The UK today announced another 21,242 positive coronavirus tests and the deaths of another 189 people as Sir Patrick Vallance claimed up to 90,000 could become infected with the virus every day.
The chief scientific adviser said the numbers "are still going in the wrong direction" but also admitted that the UK's outbreak appears to be slowing.
Official data this afternoon shows cases are 12 percent higher than the 18,980 on Thursday last week – the smallest increase of seven days in any day in one day this week – while deaths are up 37 percent from 138.
In a televised briefing with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Sir Patrick showed dias showing an estimated 22,000 to 90,000 new infections in England every day.
The startling upper estimate comes from a statement by the SAGE subgroup SPI-M, which Sir Patrick regularly models with viruses, and whose members are known for advocating national circuit breaker lockdowns.
Estimates from the Office of National Statistics are generally considered to be the most reliable measure as they are based directly on random mass smear tests of the English population but are two weeks out of date.
Last Friday, they estimated there were 27,800 new infections a day for the first week of October, including people who were never tested. A new estimate will be released tomorrow and Sir Patrick said he expected a significantly higher value.
Sir Patrick also said it now appears to be between 14 and 18 days for cases to double in the country, slower than the estimated seven days in mid-September.
In other coronavirus news today:
- Chancellor Rishi Sunak has announced a new bailout package for companies in local restricted areas worth £ 3 billion per month, offering companies up to £ 2,100 per month in Tier 2, increasing cash grants for the self-employed and reducing the hours required to qualify for vacation ;
- Stoke-on-Trent, Coventry and Slough will all meet Tier 2 restrictions starting Saturday as local officials want to avoid moving to the top tier if their outbreaks worsen.
- Nottinghamshire Council Presidents are expected to meet with the government next week to discuss whether to move the area to level three as the city still has the highest infection rate in England.
- Public Health England data shows that infection rates are falling in the North West, North East and Central Plateau regions for the first time since the summer.
- SAGE has warned that spreading the virus among young people in an attempt to protect the elderly would have "dire consequences" for the NHS.
- Covid-19 infection rates in the five worst-hit student areas in England halved in a week in mid-October, which gives hope that cases among young people are trending downwards.
- According to a government report, ethnic minority people in the UK will continue to be at higher risk than whites as the coronavirus outbreak continues as the factors that increase their risk cannot be changed quickly.
In a televised briefing with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Sir Patrick revealed dias that are estimated to cause between 22,000 and 90,000 new infections in England every day, depending on which studies are considered
Commenting on the weekly ONS data, which estimates how many people are currently suffering from Covid-19 – last week the number was between 312,000 and 362,000 – Sir Patrick said, “We expect the new numbers tomorrow and these will be higher, I am Sure, so we continue to see an increase in the total number of people with the virus. & # 39;
He then explained the new estimate of SPI-M's daily cases, adding, “The modeling consensus suggests that between 53 and 90,000 new infections can occur per day.
“Obviously, with this number of infections, you also expect an increase in hospital admissions. Overall, the number of infections continues to rise across the country. & # 39;
Sir Patrick Vallance said the numbers "are still going in the wrong direction" but also admitted that the UK's outbreak appears to be slowing
He pointed out that the number of people being admitted to hospitals every day has increased significantly over the past month, reminding people that the number of people is due to cases caused by the two-week delay between the virus and the virus has already occurred, will continue to rise seriously ill.
Despite regular warnings from the chief scientific adviser that the outbreak is worrying and will kill many more people, Sir Patrick was optimistic and admitted that there are signs of a slowdown.
The fact that the R-rate stays above one – SAGE estimates it to be 1.3 to 1.5 – means "the epidemic is still growing," he said.
“As long as R is above one, the epidemic will continue to grow, and it will continue to grow at a reasonable rate – it may double every 14 to 18 days – unless the R drops below one.
“But I want to say that there are some areas where we are starting to see real effects of what is happening. There is some evidence that rates among young people are falling or flattening a bit because of the tremendous effort people have made to hold onto these behavioral changes that we need to bring them down.
MANCHESTER OPENS THE NIGHTINGALE HOSPITAL IN THE WEEK
The NHS Nightingale Hospital in Manchester will reopen next week as the city goes into Tier 3 lockdown and hospitals in neighboring Liverpool are already treating more Covid-19 patients than in April.
A local NHS chief announced today that the makeshift hospital set up at Manchester Central Conference Center would be back on stream before the end of next week. It will be the first in England to reopen.
It had closed in June when the first wave of the outbreak broke out in the UK, but there are now fears that local hospitals will again be inundated with Covid patients.
The nightingale is not used to treat seriously ill people with coronavirus, but is opened to add capacity for "additional rehabilitation".
