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Britain has had 39 hospital deaths from Covid in the last 24 hours


Another 38 people who tested positive for coronavirus died in the hospital in England. Only one death was recorded in Wales and no new deaths have been reported in Scotland in the past 24 hours.

Britain's most recent total in all situations, which rose 48 to 44,650 yesterday, as well as data from Northern Ireland will be released later this afternoon.

The deaths in England, which increased the total number of confirmed deaths in the hospital to 29,051, affected patients between the ages of 40 and 98, and three patients aged 65 to 86 had no known underlying health conditions.

Another seven deaths were reported with no positive Covid 19 test result.

A total of 2,490 patients died north of the border after testing positive for the virus. This has not changed since Friday.

The latest figures show that 18,340 people in Scotland tested positive for the virus, seven compared to 18,333 the previous day.

A total of six patients are in intensive care with confirmed or suspected Covid-19, a decrease of six the previous day.

There was another death in Wales that increased the total to 1,541 and seven new positive cases, for a total of 15,946.

Another 38 people who tested positive for coronavirus died in a hospital in England. No new deaths have been reported in Scotland in the past 24 hours

The numbers come when employers and workers tell MailOnline Boris Johnson's request that the country's workforce return to offices to save the UK economy is being treated with caution.

The prime minister urged companies operating from afar to "get back to work" to breathe life into the low-cost main street and boost recovery.

He and Chancellor Rishi Sunak are appalled by the impact empty offices have on shops and restaurants in the city center – and fear that widespread homework will affect Britain's productivity.

Mr. Johnson, who was wearing a mask in public for the first time yesterday, said: "It is very important that people work again when they can now."

However, employers who have been used to blocking corona viruses for months are hesitant and say that some of their employees do not want to return while the ever-changing policies create confusion.

Businesses have reworked their way of working to get home, while saving a fortune on high overheads like rent and bills.

Instead of welcoming a rush back to the office, employers who are concerned with the Prime Minister's announcement have told MailOnline that they will be careful.

The opening of restaurants and pubs, welcomed by people in England who are now enjoying socially distant meals and drinks, has started to revive the prospects on main streets.

Companies that rely on getting customers through the door every day, like the besieged Pret a Manger sandwich shop, desperately need people to return to their offices.

In other corona virus developments in the UK today:

  • Healthcare professionals swung their weight behind the government's move to make facial covering compulsory in stores;
  • Ministers were prepared for another wave of Covid-19 in the winter as government scientists have "strong evidence" that the virus will survive ten times longer in the cold.
  • The drinkers came to the bars on the first Friday evening in months, while the nation continued to withdraw from the ban.
  • The R rate may be above one in the southwest as SAGE found the Midlands is the only region where it is definitely below

Government scientists yesterday warned that the Coronavirus R rate in the south west of England could now be above one, admitting that the Midlands are now the only region where it is definitely below the feared number.

The number 10 expert advisory board, SAGE, found that the reproductive rate – the average number of people infected by each Covid-19 patient – is still between 0.7 and 0.9 in the UK, which means that it has been hasn't changed for almost two months.

However, SAGE admitted that the top-end estimate for England has risen slightly, and warned that it could be as high as 1.1 in the south-west, where Devon, Cornwall and Dorset are located. The London rate was feared to be above one last week, but has now dropped to 0.7-1.

Keeping the rate below one is considered key since this means the outbreak will decrease as not everyone who catches it will pass it on. However, the estimates do not reflect the easing of the blockage last weekend. Scientists warn that it is too early to assess whether “Super Saturday” has triggered an increase in some cases.

Separate data released by the consultants also indicated that Britain's current rate of growth – as the number of new cases changes from day to day – is between minus five and minus two percent, which provides further evidence that the British Covid 19 crisis definitely shrinks.

Top experts warned the results that the UK is unlikely to eliminate the virus before winter, but admitted that the R rate is no longer a useful number because the transmission is so low.

