patients in hospital in England than when the lockdown began in March.

Mr Johnson warned in Parliament that cases had "quadrupled" in the past three weeks as data shows positive testing has risen sharply since a summer hiatus, but Professor Van-Tam said comparing the outbreak with that of March and April was "apples and pears" because at that time hardly any tests were available.

Hospital admissions and deaths, the assistant chief medical officer said, are now rising due to a surge in cases that happened weeks ago. The even higher number of people diagnosed in the past week will later result in even more people going to the hospital in the coming weeks.

Here's a breakdown of what the charts in today's briefing showed, and what data is behind it:

"Second high point" of the falls since summer – but not comparable to April

The first graph presented by assistant chief physician Professor Jonathan Van-Tam was the well-known daily count of positive coronavirus tests over time.

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, England's assistant chief physician, held a televised briefing today to warn that hospital admissions and deaths from Covid-19 will increase over the next few weeks

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, England's assistant chief physician, held a televised briefing today to warn that hospital admissions and deaths from Covid-19 will increase over the next few weeks

It shows a dramatic increase in cases in September and October after a summer hiatus, showing that the virus is recovering in the UK.

Health Department test data shows that in the last week of July, when the virus appeared to have been pushed into filing over the summer, an average of 753 people were diagnosed with Covid-19 every day.

Daily cases hit a low of 352 on July 6, when there have been fewer cases than ever since the public testing system was in place.

However, by September 24, the average number of daily infections had risen to 4,964 per day, and now, in the second week of October, there have been more than 12,000 cases per day for the past nine consecutive days.

Dr. Van-Tam acknowledged, however, that the government graph is an "apple-pear comparison" and could be misleading when viewed year-round.

As a result, the spike now appears larger in cases than the one the country put on lockdown in the spring, which is inaccurate.

The first hump of cases, seen in March, April and May, came at a time when there was no public testing system for many weeks, and when one was put in place, fewer than 30,000 tests were being done a day by the end of April .

This meant that the criteria for testing had to be stricter, and the most critically ill patients had to be recorded, not people with mild illnesses.

By comparison, around 230,000 tests are currently performed every day, most of which are negative.

Dr. Van-Tam said, “If you are comparing (the first peak) to the second peak, please remember that this is an apple and pear comparison based on case numbers as our testing capacity in the spring was much lower than it is now .

"But the crucial point is that after a rather flat summer with very few Covid-positive patients in Great Britain, a clear climax can be recorded from the beginning of September."

This slide shows how the number of positive coronavirus tests in the UK has increased since a summer hiatus. The second tip doesn't compare to the first, as there are so many more tests being done now than it was then

This slide shows how the number of positive coronavirus tests in the UK has increased since a summer hiatus. The second tip doesn't compare to the first, as there are so many more tests being done now than it was then

The outbreak was concentrated in the north of England but extended south.

Dr. Van-Tam presented a series of maps showing how the second wave of the coronavirus is concentrating on the north of England.

This confirms what official data has been showing for weeks and makes it clear that the hardest-hit parts of the country are in the Manchester and Liverpool region, as well as Newcastle and Sunderland.

Dark spots on the map show a higher number of Covid-19 cases per person (purple map) and outbreaks that are increasing faster from week to week (brown map).

Dr. Van-Tam said: “There are now very dark areas in the North West of England, in the North East of England, and indeed a confluent dark purple color in the northern part of Britain that extends into the West Midlands and the East Midlands. & # 39;

He added: 'Of greater concern (stats on the brown map) is the latest data on where things are warming up …

“You can see that the range of the dark brown colors is further south on a larger landmass across England, and in fact I received these slides this morning – I showed very similar dates to MPs in the House of Lords on Friday and Friday brown map hadn't extended that far south.

"So it changed within a few days, and that is clearly a concern of mine."

Weekly data from Public Health England on Friday showed that 18 of the 19 areas with a coronavirus infection rate of more than 250 cases per 100,000 people (0.25 percent) are in the north of the country, with the exception of Nottingham.

The vast majority of areas with local lockdown rules are in the north and there are no regional restrictions further south than the Midlands.

Knowsley in Merseyside was the worst hit area on Friday October 9, with 557 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people – meaning one in 180 people is infected.

It was followed by Manchester (532 per 100,000), Liverpool (517) and Newcastle (475).

The fastest growth rate in the first week of October was recorded in Nottingham, where cases rose almost seven-fold from 62 per 100,000 to 424 in one week, making it the fifth worst hit in the country.

There have also been rapid climbs more than triple that in areas outside of the northern hotspot including Devon, Suffolk, Torbay, Brighton and Richmond upon Thames.

