Boris Johnson raised the prospect of an Army patrol in England today to enforce coronavirus rules as he unveiled a wave of new measures designed to stop the spread of the disease.
The Prime Minister said the police will now have the "option to seek military assistance if necessary" as he announced that fines for violating the rule of six will be doubled to £ 200.
Mr Johnson is putting a 10 p.m. curfew on all restaurants, bars and pubs across the country from Thursday, with the hospitality sector also limited to table service only.
The requirement to wear face covering is expanded to include retail workers and customers indoors, except when they are sitting at a table to eat or drink.
Mr Johnson announced the end of the government's return to work when he said he was now urging "office workers who can work from home".
The government has actively encouraged workers to work from home and today's U-turn marks a humiliating rise for the prime minister, who told his cabinet this earlier this month "People in our country are returning to the office in large numbers, and quite rightly."
The decision to push workers to work from home is likely to trigger dire warnings about the future of the fighting city and city centers.
Mr Johnson said the UK was at a "dangerous turning point" when he warned the new restrictions could "maybe stay in place for six months".
The prime minister also said he reserves the right to use greater firepower if the new plans don't get the disease under control.
Plans for a partial return of sports fans to the stadiums from October 1 have also been "halted" while the number of people allowed to attend weddings is reduced to 15.
Despite the Prime Minister's new measures, concerns are growing that the government may soon impose stricter restrictions on socialization, even beyond the current rule of six. That could mean a ban on mixing households.
Some experts have already warned the curfew is not going far enough after senior scientific advisor Sir Patrick Vallance said yesterday that the UK could suffer 50,000 cases a day through mid-October and more than 200 deaths a day through November, provided Britain goes its course does not change.
Calum Semple, professor of child health and outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool and member of the government's scientific advisory group on emergencies (Sage), said there were "several areas of society that unfortunately need to increase their restrictions".
The 10pm curfew in the hospitality industry sparked an immediate backlash in the industry as the UKHospitality group said it was "another major blow" while Tory MPs warned there could be no further "major lockdown" .
It was alleged overnight that Mr Johnson had initially advocated a full shutdown of the hospitality and leisure sectors before Chancellor Rishi Sunak persuaded him to adopt a less stringent course after warning of economic slaughter.
Boris Johnson announced today that pubs and restaurants in England will be closed from 10pm on Thursday
Michael Gove confirmed today that the government is getting rid of its back to work when he said people who can work from home should do so now
The decision to return to work is a detrimental moment for Mr Johnson, who has actively encouraged workers to return to their offices. A London Underground is pictured this morning
Mr Johnson returned to Downing Street after the Cabinet meeting, stepping onto number 10 alongside Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance, who yesterday painted a bleak picture of what could happen if Britain fails to get the coronavirus under control
The five days of panic that paved the way for Boris Johnson to curfew on pubs
Thursday: The latest official data presented to ministers showed that coronavirus cases were increasing in all age groups, while hospital admissions increased across the board. The numbers are said to have prompted Michael Gove to call for decisive action. By the end of the day, a "consensus" had reportedly emerged on a plan for a complete shutdown of the hospitality and leisure sectors, with Mr Gove and Health Secretary Matt Hancock being the leading supporters. Advisors to the Emergency Scientific Advisory Group also backed the plans on the grounds that it would not be possible to predict the effects of a less stringent curfew on pubs, bars and restaurants. Mr Johnson was reportedly initially in favor of a full shutdown.
Friday: The prospect of a complete shutdown terrified ministers and officials from the Treasury and the Ministry of Economy, Energy and Industrial Strategy, who feared the damage such a move would do to the economy. Chancellor Rishi Sunak is said to have asked the Prime Minister and the couple to meet on Friday afternoon. Mr Sunak has personally voiced his concerns and Mr Johnson appears to have agreed with the Chancellor’s message and asked officials to consider other options.
Saturdays and Sundays: Mr Johnson held further discussions with senior ministers, as well as Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance and Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty, as the Prime Minister tried to find an agreed path forward. Mr Johnson eventually decided to implement a curfew rather than a full shutdown as the "hawks" in the cabinet seemed to be winning the battle with the "pigeons".
Monday: The Prime Minister's latest lockdown plans were formally adopted by senior ministers ahead of an official announcement today.
