Boris Johnson's new Brexit trade deal means Britain and the EU have a "special relationship" and the "ugly" policies will end, said Michael Gove.
The cabinet minister said the agreement allowed a "new pattern of friendly cooperation" between the two "sovereign equals".
He added that he hoped the Brexit trade deal would make old rifts that have emerged since the referendum and make politics a "better place".
In The Times he wrote: “Businesses have security and the ability to plan growth and investment.
“We can develop a new pattern of friendly cooperation with the EU, if you will, a special relationship between sovereign equals.
“And there are hopeful signs that those at the most difficult ends of this dispute are setting their polemical swords in plowshares and moving politics to a better place.
Boris Johnson has also started convincing Eurosceptic Tories to back its Brexit trade deal, insisting it is the "right deal" for the country.
The prime minister admitted that "the devil is in the details" but insisted that he would stand up to inspection by the European Research Group (ERG) of Brexiteers, who will assemble a group of lawyers to examine the 1,246-page text .
In his message to Tory MPs, Johnson said, "I really believe this is the right deal for the UK and the EU," Johnson told Tory MPs on WhatsApp, the Telegraph reported.
“We have all met our manifesto commitments: control over money, borders, laws, fish and everything else.
"But more importantly, I believe we now have a basis for long-term friendship and partnership with the EU when sovereignty is equal."
He added that "I know the devil is in the details" but the deal will survive "ruthless" scrutiny by the "legal eagles of the star chamber".
Mr Gove's comments come as experts said last night that the economy will pick up again in 2021, aided by the post-Brexit trade deal.
After a bleak year marked by the coronavirus crisis, business leaders claimed the deal with Brussels would serve as a stepping stone to a "bright future".
The pound and the financial markets are likely to rise, and a leading accounting firm forecast economic growth of 6.1 percent in 2021. Without approval this would have been only 3.3 percent. Another study predicted that UK production would be 23 percent higher than French production by 2035.
Downing Street sources said ministers had trade deals with up to 50 countries, with Australia and the US as the next destinations. Boris Johnson welcomed the agreement as a right for the UK and the EU and as a basis for a long-term partnership.
"We have all met our manifesto commitments – control over money, borders, laws, fish and everything else," he told Tory MPs. "We need to remember that the main focus of the public is on beating Covid and rebuilding our economy, and I'm glad at least one uncertainty is out of the way now."
A leaked copy of the 1,200-page Christmas Eve deal suggests the UK has landed some major victories in securing the EU's first duty-free trade deal and protecting £ 660 billion of trade. The European Court of Justice will have no role in overseeing future relations and free movement between Britain and the EU will end.
The economy will recover in 2021, aided by the post-Brexit trade deal, experts said last night. Boris Johnson is pictured on Christmas Eve
The deal was almost derailed at the last minute due to disagreements in the auto industry and fisheries. It was saved through one-on-one meetings between Mr Johnson and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.
Britain has been granted concessions that allow it to protect the automotive industry in the Northeast and has signed important agreements that will ensure a certain level of police and security cooperation after Brexit.
Mr Johnson made concessions on fishing and secured less catch than requested. This led to allegations of betrayal by some fisheries leaders and:
- Priti Patel promised safer borders and an optimized delivery system;
- However, the UK has agreed not to water down or abolish European human rights law in exchange for a security deal.
- Vacationers can travel to the continent without a visa for up to 90 days and continue to have health insurance.
- British drivers do not need to apply for an international driver's license.
- CEBR forecasters said the UK would thrive thanks to the tech industry and outperform the French economy.
- The traffic jam of truck drivers stranded in Kent was cleared by the end of today after more than 10,000 were tested for Covid.
- Brussels has launched a £ 4.5 billion fund to help countries and sectors affected by the UK's exit from the single market and customs union.
Last night's momentum built behind the deal, and MPs had to be called back from recess to see it off on December 30th.
The 27 EU members are expected to approve the deal within days of a briefing from EU negotiator Michel Barnier.
Experts from across Europe will now ponder the details of the text, but there is little doubt that it will be deregistered.
The Prime Minister wanted a sure win and Sir Keir Starmer said he would order Labor MPs to vote for it.
The majority of the Tory Brexiteers will likely vote for the deal unless members of the Pro-Brexit European Research Group find flaws in the legal text. Even Nigel Farage, the leader of the Brexit party, said he would vote for if he were a MP.
Michel Barnier (center) today carries a folder on the Brexit trade agreement during a special meeting in the building of the European Council in Brussels
The EU ambassadors have tentatively agreed to implement the agreement from January 1st before they meet next week to stamp it. Michael Gove, Minister of the Cabinet Office, will now go to great lengths to prepare the business for additional border controls from the New Year.
In a Christmas message, Mr Johnson brandished the agreement document, claiming the UK had finalized its relationship with the EU. He said the UK will remain emotionally tied to its European neighbors, adding: “Tonight, on Christmas Eve, I have a little present for anyone looking for something to read in this sleepy post-Christmas moment and here it is, news , good news of great joy because this is a deal. An agreement that gives companies, travelers and all investors in our country security from January 1st. An agreement with our friends and partners in the EU. & # 39;
Ms. von der Leyen described the agreement as "fair" and "balanced" and said it was now "time to turn the page and look to the future".
Oh no! Will the series restart in 2025?
The Brexit trade agreement contains a "break clause" that allows the UK and the EU to review the deal in four years. It was released last night.
This creates a potential scenario in which the negotiators would return to bartering to gain an advantage.
It could lead to a no deal if the UK or Brussels were no longer satisfied with the current arrangements. However, it could also allow the UK to develop a closer relationship with the EU if the political will is there.
The 2025 review is slated to come after the next scheduled parliamentary elections, which means that party positions on Brexit could continue to dominate the public vote.
Echoing the Beatles, she said the talks had been "a long and winding road", adding that Britain had remained a "trustworthy partner".
It turned out last night that Britain was getting dangerously close to No Deal as the years of talks almost fell apart over the past few days.
There were last minute disputes over fishing and the future of the UK auto industry, which may have caused hundreds of job losses in the North East.
Brussels reportedly called at the last minute to impose punitive tariffs across the economic partnership in the event of a dispute over fish – a demand that the UK is fighting off.
The numerous calls between Mr Johnson and Ms von der Leyen saved the situation when the EU negotiator Michel Barnier fell out towards the end.
A government source said, “It was real when we said there couldn't be a deal. Up until the last few days it looked like we could have left without a deal.
It was clear to the Prime Minister that he would not sign a contract with Ursula von der Leyen that would not be in the best interests of the country. At the beginning of the week there were points where this could have gone either way. In the end, there were two problems: fish and car factories. & # 39;
For cars, it was the percentage of parts made outside the UK or the EU that Brussels wanted full tariffs for.
That would have made car factories in the northeast unprofitable because they bring in many components from Japan. The EU refused to give the UK a transition period to reduce the dependency of the automobile factories on foreign parts. The UK called for a situation where 60 percent of the components could be from outside the EU, which would gradually decline over the years.
Brussels originally stayed firm, but in the end the EU agreed to the transition period and 60 percent. With regard to fish, the EU accepted that European access to UK waters would decrease, but initially wanted a transition period of 14 years while the UK only wanted three years. In the end, both sides reached a compromise on June 23, 2026 – exactly a decade after the EU referendum.
Talks culminated just after 2 p.m. on Christmas Eve when the Prime Minister and EU chief agreed to zoom in on a chat – which caused Mr Johnson's Downing Street team to cheer with relief. Britain's largest corporate organization, the CBI, praised the "courage" of Boris Johnson and political leaders for a "groundbreaking achievement".
