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Coronavirus UK: Professor Jonathan Van-Tam's numbers behind Boris Johnson's traffic light lock


England's second wave of coronavirus extends south of the hardest hit areas in the north of the country, and infections are spreading from young age groups to the older generations at risk, official data shows.

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, England's Deputy Chief Medical Officer, hosted a televised briefing today that revealed the data that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is using to impose stricter lockdown rules on millions of people today.

Mr Johnson, speaking in the House of Commons this afternoon, confirmed that the government will be using a traffic light system to categorize local barriers, where green or "medium" are national guidelines only, while red, "very high", will see socializing prohibited and all Pubs, restaurants and gyms will have to close.

Data presented by Professor Van-Tam showed that Liverpool hospitals now have the highest number of coronavirus admissions in the country and that there are now more patients in hospital in England than when the lockdown began in March.

Mr Johnson warned in Parliament that cases had "quadrupled" in the past three weeks as data shows positive testing has risen sharply since a summer hiatus, but Professor Van-Tam said comparing the outbreak with that of March and April was "apples and pears" because at that time hardly any tests were available.

Hospital admissions and deaths, the assistant chief medical officer said, are now rising due to a surge in cases that happened weeks ago. The even higher number of people diagnosed in the past week will later result in even more people going to the hospital in the coming weeks.

Here's a breakdown of what the charts in today's briefing showed, and what data is behind it:

"Second high point" of the falls since summer – but not comparable to April

The first graph presented by assistant chief physician Professor Jonathan Van-Tam was the well-known daily count of positive coronavirus tests over time.

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, England's assistant chief physician, held a televised briefing today to warn that hospital admissions and deaths from Covid-19 will increase over the next few weeks

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, England's assistant chief physician, held a televised briefing today to warn that hospital admissions and deaths from Covid-19 will increase over the next few weeks

It shows a dramatic increase in cases in September and October after a summer hiatus, showing that the virus is recovering in the UK.

Health Department test data shows that in the last week of July, when the virus appeared to have been pushed into filing over the summer, an average of 753 people were diagnosed with Covid-19 every day.

Daily cases hit a low of 352 on July 6, when there have been fewer cases than ever since the public testing system was in place.

However, by September 24, the average number of daily infections had risen to 4,964 per day, and now, in the second week of October, there have been more than 12,000 cases per day for the past nine consecutive days.

Dr. Van-Tam acknowledged, however, that the government graph is an "apple-pear comparison" and could be misleading when viewed year-round.

As a result, the spike now appears larger in cases than the one the country put on lockdown in the spring, which is inaccurate. Top experts believe that at least 100,000 Britons contracted the virus every day during the peak of the first wave.

The first hump of cases, seen in March, April and May, came at a time when there was no public testing system for many weeks, and when one was put in place, fewer than 30,000 tests were being done a day by the end of April .

This meant that the criteria for testing had to be stricter, and the most critically ill patients had to be recorded, not people with mild illnesses.

By comparison, around 230,000 tests are currently performed every day, most of which are negative.

Professor Van-Tam said, “If you are comparing (the first peak) to the second peak, please remember that this is an apple and pear comparison based on case numbers as our spring testing capacity was much less than that now.

"But the crucial point is that after a rather flat summer with very few Covid-positive patients in Great Britain, a clear climax can be recorded from the beginning of September."

This slide shows how the number of positive coronavirus tests in the UK has increased since a summer hiatus. The second tip doesn't compare to the first, as there are so many more tests being done now than it was then

This slide shows how the number of positive coronavirus tests in the UK has increased since a summer hiatus. The second tip doesn't compare to the first, as there are so many more tests being done now than it was then

NORTH WORST HIT BECAUSE "NEVER FALL AS LOW AS THEY DID IN THE SOUTH"

The north of England is bearing the brunt of Britain's second wave of coronavirus for failing to suppress its first outbreak, the deputy chief medical officer admitted.

Official data shows that two-thirds of Covid-19 hospital stays in the UK take place in Yorkshire, Northeast and Northwest, where swaths are expected to face stricter Covid-19 rules under Boris Johnson's new three-tier lockdown system.

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam warned today that the virus "increased significantly earlier than in the first wave" in the north.

He said this was "almost certain" as virus levels in these parts "have never dropped as much as in the summer as in the south".

For example, figures show that on July 4th “Super Saturday” – when pubs, restaurants, and hairdressers were allowed to reopen after months of lockdown – the infection rate in the northwest was 72 per 100,000 people, compared to 29 in the southeast.

Numbers in the northwest continued to decline, falling to 54 on July 12, before drifting up from late July, but the numbers still did not fall to the south-east low of 21 on August 2.

Professor Van-Tam's admission that the epidemic in the north has never been fully suppressed raises questions about whether ministers were too keen on loose lockdown measures.

Experts have attributed the rapidly growing coronavirus cases and hospital admissions in the north of England to a number of factors unique to the region that have made the virus vulnerable to a surge.

The outbreak was concentrated in the north of England but extended south.

Professor Van-Tam presented a series of maps showing how the second wave of the coronavirus is concentrating on the north of England.

