The corona virus pandemic in the United States could be over in mid-November, as new models have shown.
Researchers at the Singapore University of Technology and Design have created a complex model that predicts the exact end of the pandemic in the United States, the United Kingdom, and other countries around the world.
According to the data, the US is well on the way to being free of coronavirus by November 11, while the UK may see an earlier end date on September 30.
The model predicts the evolution of the virus over time, while tracking the actual number of new confirmed cases per day in a given country from May 12th.
Predictive modeling by the Singapore University of Technology and Design estimates that the U.S. coronavirus crisis could end by November 11
The United States has the world's highest number of coronavirus cases with a peak of 1.6 million on Saturday and 95,979 deaths
However, the researchers found that predictions are likely to be inherently uncertain due to the complexity of the virus as well as other factors, including country restrictions and test protocols.
In the United States, changes in forecasts over a period of one week have been tracked and found to be relatively stable, indicating a "long time to theoretical end".
"The estimated US curves for a week together are highly stable, while additional guidelines or measures may be required to further shorten the curves' tails," the report said.
The study also found that predictive surveillance in early May showed that the United States – and the second most affected country, Brazil – could suffer for the rest of the year without stricter restrictions or a vaccine.
For Italy, which was once the world leader in the number of coronavirus cases, the situation could recover from May 8 to October 24, according to the modeling.
However, scientists find that the predictions are only estimates and can change depending on various factors.
& # 39; The model and data do not reflect the complex, evolving and heterogeneous realities of different countries over time. Predictions are inherently uncertain, ”the report said.
"Over-optimism based on some predictions is dangerous because it loosens our disciplines and controls and can and must prevent and prevent the turnaround of the virus and infection."
As of Saturday, there are 1,600,937 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 95,979 deaths in the United States.
It is because all 50 states have started to gradually reopen and relax the restrictions after months of blocking.
However, experts and health officials have since warned that loosening the restrictions too early could in some cases lead to an increase.
Earlier this month, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, another wave of the virus is "inevitable".
The model predicts that the pandemic in the UK will be over by September 30th
From May 8, the coronavirus pandemic in Italy was on the right track until October 24
Dr. Fauci said that reopening cities and states too quickly could trigger an outbreak that would get out of control and reverse efforts to combat the corona virus.
"You will trigger an outbreak that you may not be able to control," he warned in his testimony to the Senate.
Despite widespread testing and social distance measures, health authorities have warned that there is no guarantee until a vaccine is developed.
In his testimony to the Senate's Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, Fauci said that scientists are already testing possible vaccines in a phase 1 clinical trial to enter the second phase this summer.
"If we are successful, we hope to know that in late autumn and early winter," he said.
He also said that there were at least eight vaccines in clinical development.
He warned that the tests could have negative consequences, including patient death.
"I have to warn that there is also the possibility of negative consequences if certain vaccines can actually increase the negative effects of the infection," he said.
He also warned when the states began to open again – thus withdrawing orders for home stays and social distancing – "you will see some cases emerge again."
"There is no doubt that even in the best of circumstances, if you withdraw the damage limitation, there will be some cases," warned Fauci, adding that the US must be prepared for "when the inevitable return of infections occurs".
"We'll see little spikes that can lead to breakouts," he noted.