Tony Danker, general manager, said the trade deal was a "great relief for UK business" at a time when businesses are under pressure from the pandemic.
"Britain has a bright future outside the European Union and with a secure deal we can start our new chapter on firmer ground," he said.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke yesterday via video link with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen
His words were repeated by Jonathan Geldart of the Institute of Directors. "For business leaders, this Christmas present is better late than never," he said. & # 39; A deal can draw a line among the turbulent years for companies. It offers a stable basis for our future relationship with our largest market. & # 39;
Richard Torbett, executive director of the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry, and Nathalie Moll, his counterpart in the EU, said the deal was "in the best interests of patients".
Richard Buxton, fund manager at leading city firm Jupiter Asset Management, said the contract reached by Mr Johnson and Mrs von der Leyen was "something UK equity investors should celebrate".
He added, "After a very busy year, it may be the best Christmas present that many could hope for."
The full 2,000-page text of the document is expected to be officially released today so MPs can review the terms before the Commons vote next week.
The £ 4.5 billion EU fund will help the fishing communities and can be used by national authorities to carry out the border controls required under the new trading conditions starting January 1st.
According to The Sun, Mr Johnson secured his milestone after telling Brussels, "I won't sign it – I won't" after a massive tax dispute.
The Prime Minister reportedly warned the EU that his original demand to hit the UK with tariffs if they are not allowed to fish permanently in UK waters was a deal breaker.
A source told The Sun: "The Prime Minister was ready to go at this point.
"We wrote a script to explain to the world that we blew up a £ 660 billion deal for less than a billion pounds of fish."
The source said the eventual compromise on fisheries means we can regain control of our waters, as we promised in the 2016 referendum. The Prime Minister stared at her and it worked.
During the fishing dispute, Ms von der Leyen reportedly threatened Mr Johnson with what she called "hammer" – the EU insisted that if Britain did not sign its fishing requirements, tariffs would be imposed on all goods, not all Were only fishing.
According to the Telegraph, Mr Johnson said he couldn't sign a deal that included such a clause.
He spoke German in her mother tongue and allegedly told her: "A lot of lobster, no hammer", which means "a lot of lobster, no hammer".
It was made clear to the EU leader that Mr Johnson was serious about driving a no-deal result, and so the "hammer" was given up.
A source told the Telegraph, "It was by far the key call of the whole process."
"When the EU dropped the hammer clause, it felt that this unlocked the deal."
Do the deal, Frosty! How Boris Johnson happily ordered Brexit negotiator David Frost to sign the Christmas Eve deal with the EU – delivering a gift to the nation, reports ANDREW PIERCE
The Prime Minister was clearly nervous and downright nervous and was pacing up and down his study on Downing Street when the cell phone in his suit pocket began to vibrate.
"It's Frosty," he yelled at the handful of officers who had gathered in his office.
On Christmas Eve it was 2.15 p.m. and it was the turn of the newly ennobled David Frost, the EU's chief negotiator in Great Britain.
More than 25 hours had passed since a historic trade deal with Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, was "in principle" concluded. And then the wait went on … and on … and on …
The dream of a deal before Christmas quickly went back and no deal was still a possibility.
But now a big grin spread over Boris & # 39; face. Whatever Frost said, the Prime Minister liked it. "Do the deal, Frosty," he said quietly.
Barely able to suppress his euphoria, he ordered von der Leyen, who was flanked by Frost and Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator, to set up a zoom call in the cabinet room.
In London there were some of the people who had worked around the clock, except for Boris' Chief of Staff Sir Eddie Lister, his chief private secretary Martin Reynolds and James Slack, communications manager.
When the EC President confirmed that the deal had been signed, there was applause in the cabinet room.
Lord David Frost, Chief Brexit Negotiator, is returning to Great Britain at RAF Northolt in Greater London with delegates from the European Union yesterday in Brussels after successful negotiations on free trade agreements after Brexit
"It was an extremely emotional moment," said a source close to the UK negotiating team.
Boris returned to his office to add the finishing touches to his press conference, which he presented in a herringbone shirt and carefully selected tie with a delicate fish motif.
On his desk, next to the 1,500 pages of the contract text, was a strategically placed can of pale ale made by the longest established brewery in north-east England – Camerons.
"It was a clear reference to the Red Wall seats, which Boris won in the elections by promising to end Brexit," said a senior Tory.
But some wags suggested that it was in fact an excavation by former Prime Minister David Cameron that made an in / out referendum a reality.
Whatever the truth, a year after the landslide in Mr Johnson's general election, this trade deal – the blueprint for trade between Britain and the EU after the break of ties since joining the common market in 1973 – was real a milestone in the last four years of the Brexit drama.
Failure to agree terms could have led the UK and the EU to a bitter stalemate, with disastrous economic consequences for both.
While much of the talks revolved around state aid issues and disputes over resolution mechanisms, the politically charged but economically marginal problem of fish nearly sank them. The fishery and shellfish trade is a tiny 0.1 percent of UK GDP, but it has become an issue of totemic concern in coastal towns and villages on both sides of the Canal.
Much of the loan rightly goes to Lord Frost, 55 – Boris calls him "The Great Frost" – and his team.
Unlike his predecessor, Olly Robbins, Frost, a passionate Europhilist and favorite of then Prime Minister Theresa May, who passionately believed Brexit was a mistake, was a leaver through and through. As a former professional diplomat, while working in Brussels in the early 1990s, he became a stubborn Eurosceptic, appalled by the excesses of the Eurocracy. He resigned from the Foreign Office in 2013, but was courted by Boris – as a former Brussels correspondent, Boris Frost knew from earlier – when he became Foreign Minister in 2016.
During the final panel discussion, Frost, an Oxford scholar of Medieval French whose team wore Union Flag branded lanyards, was named & # 39; Frosty & # 39; more than fair.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson called the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, yesterday after the Brexit deal was concluded
It not only described his negotiating style, but was also a fitting metaphor for his mood towards EU colleagues in the last few days of the talks.
Early on he developed a "four-box grid" to describe the negotiating styles: teenager, tank, mouse, and leader. Frost said the EU leaned toward the first two while Britain was Theresa May's mouse.
According to a team member, "he reminded us that we had to be the leader in the room … we were told to be polite but tough".
There was certainly no love lost between Frost and Barnier.
Frost's habit of referring to the EU as "your organization" irritated the irritated Barnier, who snapped back: "You ask for respect for your sovereignty. Please respect ours." A UK source said: "Barnier hasn't." accepts that we are resilient, he complained that we are aggressive.
“We weren't aggressive, we were direct. It's fair to say Frosty and Barnier won't keep in touch. They really didn't like each other. But if history is made we will likely find that many of the EU leaders have lost all confidence in Barnier. & # 39;
For the past ten days, Boris Johnson and von der Leyen have been personally involved, including settling a sensitive dispute over components for electric cars, which are set to become a major export and domestic market for the Nissan and Toyota plants in the United Kingdom.
The fishing problem was more difficult to solve. The couple called a dozen times, four times on Wednesday alone.
While Boris Johnson is notorious for ignoring details, he's been all over the fine print here after promising never to "sell" our trawlers. A real sign of progress this week was when Stephanie Riso, von der Leyen's chief advisor, took part in the talks.
Riso called Frost on Tuesday evening to inform him that the EU would drop its longstanding demand to beat Britain with new tariffs if it restricts access to fishing waters. In the EU, there is talk of mutual retaliation.
In one of the many crunch calls between the Prime Minister and von der Leyen, he said to her: "Much lobster, no hammer" – German for "much lobster, no hammer". The European President has always called the EU's desire for retaliation a "hammer".
In return, Boris made a compromise by accepting a 25 percent reduction in EU fisheries with a transition period of five and a half years.
