Boris Johnson is set to give the UK a boost before Christmas by lifting the 10 p.m. curfew in pubs and restaurants.
Sunday's mail assumes the prime minister intends to extend hours to 11 p.m. when the second national lockdown ends on December 2nd. While the last orders are still coming in at 10 p.m., people are given an extra hour to finish drinks and meals.
In addition to helping the hospitality sector, the plan is also expected to be adopted in a crunch cabinet meeting that evening and will prevent crowds from gathering on the streets at the time of departure.
The 10pm curfew has received widespread criticism after its inception in September, and # 10 is determined to show that it can both listen to its back benches and learn lessons when measures are unsuccessful. The proposal has broad support. One minister said: "10 p.m. final orders and being able to stay longer sounds extremely sensible."
Mr Johnson will make a televised address to the House of Commons and the nation on Monday that the lockdown will end on December 2nd as promised.
He will also set out details of a new winter plan to fight Covid, including a revised three-tier structure for restrictions. The new framework will run through spring to add confidence and clarity to businesses and the general public as work continues on vaccine approval and a mass vaccination project.
There is growing confidence that positive results from a study of a vaccine developed by Oxford University and pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca are "imminent". Vaccines made by Pfizer and the US company Moderna have already been shown to be almost 95 percent effective.
A government insider said: "There is a possibility that one day we will wake up soon and Brexit will be over and we will have the Oxford vaccine."
However, it is expected that the revised tier system introduced by Mr. Johnson will bring more areas to the top third level. The final decision as to which areas go to which levels will be made on Thursday.
While almost all stores are allowed to reopen, bookmakers and so-called "wet pubs" that do not sell food may have to remain closed in places with the highest infection rate. There may also be tighter controls on households that mix indoors. "The new Tier 3 will look a lot tighter than the old one," admitted a government source.
However, restrictions on sport will be relaxed while ministers have extensive discussions on how to allow crowds in open-air stadiums. The main sticking point, however, is how to get fans to and from the events without risking public transport infection.
To build confidence, Mr Johnson said in a speech yesterday, "My first message is 'thank you' for what you have done over the past very difficult eight months, my second is that hope is on the horizon."
The developments came as follows:
- There was renewed hope that the second wave of Covid-19 had peaked with 341 new deaths – 121 fewer than last Saturday and only five of them had no underlying health conditions – and the number of infections daily decreased by more than a quarter to 19,875;
- US drug company Novavax hoped a vaccine it is developing could prevent people from infecting each other after successful attempts on monkeys.
- At least 22 people were arrested when anti-lockdown protesters clashed with police at rallies in Bournemouth, London and Liverpool.
- Mr Johnson saw an increase in public opinion polls, with the Tories falling to 41 percent and Labor to 38 percent, according to Optimum. It has been reported that Chancellor Rishi Sunak will come up with a £ 3 billion plan this week to clean up the backlog of operations canceled as a result of the pandemic, as part of a spending review that also aims to provide support for the mental health sector Promote health and revitalize the high street.
- Church leaders appealed to the government to reopen the places of worship for Christmas services.
Ministers yesterday continued talks on whether and how the restrictions could be lifted for Christmas. It is understood that with a four nation truce, all families across the UK will have the same number of days to celebrate with loved ones.
The government is also debating how some pantomimes could be allowed, although the theaters are unlikely to open any larger before next year.
Scientists warned last week that it could take up to five days of hard lockdown to compensate for each day with fewer restrictions over Christmas.
The 10 p.m. curfew was widely criticized when it was introduced in September when crowds gathered outside pubs
In Soho, night owls often gathered in large crowds after the pubs closed, and many hugged and sang in close proximity
# 10 is determined to show that it can both listen to its back benches and learn lessons when actions are unsuccessful
But Mr Johnson and Mr Sunak have stressed the need to return to a "working economy". A source said, "We need to get back to normal."
The ministers are trying to identify measures to increase morale, e.g. B. the possibility of people watching live sports again, or the reopening of cinemas.
"This is an important element to consider," a government source said. "If you allow people to see the latest Bond movie in theaters, it is a big signal that things are back to normal." The renewed optimism has to do with the “transformative” effect that the introduction of a vaccine or vaccines will have.
A source said Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific advisor, had "had a spring in his stride".
Ministers are currently working on plans to maintain restrictions until the end of March, when experts say most of the vaccines can be dispensed. The limitations are checked as the data improves or deteriorates.
Ministers will consider the latest data before finalizing the new tiered arrangements later this week.
The measures are then voted on in parliament. While some Tory MPs have raised concerns that gyms and the beauty industry will be an "afterthought," the Treasury Department is pushing for them to reopen on December 2nd.
A source said: “Companies like gyms and beauty salons are desperate to open and have got Covid safe.
