ENTERTAINMENT

Coronavirus: London's R rate is worst in England and could be up to 3 according to government studies


Coronavirus is spreading fastest in London, according to a study claiming the R-rate in the capital is close to three and infections double every three days.

Researchers at Imperial College London, who are now catching an estimated 100,000 people daily across the country with Covid-19, warned the city of a “frightening” rate of spread. For comparison, the experts said the national R-rate is 1.6 and cases double every nine days.

They predicted the R-rate – the average number of people infected by each carrier – is greater than two in London, the Southeast, the East and the Southwest, most of which have escaped harsh local lockdowns.

And in all of the south of England, London has the highest coronavirus prevalence at 0.89 percent, suggesting that more than 80,000 of the city's nine million residents were infected at any point in time.

Scientists claimed that the R-rate in London could be 2.86, which means that the 80,000 people carrying the virus at the time of the study could be expected to infect another 229,000. The possible range of the rate – which must stay below value for a breakout to shrink – is estimated to be between 1.47 and 4.87.

The entire city is in a local tier-2 lockdown, which means people are forbidden to hang out indoors with anyone they don't live with except at work. Infection rates vary across 32 different counties – from 223 positive tests per 100,000 people in Ealing last week to 103 per 100,000 in Lewisham.

Government sources fear London and parts of the south will soon be included in Tier Three, saying it will be a "when rather than if" question. Under the toughest of measures, residents would be banned from having contact with other households and pubs would be closed if they did not serve essential meals.

But a MP warned today against stepping into the third stage in order to completely kill the warring companies. Shaun Bailey, Tory London's candidate for Mayor, told MailOnline: "We cannot stall London or let our ecosystem fail." This is a matter of both livelihood and life. & # 39;

Scientists behind Imperial's government-funded study advocated a national lockdown, now passed for the second time in France, saying the results show that current social distancing rules are not enough. Britain should "think about changing the approach".

The study found that the R-rate of virus reproduction - the average number of people each Covid-19 patient infected - was 1.6 for the past week across England, compared to 1.16 in the preliminary round. The R is believed to be between 1 and 1.5 in the north and above two in the southeast and southwest. In London there are almost three

The study found that the R-rate of virus reproduction – the average number of people each Covid-19 patient infected – was 1.6 for the past week across England, compared to 1.16 in the preliminary round. The R is believed to be between 1 and 1.5 in the north and above two in the southeast and southwest. In London there are almost three

The government's emergency scientific advisory group (SAGE) again put pressure on Boris Johnson to impose stricter restrictions after warning that up to 85,000 people could die in a second wave of the disease. Leaked SAGE projections made in the summer suggest that under a "reasonable worst-case scenario," daily deaths could stay above 500 for three months or more, and possibly last through March next year

The government's emergency scientific advisory group (SAGE) again put pressure on Boris Johnson to impose stricter restrictions after warning that up to 85,000 people could die in a second wave of the disease. Leaked SAGE projections made in the summer suggest that under a "reasonable worst-case scenario," daily deaths could stay above 500 for three months or more, and potentially last through March next year

Scientists say the coronavirus is spreading faster in London than anywhere else in England. The capital currently has tier two lockdown rules prohibiting people from socializing indoors

Scientists say the coronavirus is spreading faster in London than anywhere else in England. The capital currently has tier two lockdown rules that prohibit people from socializing indoors

"I think our study shows there are real benefits to having national policies," Professor Steven Riley, an infectious disease expert at Imperial College, told Radio 4's Today this morning.

“We could prevent the pattern in the south from changing to the current pattern in the north, and reverse it in the north as quickly as possible.

“If, in the end, we want to apply the restrictions introduced today and yesterday elsewhere in Europe, we should think about the timing. And earlier is better than later for this.

& # 39; There has to be a change. The rate of growth that we see in this data is very rapid so there has to be a change in one way or another before Christmas.

HOW ARE THE PRICES DIFFERENT IN ENGLAND?

Imperial College London's REACT study estimates England's regional R-rates between October 15th and October 26th as follows:

region

South east

Northeast

northwest

Yorkshire & Hbr.

East Midlands

West Midlands

East of England

London

southwest

R rate

2.34

0.57

1.21

1.54

1.4

1.81

2.18

2.86

2.06

Doubling time

4.3 days

-8.8 days, halving

22.6 days

9.2 days

12.1 days

6.5 days

4.7 days

3.3 days

5.2 days

& # 39; We measured a slight decrease in R fairly reliably in our fifth intermediate round (the last part of the study). Now we have measured a slight increase in R, and the slight increase in R means that current measures are insufficient. & # 39;

The investigation was based on 85,971 swab tests conducted across England between October 15 and 26, of which 863 were positive. With this information, the researchers calculated that around 1.28 percent of the population are infected.

The positive test rate in London shows that some counties have a comparable number of infections per person than the national average – 230 positive tests per 100,000 people in the week ending October 23 – while others have fewer than half as many.