In a SAGE file released yesterday, scientists said, “If there are only a few cases, R cannot be estimated accurately and has broad confidence intervals that are likely to include 1. This does not necessarily mean that the epidemic is increasing, but it could be the result of greater uncertainty. & # 39;

Health chiefs announced only 48 more laboratory-confirmed coronavirus deaths on Friday, bringing the official casualty count to 44,650 in all situations. This means that the average daily death rate has dropped to 74 – the lowest since March 24 and a 28 percent drop in a week. For comparison, 85 coronavirus deaths were registered yesterday and 137 were announced last Friday.

Other promising data coming from a government surveillance testing program suggest that the outbreak is still shrinking, but slowly. The National Statistics Office (ONS) said that only one in 3,900 people are currently infected.

The scientific advisors at number 10 today found that the R rate – the average number of people infected by each Covid-19 patient – is still between 0.7 and 0.9 for the UK as a whole. But SAGE admitted that it could be one or higher in London, the Midlands, the Northeast and Yorkshire, the Southeast and the Southwest. According to the latest estimate of the growth rate, the outbreaks in London and the South West could even increase by 2 percent daily

Separate data released by the governing body also said that Britain's current growth rate – as the number of new cases changes day by day – could be between 0 percent, meaning it has stagnated, or minus 6 percent

HOW HAS THE RATE CHANGED IN THE UK?

AREA

ENGLAND

United Kingdom

— —.

EAST

LONDON

MIDDLE LAND

NORTHEAST

NORTHWEST

SOUTH EAST

SOUTHWEST

IN THIS WEEK

0.8-1.0

0.7-0.9

— —.

0.7-1.0

0.7-1.0

0.7-0.9

0.7-1.0

0.7-1.0

0.8-1.0

0.7-1.1

LAST WEEK

0.8-0.9

0.7-0.9

— —.

0.7-0.9

0.8-1.1

0.8-1.0

0.8-1.0

0.7-0.9

0.7-1.0

0.7-1.0

HOW HAS THE GROWTH RATE CHANGED?

AREA

ENGLAND

United Kingdom

— —.

EAST

LONDON

MIDDLE LAND

NORTHEAST

NORTHWEST

SOUTH EAST

SOUTHWEST

IN THIS WEEK

-4% to -1%

-5% to -2%

— —.

-4% to + 1%

-5% to + 1%

-6% to -2%

-5% to -1%

-5% to -1%

-4% to 0%

-6% to + 1%

LAST WEEK

-5% to -2%

-6% to 0%

— —.

-5% to 0%

-4% to + 2%

-4% to 0%

-5% to 0%

-4% to 0%

-5% to 0%

-7% to + 2%

COVID-19 PANDEMIC GETS BETTER AS DUE IN SIX WEEKS AFTER 12 MILLION

The World Health Organization has warned that the coronavirus pandemic has still not reached its peak – as blocking measures are eased to make international travel easier.

Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the UN agency, said the virus is "out of control" in most parts of the world and is "getting worse".

He revealed that the total number of coronavirus cases worldwide has doubled in the past six weeks. Almost 12 million infections have been confirmed since the pandemic started in China.

The pandemic, which killed 550,000 people worldwide, is now triggered by outbreaks in the United States, Brazil, and India.

There is now concern that Africa – which has been spared the first six months of the crisis – is experiencing a rapid number of cases. Infections there rose by 24 percent in one week to more than half a million, almost half in South Africa.

It took four months for the first million cases to be reported worldwide – the milestone was reached on April 3 after the pandemic started in Wuhan City in late December.

Since then, however, it has only taken three months to confirm another 11 million cases. This shows the rapid speed with which the virus has spread worldwide.

Ministry of Health numbers released yesterday showed that nearly 250,000 tests were processed on July 8. The number includes front-end antibody testing for NHS and caregivers.

However, officials refused to say how many people had actually been tested since May 22nd, and only disclosed how many swabs were performed.

This means that the exact number of Britons dabbed because of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes Covid-19 has been a mystery for seven weeks.

Another 512 other cases of Covid-19 were announced today. Government statistics show that the official size of the UK outbreak is now at least 288,133 cases.

The actual size of the outbreak that got out of control in March is estimated at millions based on antibody test data.

Daily death records don't show how many Covid 19 patients have died within the past 24 hours – it's just how many deaths have been reported and registered with the authorities.

The data do not always match the updates provided by the home countries.

Department of Health officials are working on a different time limit, which means that daily updates from Scotland and Northern Ireland are always out of sync.