"People want to get their nails done before Christmas – it's a big season for these companies."
However, 70 Conservative MPs have written to the Prime Minister saying that they will not vote in favor of reintroducing the tiered system unless the government justifies any persistent restriction.
Organized by Steve Baker and former Whip Chief Mark Harper, the letter warns that ministers must "publish a full cost-benefit analysis of the proposed restrictions on a regional basis".
A # 10 spokesman said: "All efforts during the current national restrictions have helped bring the virus back under control, slow its spread and ease pressure on the NHS.
"But the prime minister and his scientific advisors are certain the virus is still there – and without regional restrictions, it could quickly spiral out of control again before vaccines and mass tests show any effect."
Big Brother's anger when the government used Twitter as a propaganda tool to attack the mail's coronavirus analysis
- Anger at attack from the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs Twitter
- The post article raised questions about the government's handling of crises
- Extremely inaccurate predictions of the number of potential deaths have been pointed out
- MEPs said "this is what good journalism is about" and "open debate is essential".
- DHSC tried to get the article out of control by calling it "misleading".
By Mark Hookham
Anger rose last night after the Department of Health and Social Affairs Twitter account was used to dismiss a report challenging official scare tactics by analyzing key facts about the coronavirus pandemic.
Headed "Covid: What They Won't Tell You," a two-page article in yesterday's Daily Mail raised several questions about the way the government has dealt with the crisis.
It has been suggested that government predictions about the number of potential deaths from the virus have been extremely inaccurate. In a July report commissioned by Chief Medical Officer Sir Patrick Vallance, scientists predicted that there could be 119,000 deaths if a second wave coincided with a peak of winter flu – but the actual number has so far been found to be less than half .
The article also noted that the number of deaths during this time of year is not far above average and that currently only 31 percent of beds in intensive care units in hospitals are occupied by Covid patients.
Scroll down to read the original article
The Ministry of Health's Twitter attack on the mail: MPs and commentators praised the report, which questions the government's management of the crisis
But last night a post on the department's Twitter account stated, “This article is misleading.
“This is a global pandemic. National restrictions have been put in place to keep people safe and save lives. It is important that people follow the rules and continue to stay home so that we can lower transmission rates and get back to normal. "
Last night, senior Tory MP, Sir Iain Duncan Smith, reprimanded the Department of Health, urging it to continue caring about people's health and stop criticizing newspapers.
The former Tory leader hailed the Daily Mail report as "good journalism" and said it was right to look beneath the official figures, which "ultimately do not help the public understand the nature of the disease".
“The Daily Mail rightly points out the problems with the (official) numbers that are being produced. That is what good journalism is about. Regarding the DoH, I really don't think they should spend their time arguing with newspapers, but rather continue their work to make sure they are ready to help when patients need it. "
He said: “The Daily Mail is correct to highlight the problems with the (official) numbers that are being produced. That is what good journalism is about.
"Regarding the DoH, I really don't think that they should spend their time arguing with newspapers, but rather continue their work to make sure they are ready to help when patients need it."
Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the Tories Backbench Committee in 1922, signaled that it was not the Department of Health's job to quell the debate over how to fight the virus. "Our British tradition is for people to tell the government what to do, not the other way around," he said. "It is important that we have an open national debate on how best to fight Covid-19 and everyone should be free to contribute."
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Health came under fire on Twitter itself last night. Former English footballer Matt le Tissier wrote: "A tweet that sounds a little desperate".
ITV's Loose Women’s Carol McGiffin tweeted, “How? I agree? No, it's not a global pandemic. It has nothing to do with protecting people and saving lives at all, and you know it? !!!
Allison Pearson, columnist for the Daily Telegraph, commented, “Is this a parody? I'm afraid it's the actual Department of Health … "And Talk Radio host Mike Graham said," Why is it misleading? Are the hospital beds and death rates wrong? Aren't the SAGE predictions FALSE? "
ITV's Loose Women’s Carol McGiffin condemned the government post
Allison Pearson, columnist for the Daily Telegraph, commented, “Is this a parody? I'm afraid it's the Ministry of Health proper
Other anonymous tweets said, “They really think we're stupid. Why don't they state exactly which parts are not true?” And “How desperate is this government department to attack a newspaper.”
In June, the UK's head of statistics accused the government of continuing to mislead the public about the number of tests being done for Covid-19.
And earlier this month, Economy Minister Nadhim Zahawi promised that the government "will listen very carefully … and make sure we respond appropriately" after the statistics agency identified the danger that if it did not, confidence in official figures could be undermined Timely and transparent provision of information would be "supported".
The criticism followed the presentation of data at a press conference at which the Prime Minister announced that England would be banned.
The main features of many of the models presented at the press conference were not posted on the government website so no one could see how they were created.