Ealing, Hammersmith and Fulham and Kingston upon Thames, all to the west of the city, have rates of more than 200 cases per 100,000 – but none has as many as England overall.

Croydon, Greenwich, and Lewisham to the south and east of the city have less than half the national average, but at a rate per person of less than 115 per 100,000.

The city was grouped according to the same rules because, according to Mayor Sadiq Khan, the population moves so much that it would be too difficult to separate them.

A MP in the capital told MailOnline it was a "mistake".

Sir Bob Neill, MP for Bromley and Chislehurst, where there were 121 cases per 100,000 people for the last full week of data, said "A one size fits all approach for London has been and is a mistake.

“There is far less travel in London than usual as most commuters work from home and most of the theaters and other attractions in central London are closed. The use of our train service to London is only about a fifth of normal traffic.

“We should make these decisions more locally and give more weight to the economic costs and health damage that lockdowns themselves can cause.

“Companies in my constituency tell me that further restrictions would have very harmful effects on them. Local pubs and restaurants tell me that more than half of their bookings were canceled within 24 hours of entering Tier 2.

& # 39; Going into Tier 3 would kill them completely. I also get increasing reports of mental health problems affecting isolated and vulnerable people. & # 39;

Shaun Bailey, Tory London's candidate for mayor, said: “I will always support measures to keep Londoners safe. But no one is supported by Sadiq Khan's endless calls for more bans.

"We cannot stall London or let our ecosystem fail." This is a matter of both livelihood and life.

"Instead of asking for lockdowns, Sadiq Khan should focus on getting his job done – like fixing TfL's finances, which are on the verge of collapse thanks to its lavish £ 9.56 billion spending."

London Chamber of Commerce Executive Director Richard Burge said: “Introducing a simplified system for managing and understanding Covid-19 restrictions makes theoretical sense but needs to be accompanied by evidence that clearly explains why certain companies and sectors are targeting are increased restrictions.

“Companies have proven during this crisis that they will put the health of their employees and customers first, but after their valiant attempts to navigate this challenging climate and keep the workforce, they deserve a specific explanation as to why and how theirs Victims lower transmission rates. & # 39;

Kate Nicholls, UK Hospitality General Manager, added: “An increasing R-rate is obviously a problem for the country.

"If further trade restrictions are needed to combat the spread of Covid, it is important that they are accompanied by the right support to ensure businesses survive and jobs are safe."

Higher R-rates were noted in the southern regions of England, which were not locally blocked as often as in the Midlands and the north.

In northern areas with stricter restrictions – such as bans on socializing or stricter rules about traveling and eating or drinking – R-rates have decreased because people do not come into contact as often as in other areas. Although the southern regions have higher R-rates, the cases are still lower, so the outbreak continues to be worse in the north – the two measures need to be considered side by side.

London and parts of Essex are subject to Tier 2 restrictions, but the majority of the East, Southwest and Southeast are only subject to national social distancing rules and are allowed to socialize in groups of six.

Meanwhile, R-rates are lowest in the northwest and northeast, where millions of people live under strict rules to contain outbreaks.

The northeast, which includes Newcastle and Middlesbrough, is the only place in the country where the outbreak is shrinking. The team calculated an estimated R-value of 0.57.

To control the virus in London, which was struck by a disaster in the first wave of the epidemic in the spring, the Metropolitan Police have announced they will be sending out additional patrols to enforce social distancing laws.

The Met has dispatched additional officers to the hardest-hit districts of Hammersmith, Fulham and Hackney to conduct additional patrols in the worst-hit areas of the capital to address regulation violations.

The study also found that the prevalence of infection was highest in Yorkshire and The Humber at 2.72 percent, up from 0.84 percent the week before. It was followed by the northwest with 2.27 percent versus 1.21 percent. The prevalence was lowest in the east of England at 0.55 percent (versus 0.29 percent)

The study also found that the prevalence of infection was highest in Yorkshire and The Humber at 2.72 percent, up from 0.84 percent the week before. It was followed by the northwest with 2.27 percent versus 1.21 percent. The prevalence was lowest in the east of England at 0.55 percent (versus 0.29 percent)

The REACT-1 study commissioned by the Ministry of Health has wiped tens of thousands of people since the summer. The latest evidence from the last phase (round six, dark blue) shows an increase in transmission in every region of England

The REACT-1 study commissioned by the Ministry of Health has wiped tens of thousands of people since the summer. The latest evidence from the last phase (round six, dark blue) shows an increase in transmission in every region of England

POLICE ANNOUNCE A CRACKDOWN ON LONDON'S WORST BOROUGHS

The Metropolitan Police have dispatched additional officers to Hammersmith, Fulham and Hackney as the government tries to control the counties with the highest rates of coronavirus transmission.

As the nation continues to grapple with the pandemic, officials will conduct additional patrols in the worst-hit areas of the capital to tackle violations of the regulations.

According to data released today by the National Police Chief, around two-thirds of coronavirus fines have been passed on to those under the age of 35.

