An official prediction that coronavirus deaths would soon exceed those recorded in the first wave has been tacitly corrected by the government. It was released last night because it was too high.
The projections resulted in a second national lockdown in the country and were shown at a press conference on Downing Street last Saturday.
They claimed that England would have up to 1,500 deaths a day by early December, far more than the deaths recorded in the first wave.
The numbers that raised alarms across the country have now changed "after a bug is found".
The revised numbers now indicate that the second peak is likely to be at the level of the first with the worst-case scenario As of December 8, 1,010 deaths a day – a similar number to April.
The predictions for hospital admissions have also been revised to 6,190 from 9,000 by early December.
The slides now contain a note: "The representations on slides four and five were changed after an error was found."
The revised numbers now suggest that the second high, with 1,010 deaths per day by December 8, is likely to match the first with the worst-case scenario
According to the Daily Telegraph, the slides now include a note that reads, "The charts on slides four and five were changed after a bug was found."
The shocking new reveal comes just days after the government was devastated by critics over a separate worst-case scenario that could see 4,000 deaths a day by next month.
That figure was submitted in a Doomsday dossier by Sir Patrick Vallance, Number 10's Top Scientific Advisor, and Professor Chris Whitty, England's Chief Medical Officer.
Professor Whitty acknowledged that the prediction of 4,000 daily deaths was unlikely to come true because the modeling was a worst-case scenario based on a situation where no additional action was taken.
And the former Prime Minister Theresa May gave a damned assessment of Mr Johnson's handling of the situation, saying the controversial claim was "wrong before it was even used".
The latest revelation will further increase the pressure on the government.
Ministers were warned last night not to present virus data in a “confusing” way. The statistics watchdog said that posting numbers without "adequate explanation of context and sources" could compromise public confidence.
But Boris Johnson, looking even more unkempt than usual despite his pre-lockdown haircut, insisted, "We're trying to make things as clear as possible."
UK coronavirus cases were unchanged today at 24,141, a four percent decrease – or 1,036 cases – from yesterday's infections
Another 378 deaths were announced Thursday, a 23 percent decrease in deaths from yesterday
The UK statistics agency said the government and decentralized administrations would need to clarify the data source used in public briefings and the full numbers behind it. It added: “The use of data has not been consistently supported by transparent information provided in a timely manner.
As a result, there is a possibility of confusing the public and undermining confidence in the statistics.
“It is important that data is exchanged in a way that promotes transparency and clarity. It should be published in a clear and accessible form with appropriate explanations of context and sources. It should be made available to all at the time of public reference. "
The watchdog added, "It is clear that those working on the pandemic are facing significant pressures. However, full transparency is critical to public understanding and trust in statistics and those who use them. "
The warning comes after former Prime Minister Theresa May accused Mr Johnson of picking dates that fit his virus policies and making predictions that would have influenced his decision to impose a second national lockdown.
At a press conference on Downing Street to officially invite the nation to its second national lockdown, Prime Minister (left) and NHS England chief Sir Simon Stevens (right) pointed to the graphic as evidence of the month-long intervention down
Boris Johnson released a chart tonight showing how NHS England hospitals could be overwhelmed with Covid-19 in weeks – but experts say the healthcare sector is still not as busy as it normally is in winter. The graph shows how more than 11,000 people with Covid-19 are being treated in hospitals in England, compared to just 500 in early September. However, the graph did not show that those 11,000 patients make up less than 10 percent of the total health care capacity
Speaking at a press conference yesterday, Mr Johnson – whose hair appeared to be rebelling after being trimmed on Monday – said, “The projections are very different – some scientists have very different views than others. That is why you also need to add the political judgment required for the economic consequences. "
Professor Yvonne Doyle, Director of Health Protection at Public Health England, defended the models used to justify the measures. When asked if the worst numbers were chosen to support the lockdown policy, she told the BBC, "I don't think that's the case at all. That is why these models are not presented, but to aid planning."
Last night, a government spokesman said of the last revised graph: "The main consensus projection remains unchanged.
"The data are still clear and consensus remains that, without intervention, we are likely to break the first wave of hospitalizations and deaths within weeks."
UK coronavirus cases were unchanged yesterday at 24,141, despite Boris Johnson justifying the lockdown by claiming the NHS was threatened by rising hospital stays.
Infections last Thursday saw an increase of just 4.7 percent, and a decrease of 1,063 cases from yesterday's 25,177 level.
Earlier, Prime Minister and NHS chief Sir Simon Stevens had used a chart of rising Covid-19 inpatients to justify England's second lockdown.
The graph shows that there are currently more than 11,000 people being treated for Covid-19 in hospitals in England, compared to just 500 in early September.
However, Sir Simon also explained the roughly one week delay between infection and hospitalization for those who become seriously ill. Death or discharge occurs an average of 9 to 19 days later.
Another 378 deaths were also announced yesterday, up 35 percent from that time last week.
Top pundits previously thought No10 just hit the lockdown panic button because he was cornered by his "dark" scientific advisors who refuse to deal with the same test that was thrown at them during the first wave has been.
The government's own statistics show that coronavirus cases have plateaued thanks to the localized three-step approach introduced in mid-October. It suggests that hospital admissions would not continue to rise as quickly as Downing St or its advisors claim.
Sir Simon said Sir Simon Vallance and Chris Whitty only brought a Covid-19 graph to clarify his position on hospitals. No10's top scientists have been accused of scaring and confusing the public with their deluge of doomsday charts based on projections, assumptions and forecasts – but rarely concrete real-time data.
Sir Simon spoke to the camera and said, "Like you – I'm sure the Prime Minister won't mind if I say this – I've seen these press conferences and sometimes it can be difficult to keep up with the charts, so I do All I have today is one chart that undeniably shows what we are seeing in healthcare.
“What it shows is the number of patients being cared for in hospitals across England. At the beginning of September that was less than 500 patients. At the beginning of October there were 2,000 coronavirus patients, at the beginning of November there were over 11,000. That equates to 22 of our hospitals across England that are full of coronavirus patients – these are facts, these are not projections, prognoses, speculations, these are the patients who are in the hospital today. & # 39;
(tagsToTranslate) Dailymail (t) News (t) Coronavirus Lockdowns (t) Downing Street (t) Coronavirus (t) UK Government News and Updates on the UK Cabinet (t) Sir Patrick Vallance (t) Professor Chris Whitty (t) Boris Johnson (t) NHS