This confirms what official data has been showing for weeks and makes it clear that the hardest-hit parts of the country are in the Manchester and Liverpool region, as well as Newcastle and Sunderland.

Dark spots on the map show a higher number of Covid-19 cases per person (purple map) and outbreaks that are increasing faster from week to week (brown map).

Professor Van-Tam said: “There are now very dark areas in the north-west of England, in the north-east of England, and indeed a confluent dark purple color in the north of Britain, extending into the West Midlands and the East Midlands. & # 39;

He added: 'Of greater concern (stats on the brown map) is the latest data on where things are warming up …

“You can see that the range of the dark brown colors is further south on a larger landmass across England, and in fact I received these slides this morning – I showed very similar dates to MPs in the House of Lords on Friday and Friday brown map hadn't extended that far south.

"So it changed within a few days, and that is clearly a concern of mine."

Weekly data from Public Health England on Friday showed that 18 of the 19 areas with a coronavirus infection rate of more than 250 cases per 100,000 people (0.25 percent) are in the north of the country, with the exception of Nottingham.

The vast majority of areas with local lockdown rules are in the north and there are no regional restrictions further south than the Midlands.

Knowsley in Merseyside was the worst hit area on Friday October 9, with 557 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people – meaning one in 180 people is infected.

It was followed by Manchester (532 per 100,000), Liverpool (517) and Newcastle (475).

The fastest growth rate in the first week of October was recorded in Nottingham, where cases rose almost seven-fold from 62 per 100,000 to 424 in one week, making it the fifth worst hit in the country.

There have also been rapid climbs more than triple that in areas outside of the northern hotspot including Devon, Suffolk, Torbay, Brighton and Richmond upon Thames.

Mapped coronavirus infection rates show cases are concentrated in the north of England, but the outbreak is spreading south, Professor Van-Tam said. (Pictured: Areas with the darkest spots are hardest hit. The purple map on the left shows the number of coronavirus cases per 100,000. The brown map on the right shows the change in the infection rate between the last week of September and the first week of October)

Mapped coronavirus infection rates show cases are concentrated in the north of England, but the outbreak is spreading south, Professor Van-Tam said. (Pictured: Areas with the darkest spots are hardest hit. The purple map on the left shows the number of coronavirus cases per 100,000. The brown map on the right shows the change in the infection rate between the last week of September and the first week of October)

Cases highest in teenagers and 20-year-olds, but these move into older risk groups

Separate maps and thermal diagrams from Dr. Van-Tam showed how cases are increasing in the elderly in areas with severe outbreaks.

During the second wave, resurrection cases were limited to young people, with infection rates highest in people aged 20 and over, followed by teenagers.

Much of the surge in cases is due to student returns to school and university, and up to seven times as many people are infected in student areas as in other parts of the country.

At the beginning, increasing infections in young people weren't a big problem, as they were much less likely to die from Covid-19 and young school children apparently no longer had cases.

But in the worst-hit areas – as head physician Professor Chris Whitty warned at the last television review – infections have now crept into older groups.

Dr. Van-Tam said today: Our case recurrence this fall was mostly seen in adults aged 20-29, and that is absolutely true. & # 39;

The deputy chief physician showed cases with cases from people aged 60 and over and explained, “You can see that the spread from these younger age groups to the age group over 60 has occurred in the northwest and in the northeast and there are rates of change in the same place, but also extend a little further south.

"This is again of great importance … because older people with Covid-19 naturally have a much worse course. They are hospitalized for long periods of time and are more difficult to rescue. & # 39;

Last week's PHE report showed that infection rates are highest in 10–19 year olds – at 237 cases per 100,000 people – followed by 20–29 year olds (200).

They are significantly lower in the older age groups, with rates of 62 for those in their 60s, 39 per 100,000 for people in their 70s, and 53 for the 80+ group.

Among those at risk over 60, cases are increasing in areas with severe outbreaks, top medics warned, meaning hospital admissions in those areas will increase. The same trend is likely to continue across the country, they said (Image: Areas with the darkest spots are hardest hit. The purple map on the left shows the number of coronavirus cases per 100,000. The brown map on the right shows the change in infection rate between the last week of September and the first week of October)

Among those at risk over 60, cases are increasing in areas with severe outbreaks, top medics warned, meaning hospital admissions in those areas will increase. The same trend is likely to continue across the country, they said (Image: Areas with the darkest spots are hardest hit. The purple map on the left shows the number of coronavirus cases per 100,000. The brown map on the right shows the change in infection rate between the last week of September and the first week of October)

Although these age groups have lower rates, they have increased at about the same rate as younger people.

Rates may be lower because older people are more aware of the personal risks they face and are more likely to keep social distance and protect themselves at home.

In the month ending October 4, the infection rate in people in their 60s more than tripled from 21 cases per 100,000 to 62.

That 199 percent increase was close to the 221 percent increase in the 20 to 29 age group, where the infection rate rose from 62 to 199.5 over the same period.

While increasing cases in the under 30s may not directly increase the death toll, it does increase the data rate in the elderly, as data shows, which will inevitably lead to deaths.