Mapped coronavirus infection rates show cases are concentrated in the north of England, but the outbreak is spreading south, Professor Van-Tam said. (Pictured: Areas with the darkest spots are hardest hit. The purple map on the left shows the number of coronavirus cases per 100,000. The brown map on the right shows the change in the infection rate between the last week of September and the first week of October)

The mapped coronavirus infection rates show that cases are concentrated in the north of England but the outbreak is spreading south, Professor Van-Tam said. (Pictured: Areas with the darkest spots are hardest hit. The purple map on the left shows the number of coronavirus cases per 100,000. The brown map on the right shows the change in the infection rate between the last week of September and the first week of October)

Cases highest in teenagers and 20-year-olds, but these move into older risk groups

Separate maps and thermal diagrams from Dr. Van-Tam showed how cases are increasing in the elderly in areas with severe outbreaks.

During the second wave, resurrection cases were limited to young people, with infection rates highest in people aged 20 and over, followed by teenagers.

Much of the surge in cases is due to student returns to school and university, and up to seven times as many people are infected in student areas as in other parts of the country.

At the beginning, increasing infections in young people weren't a big problem, as they were much less likely to die from Covid-19 and young school children apparently no longer had cases.

But in the worst-hit areas – as head physician Professor Chris Whitty warned at the last television review – infections have now crept into older groups.

Dr. Van-Tam said today: Our case recurrence this fall was mostly seen in adults aged 20-29, and that is absolutely true. & # 39;

The deputy chief physician showed cases with cases from people aged 60 and over and explained, “You can see that the spread from these younger age groups to the age group over 60 has occurred in the northwest and in the northeast and there are rates of change in the same place, but also extend a little further south.

"This is again of great importance … because older people with Covid-19 naturally have a much worse course. They are hospitalized for long periods of time and are more difficult to rescue. & # 39;

Last week's PHE report showed that infection rates are highest in 10–19 year olds – at 237 cases per 100,000 people – followed by 20–29 year olds (200).

They are significantly lower in the older age groups, with rates of 62 for those in their 60s, 39 per 100,000 for people in their 70s, and 53 for the 80+ group.

Among those at risk over 60, cases are increasing in areas with severe outbreaks, top medics warned, meaning hospital admissions in those areas will increase. The same trend is likely to continue across the country, they said (Image: Areas with the darkest spots are hardest hit. The purple map on the left shows the number of coronavirus cases per 100,000. The brown map on the right shows the change in infection rate between the last week of September and the first week of October)

Among those at risk over 60, cases are increasing in areas with severe outbreaks, top medics warned, meaning hospital admissions in those areas will increase. The same trend is likely to continue across the country, they said (Image: Areas with the darkest spots are hardest hit. The purple map on the left shows the number of coronavirus cases per 100,000. The brown map on the right shows the change in infection rate between the last week of September and the first week of October)

Although these age groups have lower rates, they have increased at about the same rate as younger people.

Rates may be lower because older people are more aware of the personal risks they face and are more likely to keep social distance and protect themselves at home.

In the month ending October 4, the infection rate in people in their 60s more than tripled from 21 cases per 100,000 to 62.

That 199 percent increase was close to the 221 percent increase in the 20 to 29 age group, where the infection rate rose from 62 to 199.5 over the same period.

While increasing cases in the under 30s may not directly increase the death toll, it does increase the data rate in the elderly, as data shows, which will inevitably lead to deaths.

On a series of heat charts, Dr. Van-Tam said that the cases in the northwest, although they only appeared to grow in 16-29 year olds in early September, quickly spread to older, at-risk age groups.

This heat map shows how the infection rates in different age groups have changed since the beginning of September. Age groups are listed horizontally, with the oldest for each region at the top and the dates at the bottom. The darkening of a box shows that the infections are increasing. When the dark boxes move up, it means cases are increasing in vulnerable older age groups

This heat map shows how infection rates have changed in different age groups since the beginning of September. Age groups are listed horizontally, with the oldest for each region at the top and the data running at the bottom. The darkening of a box shows that the infections are increasing. When the dark boxes move up, it means cases are increasing in vulnerable older age groups

The trend was most evident in the northwest, Professor Van-Tam pointed out, where most infections (dark orange boxes) were concentrated in younger groups (lower rows) in early September but have continued to move upwards since then, meaning older people have it are let infected

The trend was most evident in the northwest, emphasized Professor Van-Tam, where most infections (dark orange boxes) were concentrated in younger groups (lower rows) in early September but have continued to move up since then, meaning older people have it are let infected

The diagonal line broadly shows that infection rates among younger people in early September are now occurring in older groups, meaning hospital admissions and deaths are likely to increase

The diagonal line broadly shows that infection rates in younger people are now occurring in older groups in early September, which means hospital admissions and deaths are likely to increase

More patients in hospital than before the first lockdown and increasing admissions

Professor Stephen Powis, NHS England Medical Director, flanked Dr. Van-Tam to warn the public that hospital admissions are increasing.

