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2020 US Election: Did the Polls Get It Wrong Again?


Initial results from several major battlefield nations show that the majority of pollsters massively underestimated the weight of support for President Donald Trump in the run-up to the elections, suggesting that the "hidden Trump vote" could play a role again in the presidential election.

Fox News host Tucker Carlson predicted it would be the second straight election that the mainstream media got it wrong. 'How do we screw it up? We actually lied to people, ”he said on the air Tuesday evening. & # 39; How did that happen? & # 39;

He highlighted the widely suggested prospect by political observers that many Trump voters are afraid to share their voting preferences with pollsters.

& # 39; The most fundamental question the polls raise: is this a free country? If you're scared of voicing a political opinion in public – you might get fired for it, banned for it – is that a free society? The answer is of course not, ”said Carlson.

A Morning Consult poll on Monday found that Biden leads Trump in five battlefield states

The most recent pre-election polls by Quinnipiac, Reuters / Ipsos and CNBC / Change showed that Biden was at the top in Florida with 5, 4 and 3 points, suggesting the Democrat would take over the key state.

Some polls, conducted just last month, showed that Biden is a double-digit leader in Florida. With at least 96 percent of Florida reports, Trump led Biden at 51.3 to 47.8 percent, and the state was declared Trump late on Tuesday.

Ohio was called to Trump early Wednesday with 90 percent of the reported vote, showing the Republican leading 53.3 percent to 45.2 percent. The top pollster Quinnipiac had shown Biden on Monday in Ohio with a 47 to 43 percent lead.

And the latest Emmerson and Quinnipiac polls also showed Texas is an argument between Trump and Biden, increasing the prospect of a Democratic landslide if the historically red state tips. With 91 percent of the reported votes, Trump was in the lead in the Lone Star state with six points ahead of 52.3 percent to 46.2 percent.

Across the country, battlefield states such as North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin also showed that Trump is leading by partial results, increasing the chances of a flawed poll showing these states leaning towards Biden.

Carlson said the "obvious lesson" is that the media got it wrong.

“At some point we, the media, have to pause and ask ourselves serious questions about how we think about what's going to happen and how we're going to present it because our predictions affect the results to some extent, and of course they do too. determine our credibility. People judge us by our predictions, ”Carlson said.

"Something really went wrong as we predicted some of these races," he said.

On the flip side, polls showing Biden is a leader in Arizona appeared to be confirmed on election day after Fox News phoned the state for the Democrat with about three-quarters of the votes counted.

The final election forecast on data journalist Nate Silver's 538 website Tuesday morning gave Biden an 89 percent chance of winning the election – although a landslide hadn't yet occurred in Biden by midnight.

For Biden's boosters, the early returns raised the dire prospect of a repeat of 2016 when polls showed a towering lead for Democrat Hillary Clinton, which the vote failed to produce.

"There's more (shy Trump voters) than last time, and it's not even a competition," Trafalgar analyst Robert Cahaly (pictured) told The Hill

Among those who suggest Trump's prospects are being underestimated is Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group, one of the few bipartisan outlets that predicted a Republican victory in 2016 after finding Trump in major battlefield states Michigan and Pennsylvania led the way.

This year, Trafalgar's analysis in the final days before the elections again found a small head start for Trump in both states, contradicting almost every other major poll.

The electoral industry was embarrassed in the last presidential election after forecasts severely underestimated Trump's chances of winning.

Cahaly said it was "quite possible" that this will also happen in 2020 as a hidden Trump vote was overlooked.

"There's more (shy Trump voters) than last time and it's not even a competition," Cahaly told The Hill on Monday.

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden visits the Warehouse for Teenagers from Teenagers in Wilmington, Delaware on Election Day

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden visits the Warehouse for Teenagers from Teenagers in Wilmington, Delaware on Election Day

Susquehanna Polling and Research has also promoted the hidden Trump voter theory as the recent poll dwarfed Trump and Biden in Wisconsin, giving the Florida president a four point lead.

"There are many voters who do not want to admit that they are voting for a man who has been labeled a racist," Susquehanna analyst Jim Lee told WFMZ this week.

& # 39; This submerged Trump factor is very real. We got hold of it and I'm really disappointed that others haven't. & # 39;

But many pollsters have dismissed the idea of ​​Trump voters hiding, in part by denying the reliability of Trafalgar's electoral methods.

"(Trafalgar) doesn't disclose their 'proprietary digital methods' so I can't really evaluate what they do," Jon McHenry, a Republican pollster with North Star Opinion Research, told The Hill.

"They are far enough away that in a year we will all remember whether they were very right or very wrong."

President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence stand on the stage after a rally at Gerald R. Ford International Airport early Tuesday in Grand Rapids, Michigan

President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence stand on the stage after a rally at Gerald R. Ford International Airport early Tuesday in Grand Rapids, Michigan

McHenry said he thought Trump voters would be unlikely to lie about their voting plans if approached by pollsters, but acknowledged that data could be skewed if Trump voters were less likely to take polls overall.

He said, however, that this type of "skewed response pattern" would not necessarily lead to worse projections for Trump.

He cited Pennsylvania as an example of a state where Democrats are less likely to speak to pollers than Republicans, meaning they may be underrepresented in results.

McHenry said that although he cannot rule out a bias in the response, he is "skeptical".

"It would certainly not be enough to explain the national deficits that we are seeing," said McHenry.

(tagsToTranslate) Dailymail (t) news (t) Florida (t) US election 2020 (t) North Carolina (t) Joe Biden (t) Donald Trump (t) US swing states (t) US election polls (t ) Wisconsin (t) Michigan