On a series of heat charts, Dr. Van-Tam said that the cases in the northwest, although they only appeared to grow in 16-29 year olds in early September, quickly spread to older, at-risk age groups.

This heat map shows how infection rates have changed in different age groups since the beginning of September. Age groups are listed horizontally, with the oldest for each region at the top and the data running at the bottom. The darkening of a box shows that the infections are increasing. When the dark boxes move up, it means cases are increasing in vulnerable older age groups

This heat map shows how infection rates have changed in different age groups since the beginning of September. Age groups are listed horizontally, with the oldest for each region at the top and the data running at the bottom. The darkening of a box shows that the infections are increasing. When the dark boxes move up, it means cases are increasing in vulnerable older age groups

The trend was most evident in the northwest, emphasized Professor Van-Tam, where most infections (dark orange boxes) were concentrated in younger groups (lower rows) in early September but have continued to move up since then, meaning older people have it are let infected

The trend was most evident in the northwest, emphasized Professor Van-Tam, where most infections (dark orange boxes) were concentrated in younger groups (lower rows) in early September but have continued to move up since then, meaning older people have it are let infected

The diagonal line broadly shows that infection rates in younger people are now occurring in older groups in early September, which means hospital admissions and deaths are likely to increase

The diagonal line broadly shows that infection rates in younger people are now occurring in older groups in early September, which means hospital admissions and deaths are likely to increase

More patients in hospital than before the first lockdown and increasing admissions

Professor Stephen Powis, NHS England Medical Director, flanked Dr. Van-Tam to warn the public that hospital admissions are increasing.

More people are now in hospital than before the UK lockdown in the spring, says Professor Powis.

Statistics show that on March 23, the day Boris Johnson made his landmark address to the nation, there were 3,097 patients in hospitals in England with coronavirus.

That number was exceeded on Saturday when the number of people on the wards reached 3,225 and it is now at least 3,451.

However, the rate of increase in March was immense – the number of patients tripled in just one week to 10,767 on March 30th.

At the current rate of increase, it took three weeks, according to the government, for the number of patients in the hospital to triple from 1,141 on September 20.

Daily admissions are significantly lower today than they were then, but are increasing as the number of cases continues to rise in the UK.

There are currently an average of 487 admissions per day in England, compared to around 1,049 daily in the first week of lockdown and more than 2,700 at peak.

Professor Powis said, “You have been seeing this surge in infections in the community since early September … we are starting to see a surge in hospital cases.

"It is clear that hospital admissions are rising fastest in areas of the country where infection rates are highest … especially in the northwest, where hospital cases are growing the fastest and most."

The hospital admissions charts show that while cases are high in young people and low in older people, the opposite is true for hospital cases.

In the week leading up to October 4, nearly 40 over 85-year-olds were hospitalized with Covid-19 every day, compared with an average of fewer than five under 65-year-olds.

In addition to a clear age difference, there are regional differences in hospital stays that are not shown in the graphics.

Of the 3,451 hospital patients recorded yesterday, 2,132 are in the Northwest, Northeast and Yorkshire regions alone (62 percent).

In the week leading up to October 4, nearly 40 over 85-year-olds were hospitalized with Covid-19 every day, compared with an average of fewer than five under 65-year-olds

In the week leading up to October 4, nearly 40 over 85-year-olds were hospitalized with Covid-19 every day, compared with an average of fewer than five under 65-year-olds

NHS England Medical Director Professor Stephen Powis said: “It is clear that hospital admissions are rising fastest in the areas of the country where infection rates are highest ... especially the North West where you can see that hospital cases accelerate the fastest and are highest & # 39;

NHS England Medical Director Professor Stephen Powis said: “It is clear that hospital admissions are rising fastest in the areas of the country where infection rates are highest … especially the North West where you can see that hospital cases accelerate the fastest and are highest & # 39;

Hospital cases are currently concentrated in the north of England, where daily admissions are above the national average, as this graph shows. Separate government data shows that of the 3,451 hospital patients recorded yesterday, 2,132 are in the Northwest and Northeast and Yorkshire regions alone (62 percent).

Hospital cases are currently concentrated in the north of England, where daily admissions are above the national average, as this graph shows. Separate government data shows that of the 3,451 hospital patients recorded yesterday, 2,132 are in the Northwest and Northeast and Yorkshire regions alone (62 percent).

Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Trust currently has the highest number of coronavirus patients of any hospital in England, data shows

Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Trust currently has the highest number of coronavirus patients of any hospital in England, data shows

Time delays mean hospital cases and deaths now relate to a time with fewer cases. both will increase in the coming weeks

While warning of an increasing number of people being hospitalized with Covid-19, chief physicians emphasized the point that there is a delay in the records.

On average, it takes a seriously ill coronavirus patient about seven to ten days to develop coronavirus and require hospital care.

Once in the hospital, they typically spend anywhere from five to 23 days on wards until they have recovered enough to go home or die. Some patients stay longer while others recover or die faster than the average.

Around one in three people hospitalized with Covid-19 has so far died of the disease in England.

Because of the time delays, it can take a month or more for someone to discover the virus and then die. Therefore, the increasing number of cases (an average of 14,000 diagnosed per day, plus others not tested) may not lead to an apparent increase in deaths by mid-November.