More people are now in hospital than before the UK lockdown in the spring, says Professor Powis.

Statistics show that on March 23, the day Boris Johnson made his landmark address to the nation, there were 3,097 patients in hospitals in England with coronavirus.

That number was exceeded on Saturday when the number of people on the wards reached 3,225 and it is now at least 3,451.

However, the rate of increase in March was immense – the number of patients tripled in just one week to 10,767 on March 30th.

At the current rate of increase, it took three weeks, according to the government, for the number of patients in the hospital to triple from 1,141 on September 20.

Daily admissions are significantly lower today than they were then, but are increasing as the number of cases continues to rise in the UK.

There are currently an average of 487 admissions per day in England, compared to around 1,049 daily in the first week of lockdown and more than 2,700 at peak.

Professor Powis said, “You have been seeing this surge in infections in the community since early September … we are starting to see a surge in hospital cases.

"It is clear that hospital admissions are rising fastest in areas of the country where infection rates are highest … especially in the northwest, where hospital cases are growing the fastest and most."

The hospital admissions charts show that while cases are high in young people and low in older people, the opposite is true for hospital cases.

In the week leading up to October 4, nearly 40 over 85-year-olds were hospitalized with Covid-19 every day, compared with an average of fewer than five under 65-year-olds.

In addition to a clear age difference, there are regional differences in hospital stays that are not shown in the graphics.

Of the 3,451 hospital patients recorded yesterday, 2,132 are in the Northwest, Northeast and Yorkshire regions alone (62 percent).

In the week leading up to October 4, nearly 40 over 85-year-olds were hospitalized with Covid-19 every day, compared with an average of fewer than five under 65-year-olds

In the week leading up to October 4, nearly 40 over 85-year-olds were hospitalized with Covid-19 every day, compared with an average of fewer than five under 65-year-olds

NHS England Medical Director Professor Stephen Powis said: “It is clear that hospital admissions are rising fastest in the areas of the country where infection rates are highest ... especially the North West where you can see that hospital cases accelerate the fastest and are highest & # 39;

NHS England Medical Director Professor Stephen Powis said: “It is clear that hospital admissions are rising fastest in the areas of the country where infection rates are highest … especially the North West where you can see that hospital cases accelerate the fastest and are highest & # 39;

Hospital cases are currently concentrated in the north of England, where daily admissions are above the national average, as this graph shows. Separate government data shows that of the 3,451 hospital patients recorded yesterday, 2,132 are in the Northwest and Northeast and Yorkshire regions alone (62 percent).

Hospital cases are currently concentrated in the north of England, where daily admissions are above the national average, as this graph shows. Separate government data shows that of the 3,451 hospital patients recorded yesterday, 2,132 are in the Northwest and Northeast and Yorkshire regions alone (62 percent).

Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Trust currently has the highest number of coronavirus patients of any hospital in England, data shows

Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Trust currently has the highest number of coronavirus patients of any hospital in England, data shows

Time delays mean hospital cases and deaths now relate to a time with fewer cases. both will increase in the coming weeks

While warning of an increasing number of people being hospitalized with Covid-19, chief physicians emphasized the point that there is a delay in the records.

On average, it takes a seriously ill coronavirus patient about seven to ten days to develop coronavirus and require hospital care.

Once in the hospital, they typically spend anywhere from five to 23 days on wards until they have recovered enough to go home or die. Some patients stay longer while others recover or die faster than the average.

Around one in three people hospitalized with Covid-19 has so far died of the disease in England.

Because of the time delays, it can take a month or more for someone to discover the virus and then die. Therefore, the increasing number of cases (an average of 14,000 diagnosed per day, plus others not tested) may not lead to an apparent increase in deaths by mid-November.

"I would like to make it very clear to you that patients with Covid-19 do not go to the hospital straight away," said Professor Van-Tam.

“And they don't die in the hospital once they arrive. Unfortunately, some die – but not immediately.

"The point I want to make here is that there is a delay between cases and when hospital admissions go up and when deaths go up."

He added, "Hospital admissions we actually have now in relation to a time when there were fewer cases of Covid-19 and what I'm trying to say here is that we've already baked additional ones with the cases we know of have hospital admissions and unfortunately we also burned in additional deaths that are now due to infections that have already occurred. & # 39;

PM Takes Millions Deeper into Lockdown: Liverpool Set to 'Tier Three' Limits With Pubs, While Households in Manchester and the North East must ban indoor mixing as Boris warns the outbreak will spread if he doesn't take action seizes

Boris Johnson plunged millions of people deeper into the coronavirus lockdown today as he grimly warned his country was on the verge again.