David Frost was delighted with the rise of the EU and called his officials, some of whom were already back at their hotel to go home for Christmas. They returned to work and by Wednesday afternoon the agreement was in principle made. Boris Johnson was seen in the air talking to von der Leyen during a Zoom call Wednesday afternoon. But even then, trouble brewed when both sides got stuck in an argument over "pelagic" fish.
Inshore pelagic fish include anchovies and sardines, while the oceanic pelagic fish include swordfish, tuna, and mackerel. It was a numbers game that spliced and rolled odds and tried to agree to a police mechanism to reassure the French, Belgian, Danish and Dutch fishermen.
It was the fact that fish quotas were measured in financial terms rather than tonnage that caused disagreement. A senior source said, “We thought the deal would be announced at 7pm on Wednesday, so we didn't get much sleep that night in London. They didn't sleep at all in Brussels. «
A member of the UK delegation commented sourly: “Sea pelagic fish include sharks, which appear to be all on the EU side of the water. We stared at mackerel at spreadsheets for hours. I swear some of us will never eat fish again. & # 39;
As the evening wore on, a delivery of pizzas appeared for weary officials – which caused a stir, though it had been an all too common sight for regular watchers over the years.
Von der Leyen took control of the 13th floor of the Berlaymont building, the seat of the European Commission. She got out of the way of Barnier, phoned EU leaders and kept Johnson on speed dial while her officials spoke directly to EU countries with strong fishing interests such as France and Holland.
It was a huge boost to the UK team's morale. Barnier lost both sides of the room. "There were voices raised on his side, not ours," added the official.
Before Barnier was brushed aside, frustration had grown over the seemingly insoluble dispute over mackerel. Some of the British delegations, exhausted and fearful of not being home for Christmas, burst into tears. “It was like pulling out my lashes one by one. It's painful, but everything has to be so precise, ”said one.
They tried to raise the mood by sending private WhatsApp messages through various EU officials they dealt with. They also sang songs from Les Miserables. Your favorite? Another day that summarized how the conversations dragged on.
The chorus includes the text: "Raise the flag of freedom … there is a new world to be won."
Then it turned out that the EU had used the wrong numbers to calculate what pelagic fish EU boats could land out of UK waters. After that, the agreement was quick.
At the time the contract was signed, the two teams had spent a total of more than 2,000 hours in rooms with little or no natural light in London and Brussels. They started sharing vitamin D tablets.
But that's all history now. The triumphant British team has replaced that Les Mis favorite with a song from another musical: The Room Where It Happens from Hamilton.
“There was no one else in the room where it happened. Nobody really knows how the game is played. The art of trading. How the sausage is made. & # 39; And of course how Brexit comes about.
500 pages long … the historic dossier exempting Britain from the EU: We digested it, so you don't have to!
After a year, the historic agreement between Great Britain and the EU was signed by Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen at 2:30 p.m. on Thursday.
Five hundred pages long – and not yet published – it describes the future relationship between Great Britain and the continent.
Policy Editor DANIEL MARTIN looks at the deal and key provisions:
After a year, the historic agreement between Great Britain and the EU was signed by Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen at 2:30 p.m. on Thursday
- First zero tariff and zero quota trade agreement in the history of the EU
- There will be no tariffs on the movement of goods between the UK and the EU and there is no limit to the amount of any type of goods that can be traded
- The deal covers cross-border trade worth more than £ 600 billion a year
- However, a number of non-tariff barriers will come into force, including additional customs controls and forms
- And there could be tariffs in the future if there are disputes over state aid or standards
- Britain can sign free trade agreements with other countries because it has left the single market
JUDGMENT: A British victory. Great Britain gets extremely advantageous access to the internal market for a country outside the country, which avoids the risk of 10 percent tariffs that would have arisen under No Deal. Mr. Johnson compared it to the "Canada-plus-plus" deal he was seeking.
INCHES AND RED RIBBON
- New regulatory burdens will make doing business in the EU more expensive, for example new rules for rules of origin, according to which British companies have to certify the origin of exports to the EU themselves
- However, both sides agree to limit customs bureaucracy, including new rules for trusted traders to speed things up at the border
- Additional collaboration at roll-on roll-off ports like Dover and Holyhead to minimize disruption
- Specific agreements to facilitate trade in wine, pharmaceuticals, automobiles and chemicals
JUDGMENT: A narrow victory for the EU. Britain had advocated making trade as smooth as possible, but this deal means there will be some significant non-tariff barriers to trade
TRADE: A victory in Great Britain. Great Britain gets extremely advantageous access to the internal market for a country outside the country, which avoids the risk of 10 percent tariffs that would have arisen under No Deal
- British automakers can use parts from overseas
- British car companies in the North East can source 60 percent of their parts from outside the UK and the EU – and still export them to Europe
- This level will be reduced in the following years so that companies can adapt
JUDGMENT: A victory for Great Britain. The EU did not want a transition period
Subsidies and State Aid
- Both sides need to be transparent about the subsidies they give companies to ensure companies are not receiving an unfair advantage
- The EU and the UK need to set up an independent authority to oversee state aid
- There is no set limit to how much state aid is considered a problem and disputes are resolved on a case-by-case basis
JUDGMENT: A tie. The UK is not bound by EU state aid rules, which regulate how much aid governments can give companies – on the other hand, it does not have complete freedom
- The free movement of services will end, which means that UK companies will have to comply with different rules in the Member States
Five hundred pages long – and not yet published – it describes the future relationship between Great Britain and the continent. Pictured: Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen on the steps of No. 10
- No decision on the “equivalence” that would allow financial firms such as banks to sell their services to the EU internal market from the City of London
- No joint declaration in support of enhanced cooperation in financial supervision until at least March
JUDGMENT: A victory for the EU. Services make up 80 percent of UK exports and are not included in the deal, leaving Brussels in the driver's seat
LEVEL PLAY FIELD
- No obligation to "dynamic alignment" or anything that would force the UK to reflect European standards
- Both sides agree on a "non-regression" clause, which means that they are not allowed to lower their standards in order to undercut each other in trade
- This applies to environmental regulations, social and labor standards, and tax transparency
- The UK agreed to a "compensation mechanism" whereby the EU could hit back with tariffs if the UK takes action that gives its companies an unfair advantage
JUDGMENT: Narrow win for Great Britain. The government will not have to go in step with changes in EU standards, but the UK's access to the European market will be restricted if it diverges too far – and it cannot go below agreed standards in order to gain a competitive advantage
- No role for the European Court of Justice
- Either side can beat the other with tariffs – but if either side finds the decision unfair, they can take it to an arbitration board
- A partnership council made up of representatives from the EU and the UK will monitor the implementation of the agreement
CRIME, SECURITY AND EXTRADITION: Britain Wins. The others had often said that it would be impossible to reach such an agreement without referring it to the European Court of Justice
- If no agreement is reached, an international arbitration tribunal chaired by an independent person will make a binding decision
- Tariffs can only be levied by the arbitrator, and the EU cannot unilaterally impose "lightning tariffs".
JUDGMENT: A clear win for Great Britain. This was an important demand: Britain should remain outside the scope of EU law. The new dispute settlement mechanism will be based on international law. Mr Johnson has also rejected the EU's demands for a "ratchet clause" that would have allowed the EU to impose unilateral tariffs if it were not satisfied with our standards or state aid
- The UK will cut back 25 percent of the current EU fish quota, worth £ 146 million a year
- However, this will only happen after a transitional period of five and a half years to allow EU fishermen to look for other fishing grounds
- At the end of this period, the UK will be responsible for around two thirds of its catch
- From 2026, negotiations will be held annually on the scope of European access
- The EU has dropped its "hammer" requirement to impose sanctions in any sector it wants if it doesn't get what it wanted for the fisheries
JUDGMENT: A narrow EU victory. A major compromise from the UK after the most difficult part of the discussions. After three years, Mr Johnson had wanted to get 80 percent of the EU quota back, but in the end he had to agree to be even lower than his last offer of 35 percent.
