ENTERTAINMENT

Coronavirus England: Average daily cases increasing for a WEEK


Coronavirus cases in England appear to be worsening, and it is estimated that 1,000 more people contract the disease every day than last week. Official data showed today that the UK had 123 more Covid 19 deaths.

National statistics data, based on population tests, estimate that daily infections increased from 1,700 to 2,800 in seven days, currently a total of 22,400 new cases per week. It is believed that one in 2,000 people across the country wore Covid-19 in the past week through July 19 – a total of 27,700 people, or 0.05 percent of the population.

That number has increased from the estimated 0.04 percent (24,000) who were believed to be infected last week and the 0.03 percent (14,000) the previous week. The ONS has stopped saying that the crisis is growing because all three estimates are based on complex trend models and fall into one possible area. However, the statisticians behind the report say that the weekly increases indicate that the decline in the epidemic is at least "flattened".

There are 16 more deaths from Covid-19 in the UK. All victims died in hospitals in England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland and reported no deaths for the second day in a row. The new deaths increase the total death toll in the UK to 45,570.

The daily death toll is provisional and is calculated by adding the deaths announced by all home countries. However, it does not take into account deaths in nursing homes or in the community in England. The official record announced today by the Ministry of Health is likely to be higher as it includes Covid 19 deaths in all situations.

In the meantime, SAGE today warned that the R rate of the virus – the average number of people who infect every coronavirus patient – was 0.7 and one or 0.8 and in all regions of England for the first time since the blockage was lifted one has risen. The R must stay below one to prevent future outbreaks from getting out of control.

However, this does not necessarily mean that England is on the brink of yet another crisis, as scientists say the R will become more volatile and small clusters can push the rate up if the number of cases is as low as it is.

Separate data from Public Health England today showed that infection rates with Covid-19 in 63 areas of the country have increased compared to last week, with Blackburn now the most affected area with Darwen in the North West.

Health chiefs have turned the district into an "intervention area" and have been banned from further loosening restrictions on the rest of England, including the reopening of leisure facilities planned for this weekend. Rochdale, Bradford and Kirklees also have some of the highest infection rates in the country.

The number of people who tested positive for the disease as part of the official Ministry of Health swab test is also increasing. Yesterday, 769 people tested positive for the disease, and the average number of new cases within seven days a day has risen daily from 584 to 656 in the past week.

The worrying figures come three weeks after the lifting of the largest blocking restrictions on “Super Saturday” (July 4th) and before a further relaxation tomorrow when gyms and leisure centers are opened.

The worrying data on rising infections is as follows:

  • SAGE warned today that the virus (R) reproductive rate could be as high as 1 in all regions of England, with the UK's overall estimate still being 0.7-0.9.
  • The rate at which the UK outbreak is shrinking is between one percent and four percent a day, meaning that it has slowed from one to five percent since last week's estimate.
  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson admitted that Britain must live with the corona virus for at least another year. He recently said he would try to get back to normal life by Christmas.
  • British vacationers are beginning to cancel trips to Spain as the country's outbreak gets out of control again. They fear that they will be quarantined if a ban is imposed abroad.
  • Face coverings have become mandatory in stores across the UK today, but supermarkets and large retailers have stated that their employees won't be asked to monitor the rule.
  • Boris Johnson urged everyone to get a flu shot this winter after the Department of Health announced an unprecedented initiative to offer the vaccine to anyone over 50 and 11 years old.

Blackburn has become the new epicenter of Covid-19 in England. There are now 79 cases per 100,000 people in Blackburn, more than in Leicester (70). Rochdale, Bradford and Kirklees are at the top of the list for the highest infection rates across England, and the cases do not appear to be slowing down

Data from the National Statistics Office, based on population tests, estimate that daily infections increased from 1,700 to 2,800 in seven days. It is believed that one in 2,000 people across the country wore Covid-19 in the past week through July 19 - a total of 27,700 people, or 0.05 percent of the population

Data from the National Statistics Office, based on population tests, estimate that daily infections increased from 1,700 to 2,800 in seven days. It is believed that one in 2,000 people across the country wore Covid-19 in the past week through July 19 – a total of 27,700 people, or 0.05 percent of the population

The test data is collected by the ONS from swab tests that are regularly sent to people's homes to test whether they are infected with the virus at this time. People are chosen to be representative of the British population.