"I would like to make it very clear to you that patients with Covid-19 do not go to the hospital straight away," said Professor Van-Tam.

“And they don't die in the hospital once they arrive. Unfortunately, some die – but not immediately.

"The point I want to make here is that there is a delay between cases and when hospital admissions go up and when deaths go up."

He added, "Hospital admissions we actually have now in relation to a time when there were fewer cases of Covid-19 and what I'm trying to say here is that we've already baked additional ones with the cases we know of have hospital admissions and unfortunately we also burned in additional deaths that are now due to infections that have already occurred. & # 39;

PM Takes Millions Deeper into Lockdown: Liverpool Set to 'Tier Three' Limits With Pubs, While Households in Manchester and the North East must ban indoor mixing as Boris warns the outbreak will spread if he doesn't take action seizes

Boris Johnson plunged millions of people deeper into the coronavirus lockdown today as he grimly warned his country was on the verge again.

The Prime Minister presented his new "three-tier" system to MPs, explaining that the highest restrictions would mean pubs being closed and households no longer allowed to be mixed.

However, Mr Johnson insisted he had no choice but to act and said he could not "let the virus rip apart". "Deaths are already rising," he said.

From Wednesday at 5 p.m., locals in tier 3 zones are only allowed to leave their areas for important trips such as work, education or health and have to return before the end of the day – although there are complaints, the rules are only intended as instructions rather than legally enforced .

Restaurants can only be open until 10.30 p.m. When businesses are forced to close, the government pays two-thirds of each employee's salary, up to a maximum of £ 2,100 per month. A £ 28 million package is expected to be in place to help parts of the country that are classified as Tier Three. Mr Johnson said the total assistance offered would be around £ 1 billion.

"Retail, schools and universities remain open," said the Prime Minister.

Liverpool is the area with the highest profile in the top bracket.

Yet more of the land is thrown into the tier-two bracket, meaning bars can stay open, but households cannot mix indoors.

This includes Manchester, which was saved from the tallest curbs after frantic lobbying by Mayor Andy Burnham and local MPs, as well as the North East, Birmingham and Leicester.

It is not expected that London will be in the second stage immediately. Sadiq Khan and the district leaders will hold a conference call later. A source said Tier 2 was coming soon. "We are preparing for further action in the near future," said the source.

Confusingly, some places like Oldham and Warrington are actually going to relax their restrictions as households cannot mix in gardens right now.

Mr Johnson told MPs: "The number of cases has quadrupled in the past three weeks. There are now more people in hospital with Covid than when we were banned on March 23 and the death toll is already rising. "

It comes after the top government advisers are sent out to roll the playing field by sharing their grim assessment of the situation.

Boris Johnson (pictured in the House of Commons today) is furious when he finally introduces the government's new coronavirus lockdown system for traffic lights

Deputy Head Physician Jonathan Van-Tam

Boris Johnson (pictured left in the House of Commons today) is furious when he finally unveils the government's new coronavirus lockdown system for traffic lights. Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van-Tam (right) revealed dismal numbers this morning at a press conference in No. 10

Mr Johnson said the R-value is already being suppressed to "well below" its natural level by government restrictions.

But he said it was necessary to "go further" without imposing a complete lockdown that "would destroy our lives and our society".

"Over the past few months we've worked with local executives to address local spikes with targeted restrictions. However, this local approach has inevitably resulted in different rules in different parts of the country that are now complex to understand and enforce," said Johnson.

Pubs threaten the SAE ministers over curbs

The UK hotel industry is challenging the government lockdown restrictions to halt their plans to close pubs and other venues to combat the surge in coronavirus cases.

The Night Time Industries Association (NTIA) announced late Sunday that the industry has taken legal action to prevent lockdown measures from being imposed.

The judicial review will argue that there is no evidence to suggest that eateries contributed to the spread of COVID-19.

"The industry has no choice but to legally challenge the government's so-called 'common sense' narrative to implement further restrictions in the north of England," said Michael Kill, CEO of NTIA, in an email.

"These new measures will have catastrophic effects on night sales and will be compounded by an inadequate financial support package," the statement said.

He added: “We are now going to simplify and standardize our local rules by introducing a three-tier system of local Covid alarm levels in England, which is set to medium, high and very high.

& # 39; The medium alert will cover most of the country and will consist of the current national measures, including the rule of six and the hospitality closing at 10pm.

& # 39; The high alert level reflects the current interventions in many local areas.

“This is primarily aimed at reducing household-to-household transmission by preventing any inter-household mixing or indoor support bubbles. In these areas, the rule of six continues to apply outdoors, where it is more difficult for the virus to spread in public spaces as well as in private gardens. & # 39;

He said local authorities in England will receive around £ 1 billion in "new financial aid".

"For very high areas, we will continue to provide financial support for local testing and tracing, as well as local enforcement – and support from the armed forces, not for enforcement, but to support local services if the region so desires," he said .

The prime minister said an agreement had been reached with leaders in Merseyside and said that she would be on a very high level of alert from Wednesday – with the closure of gyms, leisure centers, betting shops, adult game centers and casinos.