British fishermen will be in a better position than before, but the deal will still be a bitter blow. Brussels dropped its call for a link between fisheries and trade deals and removed the risk of UK companies being denied access to the internal market following fish disputes
FISCHEN: A narrow EU victory. A major compromise from the UK after the most difficult part of the discussions
- Farmers benefit from zero tariffs and zero quotas
- However, UK agri-food shipments must have health certificates and undergo hygienic controls
- Both sides can adhere to their own hygiene standards
JUDGMENT: Great Britain wins. The zero tariff agreement is much better than the equivalent under WTO rules, where tariffs of up to 40 percent could have been introduced
AVIATION AND TRUCKS
- The EU has not granted automatic recognition to UK aerospace designs and products
- This will not happen until the EU gains confidence in the UK's ability to regulate
- Both sides commit to an efficient administration of the visa and border regulations for freight forwarders
JUDGMENT: Tight EU victory. Britain had hoped for a bigger deal on aviation
CRIME, SECURITY AND EXTRADITION
- Cooperation in the investigation of terrorism and serious crime
- The UK will no longer have real-time access to DNA, fingerprint and passenger information, but will get it quickly
- The UK is losing membership of Europol and Eurojust, but the UK will work with them
- Close cooperation on extraditions, but with further protective measures that go beyond the European arrest warrant
JUDGMENT: Great Britain wins. The others had often said that it would be impossible to reach such an agreement without referring it to the European Court of Justice. This has been achieved and the UK also reserves the right to deport foreign criminals
TRAVEL AND MIGRATION
- Vacationers can visit the continent for 90 days without a visa
TRAVEL AND MIGRATION: Another UK victory. One of the main promises of the campaign was that Britain could set its own immigration policy
- No work permit for business travelers who can travel to the EU for 90 days in a period of 180 days
- EU pet passports are no longer valid for UK residents
- Ending the free movement of people with the EU; replaced by a points-based immigration system
JUDGMENT: Another win in the UK. One of the main promises of the campaign was that Britain could set its own immigration policy.
EDUCATION AND SKILLS
- The UK will not participate in the Erasmus University exchange program and will replace it with a cheaper “Turing” program
- No automatic mutual recognition of professional qualifications such as doctors, veterinarians and engineers
- Provides a framework for future recognition
- Agreement on Recognition of Qualifications of Lawyers
JUDGMENT: EU wins. The UK had asked for "full coverage" of mutual recognition of professional qualifications.
EDUCATION AND QUALIFICATIONS: EU victory. The UK had asked for "full coverage" of mutual recognition of professional qualifications
HEALTH AND SOCIAL SECURITY
- European Health Insurance Cards (EHIC) are still valid and allow UK nationals access to free healthcare on the continent
- Coordinating various social security rules that enable people living abroad to have access to pensions
- Agreement prevents child benefit from being exported
JUDGMENT: Great Britain wins. The UK will keep control of social security benefits for EU migrants while ensuring that vacationers have access to free health care
- The province must comply with internal market rules to ensure that its border with Ireland remains open
- Customs procedures for goods crossing the Irish Sea as Northern Ireland will have access to the EU Customs Union while remaining in the UK Customs Union
- Some plant and animal products are physically checked, but not at the border
- Ulster will continue to be subject to many EU regulations overseen by the European Court of Justice
JUDGMENT: A compromise. This had to be approved by Mr Johnson so that the UK would not be subject to the setback that undermined the deal with Theresa May
HEALTH AND SOCIAL SECURITY: Britain wins. The UK will keep control of social security benefits for EU migrants while ensuring that vacationers have access to free health care
- After four years, the whole deal could be terminated if either the UK or the EU felt it wasn't working
- The entire trade agreement can also be reopened if both sides cannot resolve a serious dispute
- Individual chapters of the trade agreement can also be reopened in the event of a dispute
JUDGMENT: Great Britain wins. This ensures that UK sovereignty is preserved if it is dissatisfied with the way the agreement works. It ensures that the UK does not face unilateral sanctions from Brussels.
What does this deal mean for you? Visa-free travel every six months, no driving license on the continent – but vacation homes could cost more and food prices could rise
Visa-free travel for six months per year
Can I still go on vacation in Europe?
Yes. British citizens can travel across Europe without a visa for up to six months a year and a maximum of 90 days within a 180-day period. This would have been the case even in a no-deal scenario. However, freedom of travel may still be restricted by emergency coronavirus restrictions. You should have at least six months on your passport before you travel as recommended by the government. From 2022, UK nationals will also have to pay for a visa exemption system to visit many EU countries. The fee has yet to be set by the EU but it covers three years and allows people to enter the Schengen area for up to 90 days within a period of 180 days.
Will my European Health Insurance Card (EHIC) still work?
Yes, for now the UK will have its own version. All EHIC cards issued before the end of 2020 are valid – but only until their expiry date. After that, the UK will issue a new card called the UK Global Health Insurance Card (GHIC). However, there are no further details on how you can get it or when it will be available.
What will the new card cover?
Like the EHIC, it will cover chronic or pre-existing illnesses and routine maternity care and emergencies.
The Brexit agreement states that any specialized treatment such as dialysis or cancer treatment "must be subject to a prior agreement between the insured person and the unit providing the treatment" to ensure that the treatment is available.
Can I still take my pet with me on vacation in Europe?
Yes, although pet passes will no longer be valid from January 1st. It was agreed that the UK would be granted "Part Two" status to allow pets to travel within EU borders. Owners must ensure that their pets have been vaccinated against rabies and have been microchipped in order to receive an animal health certificate. You must receive a new certificate ten days before you travel. The document is only valid for four months and for a single trip. By law, dogs in the UK must already be microchipped. A consultation is ongoing to extend this to cats next year.
British citizens can travel across Europe without a visa for up to six months a year and a maximum of 90 days within a 180-day period
Any surprises in the supermarket?
Will my weekly purchases cost more?
Hopefully not in the long term. Companies have welcomed the agreement, which enables duty-free and quota-free access to one of the largest markets in the world. A no deal Brexit would have increased food costs for British consumers by £ 3 billion a year, according to the British Retail Consortium.
The trade organization that represents UK retailers said households across the country could exhale a "collective sigh of relief". However, executive director Helen Dickinson warned that the government must act quickly to dismantle the January 1st incoming controls and bureaucracy.
Will the shelves be empty?
We may have a problem here. An overview published by the European Commission suggested that the EU would immediately introduce strict new controls on food – with no grace period.
Leaders in the UK food and agriculture sectors have warned that this, plus the Dover chaos and last minute nature of the business, is likely to result in some price hikes. They also fear that perishable food will get stuck in border lines. According to the Cold Chain Federation, the UK food chain could be "slower, more complex and more expensive" for months, if not years.
Keep an eye on the crooks
Will we know if EU criminals are coming to the UK?
Yes … to a certain extent. As expected, UK police and intelligence agencies are set to be cut off from the EU's most sensitive real-time crime databases. However, the security services still have access to important passenger data, criminal record information as well as DNA, fingerprint and vehicle registration data via the PNR and Prüm databases.
Can we catch criminals fleeing the UK?
Not so easy. We will no longer be part of the European arrest warrant system, which enables the rapid extradition of criminals between EU countries. It is not clear what this will replace. However, our police force will still be able to extradite criminals through Interpol and use the 1957 European Convention on Extradition.