ONS data is considered some of the most accurate available – this week's update was based on the results of 114,674 swab tests conducted over six weeks, 45 of which were positive.

Infections in nursing homes are not included. However, official government data for diagnosed cases of Covid-19 in all situations show that the numbers have increased 10 percent since last week.

Only a very small number of people test positive over a period of time, creating a wide range of possible ONS estimates from which to choose how many people in the community have the virus.

In the last week (July 12th to 19th) ONS estimates that around 2,800 people were newly infected with Covid-19 every day. According to their calculations, it could be as low as 1,500 or as high as 5,500.

COVID-19 CASES IN UK WITH 2,000 INFECTIONS EVERY DAY

COVID-19 cases in the UK are barely declining, and nearly 2,000 people still get infected every day, experts say.

According to estimates by King & # 39; s College London's COVID Symptom Tracker app, the cases for the UK remained stable overall in July but appear to be "sneaking up" in the north of England.

The latest figures are based on data from 13,451 swab tests performed between July 5 and July 18.

Similar to last week, the data suggest that the number of new cases every day in the UK has remained unchanged. In the UK, an average of 1,884 new COVID cases per day were forecast in the two weeks to July 18.

It is slightly lower than the 2,100 estimate given last week based on swabs collected between June 28th and July 11th. In the last two weeks of June, however, there were only 1,400 new cases per day until July 4 – when "Super Saturday" led to the opening of pubs, restaurants and salons.

Experts said last week that the fluctuations were too small to definitely say that the outbreak is increasing again. But it is certain that certain cases will no longer decrease and the epidemic is "definitely flattened".

There is also a clear north-south divide across England, as the falls in the south have remained stable but appear to be widening in the north.

Around 210 new infections occur every day in the southeast, only 136 in the southwest. 256 new cases occur in London every day.

In the North West, North East and Yorkshire, 434 and 457 people contract the virus daily. This corresponds to the estimates of 321 and 401 from the previous week.

The team said again that the number of cases in regions was still so small that an increase in the numbers was not yet statistically significant. The increase in the number could be related to more tests.

Official government data also show that the number of people diagnosed with the disease has increased significantly. These are only people who are tested because they are symptomatic or receive a test because they have been in contact with a case.

The Department of Health announced yesterday that another 769 cases were confirmed in the 24 hours up to July 23 at 9 a.m. The seven-day average has increased by more than 10 percent.

The possible range in this week's estimate is between 18,500 and 39,900 people currently infected – compared to the 15,000 and 34,000 that were reported last week. This does not apply to patients in hospitals or nursing home residents who cannot be tested at home.

"The modeling of the incidence rate trend indicates that the incidence of new infections has declined since mid-May and has now flattened out," said today's report.

"Comparing regions over the past six weeks has reduced the rate of people who tested positive for COVID-19 in all regions."

Last week, the ONS announced that it has changed the way data is counted and follows trends over a six-week period rather than a two-week period. As a result, the organization said that its new data should not be compared to its older publications.

Given that the data collection method has been in place for two weeks, data can be used to "estimate the number of new cases and, in positive cases, change in England over time".

Today's numbers are consistent with yesterday's King & # 39; s College London, which measures the outbreak size with its COVID Symptom Study app, used by millions across the UK.

Experts said that Covid 19 cases in the UK are scarcely going back and nearly 2,000 people are still getting infected every day. Cases across the United Kingdom are estimated to have remained stable in July but appear to "sneak up" in the north of England.

Every day around 1,000 people in the north contract the coronavirus, an increase from the 750 that was estimated last week. But the increase is too small to definitely say that the outbreak is increasing again, but the scientists say that they are exactly the situation observe.

Data also shows that there are an estimated 28,048 people in the population who are currently symptomatic, a slight decrease from the 26,000 the previous week. Nursing homes are not included in the illustration.