The government's latest coronavirus crackdown was revealed as follows:
- Sir Keir Starmer used his first speech at the Labor Conference as Chair to warn that a second national lockdown would be a "sign of government failure and not a force majeure" that would take an "immense toll" on public health and the economy would mean.
- Sir Keir also alleged that the government's "incompetence" was "holding the UK back" and that Conservatives "underfunding of the NHS" and "abandonment of welfare" had kept Britain unprepared for the pandemic.
- Julian Knight, Tory chairman of the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) selection board, said without a "route map" to bring viewers back to sporting events, "we risk decimating our sporting and cultural infrastructure."
- Shares in some of the UK's biggest pub chains felt the crisis following the 10pm curfew announcement, when City Pub Group fell 6.6 percent while Wetherspoons fell 0.4 percent.
- Welsh Health Minister Vaughan Gething welcomed the UK Government's decision to return to home work as "a welcome postponement … which is in line with our position".
- Tory peer Andrew Lloyd Webber warned that commercial theater will not survive unless the government "steps on the table".
- Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the rise in coronavirus cases is "extremely difficult news for all of us and the whole country" as the bank "will do everything it can to help the businesses and the people of the country to support & # 39 ;.
Confirming the relocation of work from home this morning, Mr Gove told Sky News, “There will be a shift in emphasis and one of the things that we will highlight is when people can be from home to work then we would encourage them to do so.
“Now it's important to emphasize that there are many, many, many roles that cannot be performed from home.
“There are people in manufacturing, construction, retail, and other roles that we see that this is simply impossible. That is why we have been committed to ensuring that you have Covid-safe jobs and of course we have to balance the need to ensure that people can continue to work and actually continue to go to school critically and to benefit from education without any reduction measures of the virus, which is why we can limit or appropriately limit social contact, we try to do so. & # 39;
He also said plans for a partial return of sports fans to the stadiums from October 1 have been "paused".
"It is the case that we have piloted some open air venues and we would like to be able, in due course, to allow people to return to football and other sporting events," he told BBC Breakfast.
"But the thing is, we just have to be careful right now, and I think a mass opening at this stage would not be appropriate."
He added, “It was the case that we were watching a staged program with more people returning – it wouldn't be the case that we would have stadiums with fans.
“We're looking at how we can halt this program for now. But we want to make sure that (if) circumstances allow, (we) get more people back. & # 39;
Mr. Gove couldn't say how long the government's new coronavirus measures are expected to last.
"We hope that we can take appropriate steps now. If we can fight back the virus, we can gradually relax it in the future," he told BBC Breakfast.
Boris Johnson's 10pm curfew is "not enough," the SAGE advisor claims
Boris Johnson's 10 p.m. curfew for all pubs, bars and restaurants will not be enough to contain the spread of the coronavirus, one of the government's scientific advisors warned today.
University of Liverpool professor Calum Semple and member of SAGE said measures must "go further" to halt the UK's fast-growing outbreak.
And he said tighter restrictions are likely required on the hospitality industry, which hit back on the curfew today calling it "another crushing blow".
Professor Semple said, "In time it will probably have to go further than a curfew and a 10pm table service." He also warned that ministers might need to consider reducing household mixing.
He said new measures could include keeping people on BBC Radio 4's Today program out of the office just minutes before Michael Gove confirmed the government is letting go of its back to work.
And Professor Semple added, “I think the rule of six has been tried, it hasn't been time to interfere, but based on the numbers I see it doesn't go far enough.
“The epidemiologists and scientists I work with, and I'm not just talking about the one on SAGE, I'd say there's barely a thickness of cigarette paper between what we think about it.
& # 39; The time to act is now, we are in a serious situation and the rising numbers follow the current worst-case scenario.
He explained the situation at his local hospital in Wirral, Liverpool, warning that there were already several cases in the intensive care unit.
"We're seeing an increase in hospital admissions," he said. “I can tell you that our hospital on the Wirral has several cases in the intensive care unit.
“A study I did looking at hospital cases in England, Scotland and Wales shows a rapid increase in case admissions and, interestingly, we are actually seeing an increase in people between the ages of 20 and 40, especially women we have not seen before.
"And that suggests there's community exposure in hospitality and care facilities that we haven't seen before, likely because people under 50 are less invested in social distancing."
"But what I can't do is predict with absolute certainty."
When asked if it would be months or weeks, Mr Gove said, "It is, as Professor Vallance and Chris Whitty pointed out yesterday, that we will have a challenge in the next six months."