We will likely have to wait for the full document to see if there are safeguards in place for Britons residing abroad. Cyprus is shown
The home could cost a little more
What about my holiday home?
We will likely have to wait for the full document to see if there are safeguards in place for Britons residing abroad.
Experts have already warned that property taxes could rise at higher rates that only apply to non-EU citizens.
Property insurance costs could also rise, making it more difficult for UK citizens who want to buy houses or apartments in the EU to obtain mortgages.
Students "cheated" when the UK ended the Erasmus exchange program because it was "too expensive" under the Brexit deal
Boris Johnson was accused of betraying thousands of students after Britain withdrew from the Erasmus exchange program.
The program, which allowed students to study in countries across Europe for up to a year, is being replaced with a worldwide program named after the pictured Bletchley Park code breaker Alan Turing.
Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator, regretted the UK's decision to leave the country.
But Mr Johnson said the UK made the "hard choice" because the system was "extremely expensive".
He said at a press conference: "Students will not only have the opportunity to visit European universities, but also the best universities in the world."
The Erasmus program provides financial support to participants and around 17,000 UK students take part each year.
The move to give up Erasmus has been heavily criticized.
Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon tweeted: "The end of UK participation in Erasmus – an initiative that has broadened the opportunities and horizons for so many young people – is cultural vandalism by the UK government."
Layla Moran, MP for Lib Dem, said it was "betrayal of young people".
The new program is not expected to fund students coming to the UK, as is the case now with Erasmus. A report this year said Erasmus is worth £ 243 million a year to the UK economy after the cost of membership thanks to EU students visiting the UK.
Labor MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle said a unilateral program would make Britain poorer.
However, all owners will continue to be protected by the United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the European Convention on Human Rights.
What if i live in the EU?
The British already living in Europe, whose rights were previously protected by the British Withdrawal Agreement of 2019, were not reassured.
As of January 1st, the UK will no longer have free movement, which means that Brits will need a visa if they want to stay in the EU for more than 90 days.
No information is yet available on whether concessions will be made to current expats.
Expats who continue to enjoy their favorite television programs from home should prepare for this – it can become more difficult for them to watch UK channels abroad.
British TV and video-on-demand providers can no longer offer their services across Europe unless they relocate part of their business to an EU member state.
The pound in your pocket
Will it be harder to access my money?
It is uncertain. Banks may need to apply for a license to work in each EU country. This is costly and time consuming.
Will it cost more to get paid on vacation?
Not if the current prices need to be changed. The pound sterling rose before the deal – a good thing if you are on vacation on the continent as a stronger pound means your money is worth more in euros.
Take care when you call
Do I pay extra to use my mobile phone abroad?
Probably not – as long as you are careful. The EU ban on roaming charges ends on January 1st. Under the agreement, however, the UK and the EU have agreed to work together on “fair and transparent tariffs for international mobile roaming”.
Fortunately, four major carriers in the UK – EE, 02, Vodafone and Three – have stated that they have no plans to reintroduce roaming charges.
It works as usual … with a few new rules
Can I still work in the EU?
With a little more difficulty. The British no longer have complete freedom to work or start a business in the EU. However, provisions have been made to facilitate short-term business travel. For stays of more than 90 days you need a visa.
What if I am a specialist in my field?
Highly skilled workers who have been seconded to the EU are subject to less stringent regulations. Managers can stay for up to three years and trainees for one year.
However, it will likely be more difficult for doctors, nurses, dentists, engineers, and veterinarians who wish to practice abroad, as qualifications are no longer automatically recognized. Instead, they have to apply for a new recognition in each Member State they go to.
Can i study abroad?
Yes. The UK has pulled out of the EU-funded Erasmus student exchange program for financial reasons, but is being replaced with a new program named after Bletchley Park code breaker Alan Turing, which allows British students to visit universities around the world.
Can I still drive in Europe?
Yes. The UK Mission to the EU said last night that people with a UK-issued driver's license would not need an international license to drive in the EU, as previously thought likely.
How do I get the additional documents?
An international driving license can be obtained from the Post Office for £ 5.50. You will also need a car insurance green card, which will prove that you are insured in the UK through your provider. This can take up to six weeks.
RICHARD LITTLEJOHN: Merry Christmas, the Brexit war is over!
The best way to evaluate Boris' trade deal with the EU is to look at who is for and who is against. Despite the bad blood between the two, Nigel Farage has magnanimously, if cautiously, welcomed the agreement.
While Farage wisely holds the final verdict until he has read the fine print, he can see the big picture and grasp the historical significance of what has been achieved.
"The Brexit war is over," said the man who, for the past three decades, has campaigned for Britain to drop the shackles of Brussels.
With laudable grace and a conspicuous lack of inveterate remains, the Brexit party leader freely admitted that the prime minister would be remembered as "the man who got the job done".
In the meantime, the savage federations of The Guardian and The Independent condemn the deal, although the agreement was welcomed by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. They only managed to expose their desperation and lack of argument.
After losing all the major battles, opponents of the deal now have to cling to straws and ponder the status of sprout potatoes grown in Scotland and something called Erasmus that sounds like a brand of shaving cream.
It turns out that Erasmus is a European student exchange program that is being replaced by a new program named after British Enigma genius Alan Turing, which offers students the opportunity to visit the best overseas universities not just in Europe but all over the world Visit world.
So there is no great need.
The best way to evaluate Boris' trade deal with the EU is to look at who is for and who is against. Despite the bad blood between the two, Nigel Farage (pictured) has magnanimously, if cautiously, welcomed the deal
And when he spoke of gracefulness, Labor leader Max Headroom showed his irrelevance by closing the deal before announcing that he would tell his party to vote for it in parliament. What a complete and utter lawyer.
Like Boris, Starmer is clearly in favor of having his cake and eating it, at least when it comes to Brexit – which he vehemently opposed but now pretends to be supporting a cynical ploy aimed at appealing to abandoned Labor voters in the north and win back in the Midlands to the Tories in droves in the last election.
I suspect if Boris can leave this Covid nightmare behind, they won't be fooled again.
Of course, as with everything related to the EU, the devil is in the details – 500 pages of it in advance, another 1,500 are pending. Every British Chancellor's budget contains hidden nasties like the pie tax, which is hidden on page 94, paragraph XI, and which only becomes visible days later.
Can we also expect this trade deal to throw up some undesirable lawsuits for the depths of the world brought by EU lawyers practicing the art of deception?
But unless we sold a ringworm-infused Christmas puppy, nothing should prevent the deal from earning the Commons seal of approval next week. Even Farage has admitted that if he were a MP he would vote in principle.
Reservations aside, this is something that recalcitrant Brexiteer ultras at the Tory European Research Group should keep in mind when considering defying the deal in order to achieve absolute ideological purity.
You should also see how far we've come. A little over two years ago, the deal Boris has now struck was beyond our wildest imagination.
In October 2018, some of us were desperate at the nightmare of Mother Theresa's failed handover of Checkers, which would have permanently condemned us to vassal status, and the shameful efforts of a Remain Parliament and partisan spokesman to dismiss the referendum result . Here's what I wrote back then: "Even die-hard" no deal "Brexiters like me have to accept, as Mick Jagger said, that you can't always get what you want.
“The best we can possibly hope for at this late stage is a Norway-for-Now deal that would get us out of the EU without any obstacles to smooth trade. It wouldn't be ideal, but we could try looking out the bones later. & # 39;
In the end we have Norway Plus Plus Plus Plus – minus everything we wanted for fishing for now.
Unlike Norway, we don't have to pay Brussels a cent for access to the internal market. We negotiated the first no-tariff-no-quota deal that the EU has made with any other country.