Meanwhile, separate data released yesterday by Public Health England has revealed the 63 local authorities in England where coronavirus cases have increased over the past week.

In Blackburn, the country's new epicenter of the outbreak, infections rose 64 percent in just one week through July 19, as local health officials deal with the outbreak.

There are now 79 cases per 100,000 residents in the city of Lancashire, up from 48 in the past week, more than in Leicester (70), where residents still cling to a local shutdown that was imposed on June 30.

PHE's chiefs of health have turned Blackburn into an "intervention area" with Darwen, and the city has been banned until further notice, including the reopening of leisure facilities, of relaxing restrictions on the rest of England.

Rochdale, Bradford and Kirklees are at the top of the list for the highest infection rates across England, and the cases do not appear to be slowing.

But it was South Gloucestershire where infection rates increased the most from week to week, increasing sixfold from 0.35 new cases to two per 100,000 people.

The London boroughs also saw an increase in new cases, leading to Enfield, where the cases are four times higher than the previous week. In Richmond upon Thames and Hackney / City of London, the cases also tripled in a week.

If a site's infection rate increases, it does not necessarily mean that the cases are getting out of control – it could be because further testing is taking place. It is sometimes difficult to find out why the infection rate is higher in some places than in others.

The actual number of coronavirus infections in these areas is still very low, and even a handful of newly diagnosed cases in a week can push the rate up.

THE 20 AREAS IN ENGLAND WITH THE WORST COVID-19 INFECTION RATES

  1. Blackburn with Darwen: 79.23 cases per 100,000
  2. Leicester: 70.1
  3. Rochdale: 47.27
  4. Bradford: 39.65
  5. Kirklees: April 28
  6. Luton: 27.56
  7. Herefordshire, County: 23.94
  8. Rotherham: May 23
  9. Sandwell: June 22
  10. Calderdale: 20.94
  11. Oldham: 18.25
  12. Peterborough: 17.41
  13. Wakefield: 17.39
  14. Hackney and City of London: 15:26
  15. Bolton: 14.72
  16. Barnsley: 13.87
  17. Northamptonshire: 13.64
  18. Bedford: April 13
  19. Manchester: 12.97
  20. Birmingham: 12.27

A weekly SAGE report this week said that the R rate – the average number of people infected with every coronavirus patient – was 0.7 and one or 0.8 in all regions of England for the first time since the blockage was lifted and one rose. The R must stay below one to prevent future outbreaks from getting out of control.

However, this does not necessarily mean that England is on the brink of yet another crisis, as scientists say the R will become more volatile and small clusters can push the rate up if the number of cases is as low as it is.

In the Midlands, Northwest and Southwest, the R ranges from 0.7 to one, while in London, the East, Northeast and Yorkshire and Southeast the R is slightly higher and is between 0.8 and one.

Scientists said today that they were "reassured" that the R number was still squeezed below one, but warned that "it is very important to remain vigilant because it is so close to the point that it is spinning." could".

SAGE data today also showed that Britain's current growth rate – as the number of new cases changes from day to day – is between minus four and minus one percent.

The result more confirms that the crisis is still waning and suggests that the reopening of pubs, restaurants, hairdressers, and beauty salons on July 4th, called "Super Saturday," did not trigger a resurgence.

However, the numbers show that the UK outbreak is now shrinking somewhat more slowly as the growth rate has increased from minus 5 percent to minus 1 percent per day, which is a sign that the crisis has stagnated.

Dr. Yuliya Kyrychko, math reader at the University of Sussex, responding to SAGE's R and growth rate estimates, said, “It is very comforting to see that the R number estimates are below or equal to one in all regions.

& # 39; At the same time, the fact that it is so close to one and that growth rates in the east of England and the South West are estimated to be up to +2 percent suggests that it is very important to stay vigilant and ride on monitoring and efficient tracking of suspected cases to prevent an outbreak from being overlooked.