Mr Gove insisted that the government take "reluctant steps" with the new coronavirus measures, but added that they were "absolutely necessary".
"There will be more details that the prime minister will set out and one of the points that he will make is that nobody wants to do these things, nobody wants to take these steps," he told Sky News.
“The steps we are taking are reluctant, but they are absolutely necessary.
"Because, as we were reminded yesterday, and as you reported, the infection rate is increasing, the number of people going to the hospital is increasing and we must therefore act."
He insisted that there is evidence to support the government's decision to set the curfew on pubs and restaurants at 10 p.m.
He told the BBC: “There is evidence that the longer venues stay open, the more social mixing there is.
"Setting such a restriction is something we have already done in parts of the country where the virus has spread particularly quickly."
It was alleged overnight that Mr. Gove and Secretary of Health Matt Hancock pushed for a complete shutdown of the hospitality industry.
The Times reported a "consensus" formed over the move last Thursday with members of Sage who were also on board, on the grounds that it would be impossible to predict the effects of a curfew.
The Prime Minister is said to have initially endorsed the shutdown plan, which raised concerns within the Treasury and the Department of Economic Affairs, Energy and Industrial Strategy and asked Mr. Sunak to request a meeting with Mr. Johnson.
That meeting took place on Friday as Mr Sunak warned of the economic damage a full hospitality shutdown could cause, causing Mr Johnson to change his mind and instead promote the less stringent curfews.
The new restrictions caused trouble in the hospitality industry. Kate Nicholls, UKHospitality General Manager, described it as "another devastating blow" to many companies.
"A hard graduation time is bad for business and bad for fighting the virus. We need to give people time to disperse over time," she said.
“Since the reopening, table service is widespread in some parts of the sector, but not required in all areas of business such as coffee shops.
"It's hard to understand how these measures are the answer to the disease when government data shows that only 5% of infections outside the home are hospitality-related."
Official Downing Street slides showed that if the infection rate continued, there could be 50,000 coronavirus cases a day through mid-October, which could result in more than 200 deaths a day by mid-November
Thirty-two academics urge Boris Johnson to think twice about putting Britain into a second lockdown – as questions continue to arise about advisors' doomsday numbers
A group of scientists and doctors have written to the prime minister asking him not to opt for a second lockdown and to stop presenting Covid-19 as a deadly threat.
Thirty-two top scientists have urged Boris Johnson and his scientific and medical advisors to avoid jerky responses to rising cases and hospital stays.
They said the coronavirus debate was "not helpful" as it was split between people who want total bans and people who want no restrictions at all.
The researchers urged decision makers to take a step back and think carefully about what to do next. They said there was still no "easily observable pattern" between strict rules on social distancing and the number of people dying from coronavirus.
The open letter was written by Oxford's Professor Sunetra Gupta and Professor Carl Heneghan, Professor Karol Sikora of Buckingham University, and Sam Williams, director of the consulting firm Economic Insight.
Cancer doctor Professor Sikora tweeted a copy of the letter today, pleading, "We urgently need a rethink to find a better balance."
It has been heavily criticized by experts from the government's leading scientists after presenting a "doomsday" scenario of 50,000 daily coronavirus cases within a month – which was apparently not supported by data from France and Spain.
Michael Kill, executive director of the Night-Time Industries Association, warned the measures could spark a spate of unregulated events and house parties that are the real sources of infection attended by frustrated young people denied access to a safe and legitimate night has been. Time hospitality places & # 39 ;.
The measures also sparked a backlash from the Tory, with senior Conservative MP Sir Bernard Jenkin calling it a "terrible blow".
He told BBC Radio 4's Today program: “The people who run pubs, own pubs, are in a terrible strain.
"And the lifeline of loans and grants has kept these people almost afloat, and this is going to be a terrible blow for them."
He added, “What would be the worst case scenario would be if we had to have another major lockdown. That would be terrible for the economy.
“Anything that can avoid or reduce this risk appears to be justified.
He said parliament had to debate and vote on the government's proposed measures after his Tory colleagues yesterday accused Mr Johnson of "decreeing".
There are already fears that the government will have to impose further draconian restrictions in the coming weeks and months.
Professor Semple was asked on BBC Radio 4's Today program if he believed the 10 p.m. pubs and bars curfew would be enough to stop the spread of infection.