Mr Johnson said: “Engagement with other executives in the North West, North East, Yorkshire and Humber continues.

"I know how difficult it is, they like us, like everyone in this house struggling with very real dilemmas, but we can't let the NHS fall over when lives are at stake."

He urged local authorities to "work with us on these difficult but necessary actions in the areas that are considered very high" in order to get more support, adding: "I believe it would be unforgivable not to act and hope that rapid progress can be made. " in the coming days. & # 39;

The rules will be set in the House of Commons on Monday and voted on Tuesday, Mr Johnson added, before insisting that the measures be subject to "ongoing" review.

Earlier, in a meeting on Downing Street, Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van-Tam and NHS Medical Director Stephen Powis had announced that the number of patients in the hospital was now higher than it was before the flat-rate ban was imposed in March – and possibly could be four weeks above the previous high. Nightingale hospitals in the worst hit areas are reopening on a large scale.

Medics alerted the south to curbs because the COVID surge is NOT limited to the north

Government advisors today alerted the south of new lockdown restrictions and warned that the problems were not limited to the north.

Prof. Jonathan Van-Tam said the increase in the north so far was partly due to the fact that cases there were not so low in the summer.

He insisted the surge was a "nationwide phenomenon" and said additional deaths had already been "burned in" due to the delay between infection and serious illness.

"We have already made additional hospital admissions with the cases we are aware of, and unfortunately we have also burned in additional deaths that are now due to infections that have already occurred," he said.

He said the problem was "nationwide" and not just a problem for northern England.

On a slide shown earlier in the discussion about rising rates in the south of England, he said: “You have now worried me that I may have presented a bipolar picture that Covid-19 is a problem in the north and not a problem in the south.

“On the contrary, this time the epidemic increased significantly earlier in the north of England than in the first wave, and this is almost certainly due to the fact that the disease level never increases in the north and certainly in the north-west.

“But pretty much every area in the UK is now seeing an increase in the rate of infection, and this expanded brown map that I showed you, from the Joint Biosecurity Center, makes it very clear.

"This is a nationwide phenomenon as interest rates move upwards across the UK."

Professor Van-Tam also sent the clear message that the surge in cases was more of a "nationwide phenomenon" than just in the north, spreading from younger people to the more vulnerable older generation.

Prof. Powis said the hope that the elderly could be isolated from the rise in infections turned out to be "wishful thinking".

Mr Johnson is furious today when he finally reveals the government's blocking of the coronavirus on traffic lights – ministers warn it could last until Christmas.

Mr Johnson held an emergency Cobra meeting this morning to finalize the plan after a weekend of hectic discussions with politicians and scientists. He will face questions at a press conference # 10 tonight.

The prime minister defies the wrath of local leaders and Tory MPs for pushing the new system forward as he struggles desperately to deal with the growing cases.

The row over the details – which will be voted on in the House of Commons tomorrow – went on the wire as politicians tried to get more money out of the government.

Commenting on Briefing # 10 this morning, Professor Powis said: “It is clear that hospital admissions are rising fastest in the areas of the country where infection rates are highest, especially in the northwest.

"In those over 65 – especially those over 85 – the number of people being hospitalized is increasing sharply. The claim that older people can somehow be shielded from risk is wishful thinking."

Prof. Van-Tam used a series of diagrams to emphasize his concerns about the snowball situation.

"It changed in a matter of days and that is clearly a concern of mine," he said. "There is the spread from these younger age groups to the over 60 age group in the northwest and northeast, and there are rates of change in the same places but also extending a little further south."

The experts revealed that temporary Nightingale hospitals in Manchester, Sunderland and Harrogate could be reopened to help with the spike in Covid-19 cases.

Prof. Powis said there would also be more tests of health workers in hotspot areas.

He said: “To protect our employees and our patients, we will use tests from the Test and Trace service to introduce regular tests for employees in these risk areas, even if they have no symptoms.

“This will help us keep staff and patients as safe as possible in these hospitals.

Second, we asked the Nightingale hospitals in Manchester, Sunderland and Harrogate to prepare for this next phase.

"You are asked to mobilize in the next few weeks to be able to admit patients if necessary."

It will be up to the local doctors to decide whether to use it for Covid patients or to provide additional capacity to maintain services for people without coronavirus.

Prof. Van-Tam warned that due to the increase in cases and the delay between infection and serious illness, additional deaths have already been “burned in”.

Doctors are better placed to save lives this time

Doctors are now in a "better position" to treat Covid-19 than they were in March and April, says a senior NHS official

British doctors are able to treat Covid-19 better than they were in March and April, according to one of the top NHS officials.

Professor Stephen Powis, the medical director of NHS England, told the television briefing on Downing Street that the nation "clearly has learned many things from that first wave".

He said, "We have learned better treatments for patients and dexamethasone … we have learned that it reduces the number of deaths."

Dexamethasone was added to doctors' arsenal for the treatment of coronavirus in June after Oxford University researchers demonstrated it can help critically ill patients.

The cheap and widely available steroid, believed to cost £ 5 per patient, saves lives by calming the immune system.