The Prime Minister presented his new "three-tier" system to MPs, explaining that the highest restrictions would mean pubs being closed and households no longer allowed to be mixed.

However, Mr Johnson insisted he had no choice but to act and said he could not "let the virus rip apart". "Deaths are already rising," he said.

From Wednesday at 5 p.m., locals in tier 3 zones are only allowed to leave their areas for important trips such as work, education or health and have to return before the end of the day – although there are complaints, the rules are only intended as instructions rather than legally enforced .

Restaurants can only be open until 10.30 p.m. When businesses are forced to close, the government pays two-thirds of each employee's salary, up to a maximum of £ 2,100 per month. A £ 28 million package is expected to be in place to help parts of the country that are classified as Tier Three. Mr Johnson said the total assistance offered would be around £ 1 billion.

"Retail, schools and universities remain open," said the Prime Minister.

Liverpool is the area with the highest profile in the top bracket.

Yet more of the land is thrown into the tier-two bracket, meaning bars can stay open, but households cannot mix indoors.

This includes Manchester, which was saved from the tallest curbs after frantic lobbying by Mayor Andy Burnham and local MPs, as well as the North East, Birmingham and Leicester.

It is not expected that London will be in the second stage immediately. Sadiq Khan and the district leaders will hold a conference call later. A source said Tier 2 was coming soon. "We are preparing for further action in the near future," said the source.

Confusingly, some places like Oldham and Warrington are actually going to relax their restrictions as households cannot mix in gardens right now.

Mr Johnson told MPs: "The number of cases has quadrupled in the past three weeks. There are now more people in hospital with Covid than when we were banned on March 23 and the death toll is already rising. "

It comes after the top government advisers are sent out to roll the playing field by sharing their grim assessment of the situation.

Boris Johnson (pictured in the House of Commons today) is furious when he finally unveils the government's new coronavirus lockdown system for traffic lights

Deputy Head Physician Jonathan Van-Tam

Boris Johnson (pictured left in the House of Commons today) is furious when he finally unveils the government's new coronavirus lockdown system for traffic lights. Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van-Tam (right) revealed dismal numbers this morning at a press conference in No. 10

Mr Johnson said the R-value is already being suppressed to "well below" its natural level by government restrictions.

But he said it was necessary to "go further" without imposing a complete lockdown that "would destroy our lives and our society".

"Over the past few months we've worked with local executives to address local spikes with targeted restrictions. However, this local approach has inevitably resulted in different rules in different parts of the country that are now complex to understand and enforce," said Johnson.

He added: “We are now going to simplify and standardize our local rules by introducing a three-tier system of local Covid alarm levels in England, which is set to medium, high and very high.

& # 39; The medium alert will cover most of the country and will consist of the current national measures, including the rule of six and the hospitality closing at 10pm.

& # 39; The high alert level reflects the current interventions in many local areas.

“This is primarily aimed at reducing household-to-household transmission by preventing any inter-household mixing or indoor support bubbles. In these areas, the rule of six continues to apply outdoors, where it is more difficult for the virus to spread in public spaces as well as in private gardens. & # 39;

Er sagte, dass die lokalen Behörden in England rund 1 Milliarde Pfund an "neuer finanzieller Unterstützung" erhalten werden.

"Für sehr hohe Gebiete werden wir weitere finanzielle Unterstützung für lokale Tests und Rückverfolgungen sowie für die lokale Durchsetzung geben – und Unterstützung durch die Streitkräfte, nicht für die Durchsetzung, sondern zur Unterstützung lokaler Dienste, falls dies in der Region gewünscht wird", sagte er.

Der Premierminister sagte, es sei eine Einigung mit den Führern in Merseyside erzielt worden, und erklärte, dass sie ab Mittwoch in einem sehr hohen Alarmzustand sein werde – mit der Schließung von Fitnessstudios, Freizeitzentren, Wettbüros, Spielzentren für Erwachsene und Casinos.

Herr Johnson sagte: „Das Engagement mit anderen Führungskräften im Nordwesten, Nordosten, Yorkshire und Humber wird fortgesetzt.

"Ich weiß, wie schwierig das ist, sie mögen uns, wie jeder in diesem Haus mit sehr realen Dilemmata zu kämpfen hat, aber wir können den NHS nicht umfallen lassen, wenn Leben auf dem Spiel stehen."

Er forderte die lokalen Behörden auf, "mit uns an diesen schwierigen, aber notwendigen Maßnahmen in den Bereichen zu arbeiten, die als sehr hoch eingestuft werden", um mehr Unterstützung zu erhalten, und fügte hinzu: "Ich glaube, dass es unverzeihlich wäre, nicht zu handeln, und hoffe, dass rasche Fortschritte erzielt werden können." in den kommenden Tagen.'