He replied: & # 39; No, that won't be. There are some areas of society where its restrictions unfortunately need to be tightened, but it is necessary now as cases are increasingly emerging not only in the frail elderly but also in those under 50. "
When asked what else could be clamped down soon, the Sage advisor said, “We will potentially have to watch fewer sporting events and that will hit many of us hard because we enjoy soccer, boxing and other activities, especially in the North West of England.
"We'll likely see increased restrictions in the hospitality industry as time goes on. I think that curfew and table service probably only need to go through 10 am. I think that's very likely."
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said today the spike in Covid-19 cases is "extremely difficult news for all of us," but the bank stands ready to take steps to protect businesses where possible is.
Only five percent of Covid infections are passed on in pubs and restaurants
Ministers have been warned that a 10 p.m. curfew in pubs and restaurants will be the final nail in the coffin for many businesses still on the water after the first wave of Covid-19.
Disgruntled hospitality bosses fear that they will bear the brunt of Boris Johnson's crackdown on coronavirus when government figures show comparatively low spread of the disease in food and beverage stores.
Data from Public Health England shows that of the 729 outbreaks in the week ending September 13, only five percent occurred in grocery stores such as restaurants and pubs – 45 percent in nursing homes, 21 percent in schools, and 18 percent in places of work.
Tim Martin, founder of Wetherspoons, said: “The curfew doesn't last a smart person for even five minutes because if you look at the statistics, there are relatively few transmissions of infections in pubs.
Kate Nicholls, executive director of the UK Hospitality trade association, urged the government to heed its own statistics as the curfew could add a sledgehammer to the industry already on its knees.
She said this morning, "People will think it's not that significant, but it's going to have a really big economic impact on jobs, not just pubs but cafes and restaurants as well."
FTSE 100 is seeing some losses following its £ 51bn plunge yesterday. Markets opened 0.3% and rose 38 points to 5,820 after a 10 p.m. curfew was announced for pubs and restaurants
The FTSE 100 scratched its way back this morning after its worst sell-off since June when more than £ 50 billion wiped out the value of UK blue chip companies.
The index was in the green at 0.3 percent when it opened today – up 38 points to 5,821 – one day after plummeting £ 51 billion amid a market trend in Europe and America driven by a surge in Covid infections was caused.
Pub chains and airlines were pounded as ministers warned of new rules limiting social exposure while bank stocks gave way on new calls for money laundering.
Meanwhile, the pound hit a two-month low against the dollar today, ahead of the restrictions.
The pound sterling fell 0.51 percent against the dollar to $ 1.2751, its lowest level since July 24, while the pound fell 0.25 percent against the European common currency at 92 pence.
Speaking at a UK Chambers of Commerce (BCC) webinar, Bailey said, “The latest news that we are seeing a very unfortunate and accelerated return of Covid-19 is extremely difficult news for all of us and for the whole country.
& # 39; That amplifies the downside risks we have in our forecasts.
"The Bank of England will do everything in our power to support the businesses and the people of this country and we will."
Elsewhere, Sir Keir Starmer said a second national lockdown was "a sign of government failure, not an act of God" that would take an "immense toll" on public health and the economy.
Sir Keir used his first speech at the Labor Party conference as chairman to argue that "nothing about a second lockdown should be inevitable".
Speaking of Doncaster, he told the virtual convention: “Yesterday's warnings from government advisors were strong. They cannot be ignored.
“The work will act in the national interest. We will be a constructive opposition. We will support all reasonable steps necessary to save lives and protect our NHS.
“But I would also like to say the following: There shouldn't be anything inevitable about a second lockdown.
& # 39; It would be a sign of government failure, not an act of God. This would place an immense strain on people's physical and mental health and on the economy. We need national efforts to prevent national lockdown. & # 39;
Sir Keir also claimed that the government's "incompetence" was "holding Britain back".
He said: “I think Britain has so much to achieve. And it annoys me that this government is holding us back.
“I tried to be constructive. I guess these are unprecedented times and that governing is difficult. I tried to be fair to give the government the benefit of the doubt.
“But now, with one of the highest mortality rates in the world and on the verge of one of the deepest recessions ever, there is definitely no doubt about it.
"The incompetence of this government is holding Britain back."
The Prime Minister's announcement of new measures by the Prime Minister comes after the government's top two academics paint a bleak picture of what could happen if the UK fails to get the coronavirus under control.