"This is what good journalism is all about"
What they DO NOT tell you about Covid: Fewer beds than last year, deaths a fraction of the dire predictions, 95% of deaths had underlying causes … and how the facts can be twisted to stir fear in our hearts
- Despite the scare tactics, the number of deaths from Covid-19 is significantly lower than the April peak
- The latest ONS estimate shows that new infections have already flattened out in the week leading up to November 14th
- GCHQ embedded a team in Downing Street to provide real-time updates on Covid-19 to Boris Johnson
- Analysts will sift through large amounts of data to ensure Boris Johnson has the most up-to-date information
Given the health of the country, it was announced this week that GCHQ has embedded a team on Downing Street to provide real-time updates to Boris Johnson on the response to the "emerging and changing threat" posed by Covid-19.
The intelligence analysts will search huge amounts of data to make sure the Prime Minister has the most up-to-date information on the spread of the virus.
But what exactly was Mr. Johnson supposed to be looking for? Here ROSS CLARK reveals what to ask …
How accurate were the government's dire predictions?
The short answer is: not very much. In a July report commissioned by scientific advisor Sir Patrick Vallance, scientists estimated that there could be 119,000 deaths if a second surge coincided with a peak of winter flu. Yesterday that number was 54,286 – less than half that.
In fact, the second peak seems to have passed – there were an average of 22,287 new infections per day for the past week, compared to 24,430 the week before.
In mid-September, Sir Patrick made the horrific claim that the UK could experience 50,000 new cases of coronavirus every day by mid-October unless more draconian restrictions were put in place. Still, we never got close to that number.
What about his prophecies of death?
The same goes for. His warnings simply have no relation to reality.
During the Halloween Horror Show press conference that Sir Patrick and Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty used to scare the government into implementing a second lockdown, one of their slides suggested that the daily deaths from Covid-19 would be 4,000 per day by December a day.
Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty, pictured on October 31, when the second national lockdown was announced, had shown a slide that predicted up to 4,000 deaths per day through December. But in ten days we'll still be less than 15 percent of that number
In ten days, we'll still be less than 15 percent of that number. As the graph above shows, the current mortality rate is well below almost any modeled winter scenario.
Are the hospitals almost full?
The answer is "no" – contrary to what you think government experts had after posting a chart last month that looked like hospitals were almost overcrowded when at least half weren't a single Covid-19 patient would have.
Currently, only 13 percent of NHS beds are occupied by patients with Covid-19.
As of Monday this week, 16,271 hospital beds across the UK were filled with patients who had tested positive for Covid-19.
As of Monday this week, 16,271 hospital beds across the UK were filled with patients who tested positive for Covid-19. This is a steady increase from last Monday when there were 14,279 Covid patients. Notably, the number of beds currently occupied by the NHS England is below the previous year's average
This showed a steady increase from the previous Monday when there were 14,279 patients with Covid.
To put that number in perspective, the NHS had 101,255 general and acute beds in England as of March this year, as well as 15,392 in Scotland and 10,563 in Wales.
How is it compared to last year?
Remarkably, the number of beds currently occupied by NHS England is below the previous year's average, as the graph shows.
On November 5th, the last available date, there were actually 1,293 fewer patients in hospital beds than in November of the previous year.
Are intensive care beds sure full?
Some hospitals are under pressure, but that's not the case everywhere, as the graph above shows. On Wednesday 1,430 people with Covid-19 occupied beds with mechanical ventilation.
Despite fanares surrounding the construction of the Nightingale Hospitals (like Sunderlands pictured on the opening day in May), they were never more than 1.23 percent full
Given that there were 4,119 ICU beds in England before the crisis, as well as 269 in Scotland and 153 in Wales, only around 31 percent of ICU beds are currently occupied by patients with Covid – excluding the beds that were recently converted from normal beds.
In fact, the number of critical beds occupied on November 8 was actually below the five-year average for 2015-19.
Even at the height of the first wave in spring, the proportion of mechanical ventilation beds used in existing NHS hospitals never exceeded 62 percent, according to a study by University College London.
But wasn't that because of the Nightingale hospitals?
Not at all. Despite all the fanfare surrounding the rapid construction of the Nightingale hospitals, they were never more than 1.23 percent full.
In addition, doctors are now much better prepared to treat Covid-19, for example when they know when and when patients do not need ventilation.
So who is killing Covid-19?
Put simply, the victims are predominantly elderly and people with pre-existing medical conditions.
Of the 37,470 Covid-19 deaths recorded by NHS England as of November 18, 53.7 percent were people over the age of 80.
In comparison, there were only 275 deaths in people under 40 (just 0.7 percent of the total).
And crucially, those who have died from Covid-19 are overwhelmingly likely to have suffered from a pre-existing illness.