Die Vorschriften werden am Montag im Unterhaus festgelegt und am Dienstag abgestimmt, fügte Herr Johnson hinzu, bevor er darauf bestand, dass die Maßnahmen einer „ständigen“ Überprüfung unterzogen werden.

Zuvor hatten der stellvertretende Chefarzt Jonathan Van-Tam und der medizinische Direktor des NHS, Stephen Powis, in einer Besprechung in der Downing Street mitgeteilt, dass die Anzahl der Patienten im Krankenhaus jetzt höher sei als vor der Verhängung der pauschalen Sperre im März – und möglicherweise über dem vorherigen Höchststand liegen könnte vier Wochen. Nachtigallkrankenhäuser in den am schlimmsten betroffenen Gebieten werden in hohem Maße wiedereröffnet.

Professor Van-Tam übermittelte auch die klare Botschaft, dass der Anstieg in Fällen eher ein „landesweites Phänomen“ als nur im Norden sei und sich von jüngeren Menschen auf die schutzbedürftigere alte Generation ausbreitete.

Prof. Powis sagte, die Hoffnung, dass ältere Menschen von der Zunahme der Infektionen isoliert werden könnten, erwies sich als "Wunschdenken".

Herr Johnson ist wütend, als er heute endlich die Sperrung des Coronavirus der Ampel durch die Regierung enthüllt – die Minister warnen davor, dass dies bis Weihnachten dauern könnte.

Herr Johnson hielt heute Morgen ein Cobra-Notfalltreffen ab, um den Plan nach einem Wochenende voller hektischer Gespräche mit Politikern und Wissenschaftlern abzuschließen. Er wird heute Abend auf einer Pressekonferenz Nr. 10 vor Fragen stehen.

Der Premierminister trotzt dem Zorn der lokalen Führer und Tory-Abgeordneten, das neue System voranzutreiben, während er verzweifelt darum kämpft, die wachsenden Fälle in den Griff zu bekommen.

Der Streit um die Details – über die morgen im Unterhaus abgestimmt wird – ging an den Draht, als die Politiker versuchten, mehr Geld aus der Regierung herauszuholen.

Professor Powis sagte heute Morgen zum Briefing Nr. 10: „Es ist klar, dass die Krankenhauseinweisungen in den Gebieten des Landes, in denen die Infektionsraten am höchsten sind, am schnellsten steigen, insbesondere im Nordwesten.

"In den über 65-Jährigen – insbesondere in den über 85-Jährigen – steigt die Zahl der Personen, die ins Krankenhaus eingeliefert werden, stark an. Die Behauptung, dass ältere Menschen irgendwie vom Risiko abgeschirmt werden können, ist Wunschdenken."

Prof. Van-Tam verwendete eine Reihe von Diagrammen, um seine Befürchtungen hinsichtlich der Situation des Schneeballs zu unterstreichen.

"Es hat sich innerhalb weniger Tage geändert, und das ist mir eindeutig ein Anliegen", sagte er. "Es gibt die Ausbreitung von diesen jüngeren Altersgruppen in die Altersgruppe über 60 im Nordwesten und im Nordosten, und es gibt Änderungsraten an denselben Orten, die sich aber auch etwas weiter nach Süden erstrecken."

Die Experten enthüllten, dass temporäre Nightingale-Krankenhäuser in Manchester, Sunderland und Harrogate wieder in Betrieb genommen werden könnten, um bei der Spitze in Covid-19-Fällen zu helfen.

Prof. Powis sagte, dass es auch vermehrt Tests des Gesundheitspersonals in Hotspot-Gebieten geben würde.

Er sagte: „Um unsere Mitarbeiter und unsere Patienten zu schützen, werden wir mit Tests des Test and Trace-Dienstes regelmäßige Tests für Mitarbeiter in diesen Risikobereichen einführen, auch wenn sie keine Symptome haben.

'This will help us keep staff and patients in those hospitals as safe as possible.

'Secondly, we have asked the Nightingale hospitals in Manchester, Sunderland and Harrogate to prepare for this next phase.

'They are being asked to mobilise over the next few weeks to be ready to accept patients if necessary.'

It will be for local clinicians to decide whether they are used for Covid patients or to provide extra capacity to maintain services for people without coronavirus.

Prof Van-Tam warned that extra deaths were already 'baked in' due to the rise in cases and the lag between infections and people becoming seriously ill.

'Already, with the cases that we know about, we have baked in additional hospital admissions and sadly we also have baked in additional deaths that are now consequent upon infections that have already happened,' he said.

He said the problem was 'nationwide' and not solely a problem for northern England.

Addressing a slide shown during the briefing about rates increasing in the South of England, he said: 'You have worried me now that I might have presented a bi-polar picture that Covid-19 is a problem in the North and not a problem in the South.