Medical advice says that it should only be given in "severe and critical" cases, as milder infections could make the disease worse by impairing the body's ability to fight it off.

Professor Powis's claims come after separate data showed today that the coronavirus's chances of surviving from a serious illness have increased significantly since the pandemic began.

The proportion of patients who die in intensive care units in hospitals has fallen from around 30 percent to less than 20 percent since April.

Even more noticeable is the decline in the death rate in relation to all hospitalized patients – from 6 percent at its peak to around 2 percent.

"We have already made additional hospital admissions with the cases we are aware of, and unfortunately we have also burned in additional deaths that are now due to infections that have already occurred," he said.

He said the problem was "nationwide" and not just a problem for northern England.

On a slide shown during the briefing about rising rates in the south of England, he said: “You have now worried me that I may have presented a bipolar picture, that Covid-19 is a problem in the north and not a problem in the north is the south.

“On the contrary, this time the epidemic increased significantly earlier in the north of England than in the first wave, and this is almost certainly due to the fact that the disease level never increases in the north and certainly in the north-west.

“But pretty much every area in the UK is now seeing an increase in the rate of infection, and this expanded brown map that I showed you, from the Joint Biosecurity Center, makes it very clear.

"This is a nationwide phenomenon as interest rates move upwards across the UK."

When asked about the transmission of the disease in the hospitality industry, the doctor said, “We know that the virus lives on what we like best, namely human contact

"We have increasingly strong evidence of shouting and singing as pressure points on the virus to further expel virus-laden particles and therefore make transmission more intense."

Despite the spike that coincided with the return of schools, Prof. Van-Tam said they didn't seem to be the driver of the spike.

“If you carefully break up salami infection data across school age groups, you actually see a very small increase in infection rates up to around the age of 16, and a slight increase in 17-18 year olds as we dive into that age group … Of really quite intense transmission, ”he said.

“The evidence that there is significant transmission in schools is not really confirmed by the increased infection rates, and we already know that children are not drivers of infection and that they spread to the community just as we know they are against, for example Are influenza. & # 39;

Despite claims that the three tier system was part of an effort to simplify the rules across England, the rules seem to differ slightly between locations even within the same risk band.

Areas like Manchester were fighting desperately to be kept out of the toughest category.

Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham tweeted that he was "glad the government listened" and that he had avoided subjecting the region to the harshest lockdown measures.

He added, “But any restrictions will result in trade losses for businesses and challenges for councils. The Prime Minister must give full financial support to all areas with restrictions. Everything else will level them out. & # 39;

Sturgeon applauds the "good" compliance with their "breaker" lockout

Nicola Sturgeon insisted that compliance with her circuit breaker ban was "good" over the weekend.

Pubs and restaurants in the central belt of Scotland have been closed, while elsewhere alcohol is only served outside.

Speaking at the Scottish Government's daily meeting in Edinburgh, Ms. Sturgeon said: “The early anecdotal evidence we received from the police suggests that compliance with the new rules and the rules in general has been good.

“ That's encouraging – these new restrictions are really tough on everyone, and they're tough on businesses, especially in the hospitality industry.

"Nobody is unaware of this, but they are vital to curb the increase in cases, bring them back under control and of course contain the increase in hospital admissions and diseases that we have seen."

Ms Sturgeon said the Scottish government wants to ensure long-term suppression of the virus after two weeks of measures.

Oldham West and Royton MP Jim McMahon also welcomed the news.

& # 39; Pubs serving food stay open. Oldham will be removed from its extended lockdown measures and * finally * brought into line with GM, ”he wrote.

Labor Frontbench colleague Lisa Nandy complained about being banned from meeting with Health Secretary Matt Hancock in Greater Manchester despite her constituency being in the area. "I suppose that's because they don't know where Wigan is," she snapped.

There was speculation that London would immediately move into the second stage, which would mean still tighter limits on household socialization. However, this does not happen yet.

Actions will be carried out for four weeks initially before a review is carried out. However, Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden suggested this morning that they are expected to remain in effect until Christmas.

A disgruntled Tory MP for a seat in the north told MailOnline, "I won't be walking around his house on December 25th."

They added, "It will be very frustrating when pubs close with 48 hours notice." Why not focus on the elderly and vulnerable and save jobs and lives? & # 39;

Another MP from an affected region complained that the government was "walking around like headless chickens".

Tier 2 does not allow households to mix indoors, similar to what is already the case in Middlesbrough and Hartlepool, while Tier One complies with the rules currently in force across England.

In a round of interviews, Mr Dowden said this morning that tough new coronavirus restrictions may be required until after Christmas.

Mr Dowden told Sky News, “If these measures are successful, we hope to get areas out of these high restrictions.

“This is to ensure that we have the virus under control so that after Christmas we will be in the position where it is under control.

"In fact, I hope it will be sooner."

Mr Dowden denied the government was panicking over rising cases and the imposition of knee-jerk curbs.

& # 39; We're certainly not in a panic. We are taking sensible and proportionate action because we can see that the risk is falling by the wayside, ”he told BBC Radio 4's Today program.