And the NHS England census every afternoon, which only takes hospital deaths into account, doesn't match the DH numbers because they use a different recording system.

For example, some deaths announced by NHS England chiefs have already been counted by the Department of Health, which records deaths "as soon as they are available".

NHS England today recorded 22 laboratory-confirmed coronavirus deaths in hospitals across the country. No Covid 19 deaths were recorded in any situation in the other home countries. Northern Ireland has been without a death for more than a week now.

More than 1,000 infected Britons died every day on the darkest days of the crisis in mid-April, but the number of victims had fallen by about 20 to 30 percent from week to week since the beginning of May.

The rolling average daily death toll on seven days is currently 74 and has been below three numbers for a week. Official data shows that the average number of Covid 19 deaths recorded every day has decreased by 28 percent within a week.

Government scientists announced today that the overall R rate for the UK has not changed, but that for England has increased slightly from 0.8-0.9 to 0.8-1.0.

An R of 1 means that the corona virus spreads one to one and the outbreak neither grows nor shrinks. Higher and bigger as more people get infected; lower, and the outbreak will shrink and eventually fade.

At the beginning of the British outbreak, it was believed that there were around 4 and tens of thousands of people infected, which means the number of cases got out of control.

According to the government, the R has been between 0.7 and 0.9 since late May, but experts say it will fluctuate more as the number of cases decreases.

ENGLAND'S COVID-19 OUTBREAK STILL BREAKS AND FALLS HAVE HALF IN A WEEK

The outbreak of the English corona virus is still decreasing and the number of new cases has more than halved in a week according to the results of a state surveillance test.

The National Statistics Bureau, which tracks the spread of the virus, estimates that 1,700 people outside of hospitals and nursing homes are infected with Covid-19 every day, up from 3,500 in the past week.

The estimate – based on eight new cases of 25,000 people wiped regularly – also found that only 14,000 people are currently infected.

This corresponds to 0.03 percent of the country's population, or one in 3,900 people. It has dropped from 0.04 percent the past week and 0.09 percent the week before.

Separate numbers from King & # 39; s College London indicate that the outbreak in England is no longer shrinking – but its estimate of around 1,200 new cases per day is lower than that of the ONS.

Department of Health chiefs have announced an average of only 546 new positive test results a day over the past week – but up to half of infected patients may never show symptoms.

A report from Public Health England and the University of Cambridge predicted on Monday that the actual number of daily cases is closer to 5,300 and between 3,500 and 7,600.

The fewer cases there are, the greater the likelihood that one or two "super-spreading" events will seriously affect the estimate of the R rate that was at least three weeks ago.

Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's main scientific advisor, said last month that Britain is nearing the point where the R will no longer be an accurate measure for this reason.

The Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modeling Group (SPI-M) – a subset of SAGE – uses data on the number of Covid 19 deaths and positive tests to find out how quickly outbreaks increase. Monitoring confirmed cases, hospital stays, and deaths is a more accurate way to identify local hotspots.

As the number of people with the virus decreases, the data they measure becomes more volatile and affected by small outliers or unusual events. A large error rate could mean that a "super-spreading" event, if one person infects many others, could increase the R-rate for an area, warn mathematicians.

R rates also fluctuate depending on mobility and are likely to increase as the blockage wears off, as infected patients come into contact with more people on average – especially if they do not show any of the telltale symptoms. However, a temporarily high R rate is not necessarily a concern if the actual number of infections remains low.

For example, if 1,000 people are infected with the virus and all infect an average of 0.8 people or a total of 800 people, the R is 0.8.

However, if 995 of them infect an average of 0.8 people each, but five of them do not recognize that they are sick and infect 10 people each, there are now a total of 846 additional patients. This means the R rate is 0.846 – a slight increase.

However, if there are only 10 people with the virus in an area, nine of whom have an R value of 0.8, one of which is a super spreader and infects 10 others, there are 17 patients out of these 10 and the R rate has risen to 1.72.

In SPI-M's SAGE files released today, government scientists said in June: “Estimates of R are less reliable and less useful in determining the condition of the epidemic as the cases decrease. There are three main reasons for this:

First, in a few cases it is impossible to estimate R accurately, and there are wide confidence intervals that are likely to include 1. This does not necessarily mean that the epidemic is increasing, but could be the result of greater uncertainty.