'On the contrary, the epidemic this time has clearly picked up pace in the North of England earlier than it did in the first wave and that almost certainly relates to the fact the disease levels in the North, and certainly in the North West, never dropped as far in the summer as they did in the South.

'But pretty much all areas of the UK are now seeing growths in the infection rate and that extending brown map that I showed you, which is sourced from the Joint Biosecurity Centre, absolutely makes that point.

'This is a nationwide phenomenon now that rates are changing upwards across the UK.'

Asked about the transmission of the disease in hospitality settings, the medic said: 'We do know the virus thrives on the thing we like most which is human contact

'We have increasingly strong evidence about shouting and singing as pressure points on the virus in terms of making the expulsion of virus-laden particles go further and the transmission therefore to become more intense.'

Despite the surge coinciding with the return of schools, Prof Van-Tam said they did not appear to be the driver of the increase.

'If you salami slice the infection data very carefully across the school age bands, what you actually see is very low rates of increase in infection up to around the age of 16 and then picking up a bit in the 17-18-year-olds as we drift into that age bracket… of really quite intense transmission,' he said.

'The evidence that there is significant transmission in schools is not really borne out by the increased infection rates and indeed we already know that children are not drivers of infection and spread in the community in the same way we know they are for influenza, for example.'

Despite claims that the Three-Tier system was part of a drive to simplify the rules across England, it seems the rules could differ slightly different between locations in even within the same risk band.

Areas such as Manchester fought desperately to be kept out of the toughest category altogether.

Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham tweeted that he was 'glad the Government has listened' and avoided putting the region under the harshest lockdown measures.

He added: 'But any restrictions will lead to loss of trade for businesses & challenges for councils. The PM must give all areas under restrictions full financial support. Anything less will see them levelled down.'

Oldham West and Royton MP Jim McMahon also hailed the news.

'Pubs serving food remain open. Oldham will be removed from its enhanced lockdown measures and brought into line with GM *at last*,' he posted.

But Labour frontbench colleague Lisa Nandy complained she had been left out of the Greater Manchester briefing with health Secretary Matt Hancock, even though her constituency is in the area. 'I suspect this is because they don't know where Wigan is,' she sniped.

There had been speculation that London would immediately enter Tier Two, which would still mean stronger limits on households socialising. However, that is not happening yet,

The measures will initially be in place for four weeks before a review, but Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden suggested this morning that they are likely to stay in place until Christmas.

One angry Tory MP for a northern seat told MailOnline: 'I won't be going round his house on December 25.'

They added: 'It will be very frustrating if pubs get closed with 48 hours' notice. Why not focus on the elderly and vulnerable and save jobs and lives?'

Another MP for an affected region complained that the government was 'running around like headless chickens'.

For Tier Two, households will not be allowed to mix indoors, similar to restrictions already in place in Middlesbrough and Hartlepool, while Tier One will be similar to the rules currently in place across England.

In a round of interviews this morning, Mr Dowden said that tough new coronavirus restrictions may be needed until after Christmas.

Mr Dowden told Sky News: 'If those measures are successful we hope to be able to take areas out of those high levels of restrictions.

'The purpose of doing this is to ensure we get the virus under control so by the time that we get through to after Christmas we are in that position where it is under control.

'Indeed I hope it will be sooner than that.'

Mr Dowden denied that the government was 'panicking' about rising cases and imposing knee-jerk curbs.

'We are certainly not panicking. We are taking reasonable and proportionate measures because we can see the risk coming down the line,' he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

'It is sadly the case that the number of deaths tends to lag the number of infections. If you look at the lead indicators – both the number of infections and now sadly the number of people that are in hospitals with Covid – all of those point to a rapidly rising disease. The path is very clear.'

Mr Dowden said the case for new restrictions on the hospitality sector was supported by the Government's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance.

'We know there are challenges around hospitality – for example, the obvious point you can't wear a mask when you are sat down and eating, that frequently you are in contact (with people) that you don't normally meet, and we know that the virus thrives on that kind of social interaction.'

Speaking after the Cobra meeting this morning, Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford voiced 'deep disappointment at the inadequate proposals for travel restrictions in high infection areas in England'.

In a statement the Welsh government said they would be met with 'great dismay in many parts of Wales where infection rates are lower'.

'He also requested greater clarity on the metrics for placing areas into each tier, and agreed with other devolved leaders that the Treasury's proposals for financial support, while welcome, did not go far enough in protecting the lowest paid workers,' a spokesman said.

Vaughan Gething, Wales' Health Minister, told a press conference: 'Myself and the First Minister are meeting again later today but we're both really disappointed that the Prime Minister is still taking an approach where there is only going to be guidance on whether people should or shouldn't travel out of highly infected areas.