There will be no free movement and we will no longer be subject to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
As the vacation campaign promised in 2016 demonstrated, we have regained control of our money, our borders, our laws and, yes, our traditional waters. We are again a sovereign coastal state.
Brexit means Brexit at last.
I fully understand the disappointment of those in the fishing industry, unhappy that foreign vessels are still allowed to scour our waters and take over the lion's share of the catch.
But it only lasts five and a half years, after which we take full autonomy over the fishing. Given that we voted for vacation four and a half years ago, it will pass instantly.
It will also give us time to rebuild our fishing fleet with the help of generous government grants.
Our negotiating position will continue to consolidate until 2026 as we continue to trade with the rest of the world and our dependence on business increases with the shrinking EU.
Those four and a half years should also be put into perspective, alongside the five decades since former Prime Minister Grocer Heath sold out our fishing industry in exchange for a seat at the lobster dinner banquet tables in Brussels.
From a personal point of view, January will be 50 years since I started working on a now-defunct local weekly newspaper. Throughout my career in journalism, Europe has been a running pain that was never far from erupting.
As a young Hack I was against joining. In 1975 I voted against our continued membership in Harold Wilson's referendum.
In the early nineties, I did my own shows on LBC Radio, railing against the Maastricht Treaty on a daily basis, with regulars Bill Cash and a young MP named Iain Duncan Smith.
I was on the air on the afternoon of Black Wednesday in September 1992 when Chancellor Norman Lamont wasted billions and tried in vain to tie the pound to the ERM, the dress rehearsal for the euro.
LBC's finance editor rushed into the studio every five minutes when Lamont raised interest rates and eventually hit an astronomical 15 percent.
That day I decided that our membership of the EU was doomed, however long it would be before it imploded. It was also the day that a certain Nigel Farage, then a town trader, resigned from the Tory party, joined UKIP, and dedicated his life to solitary pursuit of Britain out of the sclerotic European superstate.
Later, when I graduated from Sky, I was about the only TV host who would give Farage a platform. He later admitted to me that there were times when he too wondered if it was worth the effort, given the abuse – physical and verbal – he had endured and the financial sacrifices he had made.
But it was spectacularly confirmed in 2016 when Britain voted for Leave.
Without an upbeat Boris to run the official vacation campaign, Project Fear would almost certainly have prevailed. But Farage made the referendum possible and worked tirelessly for victory.
Perhaps the prime minister can now return Farage's generosity and belatedly reward him with knighthood or nobility.
After all, if the Lords are to continue as a Chamber of Auditors, there is no one better qualified than a man who has spent his life sifting through European directives and defending British interests.
Boris is rightly enjoying the moment, but the credit also belongs to the British people.
As Farage says, "This victory pays homage to the common men and women who opposed the Westminster establishment – and won."
However we voted in 2016, today we can all exhale a well-deserved sigh of relief. As the mail said the morning after the referendum, "Take a bow, Britain."
And as Ursula von der Leyen quoted Paul McCartney: "It was a long and winding road."
Can you say it out loud. And if the deal is good enough for Farage, it's good enough for me.
Or how another Beatle might have come to the conclusion: Happy Xmas, the Brexit war is over.
HENRY DEEDES: When he swung his Brexit deal, the prime minister had the dizzying look of a child – in the middle of a sugar rush – and was eager to open his stocking
There he stood in front of a brightly decorated tree, a little nervous and chopped by dogs, his mouth slightly crooked, caught somewhere between grinning and smiling.
It was evident that he wanted to appear magnanimous in his hour of triumph, but the eyes gave him away.
With Boris it's always the eyes. Buried deep in their pedestals, they sparkled mischievously like two bulging comets exploding across a clear night sky.
The prime minister had the dizzying look of a child who was in the middle of a sugar rush just eager to soak in his stocking. The deed was done 1,646 days since Britain voted to leave the European Union
On Christmas Eve and in his most personal video address to the nation, the Prime Minister wore the dizzying gaze of a child who was in the middle of a sugar frenzy just eager to dive into his stocking.
And honestly, who could blame him?
EU ambassadors will implement a preliminary Brexit deal from January 1st as MPs will be forced to wait until next year to vote on it
EU ambassadors plan to provisionally implement Boris Johnson's trade deal from January 1st – before the European Parliament gives final approval next year.
The bloc's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, briefed the ambassadors yesterday after it was announced on Thursday that an agreement had been reached.
Diplomats said they want to apply the deal on a provisional basis, although they will meet again on Monday to make a final decision on whether to support it.
This means that EU officials will now have to spend their Christmas holidays thinking about the details of the text, which is up to 2,000 pages long, including appendices and footnotes.
However, the timetable also means that the European Parliament will have to wait until next year to give its approval, much to the annoyance of MEPs who have complained about being excluded from the whole process. All of this means that the chaos of No Deal Brexit has now been avoided, unless a government decides at the last minute to unexpectedly veto the deal.
It is almost certain that the deal will be stamped after the weekend that ends nine months of arduous negotiations on Britain's trade relations with the bloc. France had long threatened to veto a dispute over fishing rights after Brexit before stepping down earlier this week.
At a sober press conference on Christmas Eve, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said it was time for the EU to move away from the Brexit debates that have dominated the past four and a half years.
She added, “I know this is a difficult day for some. I would like to say to our friends in Great Britain: Farewell is so sweet sorrow. But to use a line from TS Eliot: What we call the beginning is often the end, and to make an end is to make a beginning. I say to all Europeans: it is time to leave Brexit behind, our future is made in Europe. & # 39;
One of the closest allies of French President Emmanuel Macron went on the air yesterday and welcomed the "good deal" as a success for the EU.
French European Minister Clement Beaune told Europe 1: "We needed an agreement that is less than the British one", as it was a vital need for them.
He added that UK food and industrial products entering the European single market after January 1st will not pay tariffs "but must all meet our standards". "In terms of sovereignty regained, I think we did better, to be honest," he said.
Mr Beaune added that the UK needed more of an agreement than Brussels to get duty-free access to the bloc's internal market.
And in a barely disguised blow to Mr Johnson, he said: “The allure of total sovereignty – the idea that a country – even a large country of about 60 million people – can live alone in the age of globalization is madness and a lie. Those who said this have already turned around. Otherwise they would have left with a no deal. & # 39;
The lengthy negotiations ended just a week before the end of the Brexit transition period, which meant that politicians and officials in the UK and Brussels were forced to tear up their Christmas plans.
"Ending the talks was the best gift ever," said an EU diplomat who missed his plane home and is now stuck in the Belgian capital for vacation.
“Let's hope that it really is the end and that there is no drama in the House of Commons. That would mean the British ruined our Christmas party for nothing. & # 39;
MPs and colleagues are due to be returned to Westminster on Wednesday to vote on the deal.
Chancellor Angela Merkel said she was "confident" that the EU-UK deal was a "good result". "Great Britain will also remain an important partner for Germany and the European Union outside the European Union," she said.
The French President also welcomed the fact that a no deal had been avoided. "The deal with the United Kingdom is important to protect our citizens, our fishermen and our producers," Macron wrote on Twitter on Thursday.
In his hands he held a "little present" filled with "good news of joy". Something he promised would bring "business and traveler safety".
It was a fierce, groaning 2,000-page trade deal that had only been signed hours before when that cloud of white smoke finally rose over the rooftops of Brussels.
Yes that's right. After 1,646 days of excruciating conflict since Britain voted to leave the European Union, the deed was done.
The "oven-ready deal" the Prime Minister had promised us was now "the feast – and full of fish!"
Of course he made it easy. I passed it off as a no-brainer. The weighty document, he said, would be ideal reading for a "drowsy moment after Christmas".