Sir Patrick said yesterday that there could be 50,000 new daily cases by October and more than 200 daily deaths by November – numbers that angered some scientific critics who claimed it was way too negative.
Alongside Professor Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, Sir Patrick said the "vast majority of the population are still vulnerable to coronavirus" and that the current situation requires swift action to reduce the number of cases.
Prof. Whitty suggested that reducing social contact was a key to containing the spread, but acknowledged that a balance had to be struck to protect the economy.
"Ministers who make decisions – and society as a whole – have to find this very difficult balance," he said.
“If we do too little, this virus will spiral out of control and result in a significant number of direct and indirect deaths.
“However, if we go too far in the other direction, we can damage the economy, which can affect unemployment, poverty and disadvantage. All of these have long-term health effects. So we have to keep these two sides in mind. & # 39;
He suggested that science would "ride to our rescue" at some point, but "in this time of the next six months, I think we must realize that we must collectively take this very seriously."
The four UK chief medical officers recommended raising the Covid alert level from three to four – the second highest – last night, suggesting the epidemic is in general circulation. Transmission is high or increasing exponentially.
Where did Prof Gloom and Dr. Doom THIS chart? French and Spanish figures suggest infections could be just ONE FIFTH of the counselors' dire predictions of 50,000 a day
By Sophie Borland for The Daily Mail and Vanessa Chalmers Health Reporter for MailOnline
Scientists have questioned whether the UK is likely to see 50,000 new infections per day by next month, as predicted by the government's scientific adviser.
Sir Patrick Vallance said yesterday that he believes the epidemic is doubling every seven days, claiming that new cases could grow exponentially to 50,000 a day within a month if "nothing is done". He said it could result in 200 deaths a day by mid-November.
The Principal Scientific Advisor emphasized that there are many unknowns behind these projections based on models that have not been publicly made available to other scientists for review.
Sir Vallance said, “If, and that's a pretty big if, but if this goes on unabated and this grows and doubles every seven days … if this goes on you would have about 50,000 cases a day by mid-October. & # 39;
However, scientists have indicated that the reality is that significant measures are being taken to contain the spread of the coronavirus, including social distancing, hand washing and wearing face masks. So once we get to mid-October, the projections will be compared to & # 39; bleak & # 39; appearance.
Sir Patrick stated that the surge in cases in the UK was in close line with trends in France and Spain and referred to a graph to illustrate this.
If the UK followed the trends in these two countries, cases would be 10,000 a day by next month. However, if, as suggested, cases rose to 50,000 a day by next month, they would be six and three times higher, respectively, compared to France and Spain.
One scientist said these figures, presented to the nation, could warrant an investigation by the Bureau of Statistics Regulations, which govern the statistics made available to the public.
Critics accused number 10 of trying to "scare" people in front of Boris Johnson's grand revelation of stricter Covid control guidelines because it represented the "worst case scenario".
Only three countries in the world – India, United States, and Brazil – have ever reported more than 50,000 new cases per day. Scientists predict that more than 100,000 Britons were newly infected every day during the height of the crisis – which has not been proven due to a lack of tests.
However, this was the time when the coronavirus could spread uncontrollably. The situation is now very different from March and April.
Sir Patrick Vallance said yesterday that he believes the epidemic is doubling every seven days, which would result in 200 deaths a day by mid-November. But numbers cast doubt on some of his calculations
Professor David Paton, an industrial economist at the University of Nottingham, hit the forecast of 50,000 a day.
He wrote on Twitter last night: “It's hard not to be shocked anymore, but I find it hard to believe that @CMO_England (Professor Whitty) and @uksciencechief (Sir Patrick) presented such data. Given the severe political implications, I wonder if there is any reason to intervene @StatsRegulation (the Statistical Regulation Office). & # 39;
He noted that in France and Spain, which the UK has been compared to, cases double every three weeks rather than every one week.
If Britain follows the same path as France and Spain, Britain would be closer to 7,000 to 8,000 a day by mid-October than a staggering 50,000.
He said the 50,000 a day would be at least three times the rate currently in Spain or France.
Professor Paton told MailOnline, “It seems like a very strange scenario that, as far as I can tell, is not based on any particular modeling.
"If you look at the past few days, cases have been going down rather than up. This does not seem to be a basis for choosing this" every seven days "doubling.
“It (also) seems strange to me to decide to compare it with France and Spain. There are other countries they could have looked at where cases have doubled every three weeks. Nobody knows what will happen to cases in the UK.