Under the new approach, officials target those who commit the "most deliberate, dangerous or blatant offenses" and who are at risk of endangering other human lives.

The hardest hit areas of the capital also include Ealing, Kingston Upon Thames, Redbridge, Hounslow, Hillingdon and Tower Hamlets.

Deputy Assistant Commissioner Matt Twist, the Met's Head of Covid-19 Response, said, “This approach does not mean that other areas of London are using fewer patrols to curb rule violations.

& # 39; In the areas of London where the transmission rate is highest, we will do our part to prevent reckless violations of the regulations.

“I know the vast majority of Londoners obey the rules that are designed to protect everyone in our communities. But there is a small minority who disregard the health of our communities, and it is these people that we will be targeting with these new patrols.

"We have and continue to listen to our communities and explain our police approach to them. We have regularly reviewed our deployment plan against the latest PHE infection rates."

According to data released today by the National Police Chief, around two-thirds of coronavirus fines have been passed on to those under the age of 35.

Under the new approach, the officers target those who commit the "most deliberate, dangerous or blatant offenses" and who are at risk of putting other human lives at risk.

The hardest hit areas of the capital also include Ealing, Kingston Upon Thames, Redbridge, Hounslow, Hillingdon and Tower Hamlets.

Deputy Deputy Commissioner Matt Twist, the Met's head of response to Covid-19, said: “This approach does not mean that other areas of London are using fewer patrols to curb rule violations.

& # 39; In the areas of London where the transmission rate is highest, we will do our part to prevent reckless violations of the regulations.

“I know the vast majority of Londoners abide by the rules that are designed to protect everyone in our communities. But there is a small minority who disregard the health of our communities, and it is these people that we will be targeting with these new patrols.

& # 39; We have and continue to listen to our communities and explain our police approach to them. We have regularly reviewed our deployment plan against the latest PHE infection rates.

'This will continue to be under constant review and if we see an increase in the number of cases reported we will adjust our response to reflect that.

& # 39; Additional patrols have been deployed to Hammersmith, Fulham and Hackney this week and we will continue to monitor reported cases to ensure we are working with our communities to do everything possible to combat the further spread of this disease.

& # 39; We are now approaching Halloween weekend; Another important date on the annual calendar for celebrating that will be different this year if the parties can't go on as usual.

"As daunting as the restrictions seem, we want to remind people that there is an important reason why they are in place – to keep everyone safe."

The REACT-1 study, which provided worrying statistics about London, also estimated that around 96,000 people were infected daily in England by October 25th.

The experts behind the investigation warned that the cases were just weeks away from levels seen during the darkest days of the pandemic in March and April. Previous projections have estimated there were just over 100,000 daily cases in the spring, resulting in over 40,000 deaths in the first wave.

The researchers sent swabs to 85,971 volunteers in England between October 16 and 25. A total of 863 were positive (1.28 percent) - more than twice as much as 0.6 percent the week before. Pictured: How the cases have increased since the summer, so the results of all six phases of the study

The researchers sent swabs to 85,971 volunteers in England between October 16 and 25. A total of 863 were positive (1.28 percent) – more than twice as much as 0.6 percent the week before. Pictured: How the cases have increased since the summer, so the results of all six phases of the study

Sickness rates also rose in all age groups, with the largest increase among 55 to 64 year olds at 1.20 percent, three times 0.37 percent per week. Among those over 65, the prevalence was 0.81 percent, after doubling from 0.35 percent. Among 18 to 24 year olds, the rate remained the highest at 2.25 percent

Sickness rates also rose in all age groups, with the largest increase among 55 to 64 year olds at 1.20 percent, three times 0.37 percent per week. Among those over 65, the prevalence was 0.81 percent, after doubling from 0.35 percent. Among 18 to 24 year olds, the rate remained the highest at 2.25 percent

The study warned that infections would double every nine days, suggesting that there could be 200,000 daily cases for the first week of November.

Imperial researchers said it is possible that recent wet and dreary weather may have played a role in the increase in infections by forcing people indoors, where the virus is spreading faster. However, they warned that a smaller decline in compliance with social distancing rules across the board opened the door for the highly infectious disease to spread faster.

Imperial estimates that 1.3 percent of all people living in England would contract the disease by October 25, which is one in 75 or 730,000 people. The Covid-19 prevalence was highest in Yorkshire and The Humber (2.7 percent) and the Northwest (2.3 percent).

The study, which is likely used to put more pressure on No. 10 to enforce a national lockdown, also estimated the R-rate of virus reproduction in England was 1.6 last week, compared to 1.16 in the preliminary round. Experts have repeatedly warned that it is important to keep the reproductive rate below the level of 1 to prevent cases from spiraling.

It comes after another 310 Covid-19 victims were registered last night and 367 the day before, which is the highest daily number since the end of May. But the 26,688 infections reported yesterday were actually the first week-to-week decline in a month – although the central testing program lacks asymptomatic and mild cases of the virus, which make up the vast majority of infections.

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