What an upbeat tonic this news was. For so long during this pandemic, we have become accustomed to an abandoned figure delivering its daily barrage of horror.
In addition, with these groundbreaking announcements there is always the danger of looking like a confident blowhard.
Instead, Boris decided to mark this turning point in our island's history by indulging us with a much-needed cabaret act.
Here was old Boris. Bubbly. Playful. A little stupid.
He admitted that we had been robbed of our traditional Christmas festivities "full of crackers and smooches under the mistletoe". And left us in no doubt that difficult times are upside down.
But for now. Brexit? Mes amis, c & # 39; est fini. Oh how did we have to wait?
The excitement had grown steadily since Wednesday night, but by noon on Christmas Eve we were warned that the negotiations were in danger of turning into Christmas Day.
Amazing how the prospect of disrupting the Christmas gargle can focus the minds of these eurocrats.
Just before 3:30 p.m. the Prime Minister went to the lectern on Downing Street and explained the new dawn we had been waiting for.
He announced that he had "signed a major treaty" that would allow Britain to "regain control of our destiny".
From now on we could make our own laws, our own rules. Finally we would no longer have jurisdiction from the dreaded European Court of Justice.
Hit the Elgar!
By Boris & # 39; low standards, he looked almost presentable. His suit was only slightly wrinkled.
Around his neck was a haphazard tie adorned with fish. A little nod to us to regain control of our water? Element of nature.
In contrast, the four union flags placed behind him looked like they had been starched and ironed by a Sandhurst cadet.
Was that his best hour? I would say so. When you think of all the doubters, all the naysayers who ridiculed him that a deal couldn't be made.
But again, like a damn last minute auditor, the Prime Minister had pulled a Christmas miracle out of his pocket.
Say what you like about this shambolic, angry, and unreliable man. Betting against him on big opportunities remains a lousy strategy.
Even so, there was no strut. No cocky victory dance. Instead, he adopted a conciliatory tone. He was lithe, diplomatic.
Not an easy task in view of the unsuitable fish swatter he received two weeks ago at dinner from the EU court boss Ursula von der Leyen.
Boris admitted that our relationship with Europe had often been "fragile and difficult". Not & # 39; arf! But we were "culturally, emotionally and strategically" connected.
To our former European brothers, he insisted, "We will be your friend, your ally, your supporter."
Is that how you saw things in Brussels? During the briefing on Christmas Eve, the mood over there was certainly stronger, if not entirely gloomy.
Frau von der Leyen gave a dignified speech in which she expressed no joy, only relief. "Farewell is so sweet," she said ruefully. Nobel.
One cannot imagine her thirsty predecessor, Jean-Claude Juncker, being so graceful.
Next to her stood her chief negotiator Michel Barnier, the ultimate EU bureaucrat, who shuffled lonely like someone whose girlfriend had given him the momentum on New Year's Eve.
But for Boris this was his crowning moment.
When he concluded his speech at No. 10 on Thursday, he told us he had resolved the issue that had "bothered British politics for years".
Now it was up to us to “recognize the immensity of this moment and make the most of it”. He couldn't resist attacking us lizards in the media.
"That is the good news from Brussels – now to the sprouts!" he was joking. "Um, excuse the press."
Ho ho ho Given the kicks he's taken from us this year, I think we can wear this on our chins.
Someone asked how Sir Keir Starmer should vote when the deal goes to Parliament next week.
"Of course he should vote for this excellent offer!" Boris chuckled and grinned again.
They felt he was looking forward to this meeting when Parliament meets next week.
And then, as had been hoped, he went to a glass of something cold and crispy and possibly very dry from the Downing Street refrigerator.
As soon as the prime minister left, these Remainiac woodpeckers were already looking for holes in the deal.
Nicola Sturgeon resigned to tie her goose and call for another independence referendum.
In the meantime, Nigel Farage was sucking on his gums, insisting that he could have got a better result.
But for most of the country, you suspect the general feeling was a relief. Brexit is over. Alleluia!
ALEX BRUMMER: Resilient City can get back on its feet, although it has to sink or float in the Brexit deal
The UK's status as the fifth largest economy in the world will remain intact for the next year despite the shock caused by the pandemic and the exit from the European Union.
At the same time, the UK will stay close to the top of the global growth league through 2035, opening a huge gap with France as the country's tech sector grows.
These are the latest long-term forecasts from the Center for Economic and Business Research (CEBR). Under Boris Johnson's historic trade deal, they were supposed to help ease the UK's economic outlook after a year of lockdown to fight the coronavirus.
Die Beweise deuten darauf hin, dass die Widerstandsfähigkeit Großbritanniens durchscheint und die Produktion, die Arbeitsplätze und das Haushaltseinkommen wieder steigen sollten, wenn der Impfstoff in Betrieb genommen wird und die durch die Pandemie angesammelten Einsparungen wieder in Ausgaben und Investitionen fließen. "Die Leute vergessen oft, dass der größte Wirtschaftssektor Großbritanniens digital und kreativ ist", sagte Douglas McWilliams, stellvertretender Vorsitzender der CEBR.
'Wir haben einen enormen Wettbewerbsvorteil in diesem technologiebasierten Sektor, den die Pandemie vorangetrieben hat. Das meiste davon ist ziemlich Brexit-sicher, vorausgesetzt, Großbritannien zieht weiterhin talentierte Leute an. & # 39;
Der Status Großbritanniens als fünftgrößte Volkswirtschaft der Welt wird trotz des Schocks, der durch die Pandemie und den Austritt aus der Europäischen Union verursacht wurde, im nächsten Jahr intakt bleiben
Die Arbeitslosenquote in Großbritannien – 4,8 Prozent der Erwerbsbevölkerung – ist nach globalen Daten im Vergleich zu EU-Handelspartnern mit 8,4 Prozent ebenfalls sehr günstig.
Die größte Änderung in der CEBR-Prognose besteht darin, wie Großbritannien in den nächsten 15 Jahren mit Ausnahme der viel größeren deutschen Wirtschaft vor den meisten europäischen Ländern rast.
"Die britische Wirtschaft ist trotz des Brexit weiterhin eine der leistungsstärksten in Europa", sagten die Ökonomen der CEBR.
"Bis 2035 wird die Wirtschaft voraussichtlich 23 Prozent größer sein als die des historischen Rivalen und Nachbarn Frankreich." Unter den Prognostikern und Kommentatoren des Privatsektors hat die CEBR seit Anfang dieses Jahres die Auswirkungen der Pandemie genau verfolgt.
Die anfängliche Prognose im März von einem Verlust der Weltproduktion um 4 Prozent oder 4,6 Billionen Pfund Sterling wurde weitgehend durch die offiziellen Daten bestätigt. Es prognostiziert nun eine robuste Erholung für die ganze Welt mit einem Wachstum von 5,3 Prozent im Jahr 2021.
Gleichzeitig wird Großbritannien bis 2035 nahe an der Spitze der globalen Wachstumsliga bleiben und eine große Lücke gegenüber Frankreich eröffnen, wenn der Technologiesektor des Landes ansteigt. Im Bild: Boris Johnson trifft die Präsidentin der Europäischen Kommission, Ursula von der Leyen
Herr McWilliams sagte: „Wir glauben, dass sich die Weltwirtschaft bei Einführung des Impfstoffs schnell erholen könnte.
„Meine Kollegen haben in Großbritannien aufgrund der Pandemie, die darauf wartet, ausgegeben zu werden, Einsparungen in Höhe von etwa 200 Milliarden Pfund berechnet. An anderer Stelle wird es ähnliche Einsparungen geben.
"Wir sind eher besorgt darüber, dass ein schneller Aufschwung zu einer Inflation führen wird, wobei Engpässe die Preise in die Höhe treiben."