"Do you really think we have five to six times more cases than France?"
Sir Patrick made the warning based on the epidemic's current doubling time of eight days, according to Imperial College London's official REACT study earlier this month, which looked at the results of mass tests through September 7th.
And the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which tracks the spread of the disease through random swab tests, says the number of cases in England nearly doubled between September 3 and 10, increasing from 3,200 new infections per day to 6,000 is.
However, it took two weeks for the official number of cases found in positive tests to double – from a daily average of 1,812 on Sunday September 6th to 3,679 yesterday, September 20th.
Another point of contention concerns the rate of growth of the virus, the rate at which cases are increasing.
The UK's current growth rate is between 2 and 7 percent, according to government figures last Friday.
If virus cases doubled every day, the growth rate would be just over 10 percent. Officials could be expecting the growth rate to rise – as it has for the past few weeks – but that was not explained at yesterday's meeting.
Mark Woolhouse, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said: & # 39; The proposal of potential 50,000 new cases per day mentioned in today's press conference will inevitably cause consternation as the UK would be high on the list countries of the world affected by COVID-19.
& # 39; Only three countries in the world – India, US, and Brazil – have ever reported more than 50,000 new cases per day (although there will have been significant underreporting in the early stages of the pandemic). Only India currently reports more than 50,000 cases a day.
& # 39; That number of cases in the UK equates to 75 per 100,000 people per day. Israel is currently the worst hit country in the world (excluding Aruba) with 51 cases per 100,000 people per day.
& # 39; Many observers may view this as an implausible scenario. Presumably the UK government intends to illustrate the consequences of continued exponential growth. & # 39;
Professor Paul Hunter, Professor of Medicine at the University of East Anglia's Norwich Medical School, said: “What you presented is the worst case given the current state of the epidemic.
“I think it's pretty implausible that we'll see 50,000 cases a day by mid-October. It is important to remember that they were not making a prediction, but rather presenting an example of what would happen if the cases continued to double, which they almost certainly will not. & # 39;
He said that the growth of an outbreak tends to slow down as it approaches its climax, adding: "I wouldn't be surprised if we followed France and Spain's development over the next few weeks – it is entirely plausible that we would 10,000 would see cases each day through mid-October. & # 39;
Professor Karol Sikora, cancer doctor and former director of the World Health Organization, told MailOnline that it was "unlikely that we will have 50,000 infections by mid-October".
& # 39; The other possibility is that there will only be 5,000 cases a day. Do we really need a two week lockdown to prevent this from happening? I don't think we will. & # 39;
He added: 'You are so negative. The graph for the worst-case scenario for 50,000 cases per day until the next month only scares people. & # 39;
Dr. Michael Head, Senior Research Fellow on Global Health at the University of Southampton, said the 50,000 a day figure is a "worst case scenario".
He added, “The modeling must calculate the best, worst, and most likely scenarios in order for different plans to be implemented. Cases at this level are very unlikely to occur as interventions are put in place to limit the spread of the virus, such as: B. regional locks. & # 39;
Scientists indicated that restrictions imposed in recent weeks, including the "Rule of Six" and local lockdowns, would curb the outbreak's growth and lower the rate of infection.
Dr. Flavio Toxvaerd, a professor in the Faculty of Economics at Cambridge University who specializes in infectious disease economics and economic epidemiology, said: "These predictions are often based on behavioral assumptions that are unlikely to be confirmed in practice. The projections are hindsight often too gloomy.
“Most epidemiologists are not trained in analyzing human behavior, a key to understanding the spread of diseases like COVID-19. They therefore model disease dynamics by essentially guessing how people will react to different policy measures.
& # 39; The worst-case scenarios presented in the graphics assume that people do nothing at all to protect themselves. Most epidemiologists agree that this is highly unlikely. In practice, it is expected that people will protect themselves and thereby contain the epidemic somewhat. & # 39;
Professor Whitty (right, Vallance left) appealed to the public's selflessness to abide by the rules and not just assume that they could "take their own risk".
Robert Dingwall, a professor in the School of Social Sciences at Nottingham Trent University, pointed out that models of disease progression that ministers led during the pandemic are "only as good as the data at the time and the assumptions made".
He told MailOnline, "I'm not a model builder, but I know the modeling community has concerns about the extent to which the government is being influenced by these worst-case scenarios."