& # 39; Recent examples from the UK and overseas show that it may take some time for the infections to recover after restrictions are lifted. Therefore, special care should be taken to interpret the data and to collect and analyze it quickly and on site level. & # 39;

Dr. Konstantin Blyuss, math reader at the University of Sussex, said: As the total number of new infections is currently rather low, this increases the uncertainty in estimating the R number, and this can give both a wider population a false sense of security. and to local councils who make decisions about the disease containment and prevention strategy.

HOW HAS THE RATE CHANGED IN THE UK?

AREA

ENGLAND

United Kingdom

— —.

EAST

LONDON

MIDDLE LAND

NORTHEAST

NORTHWEST

SOUTH EAST

SOUTHWEST

IN THIS WEEK

0.8 – 1.0

0.7-0.9

— —.

0.8 – 1.0

0.8 – 1.0

0.7 – 1.0

0.8 – 1.0

0.7 – 1.0

0.8 – 1.0

0.7 – 1.0

LAST WEEK

0.8-1.0

0.7-0.9

— —.

0.8-1.0

0.7-1.1

0.7-0.9

0.7-1.0

0.7-1.0

0.8-1.0

0.7-1.0

HOW HAS THE GROWTH RATE CHANGED?

AREA

ENGLAND

United Kingdom

— —.

EAST

LONDON

MIDDLE LAND

NORTHEAST

NORTHWEST

SOUTH EAST

SOUTHWEST

IN THIS WEEK

-4% to 0%

-4% to -1%

— —.

-3 to + 2%

-5 to + 1%

-5% to 0%

-4% to 0%

-5% to -1%

-3% to + 1%

-5% to + 2%

LAST WEEK

-4% to -0%

-5% to -1%

— —.

-5 to + 1%

-3 to + 2%

-5% to -1%

-5% to -1%

-6% to -1%

-4% to 0%

-6% to + 2%

In this context, it is important that people try to follow the existing guidelines as much as possible, namely using face masks, maintaining social distance and working from home wherever possible. "

The growth rate indicates how quickly the number of infections changes from day to day. As the number of infections decreases, you can keep track of the virus.

If it is greater than zero and therefore positive, the disease grows, and if the growth rate is less than zero, the disease shrinks.

Separate data released today suggests that the UK outbreak of coronavirus may increase as 1,000 more people contract the disease each week compared to last week.

An interactive map listing coronavirus deaths by zip code in England and Wales shows that people in the North West died more than twice as often from coronaviruses as they did in London in June.

The map, using office data for national statistics, shows that one out of 20 deaths in the capital in the past month was caused by Covid-19, compared to an astonishing two at the peak of the April crisis.

In the northwest, where multiple cities in Lancashire are being screened for potential local closures in increasing cases, every eighth death was attributed to the virus in June, more than one in three at its peak.

The mortality rate was nine after Covid-19 per 100,000 people in the North West and 3.1 per 100,000 in London. Although London appears to have switched off the virus, it still has the highest Covid 19 mortality rate of any area in the UK as it was hit hard by the disease at the start of the crisis.

The capital recorded 141.8 Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 people between March and June, well above the 88 deaths per 100,000 people in England and Wales.

The Northwest was the second most affected area in the UK with 108.9 deaths per head, closely followed by the Northeast (104.9) and the West Midlands (100.2).

Nine of the ten local areas with the highest virus death rates in the UK are London boroughs, with Brent suffering 216.6 deaths per 100,000 people, followed by Newham (201.6) and Haringey (185.1).

Middlesbrough (178 deaths per 100,000), Hertsmere in Hertfordshire (166.7) and Salford, Manchester (166.2) suffered the three highest death rates outside of London as the epidemic continues to bomb the north.

Mortality has been falling in all parts of the country since May. The death toll has dropped by four-fifths thanks to the strict ban imposed on March 24. The largest drop in deaths was observed in London, where the mortality rate fell by 96.7 percent.

A separate report added weight to a trend during the outbreak, showing that mortality rates are significantly higher in poorer areas than in affluent postcodes. The poorest had an average of 139 deaths per 100,000 people, compared to 63 per 100,000 in the richest areas.

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