Cambridge University academics, whose dire warnings of 4,000 deaths a day led ministers to impose England's second lockdown, have again dropped their estimate.
The & # 39; Nowcast & # 39; team, which flows into Number 10's SAGE advisory body, estimates that between 380 and 610 coronavirus deaths will occur on Nov. 21 based on current trends.
As a reference, last week the scientists predicted that the number of deaths per day on November 14 is expected to be between 380 and 710.
In a paper presented to the SAGE subgroup SPI-M, the team warned that daily deaths could reach 4,010 by December 1.
Sir Patrick Vallance has undergone extensive scrutiny to "terrify" the public and MPs with the projection presented at Boris Johnson's television press conference to announce the restrictions.
The Cambridge team did not provide an updated estimate of the number of deaths in six weeks.
The team's estimate of how many people catch Covid each day is also down 17 percent. They believe there are 64,000 infections every day in England – up from 78,000 in the previous model, which was released on November 3rd.
But instead of admitting that the outbreak is shrinking, unlike other scientists who insist the second wave peak is over, the team revamped the model to show that the virus's spread has slowed.
The Cambridge model estimates that 64,200 people develop coronavirus every day in England. Before the lock, the number was 77,600. The graph still appears to be rising as the earlier estimate has been revised down with more recent data
A slide shown on live television when Boris Johnson announced the second lockdown showed a forecast of 4,000 deaths per day by the end of December (blue line) – it was drawn up by experts from Cambridge University
WHERE DO MOST PEOPLE CATCH CORONAVIRUS?
According to the report released today by the MRC Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge, daily coronavirus infection rates across England look like this:
Northeast & Yorks
East of England
The team said the outbreak still appears to be picking up, although the estimate of new daily cases has fallen since the last time.
They said it was too early to see the effects of England's national lockdown in the data.
They wrote about the reproductive rate of the virus, which they refer to as Rt, which has to drop below one for the outbreak to not get bigger, saying, “The Rt values are above 1 in all regions.
& # 39; The Rt versus time charts show a plateau in most regions over the past few weeks, with downward trends in the North East, Yorkshire and the North West.
'These lower Rt values could be the result of various social distancing measures, but the effects are not strong enough to bring the Rt values below 1.
& # 39; These trends in RT values and the number of new infections over time were recently interrupted by the school half-year, the impact of which is reflected in our model through the inclusion of data from the Department of Education and Google mobility data.
& # 39; After this period, the values of Rt return to their values before half-time.
& # 39; Since Rt stays above 1, the number of new infections occurring every day will continue to increase.
The data that shows the second look has passed
TRUE DAILY INFECTIONS ARE BELOW
Promising figures released Friday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – behind a surveillance system that happens to be wiping tens of thousands of people down to track the size of the outbreak – suggested that the country's coronavirus outbreak had shrunk.
It has been estimated that the number of people who contracted each day fell 12 percent in one week from 51,900 to 45,700 in the seven-day period ending October 31 – the day Boris Johnson announced the Land would fall into another economically crippling lockdown.
SECOND WAVE HAS & # 39; HAPPENED & # 39;
A study by King & # 39; s College London last week found the R-rate, which measures the speed at which the virus spreads, has fallen to one.
Professor Tim Spector, the scientist behind the study, said it was a "positive sign that we have passed the peak of this second wave," although he said the lockdown would help squeeze the virus further.
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE ALSO BELOW
Health ministry data yesterday showed that an additional 20,572 Covid-19 cases had been recorded, bringing the total number of confirmed cases since the pandemic started nearing 1.2 million.
However, the number of diagnosed cases – which is always lower than the actual estimated number of infections – was 2,682 lower than last Sunday (23,254).
Infection rates are falling in most countries
MailOnline's analysis of Public Health England (PHE) statistics on Friday found that more than half of local authorities scattered across England saw their infection rates drop in late October.
And rates fell even in areas that didn't have level 2 or 3 bans, suggesting national rules like the 10 p.m. curfew and the six rule helped.
Britain's rate is stable
SAGE on Friday announced that the UK's R-Rate has remained between 1.1 and 1.3 for the second straight week.
It has fallen in five out of seven regions of England, including the Northwest, Northeast and the Midlands, where 10 million people have already lived under the toughest third-tier curbs.
& # 39; The lockdown introduced on November 5th will have resulted in changes in contact patterns that cannot yet be quantified.
"These could affect the estimate of Rt in the near future, which will be reflected in the weekly iterations of our model."
The coronavirus is spreading fastest in the Midlands, the report said. Almost a third of the country's daily infections occur there – around 20,100.
It is followed by the North West at an estimated 12,600 per day, then the North East and Yorkshire (9,060).
In London and the south east it is 5,920 per day, in the east of England 4,830 and in the south west 3,460.
R is estimated to be highest in the Southeast and Southwest (1.44 and 1.43) and lowest in the Northwest and Northeast (1.11 and 1.14).
A number of statistics over the past week suggested that the lockdown may have been a hasty move and that the country's outbreak appeared to be slowing thanks to the three-tier local lockdown system.
Promising numbers released on Friday by the ONS – a massive surveillance program that randomly swabs tens of thousands of people to track the size of the outbreak – suggest that the country's coronavirus outbreak has shrunk.
It has been estimated that the number of people who contracted each day fell 12 percent in a week that ended October 31, from 51,900 to 45,700 in a week.
And statistics from Public Health England (PHE) showed that more than half of local authorities across England saw their infection rates drop in late October.
Rates fell even in areas that didn't have level 2 or 3 bans, suggesting national rules like the 10 p.m. curfew and the six rule rule helped.
Other scientists behind a symptom tracking app strongly believe that the country's second wave has already peaked and is over.
Even SAGE admitted that there is evidence that outbreaks are slowing in "some parts" of England.
Given the growing demand on Number 10 to reassess whether it really is necessary for the entire nation to be affected by the strictest rules since spring, the prime minister's spokesman said, "The embargo is four weeks until December 2nd .
"As we said earlier, the trend in hospital admissions is increasing."
It can take several weeks for coronavirus patients to become seriously ill, which means admissions and deaths continue to rise as cases are still high.
But eminent doctors and scientists argue that the wards are not busier than usual for this time of year and that there is still enough space across the country to treat the infected.
There are an estimated 12,600 new infections per day in the North West, along with 9,060 in the North East and Yorkshire. Although these areas make up two of the three areas with the highest transmission, they also have the lowest R-rates, suggesting that the outbreak is starting to grow too slowly
Researchers estimate that the Midlands (right) account for almost a third of all new infections per day at 20,000, while in London only about 6,000 occur per day
The Southeast and Southwest continue to have some of the lowest infection rates in the country, but they also have the highest R-rates, so it must be watched closely
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