'Unfortunately, it is the case that the number of deaths tends to lag behind the number of infections. If you look at the leading indicators – both the number of infections and now, unfortunately, the number of people who are in hospitals with Covid – they all point to a rapidly increasing disease. The way is very clear. & # 39;

Mr Dowden said the case for new restrictions on the hospitality industry was supported by the government’s key scientific advisor, Sir Patrick Vallance.

“We know there are challenges with hospitality – for example, the obvious point that you can't wear a mask when you sit down and eat, that you are in frequent contact (with people) you don't normally meet , and we know that the virus thrives on this kind of social interaction. & # 39;

Following the Cobra meeting this morning, Welsh Prime Minister Mark Drakeford expressed "deep disappointment at the inadequate proposals for travel restrictions in areas of high infection in England".

In a statement, the Welsh government said it would "meet with great dismay" in many parts of Wales where infection rates are lower.

"He also called for more clarity on the metrics used to divide areas into each level and agreed with other decentralized executives that the Treasury's proposals for financial assistance, while welcome, did not go far enough to protect the worst-paid workers." said a spokesman.

Vaughan Gething, Wales' Minister of Health, said at a press conference: “Me and the First Minister will meet again today, but we are both very disappointed that the Prime Minister is still taking a guideline-only approach to people should or should not travel from highly infected areas.

'This is not just a problem for Wales, it is a problem for the whole of Britain. Areas with lower prevalence in England will be affected as well as areas with lower prevalence in Wales. "

"We understand that coronavirus cases from contact with some of these high prevalence areas in England have already been imported."

Mr Gething said the Welsh government, which has been considering imposing quarantine restrictions on people coming to Wales from areas of the UK with high levels of coronavirus, will meet and "make decisions" later on Monday.

Ms Sturgeon said she was putting together a Scottish version of the steps and would try to align as closely as possible with the rest of the UK.

"At a strategic level, we will try to coordinate as closely as possible with the other British nations. I think it is important and it makes sense to try," she said.

"However, I would like to emphasize that operational decisions about which levels can apply in which parts of our nations are to be made at a distributed level for each of us."

Ms. Sturgeon insisted that compliance with her breaker lockout at the weekend was "good".

Pubs and restaurants in the central belt of Scotland have been closed, while elsewhere alcohol is only served outside.

Speaking at the Scottish Government's daily meeting in Edinburgh, Ms. Sturgeon said: “The early anecdotal evidence we received from the police suggests that compliance with the new rules and the rules in general has been good.

& # 39; That's encouraging – these new restrictions are really tough on everyone, and they're tough on businesses, especially in the hospitality industry.

"Nobody is unaware of this, but they are vital to curb the increase in cases, bring them back under control and of course contain the increase in hospital admissions and diseases that we have seen."

Ms Sturgeon said the Scottish government wants to ensure long-term suppression of the virus after two weeks of measures.

The upcoming clampdown is viewed as a "game of chance" to avoid having to implement a Scottish-style national lockdown for circuit breakers in the mid-October.

Dr. Margaret Harris of the World Health Organization said the UK is now fourth in the world in terms of the surge in Covid-19 cases.

She told BBC Radio 4's World At One: “You are certainly not alone.

& # 39; We're seeing very, very large outbreaks around the world – just last week India led the number of new cases, 504,000, followed by the US with 327,000, and then Brazil.

"But the UK is number four and we are seeing the number of cases changing more and more, particularly in Europe, in more and more countries."

When asked how the UK compares to other European countries, Dr. Harris: “The UK recorded 110,827 for us last week and France reported 110,065 – you are essentially on par with France at the moment.

& # 39; Russia, like Spain, has seen a large number, but we are seeing upward trends in many countries in Europe, particularly France and Spain, but also Italy and other Eastern European countries.

Earlier, Steve Rotheram, Mayor of the Liverpool City Region, said discussions about new measures had been going on "all night".

Mr Rotheram made it clear that his main goal was to get more money and slapped Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham – usually a close ally – for yelling at the wind.

"We are trying to see if we can get support and the support package for the businesses in our metropolitan area that will be affected by the government's decision," said Rotheram.

“We were told we were going to stage three with no ifs or buts. We can either spend energy on it or try to get a better deal.

"Some people like to yell at the wind, but if they can't change the direction of the wind, it's important to protect people from its effects."

Liverpool Mayor Joe Anderson tweeted to say he found out "no but" about what would be imposed on his city.

"Let's make it clear that after ignoring my appeals for over a month, the government is now blaming us and imposing a 'dictation lockdown' without a full financial package and support for companies we are downgrading from moving forward ", he said.

"We will continue to advocate our local businesses."

Manchester politicians recently appealed to ministers not to close all pubs and restaurants in the city and instead give them the power to close only those that do not comply with coronavirus safety restrictions.

City council chairman Sir Richard Leese said they were advocating a case where Greater Manchester should be ranked Tier 2 instead of closing pubs and bars.

& # 39; They couldn't show us any data linking bars and pubs in Greater Manchester to the transmission of the Covid-19 virus. They couldn't provide any evidence that the closure will work, ”he told BBC Radio 4's Today program.

"We have much finer data, collected by our own public health directors, that shows that there is no particular link between bars and restaurants and the transmission of Covid."