Second, as the incidence decreases, R tends to 1 and must be assessed in conjunction with the incidence. The political effects of R = 1 for 1,000 new infections per day are very different from those for 100,000 new infections per day.

& # 39; After all, R is an average measure. If the incidence is low, an outbreak at one point can cause estimates of R to be higher than 1 for the entire region. Conversely, small local outbreaks are not recognized. R estimates based on small numbers may not capture changes in the area quickly enough to inform policy in a useful way. & # 39;

As the country continues to move out of the block, officials say the outbreak's growth rate – the rate at which cases are increasing or decreasing – is more important.

For the UK as a whole, the current rate of growth, indicating how quickly the number of infections changes from day to day, is minus 5 percent to minus 2 percent. Last week, advisors warned that it could have been at 0 percent, which means it had stagnated.

If the growth rate is greater than zero and therefore positive, the disease grows, and if the growth rate is less than zero, the disease shrinks.

It is an approximation of the change in the number of infections per day, and the size of the growth rate indicates the rate of change.

Various data sources are considered, including the government-run surveillance test program Covid-19, which is run by the ONS and published every Thursday.

For example, a 5 percent growth rate is faster than a 1 percent growth rate, while a disease with a growth rate of minus 4 percent shrinks faster than a disease with a growth rate of minus 1 percent.

Neither of the two measures – R or growth rate – is better than the other, but provides information that is useful to monitor the spread of a disease, experts say.

Professor James Naismith from Oxford University said: “The fact that the number of cases is falling slightly is to be welcomed. This indicates that the loosening of the block has not yet triggered a second wave.

“It has to be emphasized that nobody knows how safe the relaxation is for Great Britain and that there is a delay between measures and consequences. The virus is here and we could easily see an increase in cases when a mistake is made.

Measuring the rate is no longer useful – especially at the regional level, sage has been told last month

According to the files published today by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), measuring the reproductive rate of the virus – the R – will no longer make sense after the outbreak has shrunk.

SPI-M-O, the scientific pandemic influenza modeling group, operational – advising the government about the possible course of the outbreak – said regional R rates are definitely no longer useful on June 12.

When estimating the R value – the reproductive rate of the coronavirus – it was pointed out that the numbers are not useful if only a few people test positive.

The R rate is currently between 0.7 and 0.9 for the whole of the UK, which means that every 10 infected people pass the virus on to seven to nine other people on average.

However, SPI-M-O warned: “Estimates of R are less reliable and less useful for determining the condition of the epidemic as the cases decrease. There are three main reasons for this:

First, in a few cases it is impossible to estimate R accurately, and there are wide confidence intervals that are likely to include 1. This does not necessarily mean that the epidemic is increasing, but could be the result of greater uncertainty.

Second, as the incidence decreases, R tends to 1 and must be assessed in conjunction with the incidence. The political effects of R = 1 for 1,000 new infections per day are very different from those for 100,000 new infections per day.

& # 39; After all, R is an average measure. If the incidence is low, an outbreak at one point can cause estimates of R to be higher than 1 for the entire region. Conversely, small local outbreaks are not recognized. R estimates based on small numbers may not capture changes in the area quickly enough to inform policy in a useful way. & # 39;

The scientists said they were not convinced of the accuracy or usefulness of measuring the reproductive rate, that they should not be used for political decisions such as imposing regional restrictions or barriers.

They added: “Estimates of R at regional level face the same difficulties in interpreting national estimates, but are amplified due to the smaller number of cases.

& # 39; Publishing a large number of estimates increases the statistical probability that one of them is artificially high. SPI-M-O is not confident that regional R estimates are robust enough to make regional policy decisions. "

"More important than an individual decision to relax this or that measure will be the willingness to admit mistakes and to reverse the decision in the face of new data." This is how science works, with new and incomplete understanding honest mistakes are made.

& # 39; With more data, mistakes are corrected without guilt and shame, everyone is making progress. It will be very bad for Britain if the decision to relax or block a particular activity becomes a test of consistency or a competition to find out who was "right all the time". A dose of humility is required. & # 39;

He added: “The government is right to draw attention to the problem of fixation on the R value – this is not a particularly useful number at the moment.

