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Coronavirus: Scientists assess countries' response to pandemics


A new model has grouped countries into "clusters" based on how they behaved in the course of the coronavirus pandemic.

Researchers from Australia and China found that when the virus started responding in January, China was in its own cluster that was separate from the rest of the world.

When the cases spread around the world, 16 groups and European countries started to switch from the best to the worst clusters. like Italy and the UK, in addition to the United States.

Only three months later, in April, China, which could control the virus, pulled out of the worst death cluster while Italy, Spain, the UK and the US moved in.

At the start of the coronavirus pandemic, China was in its own cluster and the remaining 207 countries in another. Pictured: Doctors care for a COVID-19 patient in the intensive care unit at Sharp Memorial Hospital in San Diego, California on May 6

Sixteen clusters formed when China moved out of the worst fatalities by April and moved in to France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States. PICTURED: Coronavirus patient Ronald Temko is loaded into an ambulance by rescue workers after being released from the UCSF Medical Center on Mount Zion n San Francisco, California, May 20

Sixteen clusters formed when China moved out of the worst fatalities by April and moved in to France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States. PICTURED: Coronavirus patient Ronald Temko is loaded into an ambulance by rescue workers after being released from the UCSF Medical Center on Mount Zion n San Francisco, California, May 20

For the study published in Chaos magazine, the team analyzed data from Our World in Data, a project that focuses on global issues such as poverty, disease and climate change.

The researchers looked at the number of deaths and deaths from coronaviruses in 208 countries between December 31, 2019 and April 30, 2020.

They then performed a cluster analysis using a set of variables to group items (in this case, countries) that are similar to each other in one group, as opposed to those in other groups.

The results showed that the clusters changed depending on the season.

For example, there were only two clusters throughout January 2020: China in one cluster and the remaining 207 countries in the other.

From case to case, more countries jumped into China's cluster. First it went to Italy, followed by France, Germany, Iran, Spain, Great Britain and the USA.

By mid-March, the nations could be divided into 16 clusters based on the countries' response to the control of their cases.

Until April, most countries were in the same death group. However, China withdrew from the groups because of the "worst deaths" and France, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US moved in.

"We … have seen some sort of critical mass effect as the cases progress to death," said co-author Dr. Max Menzies, postdoctoral fellow in mathematics at Tsinghua University in Beijing, China.

& # 39; Spain's death on March 28 was more than twice the number of cases just 16 days earlier.

& # 39; This is an amazing explosion from COVID-19. This also applies to the UD. Their dramatic increase in the death toll after the number of cases reached critical mass in early March. & # 39;

Between March 1st and 2nd, clusters for cases began to shift, and countries like Italy started reporting cases.

A further shift occurred around March 18 and 19 for deaths, a difference of 17 days from that of the cases.

This difference indicates that deaths are delayed by 17 days after the cases. that showed some anomalies.

"Anomalies can mean either a disproportionate or a low number of deaths in relation to the number of cases," said co-author Dr. Nick James, professor at the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Sydney in Australia.

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