'This isn't just an issue for Wales, it's an issue for the whole UK – lower prevalence areas in England will be equally affected as lower prevalence areas in Wales.

'We do understand that there has already been an importation of coronavirus cases from contact with some of those high prevalence areas in England.'

Mr Gething said the Welsh Government, which has been considering imposing quarantine restrictions on people arriving in Wales from areas of the UK with high levels of coronavirus, would meet later on Monday and 'make choices'.

Ms Sturgeon said she was putting together a Scotland version of the tiers, and would look to align as closely with the rest of the UK as possible.

'At a strategic level, we will be looking to align as closely as possible with the other UK nations – I think it is important and it makes sense to try to do that,' she said.

'Though, I would stress that operational decisions about what tiers may apply in which parts of our nations will be for each of us to take at a devolved level.'

Ms Sturgeon insisted that compliance with her 'circuit breaker' lockdown had been 'good' over the weekend.

Pubs and restaurants in the central belt of Scotland have been ordered to close, while elsewhere alcohol can only be served in outdoor areas.

Speaking at the Scottish Government's daily briefing in Edinburgh, Ms Sturgeon said: 'The early anecdotal evidence that we have from the police would suggest that compliance with the new rules and with rules generally has been good.

'That's encouraging – these new restrictions are really tough for everybody and they are tough for businesses, particularly in the hospitality sector.

'Nobody is unaware of that but they are vital for helping to stem the increase in cases, bring it back under control and of course stem the increase in hospital admissions and illness that we have been seeing.'

With the measures in place for two weeks, Ms Sturgeon said the Scottish Government is looking to ensure the long-term suppression of the virus.

The upcoming clampdown is seen as a 'gamble' to avoid having to implement a Scottish-style 'circuit-breaker' national lockdown over the October half-term.

Dr Margaret Harris, from the World Health Organisation, said the UK was now fourth in the world in terms of its rise in Covid-19 cases.

She told BBC Radio 4's World At One programme: 'You are certainly not on your own.

'We are seeing very, very large outbreaks around the world – only last week India led the number of new cases, 504,000, followed by the US with 327,000 and then Brazil.

'But the United Kingdom is number four and what we are seeing is that, in Europe particularly, in more and more countries we're seeing a bigger change in the number of cases.'

Asked how the UK compared to other European nations, Dr Harris said: 'The UK recorded 110,827 to us last week and France reported 110,065 – you're essentially on parity with France at the moment.

'Russia also recorded a large number, as did Spain but we're seeing upticks in many countries across Europe, particularly as I said in France and Spain but also we've seen changes in Italy and more of the eastern European countries.

Earlier, Steve Rotheram, mayor of the Liverpool City Region, said discussions on new measures had been going on 'all night'.

Mr Rotheram made clear getting more money was his main aim, and took a thinly-veiled swipe at Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham – usually a close ally – for 'shouting at the wind'.

'What we are trying to do is to see whether we can get support and the support package for the businesses in our city region that will be affected by the government's decision,' Mr Rotheram said.

'We were told we were going into Tier Three, no ifs, no buts. We can either expend energy on that or we can try and get a better deal.

'Some people like to shout at the wind but if they can't change the direction of the wind it is important to shield people from its effects.'

Liverpool mayor Joe Anderson tweeted to say he had been told 'no buts' over what would be imposed on his city.

'Let's be clear that having ignored my pleas for over a month, the Government now blame us, and impose 'lockdown by diktat' without a full financial package and support for businesses we are levelling down not levelling up,' he said.

'We will continue to stand up for our local businesses.'

Politicians from Manchester launched a last-ditch appeal to ministers not to shut all pubs and restaurants in the city and instead hand them the power to only close those which are not meeting coronavirus safety restrictions.

The City Council leader Sir Richard Leese said they have made the case that Greater Manchester should be placed in Tier Two rather than closing pubs and bars.

'They have not been able to show us any data that connects bars and pubs in Greater Manchester with transmission of the Covid-19 virus. They have not been able to provide any evidence that closing them down will work,' he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

'We have far more finely-grained data collected by our own directors of public health that seems to demonstrate that there is not a particular connection between bars and restaurants and the transmission of Covid.'

Shadow business minister and Manchester Central MP Lucy Powell called on the Government to publish proof that hospitality venues such as pubs were associated with high risk of coronavirus transmissions.

She tweeted: 'Government and scientists still haven't produced this evidence. The big problem for them is local leaders have all the same data (in fact better data for their areas) and they know hospitality settings make up a very small proportion of infection transmission.'

Manchester City Council leader Sir Richard Leese said local officials are still in discussions with the Government as to what restrictions should apply in the area.