The shadow economy secretary and Manchester Central MP Lucy Powell called on the government to release evidence that eateries such as pubs are associated with high risk of coronavirus transmission.

She tweeted, “The government and scientists have still not presented this evidence. The big problem for them is that local executives have the same data (actually better data for their areas) and know that hospitality attitudes are a very small part of the transmission of infections. & # 39;

Sir Richard Leese, chairman of Manchester City Council, said local officials are still discussing with the government what restrictions should apply in the area.

He said they had a case that Greater Manchester should be placed in Tier 2 rather than the stricter Tier 3, which could mean pubs and bars will be closed.

& # 39; They couldn't show us any data linking bars and pubs in Greater Manchester to the transmission of the Covid-19 virus. They couldn't provide any evidence that the closure will work, ”he told BBC Radio 4's Today program.

"We have much finer data collected by our own public health directors that shows that there is no particular link between bars and restaurants and the transmission of Covid."

Liverpool had the second highest rate of infection in England in the 14 days leading up to October 4, with 4,593 confirmed cases (928.2 per 100,000 people). The neighboring borough of Knowsley had the worst rate with 1,412 cases and an infection rate of 944.

Government sources told MailOnline that Liverpool was "basically there" to be included in Tier Three.

A Downing Street spokesman said: "Our main focus has always been to protect lives and livelihoods while controlling the spread of the virus. These measures will help to achieve this goal.

“We must do everything we can to protect the NHS and to ensure that it can continue to provide the essential services that so many people rely on.

"This is a critical point and it is absolutely essential that everyone follows the clear guidelines we have put in place to contain the virus."

It is also believed that Manchester is close to the third stage. Five city MPs warn Mr Johnson of the "devastating effects" of company closings.

Not only would "jobs, livelihoods and businesses" be challenged, but more illegal gatherings would result, they said.

The letter was sent by Lucy Powell of Labor, Jeff Smith, Mike Kane, Afzal Khan, and Graham Stringer.

Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has also blown a lack of government communication while Bolton Council chairman David Greenhalgh warned the pressures would destroy the economy in northern England.

Meanwhile, Greater Manchester Nightly Economic Advisor Sacha Lord has opened a lawsuit to question the government's impending lockdown of hospitality and entertainment venues.

Lord Lord said the leaders had "seen no concrete scientific evidence meriting a complete shutdown of hospitality in the region" and that the lawyers had been hired to conduct a judicial review of the emergency restrictions imposed on the sectors.

Union leader Keir Starmer took up the dispute to claim the government treated parts of the country with "contempt".

“The government has treated with disdain the local communities, particularly in the Midlands, Northwest and Northeast – and their leaders – that Whitehall knows best, and we will just tell you what to expect. It's just not good enough, you have to take people with you, hear what the local guides are saying, ”he told LBC during a phone call.

MEPs are asked to debate and vote on the measures later this week.

The Prime Minister will hold a press conference on Downing Street later on Monday with Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty.

A Downing Street spokesman said: "Our main focus has always been to protect lives and livelihoods while controlling the spread of the virus. These measures will help to achieve this goal.

“We must do everything we can to protect the NHS and to ensure that it can continue to provide the essential services that so many people rely on.

"This is a critical point and it is absolutely essential that everyone follows the clear guidelines we have put in place to contain the virus."

Number 10 highlighted the extent of discussions with local leaders over the weekend after some Nordic authorities and mayors criticized that there had not been enough consultations since the beginning of the Covid crisis.

Downing Street said senior advisor number 10 and community secretary Robert Jenrick had discussions with community leaders and mayors from "the highest problem areas."

Local authorities also expressed concern about the impact of tighter restrictions on their own finances. The declaration states that it is "hand in mouth".

It said: & # 39; (We) are currently unable to plan in the medium or long term.

“A clearer funding regime needs to be achieved that will allow us to move forward with the plan, continue to provide critical public services, avoid large-scale layoffs for key local government workers, and confidently budget for the next year.

& # 39; We therefore ask the Treasury Department for an assurance that if this national position is achieved, no local authorities taking Tier 3 measures will be able to unbalance their budget this year or a statutory one next year Draw up a budget.

"In this regard, we have agreed that a further discussion will take place with the Treasury Department on the matter."

The UK recorded an additional 12,872 coronavirus cases yesterday, a nine percent increase from last Sunday's adjusted total due to the government's exceptional numbers.

The numbers represent a decrease of 2,294 cases from the daily total of 15,166 on Saturday. The Saturday death toll was 81-16 more than the 65 recorded today.

Over the weekend, Professor Van-Tam said "the seasons are against us" and the country faces "headwinds" before the winter months.

In a statement, Prof. Van-Tam said that while the epidemic had "started again" in younger people in recent weeks, there was "clear evidence of a gradual spread to older age groups" in the hardest hit areas.

But he also said the UK has "much improved testing facilities" and "better treatments" which means "we know where it is and how to approach it".

Stressing the importance of following public health guidelines and minimizing contact with others, he added, "I know this is very difficult, but it is an unfortunate scientific fact that the virus is infected by humans lives who make social contact with each other. "

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