“It is crucial now that the test regime takes sufficient samples to recognize local hot spots, that the person is helped to isolate himself quickly, contacts are found quickly, tested quickly and, if necessary, quickly isolated. There is considerable need for improvement in this end-to-end process.

& # 39; These numbers also tell us that we are unlikely to get the virus out of the UK before winter. In any case, the virus has become global, without a vaccine we have to plan its presence.

& # 39; The virus is likely to spread faster in colder weather. We have a short break to prepare for winter. & # 39;

Professor Oliver Johnson, who specializes in information theory at Bristol University, said: “The fact that R is still estimated at below 1 across the UK implies that the epidemic will continue to shrink overall.

& # 39; This is in line with the numbers observed from positive tests and deaths, both of which continue to decline. These estimates are uncertain because R cannot be measured directly and it becomes difficult to estimate its value if the number of cases is small.

“For this reason, it cannot be ruled out that the epidemic will increase in some regions, although values ​​in the middle of the ranges indicated are most likely.

& # 39; There don't appear to be any particular trends in these numbers compared to last week, and the overall estimate for the UK has remained constant at 0.7-0.9 over the past 7 weeks, suggesting that the weekly decrease rate is approximately constant.

"However, it is too early to judge the impact of Super Saturday openings based on these numbers, as infections over the past weekend may not have led to positive tests early enough to affect them."

It comes after the results of a government surveillance test yesterday showed that the outbreak of the English coronavirus is still on the decrease and the number of new cases per day has more than halved in a week.

The National Statistics Bureau, which tracks the spread of the virus, estimates that 1,700 people outside of hospitals and nursing homes are infected with Covid-19 every day, up from 3,500 in the past week.

The estimate – based on eight new cases of 25,000 people wiped regularly – also found that only 14,000 people are currently infected.

This corresponds to 0.03 percent of the country's population, or one in 3,900 people. It has dropped from 0.04 percent the past week and 0.09 percent the week before.

Separate numbers from King & # 39; s College London indicate that the outbreak in England is no longer shrinking – but its estimate of around 1,200 new cases per day is lower than that of the ONS.

Department of Health chiefs have announced an average of only 546 new positive test results a day over the past week – but up to half of infected patients may never show symptoms.

A report from Public Health England and the University of Cambridge predicted on Monday that the actual number of daily cases was closer to 5,300, but could even be 7,600.

WHAT IS THE R NUMBER? AND HOW IS IT CALCULATED?

WHAT IS R0?

Each infectious disease is given a reproductive number known as R0 – pronounced "R naught".

This value indicates how many people infected a sick person on average.

WHAT IS THE R0 FOR COVID-19?

The R0 value for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, was estimated to be 2.4 by the Imperial College COVID-19 response team prior to commencement of the ban.

However, some experts who analyze outbreaks around the world have estimated that they could be closer to the 6.6 mark.

R0 estimates vary because the true size of the pandemic remains a mystery and the rate of virus spread depends on the environment.

It will spread faster in a densely populated city where people ride the subway than in a rural community where people ride everywhere.

HOW DOES IT COMPARE WITH OTHER VIRUSES?

It is believed to be at least three times more contagious than the coronavirus that causes MERS (0.3-0.8).

Measles is one of the most contagious infectious diseases and has an R0 value of 12 to 18 if it is not controlled. Widespread vaccination suppresses it in most industrialized countries.

Chickenpox R0 is estimated at 10 to 12, while seasonal flu is around 1.5.

WHY IS IT IMPORTANT TO HAVE A LOW R0?

The higher the R0 value, the more difficult it is for health authorities to control the spread of the disease.

A number below one means that the outbreak of steam runs out and it has an end. This is because the infectious disease quickly goes out on strike for new victims.

How is it calculated?

Experts use multiple sources to get this information, including NHS hospital admissions, death numbers, and behavioral contact surveys that ask people how much contact they have with others.

Scientists can then use mathematical models to calculate the spread of the virus.

However, there was always a delay of about three weeks in the time it takes coronavirus patients to feel unwell and die.

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