He said they have made the case that Greater Manchester should be placed in Tier 2 rather than the stricter Tier 3 which could mean closing pubs and bars.

'They have not been able to show us any data that connects bars and pubs in Greater Manchester with transmission of the Covid-19 virus. They have not been able to provide any evidence that closing them down will work,' he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

'We have far more finely-grained data collected by our own directors of public health that seems to demonstrate that there is not a particular connection between bars and restaurants and the transmission of Covid.'

Liverpool recorded the second-highest infection rate in England in the 14 days before October 4, with 4,593 confirmed cases (928.2 per 100,000 people). The neighbouring borough of Knowsley had the worst rate, with 1,412 cases and an infection rate of 944.

Government Sources told MailOnline that Liverpool is 'basically there' to be included in Tier Three.

A Downing Street spokesman said: 'Our primary focus has always been to protect lives and livelihoods while controlling the spread of the virus and these measures will help achieve that aim.

“We must do everything we can to protect the NHS and to ensure that it can continue to provide the essential services that so many people rely on.

"This is a critical point and it is absolutely essential that everyone follows the clear guidelines we have put in place to contain the virus."

Manchester is also understood to be on the verge of Tier Three, with five of the city's MPs warning Mr Johnson of the 'devastating impact' of closing businesses.

Not only would 'jobs, livelihoods and businesses,' be put on the line, but more illegal gatherings would result, they said.

The letter was sent by Labour's Lucy Powell, Jeff Smith, Mike Kane, Afzal Khan and Graham Stringer.

Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham has also blasted a lack of communication from the Government, while the leader of Bolton Council David Greenhalgh warned the squeeze would destroy the economy of the north of England.

Meanwhile, night-time economy adviser for Greater Manchester Sacha Lord has started legal proceedings to challenge the Government's impending lockdown of hospitality and entertainment venues.

Mr Lord said leaders had not seen 'any tangible scientific evidence to merit a full closure' of hospitality in the area and said lawyers had been engaged for a Judicial Review into the emergency restrictions due to be imposed on the sectors.

Labour leader Keir Starmer seized on the wrangling to claim the government was treating parts of the country with 'contempt'.

'The government has been treating local communities, particularly in the Midlands, North West and North East – and their leaders – with contempt, that Whitehall knows best and we will simply tell you what's coming your way. It's just not good enough, you have to take people with you on this, listen to what local leaders are saying,' he told LBC during a phone-in.

MEPs are asked to debate and vote on the measures later this week.

The Prime Minister will hold a press conference in Downing Street with Chancellor Rishi Sunak and chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty later on Monday.

A Downing Street spokesman said: "Our main focus has always been to protect lives and livelihoods while controlling the spread of the virus. These measures will help to achieve this goal.

“We must do everything we can to protect the NHS and to ensure that it can continue to provide the essential services that so many people rely on.

"This is a critical point and it is absolutely essential that everyone follows the clear guidelines we have put in place to contain the virus."

Number 10 stressed the extent of discussions with local leaders over the weekend following criticism from some Northern authorities and mayors that not enough consultation had taken place since the Covid crisis began.

Downing Street said senior Number 10 advisers and Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick held discussions local authority chiefs and mayors from 'the highest areas of concern'.

The local authorities have also expressed concern about the impact of harsher restrictions on their own finances, with the statement saying they are existing 'hand to mouth'.

It said: '(We) are currently unable to plan for the medium or long-term.

'A clearer funding settlement must be achieved that enables us to forward plan, continue to deliver essential public services, avoid large scale redundancies for Local Authority key workers and set a budget for next year with confidence.

'Therefore, we are seeking assurance from Treasury that, in coming to that national position, no local authorities placed on Tier 3 measures will be put in a position where they are unable to balance their budget this year or cannot set a legal budget next year.

'In this respect we have agreed that a further discussion with Treasury will take place on this matter.'

The UK recorded another 12,872 coronavirus cases yesterday, marking a nine per cent increase on last Sunday's adjusted total which followed the Government's extraordinary figures blunder.

The figures mark a 2,294-case drop from Saturday's daily total of 15,166. Saturday's death toll was 81 – 16 more deaths than the 65 recorded today.

Over the weekend Professor Van-Tam said 'the seasons are against us' and the country is running into a 'headwind' ahead of the winter months.

In a statement, Prof. Van-Tam said that while the epidemic had "started again" in younger people in recent weeks, there was "clear evidence of a gradual spread to older age groups" in the hardest hit areas.

But he also said the UK has "much improved testing facilities" and "better treatments" which means "we know where it is and how to approach it".

Stressing the importance of following public health guidelines and minimizing contact with others, he added, "I know this is very difficult, but it is an unfortunate scientific fact that the virus is infected by humans lives who make social contact with each other. "

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