Andy Haldane, Chefökonom der Bank of England, warnte diese Woche, dass Großbritannien einen "Laserfokus" auf die Inflation benötige, um die Kosten für die Bedienung seines außer Kontrolle geratenen Schuldenberges in Höhe von 2 Billionen Pfund zu stoppen.
"Das Letzte, was Großbritannien im Moment braucht, ist eine böse Inflationsüberraschung", fügte er hinzu.
Die neuesten Daten zu den Verbraucherpreisen zeigen keine Anzeichen für ein Problem mit einem Anstieg der Inflation um 0,3 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorjahr.
Die Pläne Großbritanniens, den Schwerpunkt vom EU-Handel zu verlagern und seine Handelsbeziehungen global zu gestalten, scheinen angesichts der sich radikal verändernden Form der internationalen Wirtschaft zeitlich gut abgestimmt zu sein.
Zum Leidwesen derer, die China für die entsetzlichen Auswirkungen des Coronavirus verantwortlich machen, sagen die Prognostiker, China habe "den Sturm besser überstanden als die westlichen Volkswirtschaften" und werde infolgedessen die amerikanische Wirtschaft in Bezug auf die Dollarproduktion im Jahr 2028 überholen – fünf Jahre früher als zuvor erwartet.
Indien fiel 2020 hinter Großbritannien und Frankreich zurück, soll laut CEBR jedoch Großbritannien als fünftgrößte Volkswirtschaft der Welt im Jahr 2024 überholen.
Warum wir "grässlichen Deutschen" den Briten geholfen haben, den Brexit zu erreichen, schreibt der Bild-Kolumnist ALEXANDER VON SCHOENBURG
Nehmen Sie sich ein paar Jahre Zeit und ich gehe davon aus, dass die Briten auf diese unheilige Brexit-Affäre zurückblicken und zwei unwahrscheinliche Faktoren für die Rettung des Tages verantwortlich machen werden: Die Pandemie… und die schrecklichen Deutschen.
Während der Chefunterhändler der EU, Michel Barnier, und sein Landsmann, der französische Präsident Emmanuel Macron, alle dafür waren, dass Sie Briten bestraft haben, indem sie "pour ermutiger les autres" geschlagen haben – das ist jeder andere potenzielle Sezessionist unter den verbleibenden 27 EU-Mitgliedern – Berlin war immer eher geneigt, sich von Freunden zu trennen.
Eine "bewusste Entkopplung" der Sorte Gwyneth Paltrow, wenn Sie so wollen.
Monsieur Barnier war sogar bereit, Großbritannien dazu zu bewegen, sich von den Gesprächen zu entfernen, indem er nur die kleinsten Zugeständnisse machte. Er war überzeugt, dass Sie in ein paar Monaten wieder am Verhandlungstisch sitzen würden, auf den Knien und um einen Deal betteln würden.
Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel, rechts abgebildet mit Ursula von der Leyen, und den finnischen und belgischen Premierministern Sanna Marin und Sophie Wilmes bei einem Treffen in Brüssel im Juli
(Und als starke Abschreckung gegen alle Aussichten auf einen Tschechen, einen Italiener oder einen Polexit – nichts davon wird auf jeden Fall bald passieren, wenn Sie mich fragen.)
In den Machtkorridoren Berlins, insbesondere im Bundeskanzleramt – Angela Merkels Kanzlei – und im Außenministerium war man jedoch der Ansicht, Großbritannien in seiner Stunde der Not zu isolieren – wenn die Situation aufgrund von Covid so schlimm ist sehr unklug.
Dies war nicht auf einen plötzlichen Ausbruch der Sentimentalität in einer Welt zurückzuführen, in der die Realpolitik das Quartier regiert. Die Berechnung war, dass es nicht im besten Interesse Deutschlands ist, eine bereits gefährlich stotternde „Maschine“ in die Luft zu jagen.
Schließlich verlässt sich Deutschland darauf, dass diese Maschine weiterhin auf dem Niveau funktioniert, auf dem sie funktioniert, und Großbritannien ist unser viertgrößter Exportmarkt und der größte Auslandsmarkt unserer Automobilhersteller.
Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz und BMW verkaufen jedes Jahr Hunderttausende von Gasfressern an die Briten.
Ein Versäumnis, eine Einigung zu erzielen, lautete das Denken in Berlin, hätte massive Auswirkungen haben und sogar zu einer Wirtschaftskrise für Europa auf globaler Ebene eskalieren können.
Kurz gesagt, deshalb wurde der Antisezessionist Michel Barnier in der elften Stunde der Gespräche effektiv aus dem Verkehr gezogen.
Es waren Premierminister Boris Johnson und EU-Präsidentin (und eine ehemalige deutsche Ministerin) Ursula von der Leyen, die es auf sich nahmen, den Stau zu brechen.
Premierminister Boris Johnson hat im Januar in Berlin vor der Coronavirus-Krise Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel getroffen
Und nach allem, was ich höre, unterhielt sich Frau von der Leyen auch ein oder zwei Mal mit Frau Merkel, ihrer ehemaligen Mentorin.
Es war das nächtliche Telefonat zwischen Johnson und von der Leyen am Dienstag, das das Spiel veränderte.
Denn zu diesem Zeitpunkt einigten sich beide Seiten auf die beiden letzten noch umstrittenen Gebiete (Fangquoten und staatliche Subventionen). Beide erkannten, dass es einfach absurd wäre, ihre Angestellten nicht unter Druck zu setzen, um die letzten winzigen Details herauszufinden.
Einige der euroskeptischen Politiker, Experten und Wahlkampfleiter, die beim Referendum vom Juni 2016 am heftigsten für eine Urlaubsabstimmung gekämpft haben, werden dieses Ergebnis beklagen. Sie werden es nur im Namen einen Brexit nennen. Sie liegen falsch.
Ein Abkommen im norwegischen Stil hätte Großbritannien zu einem Satellitenstaat der EU gemacht, der in regulatorischen Angelegenheiten kein Mitspracherecht hatte. Eine Abkehr von den Bedingungen der Welthandelsorganisation hätte die Preise in einigen Sektoren erhöht und in anderen zu Engpässen geführt.
Was Herr Johnson erreicht hat, ist eine maßgeschneiderte Vereinbarung, die den uneingeschränkten Zugang zu Ihrem wichtigsten Markt ermöglicht und gleichzeitig in der Lage ist, Ihre eigenen Gesetze und Standards zu schreiben – solange Sie fair spielen, wofür britische Händler seit Jahrhunderten bekannt sind .
Es wird einen Mechanismus zur Beilegung von Streitigkeiten geben, der vom Europäischen Gerichtshof unabhängig ist, aber ich vermute, dass dies kaum jemals ins Spiel kommen muss.
Ihr Ministerpräsident hat ein Abkommen erzielt, das geradezu sensationell ist: Rechtlich außerhalb der EU, aber mit vollem wirtschaftlichen Zugang dazu – das sind auch die bestmöglichen Nachrichten für die EU-Mitglieder.
Als Boris Johnson angegriffen wurde, weil er im Binnenmarkt bleiben wollte, aber die Bewegungsfreiheit beendete, antwortete er berühmt mit den Worten: "Meine Politik in Bezug auf Kuchen ist es, sie zu haben und sie zu essen."
Nun, alles was ich sagen kann ist, ich wäre nicht überrascht, wenn – als die Nachricht von dem Deal am Donnerstag bekannt wurde – Comeback Kid von Nr. 10 sich eine große Platte Victoria-Schwamm geholfen hätte.
(tagsToTranslate) Dailymail (t) Nachrichten (t) Boris Johnson (t) Coronavirus (t) Downing Street (t) Frankreich