Of those who died from coronavirus, 35,806 people (95.6 percent of the total) had at least one pre-existing serious illness.
In fact, there have only been 42 deaths in people under 40 without a pre-existing condition.
What counts as pre-existing conditions?
While there has been much debate about how a person's lifestyle – such as their weight or general respiratory disease – makes them more prone to Covid-19, the truth is that those who die from pre-existing conditions tend to have serious debilitating diseases .
27 percent of them had diabetes while 18 percent had dementia – both of which make a person extremely susceptible to any viral infection.
Are more dying now than in the first wave?
No. The number of Covid-19 deaths is significantly lower than the April peak, as the graph above shows. For example, on April 21 there were 1,224 Covid-19 deaths and a daily average for the week of 838. 511 new deaths were reported yesterday.
Are you dying more than last year?
Regardless of what the scare mongers want you to do, deaths this time of year are not far above average, as the graph above shows.
Yes, for the week ending November 6, total deaths in England and Wales were 11,812 – 14.3 percent or 1,481 more than the five-year average.
However, this hides the fact that unlike the spring when deaths from non-Covid-19 causes were above average, non-Covid-19 deaths in recent weeks have actually been significantly below average.
Surely more elderly people die than normal?
It doesn't look like it. According to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – for October 2020 – the average death rate among those over 75, despite all deaths from Covid-19 this year, was significantly lower than last October – 6,901.7 per 100,000 people , compared to 7141.7 for the last year.
But isn't the infection rate increasing now?
The latest ONS estimate shows that new infections have flattened out by the week leading up to November 14: one in 80 people in England had the disease this week, compared to one in 85 the week before.
And it could go down now: According to a study published this week by Cambridge University scientists – whose data is used by the Sage government advisory group – infection rates of Covid-19 have actually stopped rising across England.
The Government's Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE) said the reproductive rate "R" – the average number of people to whom each Covid-19 patient passes the disease – from a maximum of 1.2 in the last week to a slight maximum 1.1 has decreased. and could be just 1.0 or less in any region of the UK
In fact, they claim the R-rate – the average number of people infected with the virus by someone – has dropped to one.
If the number is below one, the epidemic subsides; over one and it grows; and if it is one, the infection rates stay the same.
Couldn't that just be an anomaly?
In fact, for the R-rate, this figure is consistent with a number of other studies.
The latest government estimate – derived from Imperial College London's REACT study which wiped tens of thousands of people every week – suggests that the R-number for England as a whole is currently between 1 and 1.2.
In the Covid-19 symptom study by King & # 39; s College London, the R number is even 0.9 – the lowest level since August.
Whatever the truth, data released yesterday by the ONS confirmed that infection rates are flattening out in England and Scotland.
Does it matter if older people are more likely to be infected?
Such is the claim made by critics of the Great Barrington Declaration, which in October urged governments to lift a uniform lockdown in favor of targeted shielding who believe the current wave of infections will break through to older people.
The latest ONS estimate shows that new infections have flattened out in the week leading up to November 14th. Cambridge University scientists believe the national R-number has fallen to one, meaning the country's infection rate will remain the same
However, the rate of infection is highest among school-age children and students – the least at risk of the population – and lowest among those over 70.
In the week leading up to November 14th, the infection rate among secondary school students was 2.03 percent, while it was only 0.48 percent and declined among those over 70.
What about the areas that have a spike?
There are certainly regional differences in infection rates – the values are generally higher in the north than in the south.
One of the reasons the numbers may seem particularly noticeable is because the government is embarrassed that the same numbers were based on a data error in the fall that caused infections among students at their parents' address – mostly in the south.
At the height of the problem, one in eight cases was reported to the wrong local authority in September and October.
Doesn't mass testing fix this??
Don't bet on it. The government has put great faith in Operation Moonshot – their plan to test the entire population once a week using "lateral flow tests," a type of Covid-19 test that gives results in just an hour.
However, their speed comes at a cost: they are not very reliable.
According to a recent study by Oxford University and Public Health England's Porton Down Laboratory, the LFT used in the pilot across Liverpool managed to detect Covid-19 in only 79.2 percent of cases, even when performed by laboratory staff.
Is it really that bad?
Just wait When used by trained community health professionals, the detection rate dropped to 73 percent, and when used by self-trained members of the public, the detection rate dropped to only 58 percent.
In a way, the false positives were worse.
Overall, 0.32 percent of people who took the tests were falsely told they had the virus.
If the entire population were forced to do the tests, it could mean 200,000 – a city the size of Portsmouth – will be instructed to self-isolate if they don't actually have the disease.
(tagsToTranslate) Dailymail (t) Nachrichten (t) Boris Johnson (t) Coronavirus Lockdowns