The NHS nightingale for the Northwest was mothballed in June when the last coronavirus patient was discharged
The city is entering the third tier lockdown rules starting at midnight on Friday after a week of fighting between the government and Mayor Andy Burnham as the city has one of the highest infection rates in England.
There are fears that Manchester hospitals could be overcrowded with Covid-19 patients following an infection explosion in late September.
In an announcement this morning, Professor Jane Eddleston, head of Manchester University's NHS Trust, confirmed that the nightingale would reopen.
"We're going to open the nightingale, we expect it to be around the end of next week," she said.
"The nightingale is not used as a facility for intensive care and was not used in the first phase as a facility for additional rehabilitation of patients."
Professor Eddleston said there are about 95 people in intensive care beds with Covid-19 in the city, a little over a third of the 260 at the height of the epidemic in April.
Despite the drop in coronavirus case numbers, the NHS had to keep beds ready for patients with the disease throughout the summer, she said. Healthcare in the region has set up Covid-free zones so other patients can continue to receive treatment.
“And there may be a slight flattening in some areas of the country. So the measures are working, but we need to do more if the goal is to get R below one and reduce this epidemic. & # 39;
Public Health England data shows that infection rates in the hardest-hit student areas had fallen by half in one week by October 11. This shows that the outbreak of England is not going as fast as it was in late September.
Covid-19 cases in teenagers and people in their twenties have been accused of fueling England's second wave of illnesses after numerous positive tests were found in September after returning from universities and schools.
Official statistics show that infection rates in districts with large student populations were up to seven times higher than in the cities they live in. However, data shows that cases have decreased in the five hardest hit areas, although none of them have yet hit the strictest Tier 3 lockdown rules.
In the University Park area of Nottingham, which had the most positive cases in England in the week ending October 4, the infection rate fell by a third (32 percent) the following week, ending October 11. However, an astonishing four percent of the region's 11,000 residents still tested positive that week.
While the area had 673 new cases in the week ending October 4, that fell to 458 the following week. The corresponding rate per 100,000 people fell from 6,108 to 4,156. Although there are only 11,000 people in the region, the 100,000 cases are a nationwide standardized measure. The highest total for a single city or county in Nottingham is 675 per 100,000.
In Fallowfield, Manchester, the infection rate fell at the same time by a massive 71 percent from four percent of the population who tested positive to one percent. At the same time, cases fell from 542 to 158, a decrease from 4,536 to 1,322 per 100,000 people. The region's population is around 12,000.
In Sheffield's Endcliffe and Ranmoor cases, the cases fell from 435 to 230 (rate 4,311 to 2,279); At Hyde Park Corner and Woodhouse Cliff, Leeds, new positive tests dropped from 377 to 231 (rate 2,714 to 1,663) in one week, and Shieldfield and Heaton Park, Newcastle had 133 cases out of 342 in the week ended October 11 (1,672) per 100,000 to 650).
Other student areas in the hardest-hit parts of the country also saw significant falls, including Rusholme East and Ladybarn in Manchester, which fell 61 and 64 percent, respectively. Pennsylvania & University at Exeter (down 41 percent); University & Little Woodhouse in Leeds (55 percent) and Broomhall in Sheffield (22 percent).
Ministers are becoming increasingly optimistic that worrying data about rising infections, hospital admissions, deaths and infections in the vulnerable over 60s has led young people to take social distancing more seriously.
Graphs featured in a TV briefing this week by Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, England's Deputy Chief Medical Officer, showed that infection rates under 30-year-olds have changed and are now falling. However, he warned that the rapid increases in these groups in September have now "penetrated" the older groups, who are more likely to die if they contract the virus.
And Matt Hancock said at a weekly meeting of the Joint Biosecurity Center yesterday on "Gold Command" that after weeks of continuous increases, cases are now occurring among young people.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has opposed repeated calls from leading scientific advisers for a national breaker lockdown and is sticking to his three-tier local lockout system that has so far placed the toughest restrictions on around seven million people in the north of England, particularly Liverpool, Manchester and Yorkshire.
Stoke-on-Trent, Coventry and Slough will all move into Tier 2 suspensions on Saturday, Matt Hancock announced today amid fears that Nottinghamshire restrictions will be tightened.
The Minister of Health's announcement in the House of Commons means an additional 745,000 people will face tighter restrictions, including a ban on socializing indoors. Almost 40 million people across the UK will live under lockdown if all measures are fully enforced.
He also warned officials are now discussing the prospect of moving Warrington in Cheshire to Tier 3 because of a "continued surge in cases". Local chiefs in Nottinghamshire are also believed to be working out plans to put parts of the county in the hardest bracket due to spiral falls.
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