All models are a simplification of reality because they make different assumptions. Beispielsweise kann ein Modell nach heutigem Kenntnisstand davon ausgehen, dass die Mehrheit der Personen, die das Coronavirus tragen, Symptome zeigt. In Wahrheit ist jedoch immer noch nicht klar, wie viele Symptome der Krankheit zeigen und wie viele „stille Träger“ sind.
Eines der frühesten und wohl einflussreichsten Modelle der Pandemie war das des Imperial College London, das im März warnte, dass 500.000 Briten an Coronavirus sterben könnten, wenn keine Maßnahmen ergriffen würden.
Es wird davon ausgegangen, dass die von Professor Neil Ferguson geleiteten Arbeiten eine Woche später im Alleingang die nationale Sperrung ausgelöst und eine dramatische Änderung im Umgang der Regierung mit dem Ausbruch ausgelöst haben, als sie von der Herdenimmunität zu einer Sperrung übergingen.
Seitdem wurde die Arbeit von Professor Ferguson jedoch von anderen Experten als „völlig unzuverlässig“ beschrieben.
David Richards, Mitbegründer des britischen Datentechnologieunternehmens WANdisco, sagte, das Modell sei ein "Buggy-Durcheinander, das eher wie eine Schüssel mit Engelshaar-Nudeln aussieht als wie ein fein abgestimmtes Programm", berichtete The Telegraph.
Presenting a heat map of the UK, Professor Whitty warned that coronavirus cases are now increasing across the UK rather than just a few areas.
"It's not someone else's problem, it's all our problem," warned the chief doctor.
He explained, “What we have seen is a development where … there were very small breakouts first, possibly related to a workplace or other environment, then we saw more localized breakouts that occurred over time Cities have become bigger.
“And now we are seeing a rate of increase in the vast majority of the country. It's moving at different speeds, but it's increasing now. & # 39;
Nigel Marriott, ein unabhängiger Statistiker, behauptete, dass sich die Fälle zwar in Teilen des Nordens verdoppelten, in einigen Regionen des Südens jedoch tatsächlich zurückgingen.
Er fügte hinzu: "Diese regionale Ungleichheit macht es schwierig, das nationale Bild zu interpretieren, und es legt nahe, dass das Ziel darin bestehen sollte, die Nordwelle so schnell wie möglich zu stoppen, bevor sie sich nach Süden ausbreiten kann."
Die Daten von Public Health England vom Freitag zeigen auch, dass die Infektionen in 43 von 149 Gebieten tatsächlich zurückgingen oder stagnierten – 29 Prozent.
In der Zwischenzeit wurde die Alarmstufe für Covid-19 in Großbritannien gestern Abend von drei auf vier erhöht, als Regierungsberater davor warnten, dass die Virusfälle wahrscheinlich "exponentiell" zunehmen.
Die Entscheidung wurde von den vier leitenden Ärzten des Landes getroffen, die die Öffentlichkeit aufforderten, grundlegende Hygiene- und soziale Distanzierungspraktiken zu befolgen, um „erhebliche übermäßige Todesfälle“ zu vermeiden.
Gesundheitsminister Matt Hancock sagte: "Dieses Land steht jetzt vor einem Wendepunkt in seiner Reaktion und es ist wichtig, dass jetzt jeder seinen Teil dazu beiträgt, die Ausbreitung des Virus zu stoppen und Leben zu schützen." Es folgte eine seltene Fernsehansprache von Sir Patrick und Professor Chris Whitty, dem Chief Medical Officer für England.
Professor Whitty appellierte an die Selbstlosigkeit der Öffentlichkeit, sich an die Regeln zu halten und nicht nur davon auszugehen, dass sie "ihr eigenes Risiko eingehen" könnten.
Er sagte: „Das Problem bei einer Pandemie oder einer solchen Infektion ist, dass ich als Einzelperson mein Risiko erhöhe, das Risiko für alle um mich herum und für alle, die Kontakt zu ihnen haben.
"Früher oder später wird die Kette zu Menschen führen, die schutzbedürftig oder älter sind oder ein langfristiges Problem mit Covid haben." Trotz des düsteren Tons des Briefings sagte Sir Patrick, es bestehe die Möglichkeit, dass bis Ende des Jahres ein Impfstoff verfügbar sein könnte.
(tagsToTranslate) Dailymail (t) Nachrichten (t) Coronavirus (t) Michael Gove (t) Boris Johnson